Players to build the team around?
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By the way, I wasn't necessarily trying to start a 'dump Mo'unga' discussion, just trying to further my point that this 'picking both' selection policy isn't working.
At the core of that is the idea that we are better with 'dual playmakers,' but there is not much evidence to support that as a strategy for starting matches.
We've done well with it when we've used explosive individuals with playmaking ability late in games - primarily Barrett and then Mackenzie.
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@Derpus We'll probably have to agree to differ on Pollard.
When I first saw him in Under-19s or Schools (giving us a decent thumping whatever it was), I thought he'd be a world beater - but, I don't think he kicked on as I expected.
I don't think you can simply discount Pollard's years of playing for a Super rugby team that was substandard, so I've taken exception to you discounting Moúnga's dominance at that level.
My conclusion - which is pretty much where I started - is that currently there's no frontrunner among test first fives - and Mo'unga might be the best.
I have found none of you guys arguments compelling!
Lift your games!
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@gt12 said in Players to build the team around?:
By the way, I wasn't necessarily trying to start a 'dump Mo'unga' discussion, just trying to further my point that this 'picking both' selection policy isn't working.
At the core of that is the idea that we are better with 'dual playmakers,' but there is not much evidence to support that as a strategy for starting matches.
We've done well with it when we've used explosive individuals with playmaking ability late in games - primarily Barrett and then Mackenzie.
Yeah, I know. And it may go back to the thing that (I think it was you posted) about us trying to pick pairs.
The thing about Mo'unga's missed tackle is that he's not the first or last first five they've tried to hide on defense. And he is nowhere close to the likes of DC in defense.
What Mo'unga does do - better than anyone else, IMO - is play well in traffic. He's Carlos Mk II. So with a rush defense, I think his catch, pass, run decisions/execution are better than pretty much anyone. He's also got fantastic acceleration - at least close to Barrett, even if he doesn't have quite the top end speed.
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@Chris-B said in Players to build the team around?:
@KiwiMurph said in Players to build the team around?:
@Chris-B The risk/reward associated with being one or two metres closer just doesn't add up in a test match which is all about taking your opportunities and minimising errors.
I think I just take into account the exponential risk of having to drive a few extra metres and want Richie to say, "I'm Richie "Big Balls" Mo'unga. I'm backing myself to kick this ball where I usually do. I am taking responsibility (and the glare of the national spotlight if it goes wrong) rather than asking my forwards to cover my arse when the heat is on."
doesn't really matter whether it's Richie or Beauden or Jordie (or Mitch) I want them to go for it - take responsibility and back themselves.
With all due respect, you're not making the right comparison. The right comparison is between being 10-15m out from the opposition try line (from where you can maul or maul and then go wider etc.) and being back on halfway defending an opposition line out.
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@junior said in Players to build the team around?:
@Chris-B said in Players to build the team around?:
@KiwiMurph said in Players to build the team around?:
@Chris-B The risk/reward associated with being one or two metres closer just doesn't add up in a test match which is all about taking your opportunities and minimising errors.
I think I just take into account the exponential risk of having to drive a few extra metres and want Richie to say, "I'm Richie "Big Balls" Mo'unga. I'm backing myself to kick this ball where I usually do. I am taking responsibility (and the glare of the national spotlight if it goes wrong) rather than asking my forwards to cover my arse when the heat is on."
doesn't really matter whether it's Richie or Beauden or Jordie (or Mitch) I want them to go for it - take responsibility and back themselves.
I think it's this....
The right comparison is between being 10-15m out from the opposition try line (from where you can maul or maul and then go wider etc.) and 80% having a lineout 5 metres out; and 20% being back on halfway defending an opposition line out.
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@Chris-B said in Players to build the team around?:
@gt12 said in Players to build the team around?:
By the way, I wasn't necessarily trying to start a 'dump Mo'unga' discussion, just trying to further my point that this 'picking both' selection policy isn't working.
At the core of that is the idea that we are better with 'dual playmakers,' but there is not much evidence to support that as a strategy for starting matches.
We've done well with it when we've used explosive individuals with playmaking ability late in games - primarily Barrett and then Mackenzie.
Yeah, I know. And it may go back to the thing that (I think it was you posted) about us trying to pick pairs.
The thing about Mo'unga's missed tackle is that he's not the first or last first five they've tried to hide on defense. And he is nowhere close to the likes of DC in defense.
What Mo'unga does do - better than anyone else, IMO - is play well in traffic. He's Carlos Mk II. So with a rush defense, I think his catch, pass, run decisions/execution are better than pretty much anyone. He's also got fantastic acceleration - at least close to Barrett, even if he doesn't have quite the top end speed.
He's been sub-par when playing against the rush defence, just like everyone else. His ability in traffic is a bit of a red herring because one of the objectives of the rush defence - other than catching a ball-carrier in midfield begins the advantage line - is to force the attacking team back into channel 1 / 2 where the defensive backrow can again go smash and force a turnover. We don't therefore need a midget chopping back in when forced (you're better served by taking that space first with some bulk a la SBW circa Lions I). In any event, he hasn't exactly been using his footwork to beat the rush defence, as he's been as guilty as BB of taking the ball flat footed and shovelling shit to his midfield.
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@gt12 said in Players to build the team around?:
@hydro11 said in Players to build the team around?:
@gt12 said in Players to build the team around?:
I think we should be questioning whether this 'two playmakers' strategy is working.
In the tests in which Barrett and Mo'unga have started together over the past two years (Mo'unga 10, Barrett 15), we've got a 64% winning percentage (7/11), with 3 losses and one draw. If we include the Oz draw this year where Dmac replaced an injured Barrett, the winning percentage drops to 58%!
