Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?
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@nepia said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
Want: Rennie and Robertson combo, I don't mind who is head coach.
Expect: Foster.
Don't really want despite the hype (because I have an elephant memory when I feel like it): Schmidt.
Edit: As I could only have one vote I picked Rennie.
I agree on all counts, the Chiefs in 2012/2013 and then Crusaders in 2017/2018 showed clear signs of superb coaching, and both had tremendous success with NZ U20s to boot
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Razor with Sir R Deans in the Fox role as selector
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Joe Schmidt (or Warren Gatland if he is unavailable) as Head Coach. They coach the international teams ranked two and three in the world so they know what they are doing.
In terms of assistants, Greg Feek looking after the Forwards, Scott Robertson looking after the breakdown and the defence, Ian Foster coaching the backs. Grant Fox to stay as a selector.
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Razor.
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@sparky said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
Joe Schmidt (or Warren Gatland if he is unavailable) as Head Coach. They coach the international teams ranked two and three in the world so they know what they are doing.
In terms of assistants, Greg Feek looking after the Forwards, Scott Robertson looking after the breakdown and the defence, Ian Foster coaching the backs. Grant Fox to stay as a selector.
I agree. Razor is the future but the head coach of a top tier test team is more about man management and overseeing the big picture than actual coaching. He needs the experience that Schmidt and Gatland have
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I haven't voted as unless something calamitous happens in Japan I'm certain it will be Foster. I can also find reasons not to pick any of the other contenders.
It does remind me of the collective Fern wisdom from 8 years ago. Hansen's going to be a disaster. He has no real head coaching experience apart from Wales and look how they went under him. He fucked up everything he touched in the AB's was just lucky to have Henry and Smith to tidy up after him. The media will destroy him. He has no personality. He'll undo all the good work of the last 4 years.......
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@rotated said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
@tordah said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
and both had tremendous success with NZ U20s to boot
The 2016 Under 20's World Cup effort was the worst performance by one of our men's XVs at an IRB event.
Yep. Rennie was 3/3 with the U20s. Robertson is 1/2 and that 2016 U20s were terrible.
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@kirwan said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
If Schmit is unavailable then I’d go Robertson. Has had success at each level he’s had, and Blackadder showed that wasn’t a slam dunk just cause Crusaders.
Rennie without Wayne Smith would be a risk IMO.
Don’t want Gatland anywhere near the ABs.
This. I do wonder if Rennie and Robertson could be a good combo.
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@dogmeat said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
It does remind me of the collective Fern wisdom from 8 years ago. Hansen's going to be a disaster. He has no real head coaching experience apart from Wales and look how they went under him. He fucked up everything he touched in the AB's was just lucky to have Henry and Smith to tidy up after him. The media will destroy him. He has no personality. He'll undo all the good work of the last 4 years.......
To be fair in 2011 we didn't have the foresight that the the entire leadership group would kick on for the next four years, relatively injury free and playing consistently a high level.
After the final whistle at Eden Park McCaw needed major foot surgery, Carter had just torn his ACL which is career-altering and with the Euros were being thrown around it wouldn't have been a shock to see the midfield get broken up. In the end they all stayed and exceeded most expectations, and then Wayne Smith came back when it mattered.
If Japan goes pear shaped the post 2015 era will be looked at in retrospect as being a very average one which should have been a lot worse if Australia had their act together.
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@rotated said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
@dogmeat said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
It does remind me of the collective Fern wisdom from 8 years ago. Hansen's going to be a disaster. He has no real head coaching experience apart from Wales and look how they went under him. He fucked up everything he touched in the AB's was just lucky to have Henry and Smith to tidy up after him. The media will destroy him. He has no personality. He'll undo all the good work of the last 4 years.......
To be fair in 2011 we didn't have the foresight that the the entire leadership group would kick on for the next four years, relatively injury free and playing consistently a high level.
After the final whistle at Eden Park McCaw needed major foot surgery, Carter had just torn his ACL which is career-altering and with the Euros were being thrown around it wouldn't have been a shock to see the midfield get broken up. In the end they all stayed and exceeded most expectations, and then Wayne Smith came back when it mattered.
If Japan goes pear shaped the post 2015 era will be looked at in retrospect as being a very average one which should have been a lot worse if Australia had their act together.
