AB's v Wales
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I think they might do alright this game. Given the dross served up recently they will surely want to end the year on a high.
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Add #8 to that as well. You'd think 8-9-10-12-13 would provide enough direction, and include Whitelock & Cane in that, that we'd be playing better than we are.
Looks like we can excuse the 10-12-13 axis a bit, as its starting to show some signs (first half v French, 2nd half v Scots)
But overall, we're just not that cohesive. When we play like we did test 1 vs BIL, we're hard to stop. I know we had to adjust tactics for test 2, but maybe we went too far away from what worked so well - of course, we did have a healthy lead until SBW got carded.The answer has to be that we're resisting showing our hand now, so as to not give the opposition a chance to completely work us out come RWC. As long as we keep the Bledisloe, win the TRC, and keep losses on the EOYT to a 1 a year - no one will care that badly (we all do, but we've been blessed with results since mid-2005 in all honesty) so long as we win the RWC (of course if we lose the warning signs will have been there all along)
Losing to Ireland wasn't all bad, the whole stigma of losing them has gone now, and realistically we were going to lose to someone we hadn't lost to before sometime - I always assumed Argentina over in Argentina, but well there you go.
Still. I want us to fuck Wales up. -
@westcoastie our 12/13 was chopped/changed (not there) in the Lions series too.
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@taniwharugby yeh exactly, so its good to see it starting to come together. I can see the AB's rolling with SBW/Crotty through to RWC, but developing Laumape & Goodhue over the next two years.
They have to have seen the value in a strong combo at 12/13. ALB seems to have stalled, but will remain a great bench option I think covering both positions into the next RWC cycle. -
@westcoastie I'm bias, but I think Goodhue is an option to look at a player that can play 12/13, I know it is 'only NPC' but he played 12 at NPC and 13 at Super.
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@taniwharugby he looks the goods doesn't he... he was wing in his NZ u20 team also
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@gunner said in AB's v Wales:
We’re in serious danger of losing this one.
Wales I’m not sure. If it was England or Ireland I’d have us as underdogs which is a bit sickening.
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@bovidae said in AB's v Wales:
@tordah said in AB's v Wales:
I guess Havili and Scott Barrett come in, then?
Tamanivalu should be a straight swap for Ioane. I'd prefer Pat T to start ahead of Barrett.
Agree on Tamanivalu.
I’d prefer PT to come off the bench. The best rugby he’s ever played for the ABs has been in an impact role off the bench to close out games.
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@billy-tell said in AB's v Wales:
@gunner said in AB's v Wales:
We’re in serious danger of losing this one.
Wales I’m not sure. If it was England or Ireland I’d have us as underdogs which is a bit sickening.
I'm not saying Wales are favourites, but they're as good a chance right now than they have been in a long while.
I'm always pretty confident that the ABs will win, but I just feel a bit uneasy about this one...
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I realise this is a tiny sample but here are the territoy and possession stats from the AB's last 4 tests.
Territory Possession
Scotland 34% 40%
France 46% 43%
Australia 43% 46%
SA 37% 36%Clearly we have some issues holding onto the ball in the right places. I can only assume its a tactic of the coaches to kick the ball back to the opposition and hope they make a mistake and score from broken play. Or perhaps teams who play the AB's do not want to kick the ball to our back 3 so they hold onto it for longer. Either way, I would have thought it would be easier to score points when you have the ball at the right end of the park.
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@chimoaus said in AB's v Wales:
Either way, I would have thought it would be easier to score points when you have the ball at the right end of the park.Not necessarily. The ABs have been shoddy these past few tests, however they do consistently score tries despite not having an advantage in possession or territory. This is directly related to them trying to score tries from all parts of the field - if it's on, they will go for it, even from deep in their own half. Which means they score tries more often - but also hand the ball back when it doesn't work out. So they could change their style and just rumble it endlessly, thereby improving their stats but not their points scoring as all teams struggle to score tries by "just holding onto the ball".
Similar to the flat or deep backline. The Scots appeared to always be making ground yet sometimes they were flinging it so wide and deep that they were already 20 metres back before they started making that ground. They made few clean line breaks - often they were beating a man to be hit by the covering defenders. The AB flat line does annoy me a lot yet it did yield a fair few clean breaks which could and maybe should have ended in tries.
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@act-crusader said in AB's v Wales:
I’d prefer PT to come off the bench. The best rugby he’s ever played for the ABs has been in an impact role off the bench to close out games.
I just worry about Barrett's lack of size against the larger NH packs. I agree, Tuipulotu is perfectly suited as an impact sub, as long as he gets more than 20 mins off the bench.
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I think we need to take a look at the bench options. Although not in favour with things originally we need to look at it now.
Pat t and Akira off the bench for me with Aumua (I'm done with Harris) let's see what impact they bring.
In the backs we don't have much options. Maybe laumape is a difference maker, if alb ain't starting I'm not sure I see his value as impact.Starters predictable with Barrett in. As for wing I wld not put goodhue there, u20 is massive difference to tests!! Inclined to start Taminavalu.
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@bovidae said in AB's v Wales:
What were the possession and territory stats for the SA test at Albany?
Those stats can be misleading and not indicative of the final score.
Looks like 52% Territory and 55% Possession to the AB's. No doubt what you do with it when you have it is more important that simply holding onto the ball. I guess I just get frustrated with unforced turnovers where a silly play/penalty gifts the ball back to the opposition.
I really think our set piece has saved us this year, the scrum and lineout overall have been excellent. Its our errors, poor kicking and just a lack of direction in general play that seems to be hurting us.
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@bovidae said in AB's v Wales:
@act-crusader said in AB's v Wales:
I’d prefer PT to come off the bench. The best rugby he’s ever played for the ABs has been in an impact role off the bench to close out games.
I just worry about Barrett's lack of size against the larger NH packs. I agree, Tuipulotu is perfectly suited as an impact sub, as long as he gets more than 20 mins off the bench.
I totally agree about Barrett (S). And still seems a bit odd that he was on bench for NZ XV but not in 23 for Scotland.
And also prefer Patty T for impact. But with BBBR and Romero out we need a power lock to start, and PT was excellent in that role for NZ XV, so give him a shot, I say. -
@gunner said in AB's v Wales:
@billy-tell said in AB's v Wales:
@gunner said in AB's v Wales:
We’re in serious danger of losing this one.
Wales I’m not sure. If it was England or Ireland I’d have us as underdogs which is a bit sickening.
I'm not saying Wales are favourites, but they're as good a chance right now than they have been in a long while.
I'm always pretty confident that the ABs will win, but I just feel a bit uneasy about this one...
True. If we click and NZ don't then we could sneak a win.
Conversely, if NZ click and we don't then it could be a 30-40 point drubbing like the bad old good old days.
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@mikethesnow said in AB's v Wales:
@gunner said in AB's v Wales:
@billy-tell said in AB's v Wales:
@gunner said in AB's v Wales:
We’re in serious danger of losing this one.
Wales I’m not sure. If it was England or Ireland I’d have us as underdogs which is a bit sickening.
I'm not saying Wales are favourites, but they're as good a chance right now than they have been in a long while.
I'm always pretty confident that the ABs will win, but I just feel a bit uneasy about this one...
True. If we click and NZ don't then we could sneak a win.
Conversely, if NZ click and we don't then it could be a 30-40 point drubbing like the bad old good old days.
I actually think the ABs will click because of Gatland's comments this week!
