All Blacks 2024
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I’m pretty neutral on Blackadder , don’t see his name as a terrible selection if named in a. squad but at the same time not sure where he best fits in either and don’t see him as the long term solution at 6 .
I tend to agree more with the criticism that the overall selection of the loosies is out of balance more so than piling on the individuals
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@brodean Looks like you put a bit of work into your model, but I'm pretty sceptical about its predictive value.
For example - according to your model - Sam Cane has been our worst loosie. But, according to Duluth's MotM polls (which admittedly have their own problems) collating the opinions of Ferners on who played best - Sam Cane was one of our best players vs SA and well ahead of Ardie in both games - marginally behind Blackadder and Sititi in each.
An immediate problem with your model is that it only counts dominant tackles, but penalises all missed tackles.
Which basically says only dominant tackles are useful, but all missed tackles are harmful.
This is clearly not true.
To play well you should only attempt tackles on small inside backs when you've clearly got them lined up to be smashed?
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@KiwiMurph said in All Blacks 2024:
Word is that Fletcher Newell is out for Bledisloe One.
Big chance for Tosi
Yep Bower staying with the squad.
Newell has a calf strain. -
@KiwiMurph said in All Blacks 2024:
Word is that Fletcher Newell is out for Bledisloe One.
Big chance for Tosi
Hopefully. Newell is like EDG in that he adds little outside of scrums., and it's not what you want from your bench. Having some ball-carriers will help the attack.
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@KiwiMurph said in All Blacks 2024:
Word is that Fletcher Newell is out for Bledisloe One.
Big chance for Tosi
Tosi is not is the squad, is he?
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@Machpants said in All Blacks 2024:
@KiwiMurph said in All Blacks 2024:
Word is that Fletcher Newell is out for Bledisloe One.
Big chance for Tosi
Tosi is not is the squad, is he?
Rugby championship squad member and was released to play this last weekend...
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I'm getting fucking sick of hearing super rugby doesn't cut it when the coaches refuse to fucking pick the best players in the competition and work with them.
Pick second rate, supposedly established players and get second rate results. Colour me surprised.
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@Bones said in All Blacks vs Wallabies I:
I'm getting fucking sick of hearing super rugby doesn't cut it when the coaches refuse to fucking pick the best players in the competition and work with them.
Pick second rate, supposedly established players and get second rate results. Colour me surprised.
Which is ironic too as it's the only previous experience the coaches have.
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@Yeahtheboys said in All Blacks 2024:
Is Scott Robertson the worst All Blacks coach of all time?
No.
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It's just a bit of fun. I personally wouldn't select that trio.
However I do believe you're more likely to miss tackles going for big hits and you're also more likely to get penalised/carded. There's less control going for big hits.
I do think Finau did better than some people think. I personally don't think he or Blackadder deserved to be selected in the initial squad. Finaus Super Rugby form wasn't anything special but he did well enough against England and has a higher ceiling than Blackadder.
Sotutu should have been there instead of Sititi though there is an argument for both in the squad.
I find it ironic that Sotutu wasn't good enough both sides of the ball and then Cane lets Kolisi in for his try and Blackadder misses tackles regularly and gets dominated at the breakdown.
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There are a lot of indicators that he is on a Laurie Mains 1994 trajectory. Picking zero players from the top team in the starting forward pack (not to mention only one from the hurricanes).
Robertson is nominally in charge of loose forward selections, but rumours are prevalent in Harbour and Auckland rugby that Jason Ryan has biases against Blues forwards, and has real problems with a few of them related to his ego.
The leaking of Sotutu's non-selection before the final was a real low point.
Mediocre players, mediocre results, a coaching team full of cronies.
Expect losses in the northern hemisphere.
The question is, in a professional game, how do we get people like this out of the institutions?
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An observation from watching 2024 Super Rugby was that inferior teams often were within a few points at halftime, and then the score really blew out in the 2nd half. (Especially Australian teams.)
That's probably more dramatic than the trend that Rassie Erasmus observed, but he was the first mover.
So you load the first half team with very good but lesser players, and then take advantage of the bigger points differential in the second half. You invent the "bomb squad" and win two World Cups.
Who would be in NZ's bomb squad?
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@Tim It's an interesting thought eh. Most people in NZ think that the bench is for a mix of injury cover and ball runners. Because ball runners have 'ímpact', but to me it is a bit more complex than that and requires some thought about the opposition.
We got good mileage against England by having a dominant scrum once the reserves came on. Scrum penalties are huge on relieving defensive pressure and creating attacking pressure, so if you have reserves who are significantly better than the oppositions front row reserves, then that can be an effective impact option.
Rassie has been proven right time and again that forwards get more tired than backs - that's hardly rocket science - but we can't seem to figure it out despite his example.
The 1st SA game showed that you need players on the field at the end of the game who can deal with pressure. The 2nd SA game showed that experience does not equal 'able to deal with pressure'.
Traditional NZ thinking has a guy like Aumua as a great impact sub. He may be in future, but until his lineout throwing is reliable coming on late under pressure, he's a liability despite being an amazing player.
Defences do get sloppier, so ball runners can be a good option. Rucks get messier, so a turnover merchant would get more opportunities.
I just don't think we give it enough thought at all. -
@reprobate said in All Blacks vs Wallabies I:
Most people in NZ think that the bench is for a mix of injury cover and ball runners. Because ball runners have 'ímpact'
A very basic, and fundamental question he asked was: why couldn't the reserves come on before half time? Maybe you get 35 good minutes out of a prop? Why not do it in reverse?
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@Bones said in All Blacks vs Wallabies I:
I'm getting fucking sick of hearing super rugby doesn't cut it when the coaches refuse to fucking pick the best players in the competition and work with them.
Pick second rate, supposedly established players and get second rate results. Colour me surprised.
Couldn't have said it better myself. It's like form in Super Rugby means nothing and then the coaches make up some bullshit excuse as to why certain players shouldn't be selected. Prime example is Sotutu but hey, let's select about 5 guys that all do the same thing and then wonder why we don't get any go forward against bigger teams.
If the All Blacks were picked purely on Super form our 15 would look like the below. Far too many Blues for Razor's liking.
- Numia
- Aumua
- Lomax
- Tuipolotu
- Darry
- Ioane
- Papali'i
- Sotutu
- Ratima
- McKenzie
- Clarke
- Lam
- Proctor
- Reece
- Love