That a bit harsh isn't it? A quick look on ABs.com gives the following stats
2016-2018
Played 42
Won 36
Lost 5
Drew 1Win % 85.7%
Compare that to the career win percentages of all the AB coaches in the RWC era
Sir Brian Lochore 1985–87 18 14 1 3 77.8%
Alex Wyllie 1988–91 29 25 1 3 86.2%
Laurie Mains 1992–95 34 23 1 10 67.6%
John Hart 1996–99 41 31 1 9 75.6%
Wayne Smith 2000–01 17 12 0 5 70.6%
John Mitchell[170] 2002–03 28 23 1 4 82.1%
Sir Graham Henry[171] 2004–11 103 88 0 15 85.4%
Steve Hansen 2012– 95 84 3 8 88.4%So Hansen's % in the post 2015 era is still higher than the rest of the group. I believe it is unfair to judge him based on whether he wins the RWC or not, only 3 coaches on that list (including the man himself) have coached a winning RWC AB team
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@canefan said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
I believe it is unfair to judge him based on whether he wins the RWC or not, only 3 coaches on that list (including the man himself) have coached a winning RWC AB team
What if Hansen's trajectory as head coach is the same as John Hart's except twice as long?
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@rotated said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
@canefan said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
I believe it is unfair to judge him based on whether he wins the RWC or not, only 3 coaches on that list (including the man himself) have coached a winning RWC AB team
What if Hansen's trajectory as head coach is the same as John Hart's except twice as long?
John Hart never won a RWC. Hansen never experienced a year like 1998 (IIRC?) When we lost. A lot
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@rotated said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
@canefan said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
I believe it is unfair to judge him based on whether he wins the RWC or not, only 3 coaches on that list (including the man himself) have coached a winning RWC AB team
What if Hansen's trajectory as head coach is the same as John Hart's except twice as long?
well, i guess, soon they will both be ex-All Black coaches, so you are right there. Just wrong everywhere else
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@canefan said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
John Hart never won a RWC. Hansen never experienced a year like 1998 (IIRC?) When we lost. A lot
John Hart won in South Africa and lost one game in the first half of his tenure. I would say in terms of being outplayed for long stretches of the season this year was the worst since 1998. We would have nudged the same win/loss record with a dropped ball in Pretoria and a dodgy TMO call (or onside defender) at Twickers.
I'm not arguing the relative merits of Hansen here, simply pointing out despite seven years of good results his legacy is by no means set in stone - the NZ rugby public is that fickle. If we lose the RWC the historic losses to Ireland and blown Lions series will be looked at in retrospect as massive failings and warning signs. Similarly if Hart's team won 1999 his tenure is viewed as three great years and a tough injury ravaged year where they lost a lot of experience and were a bit unlucky.
The one huge difference regardless of the outcome is obviously is that Hansen has lasted twice as long and still has the support of the team and board. Lose the Bledisloe along the way or lose the first pool game in 9 World Cups and it might be a different story.
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@rotated said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
@canefan said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
John Hart never won a RWC. Hansen never experienced a year like 1998 (IIRC?) When we lost. A lot
John Hart won in South Africa and lost one game in the first half of his tenure. I would say in terms of being outplayed for long stretches of the season this year was the worst since 1998. We would have nudged the same win/loss record with a dropped ball in Pretoria and a dodgy TMO call (or onside defender) at Twickers.
I'm not arguing the relative merits of Hansen here, simply pointing out despite seven years of good results his legacy is by no means set in stone - the NZ rugby public is that fickle. If we lose the RWC the historic losses to Ireland and blown Lions series will be looked at in retrospect as massive failings and warning signs. Similarly if Hart's team won 1999 his tenure is viewed as three great years and a tough injury ravaged year where they lost a lot of experience and were a bit unlucky.
The one huge difference regardless of the outcome is obviously is that Hansen has lasted twice as long and still has the support of the team and board. Lose the Bledisloe along the way or lose the first pool game in 9 World Cups and it might be a different story.
Mate you've been at the Xmas Sherry haven't you.
Hart did phenomenally well in 96/7 but largely with an inherited team that he grafted a couple of players on to.
But 98 wasn't some sort of blip - it was arguably the worst year in AB history. We lost 5 tests in a row FFS
As soon as Hart had to actually coach / select his divisive nature became apparent. He was clutching at straws imagining he could pluck a rabbit out of a hat a la Kirwan.
Some of his rank bad decisions - off the top of my head. Appointing Randell capt and then asking him to play #8. Dropping Kronfeld for Mark Carter, dropping Jones for Royce Willis, assholing Bunce out without having a fucking clue who was going to replace him.
The atmosphere within the team by 99 was toxic. I don't think you can possibly compare Hart with Hansen or any of the other coaches of te professional era except for Mitchell.
Hansen's done an amazing job in terms of culture and all the other soft skills whilst replacing legends (something Hart failed at abjectly) and continuing to fashion an amazing winning record.
Hart spent eight years undermining the 2 previous AB coaches with the support of the likes of Eddie Tonks and then when he got his chance failed miserably.
