All Black Coach - Ian Foster
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@kiwiinmelb said in [Poll] Next All Black Coach:
@mariner4life said in [Poll] Next All Black Coach:
@rotated said in [Poll] Next All Black Coach:
While the RWC is a noble goal, given all but one RWCs in the professional era have had a finalist coached by someone who took over mid-cycle it is difficult to see a correlation between forward planning and success.
I'm starting to think the 4-year cycle is a complete myth. I reckon it's no more than 18 months, and even then the most important part is the last 3.
Ireland are proof of that ,
had a brilliant 4 year cycle then fall in a hole at the end
The 4-year cycle only seems to work out well (and by that I mean result in a WC final appearance or victory), if it follows this pattern:
Year 1: strong results, based on consistent game plans and selections, beating major rivals and winning a significant trophy (i.e. 6N / RC).
Years 2-3: fall in performance as alternative game plans / tactics / selections are trialled.
Year 4 (i.e. 12-month lead-in to RWC): upswing in results consistent with Year 1, building winning momentum (but maybe not winning significant trophy); game plan and selections from Year 1 form basis of upswing and plans for RWC, together with most successful aspects of those trialled in years 2 and 3.I think you can probably say that the 2007, 2011 and 2015 winners fit into this pattern, together with the 2019 beaten finalists (the 2019 winners being a real anomaly). Otherwise, I agree, perhaps its better to be a dark horse 2 years out from a RWC (certainly, the 2007, 2011 and 2015 finalists, and 2019 winners, were not on anyone's radars as being serious contenders 2 years out).
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@junior To be honest - I doubt that there's any pattern that really helps.
For the teams in contention, I think it comes down to needing to win three consecutive play-off games. And even if you're at 80 percent against Tier 1 nations - that's 0.8 x 0.8 x 0.8 = about 50% chance of success.
If you can get a soft quarterfinal then grab it with both hands, because then you're 0.8 x 0.8 = 0.64 chance of success.
So, I just wanna say "fuck you" to the clowns who said "Bring on Ireland"!
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@Chris-B said in [Poll] Next All Black Coach:
@junior To be honest - I doubt that there's any pattern that really helps.
For the teams in contention, I think it comes down to needing to win three consecutive play-off games. And even if you're at 80 percent against Tier 1 nations - that's 0.8 x 0.8 x 0.8 = about 50% chance of success.
**If you can get a soft quarterfinal then grab it with both hands, because then you're 0.8 x 0.8 = 0.64 chance of success.
So, I just wanna say "fuck you" to the clowns who said "Bring on Ireland"! :)**
Could not agree more with this. I don't want to sound churlish, but even the most green-eyed Boks supporter must acknowledge that Japan upsetting Ireland was a massive result for their own success in the World Cup (much like Ireland upsetting Australia in 2011 had great importance in their failure at the 2011 World Cup).
This mean that we had to play a "final" at the QF stage, which left us with little left for the SF against England. England were always on course to play a "final" against us at the SF stage. Having avoided Ireland at the QF stage, SA were able to play their "final" in the actual final.
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@booboo said in [Poll] Next All Black Coach:
But the derangement about Fozzie is astonishing.
Yeah, Foster wasn't single-handedly responsible for every AB loss since 2017.
I remember similar when Henry was reappointed after the 2007 RWC (the one that didn't actually happen). That NZR decision turned out to be the right one.
Think some hard, fresh thinking is needed from the coaching side and the player side, but just think continuity is essential and want Foster in the mix
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@junior said in [Poll] Next All Black Coach:
This mean that we had to play a "final" at the QF stage, which left us with little left for the SF against England.
I'm convinced that had the players kept their cool a la the 2015 lot, we'd have nicked that game.
Not blaming Read for the loss as he gives 110%, but the leadership in that game from him and the other senior players was sub-standard
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@Victor-Meldrew said in [Poll] Next All Black Coach:
@junior said in [Poll] Next All Black Coach:
This mean that we had to play a "final" at the QF stage, which left us with little left for the SF against England.
I'm convinced that had the players kept their cool a la the 2015 lot, we'd have nicked that game.
Not blaming Read for the loss as he gives 110%, but the leadership in that game from him and the other senior players was sub-standard
It's all been said before but I think it was an epic failure from Shag down. Coming out of the sheds after half time where were the tactical changes? Everyone could see we needed to hit it up the guts to try and draw them in, but what happens? Nada, same tactics. I felt within the first 15 minutes of the second half that the game was lost, even if we showed signs of getting a little closer we let the pressure slip
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@Victor-Meldrew said in [Poll] Next All Black Coach:
@junior said in [Poll] Next All Black Coach:
This mean that we had to play a "final" at the QF stage, which left us with little left for the SF against England.
I'm convinced that had the players kept their cool a la the 2015 lot, we'd have nicked that game.
