When should Foster go?
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@Higgins said in When should Foster go?:
It was worse losing to Argentina - that was the first time in over 120years (EVER)
And we lost to Ireland for the first time ever under Hansen. Ireland have never made the RWC Semis. Argentina have been in the RWC semis twice.
Which was the worst result?
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@antipodean said in When should Foster go?:
Burn the heretic!
Sir, I refer you to the public clamour a few years back to play Christian Cullen at 13 ...
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@taniwharugby said in When should Foster go?:
Almost 10% of our 179 passes went to Caleb (14) I think the expectation was he'd bust a hole and we'd do the business from there, but he didnt....while he made 1 clean break and beat 4 defenders, IIRC they were cleaned up pretty quickly, Argies knew he was a threat and shut him down.
This. Classic example of a team not being able to think on their feet or switch to plan B.
Whose fault is that? The players, the coach, players/coach relationships or team culture?
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@Higgins said in When should Foster go?:
@Victor-Meldrew said in When should Foster go?:
@Machpants said in When should Foster go?:
Cool, one more game and he's gone
For some reason, I thought we were playing Italy & Wales in late-Winter (NZ).
Probably best you're right. Don't think I could hack the thought of losing to Italy & Wales (for the first time in 70 years..)
It was worse losing to Argentina - that was the first time in over 120years (EVER)
A bit much to suggest 120 years when the first match was in 1976 and the first recognised test in 1985 😳
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The thing is Steve Hansen had a dreadful record before he coached the All Blacks. He had a decent record with Canterbury, was poor with Wales and had never coached at Super Rugby level. When Hansen was appointed, plenty of people on here were aghast. He simply hadn't had the success to earn himself the position. The difference with Hansen was the players he had in his squad in 2012 were still a big part of what had been successful under Henry. Hansen didn't have to adapt from the start.
Foster is a different kettle of fish. We need to change how we play. If you want change in an organisation you hire externally. If you want continuity you hire internally. The big mistake is that the loss to England and other performances were written off as aberrations, when they were indicative of a trend.
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@Victor-Meldrew said in When should Foster go?:
@broughie said in When should Foster go?:
@Victor-Meldrew no I don’t think so. First I think we all knew that Foster was not up for the job. Second I think we would give any new fella more grace because he has not been part of the system for the past 8 years plus.
If we are going to judge Foster on 5 games as he's been there for 8 years, then I guess we need to give him credit for all the good stuff in those 8 years as well.
The problem is - of those 8 years - the most recent 4 years was not real flash.
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@KiwiMurph said in When should Foster go?:
@Victor-Meldrew said in When should Foster go?:
@broughie said in When should Foster go?:
@Victor-Meldrew no I don’t think so. First I think we all knew that Foster was not up for the job. Second I think we would give any new fella more grace because he has not been part of the system for the past 8 years plus.
If we are going to judge Foster on 5 games as he's been there for 8 years, then I guess we need to give him credit for all the good stuff in those 8 years as well.
The problem is - of those 8 years - the most recent 4 years was not real flash.
Totally agree. The cracks have been there for some time and I don't think that's all down to Foster. I think it's going to take more than 5 games to turn things around.
The question for me is Foster the one to do that and is it too early to say?
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Well, John Hart is backing Foster.
Former ABs coach reveals team 'issues': Why players are to blame, not Foster
All Blacks legend points the finger at the players rather than under-fire Ian Foster.
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@KiwiMurph said in When should Foster go?:
@Victor-Meldrew said in When should Foster go?:
@broughie said in When should Foster go?:
@Victor-Meldrew no I don’t think so. First I think we all knew that Foster was not up for the job. Second I think we would give any new fella more grace because he has not been part of the system for the past 8 years plus.
If we are going to judge Foster on 5 games as he's been there for 8 years, then I guess we need to give him credit for all the good stuff in those 8 years as well.
The problem is - of those 8 years - the most recent 4 years was not real flash.
