All Blacks v BI Lions Test #3
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@Crucial Be wary of the law of unintended consequences. Not actually on this specific point but a little while ago I went to a dinner where the speaker was Rob Baxter (Exeter Chiefs coach) and he fielded a few questions, there were a couple that were asking about/moaning about various contentious issues such as the scrum battle leading to constant re-sets. Baxter was very thoughtful on the subject and pointed out the possible problems in de-powering the scrum with the main one being more blokes in the defensive line. As a consequence I'm very wary of anything that reduces the contest for the ball in any given situation. But I agree that the offside line at ruck and maul is becoming very difficult to police.
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THe Lions are very smart with thier defensive line, keeping it straight is key to gaining that extra half a metre or so, which can make a huge difference, except Itoje, I think he wants to be an AB!
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@Catogrande said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #3:
@Crucial Be wary of the law of unintended consequences. Not actually on this specific point but a little while ago I went to a dinner where the speaker was Rob Baxter (Exeter Chiefs coach) and he fielded a few questions, there were a couple that were asking about/moaning about various contentious issues such as the scrum battle leading to constant re-sets. Baxter was very thoughtful on the subject and pointed out the possible problems in de-powering the scrum with the main one being more blokes in the defensive line. As a consequence I'm very wary of anything that reduces the contest for the ball in any given situation. But I agree that the offside line at ruck and maul is becoming very difficult to police.
I completely agree. Nearly every law change throws up another problem while 'fixing' the original one.
That's why I was throwing that idea out to the collective wisdom of the fern to let others pick it apart.
As I said, I think the consequence may be that if you cleanup those extra players clogging the area by incentivising them to stay back it only increases the numbers in defence. However there will be an incentive to group numbers in narrow as any pick and go will have a head of steam up.
That also makes me think you would get a lot more big straight runners winding up from 5 back to take a flat ball and smash it up. -
@Baron-Silas-Greenback I'm not inherently negative but I'm sympathetic to @Crazy-Horse 's points. I've noticed some of those same trends.
I can't remember a time ... well maybe early 00s v Aus (and even then ...) ... when I wasn't convinced that if both teams played at their full capacity thst the ABs wouldn't win because we were just better. Especially the forwards.
In recent years there have been games when we've started badly but I've been convinced with possession and persistence we'd roll over the top. And we usually have.
It's just i think we're at parity with these guys. I don't see the dominance I expected or usually expect. So I'm nervous on a 50:50 level. Haven't been this uncertain about a game since gee I don't know. (Maybe France in France in 1990 ... and we ended up smoking them in those two tests).
I was nervous about the 2011 semifinal (utterly overconfident about the final
) but convinced we just had to play to our potential. This one ... eeek.Having said that I think we got our tactics wrong in Wellington. When we were using the inside ball in Auckland we were making ground and looking good. And we had moments in Wellington when we stretched them ... then kicked the ball away. Perhaps we had developed a belief that the only way to beat the rush defence is to kick? Pick the right tactics, keep the ball in hand on attack and maybe my fears are baseless. Hopefully.
Convince me why we're going to win people. And don't give historical bullshit about Eden Park's record. That's been a consequence of us being better not a reason for winning. Tell me why we're better on Saturdsy.
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i remain worried that our forwards will be a couple of % off after the last 2 weeks efforts, particularly the 7 man game. efforts like those from cane, read, retallick, whitelock take it out of you. mentally they'll be up for it i'm sure, and usually that is enough for us to prove very hard to beat following a defeat - but the margins here are small and i think those guys may be a bit more fatigued than their opposites.
lineout as mentioned has looked far less secure without coles. will cost us at some point in a tight game.
backs will have to wait and see who we go with. davies and williams have been the 2 guys giving us problems really. would feel more secure with ben smith and crotty back. the biggest tactical thing is just for us to stop kicking the damn ball away and be content to build pressure rather than try hail marys. -
“There’s been a bit of edge there,” said Kaino, who is so worked up that he had to be told to cool it in the team’s training session on Tuesday morning.
Angry All Blacks still trying to get Wellington out of their minds | Andy Bull
While the Lions are having some fun in Queenstown, New Zealand are talking a good game but can’t seem to move on from their defeat in the second Test
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@Tim a bit of niggle and feeling at training, love it.