If Mo'unga is at 10, then isn't Beauden Barrett just the best fullback anyway? So if Mo'unga is your 10, then it is more about tactics and how you use Beaudy at fullback. If Beauden isn't at fullback, then Jordie is probably there who is a second play maker anyway.
I don't think Will Jordan has done enough to be starting fullback right now.
Yep, I'm trying to point to the issue without necessarily saying that Mo'unga is the problem, but OK, we have a 64% winning percentage when he starts in the 10 jersey. There are some terrible results in there too - the smashing in Perth, the loss to England, and the loss to the Argies.
Is that record acceptable?
Do we think we'd have the same percentage if we have committed to just keeping Barrett at 10?
I don't really think Barrett is a great 10, but as a starter at 10 (I'm using ESPN data from 2016), he has an 86% winning percentage.
If we look at 2018-2020 (i.e., the same time that Mo'unga has been around in the team), he has a 79% winning percentage starting at 10 with 3 losses (South Africa in Wellington, Ireland at Landsdown Road, and OZ in Brisbane). Two of those losses were by 2 points.
I don't know. It's difficult to say. I certainly think Mo'unga hasn't done a great job at 10 for the All Blacks. He doesn't seem to link that well with the midfield. I think that is really what we need a first-five who can make the players outside him better. I don't think Beauden really does that either.
I would say on balance, Beauden deserves the number 10 jersey for the moment.
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@gt12 said in Players to build the team around?:
He’s a bit more Shaun Johnson than Carlos Spencer IMO - very ‘touch’ football player like and can be devastating. But he’s no Los.
He's won a lot more club titles than Shaun Johnson!
If someone can wind back the clock on this board to about May 2003, they will find me writing that Carlos' shit goal kicking would cost us test matches. I didn't have to wait long.
I think I'm a lot more confident in Richie than most others on this board. Frankly, I don't really mind if Beaudy starts either - I think both are very close to number 1.
And to try to dispel the arrogant tag - there's only a few other positions I'd try to claim that. Aaron Smith. Maybe Cane. Not Retallick right now, but maybe later. Maybe Beaudy at 15.
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Personal opinion...
I think Mckenzie could be the best 10 in the country if given the chance.
He only got one start at 10 for the AB's where he destroyed the french in one of the most complete performances at fly half. To the point that I believe that game inspired the dual playmaker system because the coaches wanted to get him and Beauden involved regularly touching the ball ('want your best players touching the ball often' something along those lines from a Hansen quote at the time).
This all fell apart when Mckenzie got injured in 2019 and they had to migrate that to Mounga/Beauden with Beauden going from 3 years at 10 to jumping in at fullback in a world cup year.
Or maybe I'm remembering everything wrong and I'm a moron.
Either way, I'd like to see Mckenzie get a shot at 10 with the AB pack in front of him.
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@junior said in Players to build the team around?:
@Chris-B said in Players to build the team around?:
@gt12 said in Players to build the team around?:
By the way, I wasn't necessarily trying to start a 'dump Mo'unga' discussion, just trying to further my point that this 'picking both' selection policy isn't working.
At the core of that is the idea that we are better with 'dual playmakers,' but there is not much evidence to support that as a strategy for starting matches.
We've done well with it when we've used explosive individuals with playmaking ability late in games - primarily Barrett and then Mackenzie.
Yeah, I know. And it may go back to the thing that (I think it was you posted) about us trying to pick pairs.
The thing about Mo'unga's missed tackle is that he's not the first or last first five they've tried to hide on defense. And he is nowhere close to the likes of DC in defense.
What Mo'unga does do - better than anyone else, IMO - is play well in traffic. He's Carlos Mk II. So with a rush defense, I think his catch, pass, run decisions/execution are better than pretty much anyone. He's also got fantastic acceleration - at least close to Barrett, even if he doesn't have quite the top end speed.
He's been sub-par when playing against the rush defence, just like everyone else. His ability in traffic is a bit of a red herring because one of the objectives of the rush defence - other than catching a ball-carrier in midfield begins the advantage line - is to force the attacking team back into channel 1 / 2 where the defensive backrow can again go smash and force a turnover. We don't therefore need a midget chopping back in when forced (you're better served by taking that space first with some bulk a la SBW circa Lions I). In any event, he hasn't exactly been using his footwork to beat the rush defence, as he's been as guilty as BB of taking the ball flat footed and shovelling shit to his midfield.
I don't necessarily agree completely, but it's a well made point.
I don't think anyone has solved the rush defense, but I think Richie offers more potential than most - and probably more with the right coaching team around him!!!
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@Machpants said in Players to build the team around?:
As another aside, I’m worried Wales will ditch their coach by the end of the year - and Razor will be on his way to get the ‘required’ international experience. Leaving us stuck with Foster or A N Other coach not contracted until RWC
If he signs, who else is free this side of RWC 2023? JJ/TB are tied up, Rennie of course, Gatland has the Lions. We have made our bed as they say and now we must lie in it. Look forward to 2027 peoples....
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@Machpants said in Players to build the team around?:
That was my point, we might be stuck with Foster or a real noob! Hopefully Razor will be happy to hang on one more year for his guaranteed ABs post
Umaga and Mauger 😀
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@Crazy-Horse said in Players to build the team around?:
@Machpants said in Players to build the team around?:
That was my point, we might be stuck with Foster or a real noob! Hopefully Razor will be happy to hang on one more year for his guaranteed ABs post
Umaga and Mauger 😀
dont forget Hammett
