All Blacks v BI Lions Test #2
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Former Wales captain and BBC Pundit Gwyn Jones
Gwyn Jones: A Lions loss would end Gatland's spell at world rugby's summit
The former Wales captain and top TV pundit argues Gatland would be left 'treading water in Wales' unless the Lions beat New Zealand
One of the comments from a reader
WelshOzi
"Great article from Gwyn Jones. Gatland's woeful, disgraceful record against the southern hemisphere countries, 33 losses out of 36 proves that crash, bang, wallop, kick aka Warrenball does not work at the top level. It worked against lesser opposition in the 6 nations for a while but a large part of this is that England have been below par until Eddy Jones took over and Wales relied on a dominant scrum to get penalties for Halfpenny to kick - once the scrum laws changed in 2013 and Adam Jones's influence declined Gatland and Wales have been on a slippery slope. The guy has zero innovation and is as detrimentaly stubborn as a mule and is backed up by an atrocious attack coach and adiabolical forwards coach. Mass clearout is the only way forward" -
@MiketheSnow said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #2:
Former Wales captain and BBC Pundit Gwyn Jones
The former Wales captain and top TV pundit argues Gatland would be left 'treading water in Wales' unless the Lions beat New Zealand
One of the comments from a reader
WelshOzi
"Great article from Gwyn Jones. Gatland's woeful, disgraceful record against the southern hemisphere countries, 33 losses out of 36 proves that crash, bang, wallop, kick aka Warrenball does not work at the top level. It worked against lesser opposition in the 6 nations for a while but a large part of this is that England have been below par until Eddy Jones took over and Wales relied on a dominant scrum to get penalties for Halfpenny to kick - once the scrum laws changed in 2013 and Adam Jones's influence declined Gatland and Wales have been on a slippery slope. The guy has zero innovation and is as detrimentaly stubborn as a mule and is backed up by an atrocious attack coach and adiabolical forwards coach. Mass clearout is the only way forward"Ouch!
No worries about the NZ press getting stuck in when you have your home press referring to you as the Teresa May of coaching
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Murray Kinsella's pre-game analysis (even if he did get it all wrong last week)
Click the link if you want to see all the gifs and diagrams
Analysis: The key areas for the Lions if they are to win in Wellington
We’ve looked at the areas where Warren Gatland’s side need to be better against the All Blacks.
Text only here:
Analysis: The key areas for the Lions if they are to win in Wellington
We’ve looked at the areas where Warren Gatland’s side need to be better against the All Blacks.
Murray Kinsella reports from Wellington
THE BUILD-UP has been dominated by more bitching, controversy and clowning around but we are finally on the eve of the Lions’ second Test and what promises to be one of the great rugby games [KO 8.35am Irish time tomorrow, Sky Sports].
We’ve taken a look at some of the key areas for the Lions if they are to pull off a shock and level the series heading into the final Test in Auckland.
Get a breakdown grip
One of the absolute priorities for the Lions is slowing down the pace of the All Blacks’ attack and that will come through targeting the breakdown.
In the first Test, the All Blacks were consistently able to get what they term ‘lighting-quick ball,’ which refers to rucks lasting less than three seconds.
We’ve analysed how the speed of that ball meant the Lions’ defence struggled to get set in good positions to make dominant tackles, and therefore saw them give up more and more gainline as the phases ticked by.
Sam Warburton has been picked by Gatland to lead the breakdown battle and it is certainly an area in which he excels.We get an example in the second half of the first Test above, with Warburton clamping over the ball and greatly slowing down the All Blacks’ ruck, giving his team-mates valuable time to get set in defence.
Even when Warburton isn’t the man directly over the ball looking for the turnover himself, he is highly influential around the breakdown.
Below, we see an example in the game against the Provincial Barbarians as Rory Best wins a clean turnover.While it’s Best who steals the ball, note Warburton’s actions.
He clamps himself around the Ireland hooker, anchoring Best as he fishes for the ball.Best’s right knee actually goes to ground here and it should really be a penalty the other way for that reason, but Warburton’s aid helps the Ulsterman to get back to his feet instantly and he finishes the job.
Warburton regularly produces these kind of breakdown assists and he is a real pest around the tackle, as we see below.Again, it’s Best who wins the turnover but note the actions of Warburton.
The tackle is made on his inside and as he is retreating, he runs across the tackle and gets a subtle block in on one of the arriving Barbarians players, just closing off his access to the breakdown for long enough to give Best a shot.It’s clever stuff from Warburton and we can see that Johnny Sexton does the same thing over on the other side of the tackle, meaning Best has time to get back to his feet and pilfer the ball.
