How are the AB's tracking heading into the BIL series?
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@nzzp said in How are the AB's tracking heading into the BIL series?:
@Billy-Tell said in How are the AB's tracking heading into the BIL series?:
- Shields - this is his best season so far, he would have to grab his chance with both hands and then some,
I like Shields, but I'm worried his hands would drop the chance
Shields hands give me nightmares. I can see us hot on attack in the dying minutes going for the winning try and Shields shelling a simple pass to finish the game.
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@Bovidae said in How are the AB's tracking heading into the BIL series?:
@westcoastie said in How are the AB's tracking heading into the BIL series?:
Did Kaino win a Super title in 2003 with the Blues?
No, he debuted the following year.
I think Squire is better as an impact sub. He was poor in Chicago when he started. I'm sure Kaino will be fine but Messam is an experienced replacement if required. Like @mariner4life, I don't see Shields as an international quality loose forward.
I don't think you can rate anyone's ability in a test match on Chicago - that game was out of whack with everything, and Squire was a blindside in a team without recognised locks.
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@No-Quarter said in How are the AB's tracking heading into the BIL series?:
@nzzp said in How are the AB's tracking heading into the BIL series?:
@Billy-Tell said in How are the AB's tracking heading into the BIL series?:
- Shields - this is his best season so far, he would have to grab his chance with both hands and then some,
I like Shields, but I'm worried his hands would drop the chance
Shields hands give me nightmares. I can see us hot on attack in the dying minutes going for the winning try and Shields shelling a simple pass to finish the game.
It's not evident if it's a technique issue or lack of concentration.
I recall both Nonu and Lauaki having big problems losing the ball regularly once they were tackled. Both worked on their technique of how they held the ball once they hit the deck.
I reckon Shields could address this.
What it will likely boil down to when it comes to replacements/squad members is their workrate/fitness. The metrics the AB coaches use aren't readily accessible for punters through basic stats.
It's interesting on Squire because I think many were surprised to see him make it when he did, but he has been a good impact player so far.
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If kaino isn't ready , I think they will back their system and give squire the start because he is probably seen as the next cab off the rank.
And have a barret / tuipolotu type on the bench with ardie .
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Kaino will be fine...
But if hes not, and we're thinking of a lock at 6... Do we move S.Whitelock and breakup the best second row combo on the planet, or do we put S.Barrett at 6 (who everyone seems to be suggesting)
If we move Whitelock, who plays lock? S.Barrett? Romano seems to be going ok with Retallick at the Chiefs (and combination)
Then what does the bench look like? Tuipolutu and A.Savea? No lock cover, but Squire and A.Savea instead? Some merit in starting with three locks on the field to have that kind of bench impact later - its not going to be an open running affair from the get go. In fact I think the first test will unfold similar to 2005, we'll probably concede the first score, get back into it, then grab a try with 10-15 to go when it gets loose to make it safe whilst defending at the end as the Lions try to catchup.
I think we'll smash the Lions in test 2 or 3...especially test three if we've won the first two and they look to be no chance with 30min to go in test 3. -
@mimic I like your 6,7,8 combo, but I think that having Read & Savea together, is going to lead to confusion about who plays what role, the AB want Read to play the wide channels from 8. (and why would you move one of the worlds best 8's?) if he plays 6, surely he'll be expected to do some of Kaino's grunt work at 6. From Jerry Collins to Kaino, the AB's want a 6 that will smash people and make strong carries. Does Savea do all of that?
The counter argument is that I could see the AB's going with 6. Cane 7. Savea 8. Read but mixing and matching some of Kainos roles. They'll want Read at the back of the scrum, but maybe would sacrifice his roaming stuff to allow Ardie to do that...
End of the day, Kaino will be fine. I've read the suggestion the ABs might be happy for him to have 30-50 min vs Samoa, and then start from the bench in Test 1. But I think he'll start test 1. and just be told to go until you're exhausted. They'll want experience from the start I reckon.
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Could R.McCaw do a B.Lochore?
Richie went looking for pen and paper to leave a note on the kitchen table, for his wife. It said: “Gemma, gone to Auckland to play in the First Test. Ring you later”. Then he hopped in his car, drove out of retirement and to the airport where he hopped into his helicopter and flew to Eden Park.
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Out of the AB forwards, apart from Read (as captain), Retallick and Whitelock are 80 mins players. I don't think they'll need to be replaced unless there is an injury. Having a specialist lock on the bench would be insurance if one of those two went down early. There could be a lock in the reserves but the impact is more likely via loose forwards with Read moving into lock if required.
