All Blacks v BI Lions Test #3
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@booboo said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #3:
@canefan said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #3:
@booboo said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #3:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #3:
I am VERY confident for an AB's win this weekend. 20 points at least.
Weirdly I'm not confident.
51-49 in favour of the good guys.
Not used to uncertainty...
They won't score 49 points. The ABs will be angry at being outscored in tries and will consider it a challenge to stop their forwards and protect our line. BSGs prediction may not be that far off
That's my assessment of chances of winning not a score prediction
Still generous on their part
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@kev said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #3:
@Stargazer some comments in the media that Laumape was found out on defence...so it could be that they don't see him as starter. Would take a bit of a review to work that out.
That was "analysis" from Will Greenwood.
The media guys are fans just like us. Any influence they think they can exert they will.
He thinks if he can put pressure on Laumape by putting out that kind of bullshit he will, hoping that Laumape reads it and gets in his head that he was "found out" that he believes it.
I was listening this arvo on the web to Devlin talking to Chris Jones who was desparately trying to put the story out there that the ABs are under soooooo much pressure that they'll be hated forever ... jeez it wasn't even subtle.
The media are just as much trying to i nfluence the officials as we are.
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #3:
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/weather-forecasts/auckland
Usually pretty accurate.
There were a few forecasts like that earlier today, they have all changed to flat out rain now, I reckon this one will follow.
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it's only Monday and already I'm obsessed with this game.
All the "will they won't they" musings
All the "surely we'll be right" confirmations
All the "Aw jesus a dodgy reffing performance could rob us" anxiety
All the "imagine a 25 point drubbing (or a 3 point loss from a jumping into a tackler penalty)" excitement and angst
Good innit?
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Gee the knee-jerk, sky is falling down carry on from some people after a loss is a thing to behold. Same freaking out occurred during the RWC group games when they didn't put 250 on Namibia.
Christ we were leading by 22 points until the final seconds of the first test. That test was also won after 2 very important players got injured and forced a major backline reshuffle after less than 30min. We lose the 2nd while playing most of the game with a man down and suddenly all these doubts creep in?
Take a farking chill pill. Barring another SBW meltdown there is no reason that we shouldn't win this and win well.
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Nah, ABs by 20. Therefore, ABs are being biggest cheats in the game, ABs are overly aggressive, the ref is too scared otherwise ABs would only have 3 left on the field, it is because of the raped Polynesian islands, Gats whinges about how the world is against him, etc etc.
In other words, back to bloody normal. -
@Samurai-Jack said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #3:
Nah, ABs by 20. Therefore, ABs are being biggest cheats in the game, ABs are overly aggressive, the ref is too scared otherwise ABs would only have 3 left on the field, it is because of the raped Polynesian islands, Gats whinges about how the world is against him, etc etc.
In other words, back to bloody normal.You forgot arrogant fans
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@MiketheSnow said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #3:
@Samurai-Jack said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #3:
Nah, ABs by 20. Therefore, ABs are being biggest cheats in the game, ABs are overly aggressive, the ref is too scared otherwise ABs would only have 3 left on the field, it is because of the raped Polynesian islands, Gats whinges about how the world is against him, etc etc.
In other words, back to bloody normal.You forgot arrogant fans
Nah just too arrogant to mention it
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@Crucial Although I hate losing, I was really pleased for all the Lions fans, it was a cold rainy night, they'd come so far at significant expense, and they won the game with 2 tries to 0. They must have painted Wellington red after that result. A night to remember. Congratulations to them. And the Lions players.
And Gatland. I don't like him. But kudos, he deserves that win.Now let's restore rightful order with a 30 point win at Fortress Eden Park.
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@kiwiinmelb said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #3:
my take on the Fekitoa situation ,
they see him as the best candidate at short notice to be thrown straight in the deep end ,
largely because he has been involved for the last few years , has played in crunch games before and despite his flaws , shouldnt be overawed
Agree. They picked a squad not players. The balance and make up of the initial squad and injury cover was based on SBW, Crotty and Ben Smith (as a much day emergency cover option) being in it.
