All Blacks 2022
-
@mariner4life said in All Blacks 2022:
@kiwiwomble said in All Blacks 2022:
@chimoaus said in All Blacks 2022:
Could this be a move by NZR to have Schmidt take over post WC? Schmidt and the Messiah might be an interesting combo.
i was wonder if it was a way to have other options in a string position to step in, anyone coming in from the outside is going to have a hard time the closer we get to the RWC....but a selector stepping in to help with the team he helped select?
this whole "the world cup takes 4 years to win" thing is absolute bullshit.
I am firmly of the belief that you could make significant changes in the year of and win the thing. It might suit you better because then the Eddie Jones' of the world do not have 4 years to plan for your plan.
The only one i can think of that appears to be a planned out campaign was England
You can be shit during the World Cup year and make the final, there is ample evidence of that
My gut feel is we still allow ourselves to believe it in NZ because it was tied to our "are we ever going to win this fucking thing?" malaise, and it is a nice way for AB coaches to manage expectations.
Testify!!!
I reckon that's dead right! If we switched Fozzie for Razor 8 months out from the RWC and
Razor is the gun we hope for, then I think it would have no bearing at all on his likelihood of success.The only caveat is if the newly appointed coach turns out to be out of his depth, suddenly we've got a shitshow of 2003 proportions - which of course was not too much worse than what happened either side.
-
@kiwimurph said in All Blacks 2022:
Schmidt will be able to keep close tabs on the progress of RTS
Radio Télévision Suisse. It’s where I get my news anyway. They do a great drive home show too. Admittedly there is never any rugby coverage.
-
@hooroo said in All Blacks 2022:
@mariner4life said in All Blacks 2022:
@kiwiwomble said in All Blacks 2022:
@chimoaus said in All Blacks 2022:
Could this be a move by NZR to have Schmidt take over post WC? Schmidt and the Messiah might be an interesting combo.
i was wonder if it was a way to have other options in a string position to step in, anyone coming in from the outside is going to have a hard time the closer we get to the RWC....but a selector stepping in to help with the team he helped select?
this whole "the world cup takes 4 years to win" thing is absolute bullshit.
I am firmly of the belief that you could make significant changes in the year of and win the thing. It might suit you better because then the Eddie Jones' of the world do not have 4 years to plan for your plan.
The only one i can think of that appears to be a planned out campaign was England
You can be shit during the World Cup year and make the final, there is ample evidence of that
My gut feel is we still allow ourselves to believe it in NZ because it was tied to our "are we ever going to win this fucking thing?" malaise, and it is a nice way for AB coaches to manage expectations.
South Africa last world cup are case and point.
They sucked 12 months before the start of the world cup year and then bosh! Another World Cup.
(I think)
You did that to piss me off eh?
-
@chris-b said in All Blacks 2022:
The only caveat is if the newly appointed coach turns out to be out of his depth, suddenly we've got a shitshow of 2003 proportions - which of course was not too much worse than what happened either side.
I mean the issues that caused the 2003 loss probably could have been solved in an afternoon (or with a half decent TMO). Things weren't so off course that they were going to be difficult to salvage like in 1991 or 2019.
If anything a window less than two years would help paper any cracks that would develop over a four year cycle. Henry, Gatland, Smith, Cheika, McKenzie, Hansen, Deans, Mitchell, Jones, Hart all either didn't last a full four years in their first international gig or were dead man walking at the four year mark with most having some spectacular highs in the first two years. Obviously to many of our southern brethren it is insulting to compare Razor to these types of coaches, but it is possible he could go down this path much like his stint as U20s coach which ended in failing to progress from the pool stage in 2016.
-
@hooroo said in All Blacks 2022:
South Africa last world cup are case and point.
They sucked 12 months before the start of the world cup year and then bosh! Another World Cup.