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@ACT-Crusader I feel a can of whoopass being readied to be opened this Saturday
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@reprobate said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #3:
@Crucial ugh, league.
Yep, that's the conclusion I'm heading to as well.
I know that most rugby laws are applied on a 'clearly transgressing' basis but the key thing when using judgement especially with the TMO is 'clear and obvious'.
all I am suggesting is that the question is turned around and you must be clearly onside rather than clearly offside. Just as a tackler must clearly release the ball carrier before contesting or you must clearly move away from the wrong side.
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@Crucial said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #3:
Angry Jerome and angry BBBR.
Could get interesting.
I think TJP may need some Prozac pre game though or he may fly into the distance.
Angry forwards = good (no make decision. Leave brain stuff to backs. Run forward. Lots)
Angry backs = overstressed midgets prone to bad decisions -
@reprobate The Lions forwards have had a tougher schedule than ours. They have effectively had to play four Test match standard games in a row and are coming off a long and grueling season. Some of our guys have hardly played at all this year. I wouldn't be too worried, they will be fine.
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@Tim said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #3:
“There’s been a bit of edge there,” said Kaino, who is so worked up that he had to be told to cool it in the team’s training session on Tuesday morning.
Angry All Blacks still trying to get Wellington out of their minds | Andy Bull
While the Lions are having some fun in Queenstown, New Zealand are talking a good game but can’t seem to move on from their defeat in the second Test
Assume SBW was on the receiveing end of a lot of Kaino's "anger".
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@Crucial yeah i get your point, but i do think it would encourage battering rams, especially when close to the try line. i think we just need to get better at dealing with it - the rush defence has been the best way to beat the all blacks since the late 80s, basically ever since i've been capable of analysis - and i think because of that we tend to worry about the offside line more than most - just about every game we've lost there will have been complaints about opposition living offside. that's largely because our outside backs have been a relative strength that whole time, and a rush defence is a good way to prevent them getting the ball.
it's a simple game though, if the opposition is up quick, you just have to adjust and make play closer in - get momentum and they can't rush and will either be flat-footed or obviously offside and pinged. once you have them on the back foot, go wide fast, skip passes to get around the midfield, and you'll find space. test 1 i think we actually showed how to deal with it pretty well, minus kicking the ball away a few times. -
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@reprobate said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #3:
@akan004 agree on the schedule, but if you look at the rotation of the front row (same as ours) they're not playing 80, their locks have changed a bit with kruis/lawes/awj/itoje. warburton hasn't played a huge amount because of injury...
Guessing Marler may start with Vunipola on the bench this week as well. Furlong and George will stay.
Jamie George has had such a good series I can't see Hartley remaining England captain for much longer.
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@Crucial said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #3:
@reprobate said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #3:
@akan004 agree on the schedule, but if you look at the rotation of the front row (same as ours) they're not playing 80, their locks have changed a bit with kruis/lawes/awj/itoje. warburton hasn't played a huge amount because of injury...
Guessing Marler may start with Vunipola on the bench this week as well. Furlong and George will stay.
Jamie George has had such a good series I can't see Hartley remaining England captain for much longer.
Possible re Marler but McGrath is the man in situ and hasn't done (poorly) enough (IMO) to warrant Marler being picked over him.
I'd guess pretty much the same squad with the possibility of Halfpenny on the bench for Nowell. Vunipola to bench and McGrath starting. I'd be surprised if there was anything much more than that.
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@reprobate said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #3:
@Crucial yeah i get your point, but i do think it would encourage battering rams, especially when close to the try line. i think we just need to get better at dealing with it - the rush defence has been the best way to beat the all blacks since the late 80s, basically ever since i've been capable of analysis - and i think because of that we tend to worry about the offside line more than most - just about every game we've lost there will have been complaints about opposition living offside. that's largely because our outside backs have been a relative strength that whole time, and a rush defence is a good way to prevent them getting the ball.
it's a simple game though, if the opposition is up quick, you just have to adjust and make play closer in - get momentum and they can't rush and will either be flat-footed or obviously offside and pinged. once you have them on the back foot, go wide fast, skip passes to get around the midfield, and you'll find space. test 1 i think we actually showed how to deal with it pretty well, minus kicking the ball away a few times.Watch old tapes of Gregan.