That calculus now changes and it is very difficult to pick a 23 that gives you options if Goodhue struggles.
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I am 100% the sky is falling down and unfortunately for me I donât have any chill pills. Hereâs why.
⢠Despite NZ winning the first test and almost winning the second while being a man down, there was enough in those two games to suggest to me this Lions team is one of the best teams I have seen in NZ for a very long time. And the ABs have looked vulnerable in areas where they have been very good in the past.
⢠High balls. It started with Ben SMITH dropping ones he would normally take in Auckland and it continued with Dagg putting a few down in Wellington. Plus Dagg having to pretty much take them all Wellington because of our wing selections.
⢠Kick off reception and clearing. The Lions are doing a bloody good job here. They are getting the ball high and deep and their chase is nicely timed for when the ABs take the ball. We seem to be getting pinned down near our 22 after scoring, giving the Lions a chance to bite back. There was a good example of this on the weekend near the end of the game. The ABs had just kicked a penalty and the lions kicked off deep as usual. Cruden took the ball and hesitated to kick it for fear of the ball being charged. A ruck followed and the ball was cleared to an under pressure kicker (possibly Barrett) who only managed to clear it to around the 22. The Lions scored a try in the following phases. This has happened a lot the whole tour. The Lions have been able to keep in touch because they have pressured the NZ teams outstandingly well at restart time.
⢠Line outs. We are starting to see body language in the NZ lineout reminiscent of the bad old days. I know there are extenuating circumstances with the Lions yelling over our calls and sometimes setting up camp down the middle of the lineout, but shit we look nervous. Taylor is taking an age to throw the ball in and when that happens you know the lineout is under pressure. I havenât seen the lineout stats and I am guessing they wonât look too bad, but fuck we are looking nervous in that area.
⢠Counter attack. Even in Auckland when we had a full quota of players the Lions looked more dangerous than us on the counter attack. And they were creating more chances to counter attack. It seems when they spill the ball they are either first to the loose ball or if an AB gets there first he is immediately set upon by a number of Lions meaning a shitty pass gets thrown or we end up in a ruck situation where fast ball is not coming. When the ABs spill the ball it seems like the Lions have very little trouble in moving the ball wide to have a go.
⢠Rush defence. This is a magnificent part of the Lions game. Maybe they are offside a lot of the time but they have been doing it all tour and NZ teams, apart from every now and then, have looked very ineffective against it. I find myself yelling at the TV that the bastards are offside but game in game out the refs have not pinged them for it. Why? Are the Lions in fact not offside but appear that way to us/me because they are outstanding at this facet of the game? Surely if they live offside Hansen would have brought this to the attention of the refs pre game, but nothing seems to have changed.
⢠AB midfield/backline. We got away with it last year but I think we are seeing that Nonu and Smith are not proving easy to replace. To borrow a basketball term, at this stage in their careers, apart from Barrett and Aaron Smith, the NZ backline seems to be made up of role players. There doesnât seem to be anyone out wide (especially with the absence of Ben Smith) who seems capable of saying âFuck this, give me the ball I am going to win this bloody game.â Nonu used to do it against the very best, so too Smith. Noone is doing it for the ABs currently. This is why, despite me being a big fan of Goodhue and I am picking him to be a long term AB, I would not pick him for this weekend. Even for the Crusaders he is a role player at the moment, a very, very good one, but I have yet to see him take a game by the scruff of the neck. I am not sure the ABs have anyone willing and able (apart from 9 and 10) to take a game by the scruff.All of the above is tempered by last weekend. Because the ABs were down to 14 we have no idea of the relative merits of the two teams. Despite the score line in Auckland I felt that game could have gone either way. I also feel that the Lions nearly self-destructed in Wellington rather than the ABs outplaying the Lions during the time we built a lead. It seemed to me when the Lions finally got their shit together they scored pretty easily. Was this because the ABs were tiring? Who knows and we wonât know until the weekend.
