All Blacks v BI Lions Test #2
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The southerly at Athletic Park was always an absolute killer. With that in mind, why oh why did the not put a lid on the Cake Tin.
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@booboo said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #2:
Long term forecast ...
http://www.metservice.com/towns-cities/wellington/wellington-city#!/ten-day
Rain
Nor'easterlies
13
10Bloody Wellington. You had one job.
Wellington forecasts are good for about 90 minutes after that it's a lottery
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Beauden at 15 probably isn't our most stylish combination, but it might be the most likely to deal competently with the high ball and hence perhaps the most likely to win.
I reckon they will be very, very keen to retain the two fullbacks in the back three combo - which means Israel staying on the wing and either Beaudy or Jordie (or DMac?) at 15 - assuming Ben Smith won't be.
I can't really see the logic of releasing players to the Canes if they're planning to use them on Saturday. The homework has surely already been done? And in the cases of Jordie and Laumape, every day spent in the AB environment running with the team would be hugely valuable if they're likely to make an appearance on Saturday.
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From all that Gatland and the players have said post-1st Test we have to assume that outside of injury and someone 'walking on water' versus the Hurricanes pretty much the same 23 will be involved for the 2nd Test.
They believe they have the right personnel, and with more precision and better execution the right tactics to beat the ABs .
I'm happy with any of the front row combinations starting and Sinckler may be the only change.
Interestingly Kruis is on the bench against the Hurricanes. Are they looking at how he performs as an impact player? Is AWJ injured? A cert?
Is Lawes starting just to show he's ready for Saturday?
I think Gatland will choose Lawes and Itoje with AWJ on the bench. Well that's what I'm hoping
Our back row was pretty ineffectual at the breakdown so does Warburton go to 6 instead of O'Mahoney? If that's the case, then I'd have Tipuric on the bench.
If Gatland feels that our back row will improve after a week of training, then we'll see the same starters with Warburton on the bench.
Murray and Sexton were locked in prior to the Lions leaving for NZ, and some decent box kicking from Murray aside, neither has set the world on fire, and neither has played to the standard they showed against NZ in Chicago.
Gatland will still start Murray, but I would start Webb. He offers something very different from Murray and will commit Smith and the NZ backrow.
Farrell is our best option at 10. He just needs to play to his ability. If Webb plays inside him he'll have a bit more time and hopefully show us more than the 1st Test.
Te'o and Davies certs.
Williams at 15 cert.
Wings are tricky. Daly was instrumental in the try but got pulled in and outflanked a couple of times. Watson had some nice broken field running but no real penetration.
Outside of Nowell or North scoring a hat-trick against the Hurricanes, Daly and Watson will keep their places.
If Gatland starts Murray, then Webb and Halfpenny on the bench.
And I would select Biggar over Sexton to cover 10.
But as a mate said, unless we win the forward battle and control possession then it's just deckchair arranging on the Titanic.
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I don't want BB at 15. Back to 10. It's then either Dagg to 15 or put huge faith in Jordie Barrett, which would be a massive call.
If Dagg 15 => Naholo please
If JB 15 => Dagg stays 14If Ioane not covering midfield than I'd prefer Goodhue to Laumape.
I think Smith should be given time off to be right for the 4N.
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It shits me that BB even gets moved at all during a game. But if they're going to move him back at a stage of the game when he usually cuts loose then they might as well have him at 15. He's arguably the best back under the high ball in NZ and is an excellent last man defender. In fact the better tactic would be to start him at 15 and then move him to 10 when things open up a bit.
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@No-Quarter H.W. Shortt recreation ground is lovely in a southerly.
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@MiketheSnow I think you're right in that there will be little change. I would like to see Sinckler given the nod to start too. Furlong hasn't been quite at his best the last couple of games. I would still have him over Cole though. Second row is a poser for sure. You'd have to assume that Lawes is fit and if he is in Gatland's thinking it is likely he will get half a game to show that he's firing on all cylinders and then Kruis will get his chance to show that his below par performance on Saturday was an aberration. If so that may be hard for AWJ but I thought he looked off the pace again. Mind you I said that before and he came back with a powerful performance so who knows. I do think that Gatland will want to get Warburton on the field and he will improve the breakdown, but who to drop?
The back line stays the same for me but bring on Webb a bit earlier. If North has a stormer then I'd certainly take him on the bench instead of Halfpenny as I feel he can really add something if he's on form.
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@Bovidae said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #2:
@pakman said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #2:
Can't see BB not starting at 10. Dagg 15. Shag has given Bus a pretty clear indication that if he does the business tomorrow he'll be back at 11 on Saturday. Rieko at 14. If not Naholo in.
I'd keep BB at 1st 5 as well but Hansen's comments in the pressa suggests he could be leaning towards Cruden at 10 and BB at 15. That means Dagg stays on the wing.
Hansen has never been one for sentiment so I don't think the fact that the test is in Welly helps Julian. Naholo is a good chance for the no.14 jersey if Dagg is moved to fullback.
Haven't watched full pressa. Will take another look.
