RWC Final: All Blacks v Springboks
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@tubbyj said in RWC Final: All Blacks v Springboks:
SA should be massive favourites.
RWC finals are always tight nervy affairs. SA has given 2 masterclasses in a row on how to win such games. NZ has just given masterclasses on how to give away yellow cards in such situations.
NZ even in its knockout wins have struggled to exit their own 22. The clearing kickers are all only capable of kicking short distances and are more prone to skewing it off the side of the boot. More often NZ win the lineout on their own 22 then kick it out 2 metres further down field from where they won it. SA has consistently cleared it up to the halfway line
Last game we struggled to repel the Boks mauls and scrum. We are likely to pick a very inexperienced reserve front row again.
Mark Telea was exposed against the Argentines as being average under the high ball. No way Rassie Erasmus has not noted this.
SA have more veterans likely to be in their last RWC and probably likely to retire straight after. They will be more incentivized to send these players out as winners.
SA players have more experience playing under NH refs with their players exposed to them in the URC. NZ is more likely to run foul of their interpretations.
The neutrals despite what they will claim will want SA to win. The Irish will be obsessed with seeing NZ punished for beating them, the English will want the Saffers to win so they can believe they were a whisker from winning the whole thing and the Welsh and Scottish will see more sport in winding up NZ fans after a loss. French, Argentinian and Italian fans will probably support NZ but it will be lost in translation.
Finally Rassie Erasmus is a proven RWC winning coach. Ian Foster couldn't even win a Super rugby title, Joe Schmidt couldn't get the Irish past the quarterfinals and Jason Ryan is still finding his feet at International level.
Do they ?
We have Coles, Taylor, Whitelock, Cane, Smith, B Barrett……..plus maybe some others ?
I don’t really follow ABs on social media like others so forgive me if I’m wrong on some of these.
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@Bovidae said in RWC Final: All Blacks v Springboks:
@frugby said in RWC Final: All Blacks v Springboks:
I'd actually like to see them dip outside of what they have already used with the Georgian boy, but we will see. Is he even still there?
It looked like him running the water for O'Keeffe. Honestly, I don't care who refs that game as I have no interest.
As to the AB team, I think Laulala for Newell is more likely than Tuʻungafasi for Williams if a change is made. The same starting forward pack as for Ireland.
Agree r.e the referee, particularly for 3v4. Barnes will do the ABs, I'd be stunned if he doesn't.
Can't see Jase Ryan dropping any of the props... Lomax and Newell have been more or less the preferred pairing when fit and available from the moment he came into the job. I think if (and they won't be) worried about the scrum, then I'm not sure picking Nepo who increases the likelihood of scrums, is actually the money selection anyway.
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@MN5 said in RWC Final: All Blacks v Springboks:
@tubbyj said in RWC Final: All Blacks v Springboks:
SA should be massive favourites.
RWC finals are always tight nervy affairs. SA has given 2 masterclasses in a row on how to win such games. NZ has just given masterclasses on how to give away yellow cards in such situations.
NZ even in its knockout wins have struggled to exit their own 22. The clearing kickers are all only capable of kicking short distances and are more prone to skewing it off the side of the boot. More often NZ win the lineout on their own 22 then kick it out 2 metres further down field from where they won it. SA has consistently cleared it up to the halfway line
Last game we struggled to repel the Boks mauls and scrum. We are likely to pick a very inexperienced reserve front row again.
Mark Telea was exposed against the Argentines as being average under the high ball. No way Rassie Erasmus has not noted this.
SA have more veterans likely to be in their last RWC and probably likely to retire straight after. They will be more incentivized to send these players out as winners.
SA players have more experience playing under NH refs with their players exposed to them in the URC. NZ is more likely to run foul of their interpretations.
The neutrals despite what they will claim will want SA to win. The Irish will be obsessed with seeing NZ punished for beating them, the English will want the Saffers to win so they can believe they were a whisker from winning the whole thing and the Welsh and Scottish will see more sport in winding up NZ fans after a loss. French, Argentinian and Italian fans will probably support NZ but it will be lost in translation.
Finally Rassie Erasmus is a proven RWC winning coach. Ian Foster couldn't even win a Super rugby title, Joe Schmidt couldn't get the Irish past the quarterfinals and Jason Ryan is still finding his feet at International level.
Do they ?
We have Coles, Taylor, Whitelock, Cane, Smith, B Barrett……..plus maybe some others ?
I don’t really follow ABs on social media like others so forgive me if I’m wrong on some of these.
Of those mentioned, Taylor and Cane are signed until 2025, Whitelock is going to France, Smith to Japan until 2026 and Barrett the same until 2025, and he still seems keen on a return after that.
Of that group, Coles is the only one flat out retiring, and Whitelock is the only other nailed on to never play for the ABs ever again.
With how fit he is, I really wouldn't count out Aaron Smith coming back to New Zealand in 2027... whether he cracks the ABs will be purely dependent on whether we have established three good halfbacks, which I think we will definitely have two by that stage.
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@frugby said in RWC Final: All Blacks v Springboks:
@MN5 said in RWC Final: All Blacks v Springboks:
@tubbyj said in RWC Final: All Blacks v Springboks:
SA should be massive favourites.
RWC finals are always tight nervy affairs. SA has given 2 masterclasses in a row on how to win such games. NZ has just given masterclasses on how to give away yellow cards in such situations.