I am sure I have forgotten something to worry about and I am sure I will remember in the dead of night when I am trying to sleep. I need a hug and somebody to tell me everything is going to be Ok.
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@Crazy-Horse Yip, I am far from thinking this game is in the bag.
Our forwards have been fine, the odd line-out aside, but our backs have been far from fluid. I really hope Crotty is available: Crotty + ALB (which was great in the 4N last season) reassures me much much more than anything involving Laumape (raw), Goodhue (raw), Fekitoa (liable to blow that crucial try-scoring chance).
I'd by happy with Smith, Barrett, Savea, Crotty, ALB, Dagg, Jordie Barrett to be honest.
I find Ioane's work-rate low, and I'm not convinced about Naholo as a fielder of high-balls.
The Lions have basically been unaffected by injury, they will have a core test team who will be well up for this.
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@Billy-Tell said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #3:
The Lions have basically been unaffected by injury, they will have a core test team who will be well up for this.
This has been key in the incremental development of the Lions squad, Test 23 and game plan.
Don't get me wrong, I thought we'd blown it last Saturday and was left relieved but underwhelmed by the margin of victory.
But going into the decider we have a largely unchanged 23 who are peaking fitness wise, are more comfortable with the game plan, who trust each other, and who have a greater sense of how they're running off the ball and combining.
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@Crazy-Horse Thanks for your thoughts mate, very interesting and nice to see some credit being attributed to the Lions; however I don't share your concerns re the All Blacks, they've not been too bad mate.
Interesting view on the rush/offside defence thing. For sure a rush defence is going to be on the margin all bloody game, but a few things make me think that it isn't quite as bad as has been suggested. As you've said, whilst this has been an issue for fans all the way through, it has not been quite so much an issue for a selection of refs and ARs, of different nationalities. Also we have not heard anything much (at least up here we haven't) from the NZ coaching team. I know Hansen doesn't moan much in public but he does have blokes to do that for him when required. Lastly, the Lions have given up a fair few penalties for offside (as you will with a rush defence), so it is not as if it is not being policed. Yeah, no doubt some have been missed but that's pretty standard.
The line out shit is just fucking embarrassing though and I'm ashamed that we have an Englishman as forwards coach and line out specialist that is letting this happen. Refs should be all over that.
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The way the Lions are doing the rush D is to be so on the edge and anticipate as a line that usually no one looks obviously 'the guy'. Most times they are certainly moving before the ball is lifted but are also not planting the first step until right on the lift. It is well coached and usually executed well.
They are often getting it wrong though and the ref is telling them to get back which they do and avoid the penalty (but have affected the play by slowing it down).It's boundary pushing for sure but that's what good teams do.
I stated earlier in the series that I thought the game needs tidying to avoid this 'style' shutting down a game. Laws have been implemented with 5m back from scrums and 10m back from line outs to create space so it's not like this is a radical concept. You can't have a 1 or 2 metre back law at tackle/rucks, it would be to hard to rule on, but you can put the onus of teams to show they are clearly onside rather than clearly offside. Make doubt go in favour of the attacking side and the game would be 'cleaner'
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the sky does tend to fall after a loss, purely because we don't have many.
We have had significant losses to Aus, and when needing to back up the following week people were concerned about how they would respond.
We still have an awesome group of players, yes our depth is being tested, but our depth is unrivalled, and while there is a drop off from some players to the next lot, they are still world class.
What the changes does is brings us back to the pack, or pride as this case might have it
but a solitary loss does not make us a poor team, and while a 2nd loss would be unprecedented in this recent era, and the tour deemed a failure (from our perspective) I'm not convinced it will be that bad, although I don't believe we will lose.This team has been in this position before, coming off a loss where we have not performed well, had injuries, having stinging criticism about our play in the media, and we usually respond the best way possible, by turning in an excellent performance.
It is looking likely the weather will play a part again, but I don't see us playing as poorly again (hoping for 15 v 15) or allowing the Lions to dictate terms to us, forcing us to adjust.
Bring on Saturday!