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@Catogrande said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #2:
@MiketheSnow I think you're right in that there will be little change. I would like to see Sinckler given the nod to start too. Furlong hasn't been quite at his best the last couple of games. I would still have him over Cole though. Second row is a poser for sure. You'd have to assume that Lawes is fit and if he is in Gatland's thinking it is likely he will get half a game to show that he's firing on all cylinders and then Kruis will get his chance to show that his below par performance on Saturday was an aberration. If so that may be hard for AWJ but I thought he looked off the pace again. Mind you I said that before and he came back with a powerful performance so who knows. I do think that Gatland will want to get Warburton on the field and he will improve the breakdown, but who to drop?
The back line stays the same for me but bring on Webb a bit earlier. If North has a stormer then I'd certainly take him on the bench instead of Halfpenny as I feel he can really add something if he's on form.
This was a mate's take on what I wrote
"Drop Kruis and AWJ from the squad. Pick Itoje and Lawes with Henderson on the bench.
Drop O'Mahoney from the squad. Pick Warburton with Stander on the bench.
Drop Halfpenny from the squad and put Joseph on the bench.
If Best wins three or more turnovers on the floor in the first 60 minutes tomorrow, pick him too."
Baby and bathwater springs to mind
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@MiketheSnow said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #2:
They believe they have the right personnel, and with more precision and better execution the right tactics to beat the ABs .
... Baby and bathwater springs to mindI'm willing to use one hand to tip the bath to 30-degrees and spill out some of the bathwater, but use the other hand to hold onto the baby
It will be a mistake to set out to do the same thing again with the same people and hoping that more precision/execution will beat the ABs who were dominant for large parts of the game.
12 years is a long time to wonder "What would have happened if ..."
The Lions were at their best when the ball got beyond 12.
So I'd opt for the alternative approach of 2 playmakers with Sexton at 10 and Farrell at 12.
That is tough on Te'O as he made some ground and defended well, but he is not good at getting the outside backs going. Te'O not being in the way of SBW will stress the Lions defence line more so I'd stick with Murray over Webb for 60-65 minutes. Webb does not contribute as much to defence as Murray and Webb is prone to solo-breaks with no support and will lose possession when isolated.I'd take AWJ out of the squad (maybe unfair as he did take a heavy knock before the first try) but he seemed out of touch. If he was injured and has recovered, then he could get in from the start as a lineout-caller. If not, then Lawes and Kruis (again Kruis just ahead of Itoje because of being a lineout-caller).
Then bring Itoje on at 50 min for whichever lock is likely to fade most.
There is a huge clamour for Itoje, but for all his athleticism, he does make rash mistakes and give away penalties.There is talk of swapping POM for Warburton, but I don't think there is a huge difference.
So 2 changes (Lawes for AWJ; Sexton in, Te'O out) + 1 positional (Farrell)
Same front-row;
Lawes and Kruis (or AWJ if he had played on injured)
Same back-row
Murray, Sexton
Farrell, Davies
Same back 3If Stander is going well, I'd put him on the bench instead of Warburton as Stander might be able to make yards when he comes on (but has not done that as well in 2017 as in 2016). Again, that is tough on Warburton, but Stander would offer a difference off the bench.
Tipuric would be a genuinely different option, but Gatland/Howley have not given him much time in a Welsh shirt over the years, so it is too late for a change of heart / game-plan.I'd probably opt for Henderson - like Itoje he gives lock/6 cover.
2 locks on the bench would give the starting pair the scope to flog themselves for 50-60 minutes to counter Retallick/Whitelock/Read.The one other bench option would be to have Joseph, again to provide something different: Halfpenny will not break open a game with a run/step.
Bench:
I'd make a bit more change to the bench with 3 changes and changing to a 6-2 split to give different back-5 forward options to the first Test.
Same front row
Itoje, Henderson, Stander
Webb, Joseph
Also there might be more positive benefit from the promotion of 4 players into the matchday squad (Lawes, Henderson, Stander, Joseph) compared to the negative impact of 4 players going out of the squad (AWJ, Warburton, Te'O, Halfpenny).It might not make sense to others who read it, but neither does doing the same again!
Tough on AWJ, Te'O to go from starting to out of the squad, but this is the toughest arena so hard choices have to be made. -
@Megweya said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #2:
@MiketheSnow said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #2:
They believe they have the right personnel, and with more precision and better execution the right tactics to beat the ABs .
... Baby and bathwater springs to mindI'm willing to use one hand to tip the bath to 30-degrees and spill out some of the bathwater, but use the other hand to hold onto the baby
It will be a mistake to set out to do the same thing again with the same people and hoping that more precision/execution will beat the ABs who were dominant for large parts of the game.
12 years is a long time to wonder "What would have happened if ..."
The Lions were at their best when the ball got beyond 12.
So I'd opt for the alternative approach of 2 playmakers with Sexton at 10 and Farrell at 12.