That's not really fair though. If we look at 2016-2019, our losses were:
- vs Ireland, Soldier Field
- vs Lions, Westpac
- vs Australia, Brisbane
- vs South Africa, Westpac
- vs Ireland, Dublin
- vs Australia, Perth
- vs England, Tokyo
With 2 draws in there as well. Between 2012-2015 we had 3 losses and 2 draws. Between 2008 and 2011 we lost 9 times and 2004-2007 there were 6 losses. So it is fair to say we did regress over the last world cup cycle but we regressed from a strong position. 7 losses and 2 draws is still a very good effort for a cycle. Let's not forget that two of those losses were red cards, the losses at Soldier Field and vs South Africa at Westpac were avenged. We should have beaten the Irish in Dublin but blew a number of second half opportunities. The only game we really lost and got blown out of the water was the World Cup semi and the game at Soldier Field.
I think that All Black team is getting recognised for what it didn't achieve (lost Lions series for only second time in history, loss at home for first time in 8 years, first losses to Ireland) and not what it did achieve. We thrashed Ireland in the quarters, retained Bledisloe Cup, undefeated in the Republic, 3x Rugby Championship etc.
I think it's about recognising that the last four years were actually a very good period for us. It's just that what made us good over that period isn't going to be applicable for the next four years.
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@Donsteppa said in When should Foster go?:
Well, John Hart is backing Foster.
Former ABs coach reveals team 'issues': Why players are to blame, not Foster
All Blacks legend points the finger at the players rather than under-fire Ian Foster.
Oh well I'm sold
Does fozzie look good in a turtle neck?
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@hydro11 I also think you have to factor in context and how rubbish The Rugby Championship was from 2016-17.
Boks had a coach so far out his depth it wasn't funny those 2 years and Wallabies were decimated with retirements/exodus after 2015 World Cup + it became clear Cheika was a good short term coach but not built for the long haul (he even admitted he didn't believe in analysing opponent!). Argentina also regressed after 2015 RWC and canned their coach in 2018.
The difference between the 2017 Lions series and the 2016-17 The Rugby Championship was enormous in terms of a change of intensity - it was like tier one vs tier two stuff.
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One of those wins v England was a bee's dick from being a loss
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@mariner4life same with Pretoria 2018 v Rassie's Boks. Were down 30-13 in the second half and down 30-18 after 75 minutes.
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@taniwharugby said in When should Foster go?:
@Crazy-Horse think the difference is DC was able to adapt and react a bit quicker than most mortals
DC had a decent left boot that he could use to turn the opposition around and get their forward going backwards when his forward pack couldn't do that for him. He was also very robust, so that when he struggled with ball in hand he was still able to have an impact on D. He was also a leader capable of influencing a match in less obvious ways. Let's be honest here, he hardly got an armchair ride in the 2015 semi, yet he managed come up with crucial plays when the opportunity presented itself. Same as in the 2015 final, when Oz were getting close and had all the momentum, he had the ability to kick a 45m drop goal off the cuff and completely wrestle momentum back off them. No doubt he was a special player, but these aren't examples of freakish play that only he could do. It's about having the initiative and game sense to execute a basic skill - a punt or drop kick - that is going to have significant impact. RM just doesn't appear to have that. He seems to only be able to do the sublime or nothing at all.
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@taniwharugby said in When should Foster go?:
@broughie possibly, although it isnt like it was a secret Hansen was leaving either and the job would be up post RWC.
I guess for Rennie, he knew he wouldnt be the only candidate from outside the cool kids club, so maybe he had looked at who he might be up against, plus the history of internal succession, and though safe option was to take the Aus job on offer instead of waiting for the AB job to come up, that he mightnt get (similarly Joseph, Schmidt was always an outside shot given he had said he wasnt applying)
Wasnt it also only 6 months earlier Robertson had said he wasnt sure he was ready for it (or was that 2018?)
