Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?
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@sparky said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
Joe Schmidt (or Warren Gatland if he is unavailable) as Head Coach. They coach the international teams ranked two and three in the world so they know what they are doing.
In terms of assistants, Greg Feek looking after the Forwards, Scott Robertson looking after the breakdown and the defence, Ian Foster coaching the backs. Grant Fox to stay as a selector.
I agree. Razor is the future but the head coach of a top tier test team is more about man management and overseeing the big picture than actual coaching. He needs the experience that Schmidt and Gatland have
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I haven't voted as unless something calamitous happens in Japan I'm certain it will be Foster. I can also find reasons not to pick any of the other contenders.
It does remind me of the collective Fern wisdom from 8 years ago. Hansen's going to be a disaster. He has no real head coaching experience apart from Wales and look how they went under him. He fucked up everything he touched in the AB's was just lucky to have Henry and Smith to tidy up after him. The media will destroy him. He has no personality. He'll undo all the good work of the last 4 years.......
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@rotated said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
@tordah said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
and both had tremendous success with NZ U20s to boot
The 2016 Under 20's World Cup effort was the worst performance by one of our men's XVs at an IRB event.
Yep. Rennie was 3/3 with the U20s. Robertson is 1/2 and that 2016 U20s were terrible.
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@kirwan said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
If Schmit is unavailable then I’d go Robertson. Has had success at each level he’s had, and Blackadder showed that wasn’t a slam dunk just cause Crusaders.
Rennie without Wayne Smith would be a risk IMO.
Don’t want Gatland anywhere near the ABs.
This. I do wonder if Rennie and Robertson could be a good combo.
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@dogmeat said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
It does remind me of the collective Fern wisdom from 8 years ago. Hansen's going to be a disaster. He has no real head coaching experience apart from Wales and look how they went under him. He fucked up everything he touched in the AB's was just lucky to have Henry and Smith to tidy up after him. The media will destroy him. He has no personality. He'll undo all the good work of the last 4 years.......
To be fair in 2011 we didn't have the foresight that the the entire leadership group would kick on for the next four years, relatively injury free and playing consistently a high level.
After the final whistle at Eden Park McCaw needed major foot surgery, Carter had just torn his ACL which is career-altering and with the Euros were being thrown around it wouldn't have been a shock to see the midfield get broken up. In the end they all stayed and exceeded most expectations, and then Wayne Smith came back when it mattered.
If Japan goes pear shaped the post 2015 era will be looked at in retrospect as being a very average one which should have been a lot worse if Australia had their act together.
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@rotated said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
@dogmeat said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
It does remind me of the collective Fern wisdom from 8 years ago. Hansen's going to be a disaster. He has no real head coaching experience apart from Wales and look how they went under him. He fucked up everything he touched in the AB's was just lucky to have Henry and Smith to tidy up after him. The media will destroy him. He has no personality. He'll undo all the good work of the last 4 years.......
To be fair in 2011 we didn't have the foresight that the the entire leadership group would kick on for the next four years, relatively injury free and playing consistently a high level.
After the final whistle at Eden Park McCaw needed major foot surgery, Carter had just torn his ACL which is career-altering and with the Euros were being thrown around it wouldn't have been a shock to see the midfield get broken up. In the end they all stayed and exceeded most expectations, and then Wayne Smith came back when it mattered.
If Japan goes pear shaped the post 2015 era will be looked at in retrospect as being a very average one which should have been a lot worse if Australia had their act together.
That a bit harsh isn't it? A quick look on ABs.com gives the following stats
2016-2018
Played 42
Won 36
Lost 5
Drew 1Win % 85.7%
Compare that to the career win percentages of all the AB coaches in the RWC era
Sir Brian Lochore 1985–87 18 14 1 3 77.8%
Alex Wyllie 1988–91 29 25 1 3 86.2%
Laurie Mains 1992–95 34 23 1 10 67.6%
John Hart 1996–99 41 31 1 9 75.6%
Wayne Smith 2000–01 17 12 0 5 70.6%
John Mitchell[170] 2002–03 28 23 1 4 82.1%
Sir Graham Henry[171] 2004–11 103 88 0 15 85.4%
Steve Hansen 2012– 95 84 3 8 88.4%So Hansen's % in the post 2015 era is still higher than the rest of the group. I believe it is unfair to judge him based on whether he wins the RWC or not, only 3 coaches on that list (including the man himself) have coached a winning RWC AB team
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@canefan said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
I believe it is unfair to judge him based on whether he wins the RWC or not, only 3 coaches on that list (including the man himself) have coached a winning RWC AB team
What if Hansen's trajectory as head coach is the same as John Hart's except twice as long?
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@rotated said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
@canefan said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
I believe it is unfair to judge him based on whether he wins the RWC or not, only 3 coaches on that list (including the man himself) have coached a winning RWC AB team
What if Hansen's trajectory as head coach is the same as John Hart's except twice as long?