That is tough on Te'O as he made some ground and defended well, but he is not good at getting the outside backs going. Te'O not being in the way of SBW will stress the Lions defence line more so I'd stick with Murray over Webb for 60-65 minutes. Webb does not contribute as much to defence as Murray and Webb is prone to solo-breaks with no support and will lose possession when isolated.I'd take AWJ out of the squad (maybe unfair as he did take a heavy knock before the first try) but he seemed out of touch. If he was injured and has recovered, then he could get in from the start as a lineout-caller. If not, then Lawes and Kruis (again Kruis just ahead of Itoje because of being a lineout-caller).
Then bring Itoje on at 50 min for whichever lock is likely to fade most.
There is a huge clamour for Itoje, but for all his athleticism, he does make rash mistakes and give away penalties.There is talk of swapping POM for Warburton, but I don't think there is a huge difference.
So 2 changes (Lawes for AWJ; Sexton in, Te'O out) + 1 positional (Farrell)
Same front-row;
Lawes and Kruis (or AWJ if he had played on injured)
Same back-row
Murray, Sexton
Farrell, Davies
Same back 3If Stander is going well, I'd put him on the bench instead of Warburton as Stander might be able to make yards when he comes on (but has not done that as well in 2017 as in 2016). Again, that is tough on Warburton, but Stander would offer a difference off the bench.
Tipuric would be a genuinely different option, but Gatland/Howley have not given him much time in a Welsh shirt over the years, so it is too late for a change of heart / game-plan.I'd probably opt for Henderson - like Itoje he gives lock/6 cover.
2 locks on the bench would give the starting pair the scope to flog themselves for 50-60 minutes to counter Retallick/Whitelock/Read.The one other bench option would be to have Joseph, again to provide something different: Halfpenny will not break open a game with a run/step.
Bench:
I'd make a bit more change to the bench with 3 changes and changing to a 6-2 split to give different back-5 forward options to the first Test.
Same front row
Itoje, Henderson, Stander
Webb, Joseph
Also there might be more positive benefit from the promotion of 4 players into the matchday squad (Lawes, Henderson, Stander, Joseph) compared to the negative impact of 4 players going out of the squad (AWJ, Warburton, Te'O, Halfpenny).It might not make sense to others who read it, but neither does doing the same again!
Tough on AWJ, Te'O to go from starting to out of the squad, but this is the toughest arena so hard choices have to be made.Can definitely see your thinking, but Murray, Sexton, Farrell just doesn't work for me.
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calling in the big guns for comments now!
Surely getting a out of context comment from BOD would be best?
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In other words - Dour piece of shit blames everyone else for his averageness.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=11882307
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Won't get anything close to this, but would personally go with the lineup below. Obviously a chance for a few players to make a case against the Chiefs and will be interesting to see who gets pulled early.
More changes than it's probably wise to make tomake, but would have Itoje and Tipuric starting. Both have superb line speed defensively and are capable of reaching players behind the gainline, before they are a threat. Lions defence forced to be very passive and reactive to some superb AB attacking play close to the ruck, punching up the middle. Keen on established combinations where possible and George, Kruis and Itoje is about as good as it gets in the NH from a lineout perspective, which would be needed as whilst Tipuric is a decent option, he's not in POM's class on that front. Stander has grown into the tour and like the idea of someone with a little more dynamism at 6.
Harsh on Te'o in the backs, but I don't think we are going to win a test on this tour playing two non-distributing centres in him and Davies. Think we should roll the dice here and give Sexton/Farrell a go from the start.
Bench-wise, gone for a 6-2 split with impact being the main focus. Halfpenny's a fantastic kicker and decent defensive full back, but we are more likely to be chasing the game when the bench is emptied and I'm not sure he's what's required when there are two international kickers in the 23. Captaincy a bit of an issue and would give it to Sexton or Farrell from that lot.
1.Mako Vunipola
2.Jamie George
3.Tadhg Furlong
4.Maro Itoje
5.George Kruis
6.CJ Stander
7.Justin Tipuric
8.Taulupe Faletau
9.Conor Murray
10.Jonathan Sexton
11.Elliot Daly
12.Owen Farrell
13.Jonathan Davies
14.Anthony Watson
15.Liam WilliamsReserves:
16.Rory Best
17.Jack McGrath
18.Kyle Sinckler
19.Courtney Lawes
20.Ian Henderson
21.Sean O'Brien
22.Rhys Webb
23.Jack NowellIn reality, I suspect Itoje (AWJ) and Warburton(POM) will come in. Possibly also Sexton either as a straight swap at 10 or a 10/12 combination with Farrell as above.
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@Donsteppa we hear the same BS every year about the thuggish AB's, yet we do the same as others...as for targeting players, I seem to recall a former AB captain having his head targeted frequently and players rarely getting sufficient sanctions.
While I know it is a stretch, I saw a comment the other day that you could argue (with a very long bow) that the Lions were targeting Ben SMith and his succeptibility to head knocks by putting kicks for him to take knowing a slight mis-time from him or them might mean another knock...
Rugby is a physical contact sport, where contesting the ball is a huge part of the game, and when a 110kg fella is running at you full tilt to stop a kick, he gets you, he misses you, there is gonna be contact, most of the time legal, every now and then there wil be late ones, and in most of those cases it is accidental