Timing was very important too. The NZRU's decision to delay the appointment process until after the RWC, was probably a bit misguided (even if it did make some sense to delay the actual appointment until that time). All this did was give all of our major rivals a jump start on our best candidates and, seemingly, forced the hands of guys like Rennie and Joseph to take the offers in hand (and who could blame them).
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@mariner4life said in When should Foster go?:
Of course, this thinking ignored the two years of rugby that came before it, but hey, organisations used to success have blindspots.
I suspect this is the real issue - when the trophy cabinet is full and you're making money, saying "yes, more of the same is easy".
The reality was that the world was catching up to the All Blacks, the NZRFU assumed everyone would want to apply for the AB's role even when they were publicly withdrawing and there were major issues within SANZAAR pre-COVID-19.
The NZRFU have arguably handled the SANZAAR negotiations poorly - while I don't think they could have stopped South Africa taking the path they have, the 2020 Tri Nations being played in Australia appeared to be the NZRFU failing to agree with the NZ government before handing the tournament to Australia and now the 2021 Super Rugby competition is 5 NZ teams vs 5 Australian teams, again what appears to be a victory for Australian rugby although it will depend on final revenue sharing to tell for certain.
For comparison, it's interesting reading about some of the struggles Eddie Jones has had with the RFU - creating a strong team in a weak or flawed organisation is hard.
None of this is intended to support Foster remaining as head coach, just that there are larger issues to solve if NZ rugby wants to continue to be successful.
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@mariner4life said in When should Foster go?:
Oh well I'm sold
Does fozzie look good in a turtle neck?
So histories repeating? And we will be knocked out in RWC by France in the semi's and Foster will be replaced by Xavier Rush/Aaron Mauger?
Or maybe I need a new crystal ball. This one appears to be cracked...
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@PecoTrain said in When should Foster go?:
@mariner4life said in When should Foster go?:
Oh well I'm sold
Does fozzie look good in a turtle neck?
So histories repeating? And we will be knocked out in RWC by France in the semi's and Foster will be replaced by Xavier Rush/Aaron Mauger?
Or maybe I need a new crystal ball. This one appears to be cracked...
Razor and Rangi, you heard it here first.
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Other than Fozzie resigning I think the NZR have to let him see out his contract. They already showed limited confidence in him giving him a 2year contract, but if you fire him after 2 losses (hopefully only 2) what kind of message are you sending to the next coaches. If it makes people feel any better Rassie was looking down the barrel of a gun and about to resign after 2 straight losses but then beat ABs in NZ and started to turn the ship around.
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Oh yeah, so our "soak" defence. Seems to be a lot tied into scenarios we actively try to avoid on attack also.
It appears what they're trying to do is isolate players, usually in behind the advantage line where it takes that split second longer for the attack to get there and secure ball and gives anyone "cycling around" in behind the D line a chance to get in and disrupt. The problem with it being that our defence accuracy just isn't good enough to be working that structure well enough and when it's off, as it has been most of the time for us, it is disastrous and leads to a lot of scramble and therefore a defence easily worked around and easily tired. I noticed in the weekend there looked to be a lot of 2nd man tacklers coming in late on a tackle too, which combined with the poor accuracy then leads to gaps 1 or 2 out that are easily exploited off quick ruck ball and/or offloads. We are being saved a lot of blushes by our scrambling defence which is phenomenal.
So on that note - our attack constantly trying to run into tackles and take as many defenders with them as possible, seems to be aimed to save us from the situation above which leads to isolated attacking players (and also tiring out defenders to create space for our Moungas/Clarkes/ALBs/BBs) - it is kind of working, but again a lack of accuracy and venom is leading to us turning it over and/or choosing really poor options due to being on the back foot.
That's my take anyway. I can see what I think they're trying to do, but it's just not sticking with the players and perhaps they are losing faith and shape. If it comes right, then we could see that "evolution" that we're all asking for, but it's a long way from being right and surely we have to be able to change gears.
