Risk Analysis / Confidence Levels
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To stay on topic for once - I am both nervous and quietly confident. A card could screw either team and ruin the whole match. Fortunately Nigel is pretty level headed so it is up to the players to behave.
Completely different styles of play too, with Japan showing that we might be on the right track to beating Ireland along with the team that Hansen has selected.
I am going to buy more beer now as I don't think that 6 doz is going to get me through the rest of the day until the match. Getting quite tense already.
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I give it 60ish to 40ish in our favour.
Favouritism is more from Ireland's 2019 decline rather than any rise from us, but there are at least some encouraging signs of adjustment.As for consequence, nothing much imo. Coach and captain at the end of their careers anyway. Although a quarter final exit is much more stinging than a semi or final exit.
This will be a hard cup to win.
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9 hours til kick off and I've just cracked my 1st beer to soothe the nerves. I'm jittery.
Deep down I expect us to win going away. Sure Joe is a good coach and he'll have some tricks, and yeah the belief will be there in the Irish players. But the truth is also that they just haven't been that good for a while, and I'm not sure theirs is a group that can flick the switch and go straight from 60% to 100%. And they'll need to be at 100% to win this.
I predict a big coming of age performance from Richie, behind a dominant pack effort.
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@Snowy said in Risk Analysis / Confidence Levels:
@voodoo said in Risk Analysis / Confidence Levels:
I've just cracked my 1st beer
You really shouldn't drink alone - so cheers!
I'm jittery too.I appreciate that Snowy, thanks
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@taniwharugby said in Risk Analysis / Confidence Levels:
@nzzp said in Risk Analysis / Confidence Levels:
losing the warmup against Italy
C'mon, it was a draw 🤣
A draw is like a loss to the ABs. People often talk about us losing the Lions series. And fair enough too, fuck draws.
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I am nervous, but logically we shouldn't worry too much. We're a better team now than in 2018 and we've made changes to our game specifically to address the challenges of teams like Ireland.
Ireland on the other hand are clearly worse than 12 months ago.
Besides, though we were totally beaten up by Ireland last year we only lost by 7 points, and if Read doesn't drop the ball we probably would have been ok. Ireland will need to play very well and we'll need to be off our best - and even then we still probably win.
Concerns revolve around a card and our scrum, particularly as the reserves come on.
I don't rule a loss out, but I'd be very surprised.
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@Damo that is my starting position to. Then I think about the vageries of knockout rugby and the current state of laws/rulings!!
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@Snowy cracked now the lawns are done.
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@taniwharugby said in Risk Analysis / Confidence Levels:
@Snowy cracked now the lawns are done.
Going to do lawns now to fill in time. Tractor has a bottle holder but should have more of them, and a chilly bin. A fridge would actually be really good. I'll get on to Kubota with my best wishes for their team and my suggestion.
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@Crucial said in Risk Analysis / Confidence Levels:
@Nepia said in Risk Analysis / Confidence Levels:
I'm about to watch Round 1 of whether this will be a successful day. TBH, lose either and this will be a shit day.
One is fine.
The first one.
Nope, will still be a shit day ... I'll just be slightly less grumpy as I go to bed.
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As for consequences if we lose. Hansen will be tarnished a little bit, but not that much. Foster won't become coach, and there will likely be a wholly new coaching panel appointed - hopefully including Jamie Joseph and Tony Brown.
Read's career will be somewhat tarnished I think. He'll be remembered as a captain that didn't quite live up to the hype.
I doubt there will be wailing and gnashing of teeth like in 1999 and 2007. We have won two in a row and got the monkey off the back.
