RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2)
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I feel pretty good but I would have been happier with Bender in there, especially as I thought he was good off the bench. I like Goodhue because he goes low and has low red card risk. Ireland are always in with a chance but my base case is we win by more than a score with a meaningful chance that we give them a hiding.
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@antipodean said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):
@MajorRage said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):
EDIT - Just to add a bit more context. Despite us getting destroyed on the scoreboard vs Aussie this year, I'd still put the Irish victory over us last year as the bigger of the drubbings. We had nothing in that game and they got over our line 3 times.
Disagree - we left lots of points out there.
Correct. We disagree.
Only one I can think of is Read's knock on after the charge down.
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@DMX said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):
I feel pretty good but I would have been happier with Bender in there, especially as I thought he was good off the bench. I like Goodhue because he goes low and has low red card lift. Ireland are always in with a chance but my base case is we win by more than a score with a meaningful chance that we give them a hiding.
Yeah probably a risk they didn't need to take with BFA, what with him having a propensity to spend time off the field in RWC finals games.
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Always thought Ireland would be a great place to host a RWC.
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@Victor-Meldrew said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):
Always thought Ireland would be a great place to host a RWC.
I'm sure the group stages would be great craic, not sure they are capable of hosting games past the QFs though.
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@Victor-Meldrew said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):
Always thought Ireland would be a great place to host a RWC.
Someone said they thought it was a bit small?
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@jegga said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):
Someone said they thought it was a bit small?
Not too sure, but thought the idea was to share some games with Scotland and Wales. Dublin has 2 big stadiums and Belfast's Windsor Park is also pretty big - and there's quite a few big GAA places in Cork etc.
As Irish rugby is all of Ireland, it would a great way to showcase the country and it's passion for the game. Welcome would be pretty warm, that's for sure.
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@Victor-Meldrew said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):
Always thought Ireland would be a great place to host a RWC.
Yeah, the capital has some fabulous stadiums. Wembley, Emirates and West Ham’s home are all terrific 😉
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@junior said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):
I didn't realise Cruden played in 2007...?
He rolled out into the final in 2011, under the white heat of pressure and was very good. Despite being the definition of green. The thing is, good players in form are good players in form.
You tend to get experience because you are good, not good because you have experience. Slightly different for the leadership team, naturally, where having seen everything the world throws at you is good, but a few youngsters around the place is also a good thing.
In any event, it's the combination that is relatively untested. McAlister made his AB debut in 2005 and Mils in 2003 - we therefore had "plenty" of experience in our midfield in 2007 by your definition.
Not just my definition. We actually did. It wasn't the lack of experience in the outside backs that lost us that game.
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Cruden had been left out of the RWC squad because of poor performance and his place had been taken by Colin Slade if I recall correctly. He was on or about to go on honeymoon when he got the call. In his short time he played like a guy with a second chance
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@No-Quarter said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):
@ACT-Crusader said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):
@No-Quarter said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):
It’s only Ireland...
You're gonna have to ban yourself if we lose.
I'm gonna make a fcking emerald green hat out of him if we lose.
You just can't say that shit. Ask Fitzy. @Bones is pushing the limits with comments about the bench. @booboo should be going to bed now, not leaving it until half time like the Namibia match.
Fair to say that I might be a little superstitious and nervous about this.
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@Chester-Draws said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):
@junior said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):
I didn't realise Cruden played in 2007...?
He rolled out into the final in 2011, under the white heat of pressure and was very good. Despite being the definition of green. The thing is, good players in form are good players in form.
You tend to get experience because you are good, not good because you have experience. Slightly different for the leadership team, naturally, where having seen everything the world throws at you is good, but a few youngsters around the place is also a good thing.
In any event, it's the combination that is relatively untested. McAlister made his AB debut in 2005 and Mils in 2003 - we therefore had "plenty" of experience in our midfield in 2007 by your definition.
Not just my definition. We actually did. It wasn't the lack of experience in the outside backs that lost us that game.
I think when we have lost in the past , people have looked for reasons , not saying all those things didn’t contribute, But people get desperate to blame something. I remember 2007 , rotation was blamed by some . Still not sure how that lost that game.
Guarantee if we lose sat, similar things will be said, beaudie should’ve been at 10, smith at fb etc etc
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@JC said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):
@Victor-Meldrew said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):
Always thought Ireland would be a great place to host a RWC.
