Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?
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@ACT-Crusader said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
What’s with all the pessimism about our chances at the RWC? I watched all 6Ns tests and whilst some of the tests were decent, I didn’t see anything that said “wow, if they play like that they’ll beat the ABs”.
And last time I checked our SH counterparts were in a world of pain.
Is it a case of we aren’t beating teams by 20 or 30 therefore we are way back in the pack.
It's two factors:
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This side has lost whatever ability the pre-2015 side had to play better the higher the stakes were. Call it siege mentality, clinical focus, ability to pull finger, shift up a gear, big game temperament whatever... this team has been below par in all high stakes games this cycle.
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The side is seemingly more vulnerable in games for longer (all game for both SA tests, Ireland and Englnad). Couple that with the inability to raise the standard of performance when it matters and winning three big games on the trot (or even the first pool game) is a pretty daunting task.
I look at a test like the semi-final from 2015 against the Boks. If you put this side in the same spot after 60 minutes given their temperament and goal kicking there is a less than 50% chance they close it out based on the last few years.
There are too many moving parts to say they won't win the RWC. But I would one of these happen this year: lose the Bledisloe, lose our first pool game in RWC history or bundle out before the final.
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@rotated said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
@ACT-Crusader said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
What’s with all the pessimism about our chances at the RWC? I watched all 6Ns tests and whilst some of the tests were decent, I didn’t see anything that said “wow, if they play like that they’ll beat the ABs”.
And last time I checked our SH counterparts were in a world of pain.
Is it a case of we aren’t beating teams by 20 or 30 therefore we are way back in the pack.
It's two factors:
-
This side has lost whatever ability the pre-2015 side had to play better the higher the stakes were. Call it siege mentality, clinical focus, ability to pull finger, shift up a gear, big game temperament whatever... this team has been below par in all high stakes games this cycle.
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The side is seemingly more vulnerable in games for longer (all game for both SA tests, Ireland and Englnad). Couple that with the inability to raise the standard of performance when it matters and winning three big games on the trot (or even the first pool game) is a pretty daunting task.
I look at a test like the semi-final from 2015 against the Boks. If you put this side in the same spot after 60 minutes given their temperament and goal kicking there is a less than 50% chance they close it out based on the last few years.
There are too many moving parts to say they won't win the RWC. But I would one of these happen this year: lose the Bledisloe, lose our first pool game in RWC history or bundle out before the final.
I'm in @ACT-Crusader s camp on this one.
While 'keeping your powder dry' is an overused comment it is also misunderstood.
Hansen and Fozzie have not (as far as I know) starting suffering from Alzheimer's. They have gathered a lot of lessons in their reign and one of the biggest in RWCs is how not to be playing the complete plan a year out from the tournament. This is the time where you try (for good and bad) how other teams react to certain set-ups and what plans you want to tuck away.
I have no idea what the knockout gameplans are going to be at the RWC which is good. Is the constant kicking a real plan or is it a ploy to look like we are trying to perfect that tactic so that the opposition hang back a bit. One thing we know is that England especially are terrible at adjusting during a game.
I don't think there is some master plan being hidden away. It will be more subtle than that but we can't pre-judge how the ABs will play at the RWC based on last year.
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I remember there was a fair bit of pessimism around this time in 2015,
Richie and dan were past it , we were desperately trying to nurse them through, was the theory ,
As for this year, who bloody knows, I think we are as much of a chance as anyone else,
one thing we do have going for us more than anyone, is the knowledge and experience on how to win these tournaments, we have players going for their 2nd and third titles , that experience is invaluable
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@Crucial said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
I'm in @ACT-Crusader s camp on this one.
While 'keeping your powder dry' is an overused comment it is also misunderstood.
Hansen and Fozzie have not (as far as I know) starting suffering from Alzheimer's. They have gathered a lot of lessons in their reign and one of the biggest in RWCs is how not to be playing the complete plan a year out from the tournament.
Leaving the exact diagnosis aside there has been an ambivalence from Hansen and Fozzie this cycle that bothers me for sure. They've lost to Ireland for the first time in history (twice), are the second AB side to have an unsuccessful Lions series and were a last second try against the Boks and Lawes being millimetre offside from a 1998 level season... yet things are fine.
It is a fern pasttime to conduct the seemingly annual postmortum on the 1999/2003/2007 and I see plenty of similarities to some of those campaigns, particularly the first two. With the three major concerns being the acceptance of Beauden's sub-par goalkicking, the lack of an established centre combination and an attitude which seems to contradict the results on the park - likely in part to Hansen seeing this side as an extension of the McCaw sides.