John Hart never won a RWC. Hansen never experienced a year like 1998 (IIRC?) When we lost. A lot
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@rotated said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
@canefan said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
I believe it is unfair to judge him based on whether he wins the RWC or not, only 3 coaches on that list (including the man himself) have coached a winning RWC AB team
What if Hansen's trajectory as head coach is the same as John Hart's except twice as long?
well, i guess, soon they will both be ex-All Black coaches, so you are right there. Just wrong everywhere else
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@canefan said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
John Hart never won a RWC. Hansen never experienced a year like 1998 (IIRC?) When we lost. A lot
John Hart won in South Africa and lost one game in the first half of his tenure. I would say in terms of being outplayed for long stretches of the season this year was the worst since 1998. We would have nudged the same win/loss record with a dropped ball in Pretoria and a dodgy TMO call (or onside defender) at Twickers.
I'm not arguing the relative merits of Hansen here, simply pointing out despite seven years of good results his legacy is by no means set in stone - the NZ rugby public is that fickle. If we lose the RWC the historic losses to Ireland and blown Lions series will be looked at in retrospect as massive failings and warning signs. Similarly if Hart's team won 1999 his tenure is viewed as three great years and a tough injury ravaged year where they lost a lot of experience and were a bit unlucky.
The one huge difference regardless of the outcome is obviously is that Hansen has lasted twice as long and still has the support of the team and board. Lose the Bledisloe along the way or lose the first pool game in 9 World Cups and it might be a different story.
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@rotated said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
@canefan said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
John Hart never won a RWC. Hansen never experienced a year like 1998 (IIRC?) When we lost. A lot
John Hart won in South Africa and lost one game in the first half of his tenure. I would say in terms of being outplayed for long stretches of the season this year was the worst since 1998. We would have nudged the same win/loss record with a dropped ball in Pretoria and a dodgy TMO call (or onside defender) at Twickers.
I'm not arguing the relative merits of Hansen here, simply pointing out despite seven years of good results his legacy is by no means set in stone - the NZ rugby public is that fickle. If we lose the RWC the historic losses to Ireland and blown Lions series will be looked at in retrospect as massive failings and warning signs. Similarly if Hart's team won 1999 his tenure is viewed as three great years and a tough injury ravaged year where they lost a lot of experience and were a bit unlucky.
The one huge difference regardless of the outcome is obviously is that Hansen has lasted twice as long and still has the support of the team and board. Lose the Bledisloe along the way or lose the first pool game in 9 World Cups and it might be a different story.
Mate you've been at the Xmas Sherry haven't you.
Hart did phenomenally well in 96/7 but largely with an inherited team that he grafted a couple of players on to.
But 98 wasn't some sort of blip - it was arguably the worst year in AB history. We lost 5 tests in a row FFS
As soon as Hart had to actually coach / select his divisive nature became apparent. He was clutching at straws imagining he could pluck a rabbit out of a hat a la Kirwan.
Some of his rank bad decisions - off the top of my head. Appointing Randell capt and then asking him to play #8. Dropping Kronfeld for Mark Carter, dropping Jones for Royce Willis, assholing Bunce out without having a fucking clue who was going to replace him.
The atmosphere within the team by 99 was toxic. I don't think you can possibly compare Hart with Hansen or any of the other coaches of te professional era except for Mitchell.
Hansen's done an amazing job in terms of culture and all the other soft skills whilst replacing legends (something Hart failed at abjectly) and continuing to fashion an amazing winning record.
Hart spent eight years undermining the 2 previous AB coaches with the support of the likes of Eddie Tonks and then when he got his chance failed miserably.
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@dogmeat said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
dropping Jones for Royce Willis,
Agree with most of that, but Maxwell took Jones' place and then it was down to who made a better reserve - Willis had more impact. Also wasn't Kronfled dropped for Blowers on occasion and not Carter? One of Carter's two test in 1998 was as reserve replacement for Kronfeld.
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@rotated said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
@tordah said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
and both had tremendous success with NZ U20s to boot
The 2016 Under 20's World Cup effort was the worst performance by one of our men's XVs at an IRB event.
Ah, dind't remember Robertson had them twice. Well, Rennie was good, haha
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@dogmeat I think you might be massively underestimating the difficulty for an AB side (as favourites) to exit the World Cup in a way that the coaches reputation will survive the autopsy.
@dogmeat said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
Hart did phenomenally well in 96/7 but largely with an inherited team that he grafted a couple of players on to.
Agreed, Hansen did phenomenally well in the first half of his tenure with an inherited team - thus the comparison.
But 98 wasn't some sort of blip - it was arguably the worst year in AB history. We lost 5 tests in a row FFS
Failing to win the Lions series for only the second time in 12 tours will be considered historically bad. Being the only coach to lose to Ireland (twice) will likely look historically bad 20 years later if things revert to type.
As soon as Hart had to actually coach / select his divisive nature became apparent. He was clutching at straws imagining he could pluck a rabbit out of a hat a la Kirwan.
That is a fair criticism and key difference. Most would agree that rightly or wrongly if things go pear shaped under Hansen it will be because he is too set in his ways and refuses to change course.