Not blaming Read for the loss as he gives 110%, but the leadership in that game from him and the other senior players was sub-standard
Yes, true. There was a point after Ardie's try where momentum was in the balance. Unfortunately, Jordie fucked the kick off and we conceded a quick 3, handing the momentum back to them. Even then, we had the chance to plug the corner, score a converted try from the ensuing lineout and get within 3 with just over 10 mins to play. From there, momentum is all ours and the pressure is on England not lose their nerves and bottle it. Frustratingly, a lack of composure caused Whitelock to do something stupid, which, again, let England off the hook and handed momentum back to them.
Presented with those opportunities, I am absolutely certain the 2015 team would have wrangled a 7-10 point win.
EDIT - I should say, the fact that it was a 100-test veteran doing something so stupid, when faced with a potentially match-defining moment, is scarcely believable. This is why he should be nowhere near the captaincy, whoever the new coach may be.
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@junior said in [Poll] Next All Black Coach:
Presented with those opportunities, I am absolutely certain the 2015 team would have wrangled a 7-10 point win.
Maybe. While the 2011/15 teams exorcised a lot of demons they almost always scored a try early and played with the lead most of the game, even vs the Boks they were up by the 50th minute. Sure they were calm as in the 2011 final, but but would have been the same if the needed 1 point in the final 10 minutes with Ellis, Donald and SBW as you 9-10-12? Doubtful.
Totally agree on the brain fades from senior players being the biggest difference. Not being switched on for the first two minutes was avoidable (especially after Twickenham last year), but the biggest blunder was the Whitelock penalty. Mo'unga kicks that and they are within 6 with 13 to go and it is all to play for.
The mantra needed to be just get within 7 and at least give England something to think about and potentially bottle it and you are probably right that is how the 2015 side would have played it.
I'm not sure if it is mollycoddling or what, but the same thing happened during the Lions series too. Absolute boneheaded plays from tenured players and Hansen is at pains to proactively defend them and would belittle the media for any even handed criticism etc. Less than 15 years ago Rodeny So'oialo and Stephen Donald were being strung up for bottling "friendlies" in far flung destinations like Rustenburg and Hong Kong. While some of the public reaction was puerile it did seem to have a reinforcing effect.
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@junior said in [Poll] Next All Black Coach:
I should say, the fact that it was a 100-test veteran doing something so stupid, when faced with a potentially match-defining moment, is scarcely believable. This is why he should be nowhere near the captaincy, whoever the new coach may be.
Yep. Which I why i don't blame Read even though I think his captaincy goes to pieces under pressure - something either he or the TWM should have sorted out long before RWC 2019. He can't be expected to do it on his own.
Do wonder if Sam Cane will get the nod. He gets that steely look in his eyes rather than Read's wild-eyed look and doesn't give away too many dumb penalties considering his playing position
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@Victor-Meldrew said in [Poll] Next All Black Coach:
Do wonder if Sam Cane will get the nod. He gets that steely look in his eyes rather than Read's wild-eyed look and doesn't give away too many dumb penalties considering his playing position
If we are picking the skipper on their eyes the power move is to get Richard Kahui back from Japan... or so the wife says.
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Richard Kahui - what a loss he was.
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I kind of agree, terrible judgement from Whitelock, but it was so out of character for him - and he's played plenty of important games including MOTM efforts in the last world cup knockouts, that it seems a bit harsh to say 'not captaincy material' based on one incident. Certainly the Crusaders have performed far better with him as captain than with Read.
You need more than Sam Cane's steely look in the eyes, you need to tell people what to do, and what not to do, and keep it simple under pressure.
As for whipping Ireland, the only impact that had was on over-confidence. We weren't tired from that game - it was never in doubt, we were able to sub early, and we had already missed the Italy game. And powder? England didn't adjust their tactics against us at the last minute after viewing the Irish game. We changed ours (poorly), dropped Cane, and we showed up without the right mindset - got smashed early and never recovered momentum, and the guys lost composure - that situation not helped by picking people like Jordie over B Smith, no Crotty etc. -
@Victor-Meldrew really? To be honest I'd pretty much forgotten about him. Filled a role extremely well in 2011 but I'd hardly say we've missed him.
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Thought he had big potential at 11-13-14.
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@reprobate said in [Poll] Next All Black Coach:
You need more than Sam Cane's steely look in the eyes, you need to tell people what to do, and what not to do, and keep it simple under pressure.
Agreed. The "steely eyes" comment was an allusion to calmness under pressure.
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@Victor-Meldrew Kahui broke more often than Crotty/SBW. That crook shoulder killed his ABs and SR career.
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@Victor-Meldrew said in [Poll] Next All Black Coach:
Thought he had big potential at 11-13-14.
He fulfilled it!