(I think)
Two things though. The draw matters a lot here. Even a "very good" side can't seem to take the best shot of three top 5 teams in consecutive weeks. You need help either from the draw, a controversial decision or another team turning up spent playing their final a week before to make it through. So it's easier to navigate the tournament if you have a Japan or Fiji as your QF opponent, or even Argentina in 2011 after Carter went down.
The other thing is it is a lot easier to play above yourself if you resign yourself to the limitations of the side and focusing a narrow range of tactics which give you the best chance of victory on the day. It is hard to see an AB side doing this, unless maybe tipped over in the pool stages or in a major injury crisis in a key position like 2011.
-
-
@rotated said in All Blacks 2022:
@hooroo said in All Blacks 2022:
South Africa last world cup are case and point.
They sucked 12 months before the start of the world cup year and then bosh! Another World Cup.
(I think)
Two things though. The draw matters a lot here. Even a "very good" side can't seem to take the best shot of three top 5 teams in consecutive weeks. You need help either from the draw, a controversial decision or another team turning up spent playing their final a week before to make it through. So it's easier to navigate the tournament if you have a Japan or Fiji as your QF opponent, or even Argentina in 2011 after Carter went down.
The other thing is it is a lot easier to play above yourself if you resign yourself to the limitations of the side and focusing a narrow range of tactics which give you the best chance of victory on the day. It is hard to see an AB side doing this, unless maybe tipped over in the pool stages or in a major injury crisis in a key position like 2011.
Such a good point - our 2007 and 2019 RWC campaigns could have been so different had there not been big upsets during pool play.
Now, in 2019, we may very well have been beaten by England in a semi given their performance and the many issues with our 2019 side. But it would not have been because we put so much effort and attention into beating a "nemesis" in the QF
-
@junior said in All Blacks 2022:
Such a good point - our 2007 and 2019 RWC campaigns could have been so different had there not been big upsets during pool play.
Hell, every RWC the draw matters.
You see the path the eventual winners take, and it is so variable. SA 2007 got Fiji Argentina England to win. England had Aus France SA. They just aren't comparable challenges.
You cna't control it, but it has an influence. England would have had to beat Aus NZ SA in 2019 -- so it's swings and roundabouts.
Somehow, though, the draw hasn't favoured the ABs yet. Hopefully 2023 eh
-
@booboo said in All Blacks 2022:
@hooroo said in All Blacks 2022:
@mariner4life said in All Blacks 2022:
@kiwiwomble said in All Blacks 2022:
@chimoaus said in All Blacks 2022:
Could this be a move by NZR to have Schmidt take over post WC? Schmidt and the Messiah might be an interesting combo.
i was wonder if it was a way to have other options in a string position to step in, anyone coming in from the outside is going to have a hard time the closer we get to the RWC....but a selector stepping in to help with the team he helped select?
this whole "the world cup takes 4 years to win" thing is absolute bullshit.
I am firmly of the belief that you could make significant changes in the year of and win the thing. It might suit you better because then the Eddie Jones' of the world do not have 4 years to plan for your plan.
The only one i can think of that appears to be a planned out campaign was England
You can be shit during the World Cup year and make the final, there is ample evidence of that
My gut feel is we still allow ourselves to believe it in NZ because it was tied to our "are we ever going to win this fucking thing?" malaise, and it is a nice way for AB coaches to manage expectations.
South Africa last world cup are case and point.
They sucked 12 months before the start of the world cup year and then bosh! Another World Cup.
(I think)
You did that to piss me off eh?
To be fair, I constantly get things like that wrong.
-
@hooroo said in All Blacks 2022:
@booboo said in All Blacks 2022:
@hooroo said in All Blacks 2022:
@mariner4life said in All Blacks 2022:
@kiwiwomble said in All Blacks 2022:
@chimoaus said in All Blacks 2022:
Could this be a move by NZR to have Schmidt take over post WC? Schmidt and the Messiah might be an interesting combo.
i was wonder if it was a way to have other options in a string position to step in, anyone coming in from the outside is going to have a hard time the closer we get to the RWC....but a selector stepping in to help with the team he helped select?
this whole "the world cup takes 4 years to win" thing is absolute bullshit.