NZ even in its knockout wins have struggled to exit their own 22. The clearing kickers are all only capable of kicking short distances and are more prone to skewing it off the side of the boot. More often NZ win the lineout on their own 22 then kick it out 2 metres further down field from where they won it. SA has consistently cleared it up to the halfway line
Last game we struggled to repel the Boks mauls and scrum. We are likely to pick a very inexperienced reserve front row again.
Mark Telea was exposed against the Argentines as being average under the high ball. No way Rassie Erasmus has not noted this.
SA have more veterans likely to be in their last RWC and probably likely to retire straight after. They will be more incentivized to send these players out as winners.
SA players have more experience playing under NH refs with their players exposed to them in the URC. NZ is more likely to run foul of their interpretations.
The neutrals despite what they will claim will want SA to win. The Irish will be obsessed with seeing NZ punished for beating them, the English will want the Saffers to win so they can believe they were a whisker from winning the whole thing and the Welsh and Scottish will see more sport in winding up NZ fans after a loss. French, Argentinian and Italian fans will probably support NZ but it will be lost in translation.
Finally Rassie Erasmus is a proven RWC winning coach. Ian Foster couldn't even win a Super rugby title, Joe Schmidt couldn't get the Irish past the quarterfinals and Jason Ryan is still finding his feet at International level.
Do they ?
We have Coles, Taylor, Whitelock, Cane, Smith, B Barrett……..plus maybe some others ?
I don’t really follow ABs on social media like others so forgive me if I’m wrong on some of these.
Of those mentioned, Taylor and Cane are signed until 2025, Whitelock is going to France, Smith to Japan until 2026 and Barrett the same until 2025, and he still seems keen on a return after that.
Of that group, Coles is the only one flat out retiring, and Whitelock is the only other nailed on to never play for the ABs ever again.
With how fit he is, I really wouldn't count out Aaron Smith coming back to New Zealand in 2027... whether he cracks the ABs will be purely dependent on whether we have established three good halfbacks, which I think we will definitely have two by that stage.
Fair enough, I stand corrected. A quick google indicates some of these guys aren’t actually as old as I thought.
Smith may do a Nonu and still be awesome despite technically retiring from internationals.
I can’t see Cane going on much longer but he’s having something of a renaissance as is Taylor.
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@MN5 I expect Cane to hang around for two years to attempt to play 100 tests, and then will likely go cash in over in Japan for a year or two and then will call it a day... he may even pull the plug altogether in 2025, the man's body must be cooked!
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@george33 said in RWC Final: All Blacks v Springboks:
I can C Cane playing in Japan this time next year
Considering he is signed until 2025, I find that highly improbable. He wants to play 100 tests, and will be 94 going into next year. I think as long as he displays solid form in Super Rugby, he will be allowed the chance to do that.
Ardie will be eased back in + there is no obvious no. 8 that will see him squeezed out of the picture, that he doesn't get there barring injury.
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@frugby said in RWC Final: All Blacks v Springboks:
@george33 said in RWC Final: All Blacks v Springboks:
I can C Cane playing in Japan this time next year
Considering he is signed until 2025, I find that highly improbable. He wants to play 100 tests, and will be 94 going into next year. I think as long as he displays solid form in Super Rugby, he will be allowed the chance to do that.
Ardie will be eased back in + there is no obvious no. 8 that will see him squeezed out of the picture, that he doesn't get there barring injury.
Surely Robertson will fill the loose forwards with Canterbury players like Cullen Grace and the immortal Ethan Blackadder. Cane might have no where to go.
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Just looking at signs and trends and all that shit...and perhaps a healthy dose of reaching, but I don't think any side that has knocked England out of the RWC has ever won it. Let's hope that continues 🙏
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@Rancid-Schnitzel said in RWC Final: All Blacks v Springboks:
Just looking at signs and trends and all that shit...and perhaps a healthy dose of reaching, but I don't think any side that has knocked England out of the RWC has ever won it. Let's hope that continues 🙏
Could be a Foster first.
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This whole thing is surreal
Perhaps Foz is the master of a parallel universe -
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@Machpants said in RWC Final: All Blacks v Springboks:
@voodoo said in RWC Final: All Blacks v Springboks:
Odd odds
So they think we will win it in regulation time but if it goes to extra time/penalties it balances out?
They would need to actually be heavily favoured to win in ET/Pens to balance it out right?
As @Smudge said, probably looks like a mistake or a rort
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@voodoo said in RWC Final: All Blacks v Springboks:
@Machpants said in RWC Final: All Blacks v Springboks:
@voodoo said in RWC Final: All Blacks v Springboks:
Odd odds
So they think we will win it in regulation time but if it goes to extra time/penalties it balances out?
They would need to actually be heavily favoured to win in ET/Pens to balance it out right?
As @Smudge said, probably looks like a mistake or a rort
Just poor algorithm on the thing that puts it together, I reckon, it is from 24 markets
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If it is allowed to be played with extra breaks and 15 subs (SA head knock rotation policy) then I personally think the old foe gets up.
However if it is allowed to flow and the above policed then I think we have them, even in the wet, assuming we play like the last 2 games.
Apart from our exits we have turned a corner in other areas that were a worry.
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It’s going to be rainy in Paris all week.