That probably sounds a bit like the sky is falling, which isn't. The floor of a team with two world class locks, strong set piece and other quality players is only so low - and like the 2007/11 Boks teams they can and will be in the mix and be able to win it. But after the final two Lions series games and the much hyped Ireland/England fixtures last year there are rightfully question marks over this team in big games.
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@antipodean said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
@Snowy said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
@Jaguares4real said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
Plenty of worthy coaches for ABs: Cotter Rennie Gatland Schmidt etc
If only we knew who was available. Two of those probably not, so not that many worthy options.
So if the Lions coach is ruled out, and the bloke who said he wants a break for family reasons (Schmidt). Vern hasn't covered himself in glory (although that could be a cattle issue) and apparently Rennie is off to coach the Wallabies.
Options look thin.
I missed that. Really?
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@rotated said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
Hansen and Fozzie have not (as far as I know) starting suffering from Alzheimer's. They have gathered a lot of lessons in their reign and one of the biggest in RWCs is how not to be playing the complete plan a year out from the tournament.
Leaving the exact diagnosis aside there has been an ambivalence from Hansen and Fozzie this cycle that bothers me for sure. They've lost to Ireland for the first time in history (twice), are the second AB side to have an unsuccessful Lions series and were a last second try against the Boks and Lawes being millimetre offside from a 1998 level season... yet things are fine.
you've nailed it I think in your post. Good work.
I reckon we're about 40% chance to win the thing. Clearly favoured, but not the 2015 level dominance.
All world cup winners go through an absolute bum squeaker of a game at some stage. I think we're better equipped than pre-2011 to play through that, but we are not at the 2015 mental toughness yet. 2011 I'd argue we choked in the final, and only fell over the line due to home advantage and some individuals (RMac, JK and the forwards).
We are, as you say, a team with some real strengths, particularly up front. 6, midfield and right wing still are areas of concern for me. Coming up against 'nothing to lose' knockout opponents, who bring great line speed and discipline all night (Ireland, I'm looking at you), the games' going to turn into a low scoring shitfight. At that point, it can go either way.
That said, if we can get our brains right and execute, we could go Lions 1 all over again; slashing angled runs inside first or second receivers, loads of offloads, and a forward pack that just smashes what is in front of it. However, BB at 10 does make me nervous, along with our acceptance of poor goal kickign. One more injury at 10 and I"m sweating in my jocks
It's going to be a great tournament, can't wait. Roll on September
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@Machpants said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
Yeah we've got a better chance than any other team, but not that much better - it'll be a cracker! Esp as these will be the last games of rugby that mean anything until the next RWC - enjoy meaningful rugby whilst you can!
I'm hoping for a semifinal line of:
NZ SA ARG AUS
Restate world dominance for the southern hemisphere again
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@booboo said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
@antipodean said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
@Snowy said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
@Jaguares4real said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
Plenty of worthy coaches for ABs: Cotter Rennie Gatland Schmidt etc
If only we knew who was available. Two of those probably not, so not that many worthy options.
So if the Lions coach is ruled out, and the bloke who said he wants a break for family reasons (Schmidt). Vern hasn't covered himself in glory (although that could be a cattle issue) and apparently Rennie is off to coach the Wallabies.
Options look thin.
I missed that. Really?
It's legit
Been all over AUS & NZ media Check out Stuff, SMH etc
Makes sense His contract with Glasgow expires next year and Chieka won;t be around post RWC
Rennie is a big time coach & would make Wallabies a serious outfit again
Unlike Dingo Deans he has experience coaching Overseas before taking over an Int'l team
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@Jaguares4real said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
@booboo said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
@antipodean said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
@Snowy said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
@Jaguares4real said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
Plenty of worthy coaches for ABs: Cotter Rennie Gatland Schmidt etc
If only we knew who was available. Two of those probably not, so not that many worthy options.
So if the Lions coach is ruled out, and the bloke who said he wants a break for family reasons (Schmidt). Vern hasn't covered himself in glory (although that could be a cattle issue) and apparently Rennie is off to coach the Wallabies.
Options look thin.
I missed that. Really?
It's legit
Been all over AUS & NZ media Check out Stuff, SMH etc
Makes sense His contract with Glasgow expires next year and Chieka won;t be around post RWC
Yeah. It's a bit of a poisoned chalice if you want to come back to NZ. Being in the NZ news cycle, playing us 3 x a year, being involved through Super rugby, and then having to deal with the toxic club/country/franchise communities. It damn near destroyed Deans.
Far better to go and coach somewhere like Wales, where they love rugby, and success or failure is out of the NZ public eye.
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@nzzp said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
@Jaguares4real said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
@booboo said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
@antipodean said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
@Snowy said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
@Jaguares4real said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
Plenty of worthy coaches for ABs: Cotter Rennie Gatland Schmidt etc
If only we knew who was available. Two of those probably not, so not that many worthy options.