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I think I was trying to imply, that if we went Retallick as a lock, and Whitelock/Barrett as a 6, then we could clearly go with no lock on the bench and use Squire & Savea (most likely) for impact.
I don't think we can go without a lock on the bench in this series, even allowing for the 80min men we currently possess. Ultimately, we still searching for that lock/loosie hybrid - theres probably a couple around, but no-one thats quite close enough to be considered. -
I've never understood the hype about Shields. Some players have ab written all over them, but I've not seen that with him. And I say that as a biased Canes supporter.
It's a bit concerning that Kaino is apparently so irreplaceable. Having Barrett is a very interesting idea. He can obviously do the tight stuff well and is also handy with the ball in hand (although he's been a bit tits for hands recently). A Lions series isn't really the time for experimenting though. I reckon it'll be Squire. They've invested alot in him and hopefully he'll take it up a notch this year. Not a huge fan but he should be able to do the job.
I see the last Ireland game as a template for how this series is going to go down. They'll throw everything, including the kitchen sink, smashing it up through the forwards and try to recycle pill inch by inch all the way to the try line. It will be brutal.
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Shields was outstanding, particularly on defence in the canes run through to the final last year, am sure if he was in the AB set-up, they would get the best out of him.
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He's a very solid Super player, but I just can't see him in black. His hands are suspect and he isn't the greatest ball runner. I'm sure he would give 150% for the abs and wouldn't let us down, but imho there are simply better players.
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I understand what you are saying but I'd still be concerned if Hansen tried to manufacture a no.6 by playing Whitelock there. Even S Barrett hasn't played enough in that position to say with any confidence he could do that role for the ABs NOW. As many others have said, Squire would probably fill that spot if Kaino was unavailable.
If you want a specialist lock on the bench then Barrett might be the best option as he could move to the side of the scrum, allowing you to include Savea. But a fully fit and in form Tuipulotu gives you maximum impact.
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@Tim said in How are the AB's tracking heading into the BIL series?:
Shields has been a lot better than Dixon and Taufua over the last two years. Consistently better than Squire too.
He was overhyped early in his career though.
Yeah, I think he's suffering in perception a bit from the early hype. His stats in Super this year are off the charts compared to other 6s (including Kaino).
Stats never tell the full story but you wont get really good ststs from a rubbish player and vice versa.Per game against Kaino he is carrying more, making more metres, more breaks, more lineout takes, more lineout steals, more tackles, better tackle %.
His only worse stat is turnovers conceded which I guess is the tits for hands being mentioned.
Fix that and there's no reason he shouldn't be capable.
Edit: I never realised how much the Canes use Shields in the lineout. eg 18 takes and 2 steals to Squire's 0 and 2
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Do they have stats for decision making?
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@mariner4life said in How are the AB's tracking heading into the BIL series?:
Do they have stats for decision making?
No, that's why stats don't tell the whole picture, but given that his decision making isn't losing games then it isn't a fatal flaw.
One thing I think is a big plus for test rugby is involvement. The more a player gets involved at Super level the better he is fitness wise, getting of the ground, reading play etc.
I doubt Shields will get a crack, the selectors have invested in Squire and he hasn't faded enough to be discarded.
I think Dixon may be under threat as a squaddie though. -
You make some good points @Crucial, given Shields' outstanding defense if worst came to worst the ABs could get him playing a really tight game where he just smacks blokes in the tackle, hits as many rucks as possible and is a lineout option, while others pick up more of the ball running responsibility.
But as you say Squire would be the next cab off the rank given he's been in the set up for some time now, and right now I'd be more comfortable with him, but Shields could do a job if absolutely required.
Now let's all say a prayer to Joe Pesci that Kaino will be fit.
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@Crucial said in How are the AB's tracking heading into the BIL series?:
@mariner4life said in How are the AB's tracking heading into the BIL series?:
Do they have stats for decision making?
No, that's why stats don't tell the whole picture, but given that his decision making isn't losing games then it isn't a fatal flaw.
One thing I think is a big plus for test rugby is involvement. The more a player gets involved at Super level the better he is fitness wise, getting of the ground, reading play etc.
I doubt Shields will get a crack, the selectors have invested in Squire and he hasn't faded enough to be discarded.
I think Dixon may be under threat as a squaddie though.I hope shields is given another chance in the squad. He is no worse than Dixon, probably better, and I don't want him giving up and going overseas. I think it's his best season so far. I'd still start squire ahead of him but he is worth a second look.
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I reckon the lesson we learnt out of that Chicago test is that we don't mess with positions in a big game. Specialists all the way.
Squire deserves that first crack is Kaino is unavailable, Luatua is an idiot for signing to leave (but only because that 6 jersey is there for someone to claim pretty shortly)
