All Blacks v BI Lions Test #3
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NZ to win by 16-20 is 6/1
Lions to win by 6-10 is 12/1Hmmm. Heart or Head???
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@Pot-Hale always heart bro, always.
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@Pot-Hale said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #3:
NZ to win by 16-20 is 6/1
Lions to win by 6-10 is 12/1Hmmm. Heart or Head???
There's the view that it is always wise to bet against your team, then if they lose at least you've won some dosh. But by the cringe, any beer bought with that money would be bitter indeed.
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@Catogrande I never bet against my team, not the ABs or Northland (and the latter I could be make lots of money in small increments)
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I'll wait until team announcement and see if I get a feeling in me water
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@taniwharugby Yeah mate, I'm the same. I just can't bring myself to do it.
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@Crazy-Horse Great post. Interesting point about game breakers vs role players.
Speaking of game breakers. I think fairly or unfairly from an AB point of view a lot of eyes are going to be on Beauden Barrett in this game. He's the reigning World Player of the Year (leaving aside the history of this award is a little suspect) and he's replacing a guy who in the last Lions tour had one of the greatest 10 performances of all time - unfairly he's naturally going to be compared to Carter.
Now for Beauden he hasn't had the smoothest series - he's had to move back to fullback, his backline keeps changing, he's missed some kicks in Wellington/down to 14 men in Wellington etc.
Beauden is known for being able to create a magic play to either score or create a try. So far that hasn't happened in the series.
Can the Lions contain him in the 3rd test or will be spark something. It will be fascinating.
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@Pot-Hale said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #3:
I'll wait until team announcement and see if I get a feeling in me water
I think that will be Thursday, but you guys don't always play by the rules
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@Catogrande said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #3:
@Crazy-Horse Thanks for your thoughts mate, very interesting and nice to see some credit being attributed to the Lions; however I don't share your concerns re the All Blacks, they've not been too bad mate.
Interesting view on the rush/offside defence thing. For sure a rush defence is going to be on the margin all bloody game, but a few things make me think that it isn't quite as bad as has been suggested. As you've said, whilst this has been an issue for fans all the way through, it has not been quite so much an issue for a selection of refs and ARs, of different nationalities. Also we have not heard anything much (at least up here we haven't) from the NZ coaching team. I know Hansen doesn't moan much in public but he does have blokes to do that for him when required. Lastly, the Lions have given up a fair few penalties for offside (as you will with a rush defence), so it is not as if it is not being policed. Yeah, no doubt some have been missed but that's pretty standard.
The line out shit is just fucking embarrassing though and I'm ashamed that we have an Englishman as forwards coach and line out specialist that is letting this happen. Refs should be all over that.
This is pretty much my view.
I don't think the Lions are camped offside, I think they time it well. Sometimes the man 3rd or 4th out does get offside and gets away with it, but only sometimes.They are more onside than the average nz SR team imo. But they need to be as the rush would accentuate it if they were a metre offside like the typical NZ SR passive defence team.
The joker in the pack of refereeing the modern offside line is that often the 'last foot' is actually head and arms of an attacking team player doing naughty nonsense which stretches the length of a ruck while the defence has fanned out based on the (previous) last foot line.
So yes, I like Crucial's idea about the onus to be clearly onside , as offside is a bugbear of mine, but naughtiness of ruck cleanouts blowing over the ruck and grabbing people makes this subsequently harder to judge.
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As has been mentioned in the media over the last few days, I am expecting the ABs to bounce back like they did in Dublin last year after the loss in Chicago. That doesn't mean it will be easy but BBBR's comments yesterday reiterate that the players themselves know what is required to give themselves the best chance to win.
Even though we AB fans don't like losing, the Lions win in Wellington was exactly what the series needed. These games are called tests for a reason and everything is on the line in Auckland for the players and coaches. For those of us lucky enough to be at Eden Park, these are the games to look forward to.
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Well if we do lose the 3rd test, at least the Saders are still on top of Super rugby
The key thing for me this week is how will our attack draw in more numbers. Lions were very effective in fanning out quickly and realigning the defensive line that there were very few gaps. When there were some opportunities, the Lions scrambled well but did give away penalties.
I know some are particularly beholden to the "must take the 3", but there was at least two occasions that I had hoped we kicked to the corner and maul from 5m out to create a try. That's not a criticism of taking kicks (Barrett exceeding my expectations on that front), but I am not averse to them trying what might seem risky but has been a pretty fruitful play for us.
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Good to see Aura made her way into this article!
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Aaron Smith:
"They wanted to make it a struggle at the ruck, and we weren't able to be assertive with our carries. But we didn't help ourselves and we didn't attack where they weren't, and that's something we're going to fix this week. There was a lot more space than we thought. We've learned a lot from this game. There were opportunities there. Those opportunities will present themselves again this Saturday and we've got to be good enough to see them, and take them."
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I noticed Smith hardly ever box kicked after the rogue penalty on Retallick as a a pillar.
Went the traditional route with pass back to the 10 for clearing kicks.
I like that they were adaptable.
But I don't like clearing via the 10. Get so much more distance from the 9 usually. Would prefer better pillars.
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@Rancid-Schnitzel he does raise some legitimate issues however
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@MiketheSnow said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #3:
@Billy-Tell said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #3:
The Lions have basically been unaffected by injury, they will have a core test team who will be well up for this.
This has been key in the incremental development of the Lions squad, Test 23 and game plan.
Don't get me wrong, I thought we'd blown it last Saturday and was left relieved but underwhelmed by the margin of victory.
But going into the decider we have a largely unchanged 23 who are peaking fitness wise, are more comfortable with the game plan, who trust each other, and who have a greater sense of how they're running off the ball and combining
Our losses have been gradual , so probably less fuss has been made of them . But if a few months ago we knew we would be going into a decider without , Coles , b smith , sbw and crotty , we might be getting a little nervous .
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@mariner4life said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #3:
@Rancid-Schnitzel he does raise some legitimate issues however
Most of it was knee-jerk hysteria though. Like I said, it reminds me of the RWC.
Of course the abs have deficiencies and are always beatable on a given day, but you could just as easily write a 50,000 word essay lamenting why the Lions very nearly lost to 14 men.
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@Rancid-Schnitzel said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #3:
Of course the abs have deficiencies and are always beatable on a given day, but you could just as easily write a 50,000 word essay lamenting why the Lions very nearly lost to 14 men.
I keep thinking of the counterfactual - how much damage would we do to the sport if we were able to beat the cream of the NH with 14 men. FFS, that's ridiculous - we shouldn't have been within 20 points of them. It's like we're playing on easy mode some days ... to lead with 5 to go was remarkable.
It's going to be huge this weekend. Like the first two test matches, if the ABs play to their potential, they win. We crushed them up front in Test 1 - being up by 30-8 with a couple of minutes to go is dominance. It's going to take a lot to beat this AB side, and some of that groundwork is already laid:
- Smith, Coles, SBW goooone
- French ref
- Wet weather
- Virtually an away game with visiting support
stuff it, I'll get our excuses in early. If we don't lose by less than 10 it's a victory, right?
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There really are some incredibly negative people in the AB fan base.