So if the Lions coach is ruled out, and the bloke who said he wants a break for family reasons (Schmidt). Vern hasn't covered himself in glory (although that could be a cattle issue) and apparently Rennie is off to coach the Wallabies.
Options look thin.
I missed that. Really?
It's legit
Been all over AUS & NZ media Check out Stuff, SMH etc
Makes sense His contract with Glasgow expires next year and Chieka won;t be around post RWC
Yeah. It's a bit of a poisoned chalice if you want to come back to NZ. Being in the NZ news cycle, playing us 3 x a year, being involved through Super rugby, and then having to deal with the toxic club/country/franchise communities. It damn near destroyed Deans.
Far better to go and coach somewhere like Wales, where they love rugby, and success or failure is out of the NZ public eye.
Coaching Wales after Gatland and Shawn Edwards might be an equally poisoned chalice I'd argue
Wayne Pivac is in for a rough ride IMO Scarlets were fecking awful the last 6 months of the season which coincided with the announcement of Pivac moving on
Gatland & Edwards have sustained Welsh rugby The game over there is a basket case Clubs being taken over by WRU, clubs losing a shitload of money
Once Wales go through a rough spell, folks are going to see that the Emperor has no Clothes and has been unclothed for a long time
But I agree that Rennie is in for a hell of a ride
AUS rugby is in a mess everywhere
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why would Rennie opt to coach Aus after Chieka when at the same time, he probably has a good shot at the AB post when Hansen steps down?
Who knows when the AB job will be up again.
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@taniwharugby said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
why would Rennie opt to coach Aus after Chieka when at the same time, he probably has a good shot at the AB post when Hansen steps down?
Who knows when the AB job will be up again.
Because it;s the only Tier 1 Int'l HC gig available post RWC 2019
Fabian Galthie is taking over France post RWC 2019
Foster taking over ABs post RWC 2019
Fast Eddie is signed with England until 2021 unless he fuck up in RWC 2019
Andy Farrell taking over Schmidt post RWC 2019
Ledesma and Townsend are secure long term in their roles
So if Rennie wants to coach an Int'l side, he only has 1 choice
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@nzzp said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
@Machpants said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
Yeah we've got a better chance than any other team, but not that much better - it'll be a cracker! Esp as these will be the last games of rugby that mean anything until the next RWC - enjoy meaningful rugby whilst you can!
I'm hoping for a semifinal line of:
NZ SA ARG AUS
Restate world dominance for the southern hemisphere again
I've always found this whole "hemisphere" thing strange, why be so proud of it ? as long as the ABs are there who cares who the other three are ? it's not like I support any of them in the slightest.
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@MN5 said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
@nzzp said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
@Machpants said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
Yeah we've got a better chance than any other team, but not that much better - it'll be a cracker! Esp as these will be the last games of rugby that mean anything until the next RWC - enjoy meaningful rugby whilst you can!
I'm hoping for a semifinal line of:
NZ SA ARG AUS
Restate world dominance for the southern hemisphere again
I've always found this whole "hemisphere" thing strange, why be so proud of it ? as long as the ABs are there who cares who the other three are ? it's not like I support any of them in the slightest.
Fucking hell I'm about to agree with MN5
I might need to be assessed for a Concussion via a HIA check
WTF is going on
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@MN5 said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
I've always found this whole "hemisphere" thing strange, why be so proud of it ? as long as the ABs are there who cares who the other three are ? it's not like I support any of them in the slightest.
It's a split because fo the different seasons, and then all the money is up in the NH. Those four are far and away the poor cousins of Tier 1 international rugby; the ones who get players poached up north, and the ones who historically have been best at the game.
I love to see underdogs getting up against teams with serious financial backing because they play better rugby. So yeah, I'm generally a fan of our SANZAAR partners coming up against the financial might of the NH.
It also helps that their fans can be insufferable with a little success
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@nzzp said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
@MN5 said in Who does TSF want to be the next AB coach?:
It's a split because fo the different seasons, and then all the money is up in the NH. Those four are far and away the poor cousins of Tier 1 international rugby; the ones who get players poached up north, and the ones who historically have been best at the game.
I think you are thinking wishfully there. England are historically just as strong as Australia -- their record is almost exactly 50/50, and that's with lots more games played in the modern era when Australia have had a couple of good runs.
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I'm in the camp who worry about the AB team, rather than individual players. They haven't been playing well as a team for a couple of years. Not reliably well, anyhow. And the slope seems downwards rather than upwards.
Sure we went into the last two RWC campaigns with issues and won. But then again, we went into some of the previous campaigns with similar issues -- that were painfully exposed.
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