I am firmly of the belief that you could make significant changes in the year of and win the thing. It might suit you better because then the Eddie Jones' of the world do not have 4 years to plan for your plan.
The only one i can think of that appears to be a planned out campaign was England
You can be shit during the World Cup year and make the final, there is ample evidence of that
My gut feel is we still allow ourselves to believe it in NZ because it was tied to our "are we ever going to win this fucking thing?" malaise, and it is a nice way for AB coaches to manage expectations.
South Africa last world cup are case and point.
They sucked 12 months before the start of the world cup year and then bosh! Another World Cup.
(I think)
You did that to piss me off eh?
To be fair, I constantly get things like that wrong.
At least it wasn't apostrophe abuse
-
@junior said in All Blacks 2022:
Now, in 2019, we may very well have been beaten by England in a semi given their performance and the many issues with our 2019 side. But it would not have been because we put so much effort and attention into beating a "nemesis" in the QF
similar to Eddie and beating the AB's...guess he hoped to play them in the final and not have to worry about who was next!
-
-
@chimoaus said in All Blacks 2022:
@akan004 Love Fosters enthusiasm, "we are tracking really well" then in another breath "We have learning and growth to do". I really hate these politician terms.
At least he didn't say he was on a journey.
-
@chimoaus said in All Blacks 2022:
@akan004 Love Fosters enthusiasm, "we are tracking really well" then in another breath "We have learning and growth to do". I really hate these politician terms.
Listening to the video in this post (https://www.forum.thesilverfern.com/post/673448) it seems that's all he's got.
-
@nzzp said in All Blacks 2022:
Somehow, though, the draw hasn't favoured the ABs yet. Hopefully 2023 eh
Limiting it to the professional era I would say 1999 and 2011 were overly generous draws for us.
In 1999 the two other contenders in a three team tournament drew each other in the semi final and we had the easiest quarter final.
In 2011 we played three runners up from the pool round in the knockout stage which is would probably dwelled on more as good luck if the run of injuries at 10 had not happened.
Its somewhat subjective, particularly in 2015, but in the pro era we seem to either draw the most dangerous 2nd place team (2003, 2007, 2019, 2023) or least dangerous 2nd place team (1999, 2011, 2015).
-
@rotated said in All Blacks 2022:
@nzzp said in All Blacks 2022:
Somehow, though, the draw hasn't favoured the ABs yet. Hopefully 2023 eh
Limiting it to the professional era I would say 1999 and 2011 were overly generous draws for us.
In 1999 the two other contenders in a three team tournament drew each other in the semi final and we had the easiest quarter final.
In 2011 we played three runners up from the pool round in the knockout stage which is would probably dwelled on more as good luck if the run of injuries at 10 had not happened.
2011 is definitely our "SA 2007" draw. The Argies were ordinary, the Aussies not much better, and we got France who tripped their way to the final after we had already flogged them
Injuries and the weight of history almost conspired to beat us.
-
@mariner4life I still can't understand why Boks didn't set up for a drop goal to push the lead out to more than 3 points in the QF vs Aussie when they had the ball 10 metres or so out near the posts.
-
@nzzp said in All Blacks 2022:
@junior said in All Blacks 2022:
Such a good point - our 2007 and 2019 RWC campaigns could have been so different had there not been big upsets during pool play.
Hell, every RWC the draw matters.
You see the path the eventual winners take, and it is so variable. SA 2007 got Fiji Argentina England to win. England had Aus France SA. They just aren't comparable challenges.
You cna't control it, but it has an influence. England would have had to beat Aus NZ SA in 2019 -- so it's swings and roundabouts.
Somehow, though, the draw hasn't favoured the ABs yet. Hopefully 2023 eh
I think 2011 was a pretty handy draw in hindsight