Some of his rank bad decisions - off the top of my head. Appointing Randell capt and then asking him to play #8. Dropping Kronfeld for Mark Carter, dropping Jones for Royce Willis, assholing Bunce out without having a fucking clue who was going to replace him.
This goes back to forgetting how brutal an RWC autopsy will be. The tale is yet to be told obviously but with ~8.5 spots up for grabs in the starting XV there is still plenty of latitude for selections that will be argued years later.
Kaino at lock and the Lions backline selections will be a very good start. If he manages to leave Akira at home, pick Fifita at 6 and SBW at 12 for the RWC that will be more than enough fuel to the fire. That's even without the possibility we might lose a tight one in part down to Barrett's kicking which Hansen has had no problem with.
The atmosphere within the team by 99 was toxic. I don't think you can possibly compare Hart with Hansen or any of the other coaches of te professional era except for Mitchell.
Hansen's done an amazing job in terms of culture and all the other soft skills whilst replacing legends (something Hart failed at abjectly) and continuing to fashion an amazing winning record.
Hart spent eight years undermining the 2 previous AB coaches with the support of the likes of Eddie Tonks and then when he got his chance failed miserably.To me it's less about the professional vs amateur eras than pre-2003 when AB coach was appointed by the unions which meant provincial horsetrading was part and parcel of getting the office vs the largely executive appointment than it is now. I'm hardly going to criticize Hart or anyone for being a product of their era and the process at the time.
The fact Hart's tenure is seen by you (and most) as a miserable failure despite two near-perfect years and the illusive SA tour win kind of proves the point. Mitch is a failure despite winning back the Bledisloe. Henry was a failure in 2007 despite the Lions Series and Grand Slam and effecting most of the culture change and return to consistency that you are giving to Hansen.
You are telling me Hansen's reputation is going to survive because he consistently won games in a tournament between the 5th, 6th and 10th best teams in the World?
If the ABs lose next year the general consensus will be after McCaw & co left what happened? They started losing to teams they've never lost to before, couldn't win the Lions series and then lost the RWC. Fin.
FWIW I think Hansen has been a great coach. I would have appointed him at the time and wouldn't have deviated. Overall I think we played better rugby under Henry, but obviously Henry's mainstream reputation completely changes if we concede a penalty against France.
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@rotated I think that the rugby public are more forgiving these days, once we got the monkey off our back. Hansen has proven himself to be a good man manager and generally a good judge of talent. He had the benefit of a core of all time great players but was able to retool the team from 2011 to win his own cup as head coach in 2015. There was always going to be a drop when players like McGod, DC, Smith and Nonu left, but we continued to win TRC titles and generally bossed the NH teams on the EOYTs. Time will tell but even if he fails to bring home Bill IMHO he's in the conversation for best AB coach. Winning the cup will only strengthen his claim
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@rotated said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
@canefan said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
John Hart never won a RWC. Hansen never experienced a year like 1998 (IIRC?) When we lost. A lot
I'm not arguing the relative merits of Hansen here, simply pointing out despite seven years of good results his legacy is by no means set in stone - the NZ rugby public is that fickle. If we lose the RWC the historic losses to Ireland and blown Lions series will be looked at in retrospect as massive failings and warning signs. Similarly if Hart's team won 1999 his tenure is viewed as three great years and a tough injury ravaged year where they lost a lot of experience and were a bit unlucky.
I see where you're coming from with this - and if Hansen has a disastrous final year then his legacy won't be quite as good as it looks right now - where I think a lot of people have him down as the AB's greatest ever coach. If he wins the 2019RWC, I think you can pretty much put a seal on that.
Even with a disastrous year - somehow losing the Bledisloe, the 4N and going out in the QFs of RWC - I don't think Hansen would remotely fall back to Hart's level - though Sir Ted, Sir Fred and Sir BJ (can't get the third rhyme) would probably slide back in front.
Hart's problem was that half the country couldn't stand him when he started and his other problem was that he'd hardly coached for about a decade when he started. On the first point, people were happy to pile into him when he lost (much like Mitch).
Shag's already got the redemptive Cups in the bag.
On the Lions, history tends to forget the details - but, the second test will pretty much be remembered as Sonny-Bill burning the cake at the Caketin (much like Rodney at Rustenburg).
Third test - the outside backs were missing SBW, Crotty, Ioane and BFA, plus Kaino got carded - and it still took dodgy reffing of 1905 calibre to deny us!
For me, it was an indicator that we weren't quite as far ahead of the rest of the world as we thought - and our much vaunted depth isn't quite what we thought.
All that said - I reckon we're still a pretty good chance to win next year.
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@chris-b said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
For me, it was an indicator that we weren't quite as far ahead of the rest of the world as we thought - and our much vaunted depth isn't quite what we thought.
We also had to test our injury depth. Laumape debuted in Test 1 off the bench - and BFA disappeared for the series. From an injury front, the Lions tour was spot on for them, so well done Gats for getting lucky!
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@nzzp The Lions did have a few injury problems of their own, but not to the same degree as the ABs. Hogg, for example, was expected to be the starting fullback. Billy Vunipola didn't even make the tour. A few others were injured before the 2nd test.