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@Crazy-Horse said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #3:
I am 100% the sky is falling down and unfortunately for me I donât have any chill pills. Hereâs why.
⢠Despite NZ winning the first test and almost winning the second while being a man down, there was enough in those two games to suggest to me this Lions team is one of the best teams I have seen in NZ for a very long time. And the ABs have looked vulnerable in areas where they have been very good in the past.
⢠High balls. It started with Ben SMITH dropping ones he would normally take in Auckland and it continued with Dagg putting a few down in Wellington. Plus Dagg having to pretty much take them all Wellington because of our wing selections.
⢠Kick off reception and clearing. The Lions are doing a bloody good job here. They are getting the ball high and deep and their chase is nicely timed for when the ABs take the ball. We seem to be getting pinned down near our 22 after scoring, giving the Lions a chance to bite back. There was a good example of this on the weekend near the end of the game. The ABs had just kicked a penalty and the lions kicked off deep as usual. Cruden took the ball and hesitated to kick it for fear of the ball being charged. A ruck followed and the ball was cleared to an under pressure kicker (possibly Barrett) who only managed to clear it to around the 22. The Lions scored a try in the following phases. This has happened a lot the whole tour. The Lions have been able to keep in touch because they have pressured the NZ teams outstandingly well at restart time.
⢠Line outs. We are starting to see body language in the NZ lineout reminiscent of the bad old days. I know there are extenuating circumstances with the Lions yelling over our calls and sometimes setting up camp down the middle of the lineout, but shit we look nervous. Taylor is taking an age to throw the ball in and when that happens you know the lineout is under pressure. I havenât seen the lineout stats and I am guessing they wonât look too bad, but fuck we are looking nervous in that area.
⢠Counter attack. Even in Auckland when we had a full quota of players the Lions looked more dangerous than us on the counter attack. And they were creating more chances to counter attack. It seems when they spill the ball they are either first to the loose ball or if an AB gets there first he is immediately set upon by a number of Lions meaning a shitty pass gets thrown or we end up in a ruck situation where fast ball is not coming. When the ABs spill the ball it seems like the Lions have very little trouble in moving the ball wide to have a go.
⢠Rush defence. This is a magnificent part of the Lions game. Maybe they are offside a lot of the time but they have been doing it all tour and NZ teams, apart from every now and then, have looked very ineffective against it. I find myself yelling at the TV that the bastards are offside but game in game out the refs have not pinged them for it. Why? Are the Lions in fact not offside but appear that way to us/me because they are outstanding at this facet of the game? Surely if they live offside Hansen would have brought this to the attention of the refs pre game, but nothing seems to have changed.
⢠AB midfield/backline. We got away with it last year but I think we are seeing that Nonu and Smith are not proving easy to replace. To borrow a basketball term, at this stage in their careers, apart from Barrett and Aaron Smith, the NZ backline seems to be made up of role players. There doesnât seem to be anyone out wide (especially with the absence of Ben Smith) who seems capable of saying âFuck this, give me the ball I am going to win this bloody game.â Nonu used to do it against the very best, so too Smith. Noone is doing it for the ABs currently. This is why, despite me being a big fan of Goodhue and I am picking him to be a long term AB, I would not pick him for this weekend. Even for the Crusaders he is a role player at the moment, a very, very good one, but I have yet to see him take a game by the scruff of the neck. I am not sure the ABs have anyone willing and able (apart from 9 and 10) to take a game by the scruff.All of the above is tempered by last weekend. Because the ABs were down to 14 we have no idea of the relative merits of the two teams. Despite the score line in Auckland I felt that game could have gone either way. I also feel that the Lions nearly self-destructed in Wellington rather than the ABs outplaying the Lions during the time we built a lead. It seemed to me when the Lions finally got their shit together they scored pretty easily. Was this because the ABs were tiring? Who knows and we wonât know until the weekend.
I am sure I have forgotten something to worry about and I am sure I will remember in the dead of night when I am trying to sleep. I need a hug and somebody to tell me everything is going to be Ok.
Exhibit A your honour.