Yeah, the capital has some fabulous stadiums. Wembley, Emirates and West Ham’s home are all terrific 😉
Look I was assured Ireland was too small, the stadiums were too old and there’s nothing to do there . There was a whole thread about it. Are you saying Poulsen was full of shit?
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@kiwiinmelb said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):
I remember 2007 , rotation was blamed by some . Still not sure how that lost that game.
Simples. France adapted better to the Ref than we did.
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@Victor-Meldrew said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):
France adapted better to the Ref than we did.
France adapted better to the lack of a ref than we did.
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@Snowy said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):
@Victor-Meldrew said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):
France adapted better to the Ref than we did.
France adapted better to the lack of a ref than we did.
Same Same
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@kiwiinmelb yep, is such a fineline...
If we win on Saturday, these decisions will be considered great, if we lose, they will be the dumbest and even a blind man could see they were wrong.
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@Daffy-Jaffy This article has some stats for the 8 QF teams based on pool play. Aura makes an appearance too.
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TOKYO, 15 Oct – After four intense weeks of competition, the quarter-finals of Rugby World Cup 2019 are upon us. Here our stats team take a look at the key statistical trends that have emerged from the pool stage and evaluate what this could mean for some of the heavyweight encounters ahead.
How do you solve a problem like New Zealand?
Heading into this World Cup, there were murmurs that the All Blacks were looking unusually vulnerable, their aura of invincibility tarnished by a string of sub-par performances, which culminated in a heavy Rugby Championship defeat by Australia in mid-August.
But over the course of three pool-stage matches, the question marks have steadily receded and they go into the game against Ireland as clear favourites. The 1987, 2011 and 2015 champions appear to be peaking at the right time. New Zealand are supreme for almost all of the main attacking metrics, although two of their three matches were against Tier 2 opponents Namibia and Canada.
With their lightning transition from defence to attack, the All Blacks rank top for metres gained, clean breaks and defenders beaten, and, unsurprisingly, have completed more offloads than any other team.
Worryingly for Ireland, the All Blacks are the only team left to boast a 100 per cent scrum success record, while their kickers have the highest conversion percentage (84 per cent) of any of the quarter-finalists.
But there are aspects of their game Ireland can call on to improve their chances. For starters, this match pits the most lethal attacking force against the tournament’s most miserly defence. When Ireland recorded their historic 16-9 win over New Zealand last November, above, they defended as though their lives depended on it and they could again prove tricky to break down.
Despite being in arguably the toughest pool, Ireland have only conceded two tries, and have the best tackle success percentage of any team at the World Cup. What is more, no side has missed fewer tackles.
In addition, the Springboks exposed a handful of weaknesses in the All Blacks in their opening weekend clash, most notably at the lineout where they managed to exert huge pressure.
New Zealand have the lowest lineout success rate of any of the teams left in the competition, although at 90 per cent, this is still very high. The lineout was an area Ireland exploited to the full when they beat New Zealand last year, and it will be very much in their plans as they prepare for Saturday’s clash.
Kicking holds key to Welsh success
The pool stages were a mixed bag for Wales, going from the high of their brilliant win over Australia to mixed displays against Fiji and Uruguay. In particular, Wales looked vulnerable defensively at times and the stats show that they have missed more tackles than any of the eight teams left in the tournament.
Welsh handling was poor at times against Uruguay and they repeatedly squandered opportunities, making 16 handling errors compared to just six in their clinical display against Australia. Wales know they will need to improve on this against France, but one area they can be confident in is their kicking.
In Dan Biggar, Leigh Halfpenny and Rhys Patchell, below, Wales have one of the most reliable kicking trios in the game. They have the second-best conversion record (83 per cent) of all the quarter-finalists, just behind New Zealand, and that could go a long way to helping them past France.
Wallabies living dangerously
In most previous World Cup clashes between England and Australia, the scrum has been absolutely crucial. The dominant English forwards bullied the Wallabies into submission in the 2007 quarter-finals, while Australia returned the favour as they knocked England out of their own World Cup four years ago.
This time around, the scrum may be an area of concern for the Wallabies rather than a strength. They ranked 15th out of the 20 nations for scrum success rate during the pool stages and the Wallabies have also struggled with poor discipline. Of the eight quarter-finalists, no team has received more yellow cards so far than Australia, and only France have conceded more penalties.
The Wallabies know they will need to tighten up considerably if they are to reach another World Cup semi-final.