With the Lions zoning in on the breakdown tomorrow, Warburton will be a key figure but it might be that his subtle work allows others, like Sean O’Brien, to make the glory steals.
Find the grass
One thing the Lions struggled for in the first Test was good field position. That was partly due to their handling errors when they got into the All Blacks’ half, but it was also a reflection of their kicking game.
Conor Murray launched the kind of contestable box kicks we had anticipated and the Lions had real success over Ben Smith in the first half, so we can certainly expect to see them test fullback Israel Dagg and wings Rieko Ioane and Waisake Naholo in that manner.
However, they are also likely to look for grass with their kicking game, sending the ball deeper into All Blacks’ backfield.Owen Farrell does as much in the instance above, early in the first Test. While the All Blacks are able to get back and Israel Dagg then produces a big touchfinder, the Lions get the ball again with a lineout near the halfway line.
It’s an economical way of gaining territory, but the Lions didn’t pursue these tactics much again in that first Test.
With Johnny Sexton at out-half and Owen Farrell shifting to inside centre, we can expect more of this type of kicking from the Lions.Sexton is a particularly good tactical kicker, as we see in the example above against the Maori All Blacks, so he is sure to be a vital figure.
While Naholo and Ioane are both devastating attacking players, they are not as comfortable when the ball is kicked in behind them. The Lions will have to be as wary of loose kicking against the Kiwis’ counter-attacking quality as ever, but they are likely to test Naholo and Ioane by turning them.
With the weather set to be wet and windy tomorrow, expect lots of kicking. The Lions ended up kicking only 19 times in the first Test, down on their tour average of 25, but that figure should rise in Wellington.
Make some hits
For Andy Farrell’s defence, this is about as basic as it gets. They will need to bring fierce aggression into the tackle and regularly produce the kind of hits that were lacking in the first Test.
As we discussed earlier in the week, there was far too much passive tackling from the Lions around the fringes of the rucks, where the All Blacks got major gains.
Shoring up that area of their defence has been the key focus for Farrell this week, so expect to see players working incredibly hard to fill those tight spaces early, communicate and come forward aggressively.
Itoje
Maro Itoje’s presence in the starting XV will be a boost defensively, with the England lock being an excellent tackler.
Even thought he came off the bench last week, he was one of the few players to make dominant tackles – as we see above.
Expect to see the Saracens man leading the way as the Lions look for these momentum-swinging moments of contact.
Barrett’s influence
While the first Test head injury for Ben Smith was obviously damaging and concerning, and means his series is over, the All Blacks had a pretty decent replacement fullback in Beauden Barrett.
That said, it did deprive them of the best out-half in the world for a large part of the game and that has to be viewed as a let-off for the Lions – even if Aaron Cruden is all class.
Back at out-half for the second Test, we can expect to see more of Barrett’s attacking arsenal, particularly with the Lions likely to be narrower in defence as they seek to address their issues around the fringes.
BB
The Lions had expected more attacking kicks like the one above from Barrett in the first Test, but it wasn’t a tactic the All Blacks pursued greatly.
Anthony Watson superbly diffuses the danger in the instance above, calling the mark after an excellent leap and catch, and the Lions’ back three will be anticipating a lot more kicks of this kind from Barrett in the second Test.
Naholo is particularly excellent at timing his runs onto cross-field kick passes, grubbers and chips and he will be looking to get on the end of Barrett’s creative skills.
Brace the maul
The Lions have major pride to restore at scrum time after being shunted backwards by the All Blacks in the build-up to Ioane’s first try last weekend, but as important is getting their maul firing.
As we discussed previously, there was a costly five-metre maul failing for Gatland’s men early in the second half when they had the All Blacks under pressure, and it was generally an area of disappointment for the tourists.
Sack
The All Blacks had success with their sacking of the Lions at lineout time, as we see in the example above, with Kieran Read and Sam Whitelock tackling Alun Wyn Jones to the ground as he lands from his jump.
The Lions did have issues with the refereeing of this area, arguing that the maul had already been formed in several instances. With Jerome Garces taking over from Jaco Peyper as referee for the second Test, they will be hoping for a more favourable interpretation.
But the Lions absolutely must get their maul motoring at Westpac Stadium, where it could be a major weapon against the Kiwis.
Keep countering
Gatland’s side produced one of the all-time great Lions tries in the first Test and it was indicative of the success they had on counter attack.
With Liam Williams, Elliot Daly and Watson in the back three again, we should expect the Lions to pursue this ambitious mindset in the second Test.
LW
Williams makes a good decision to counter here, clocking that a possible kick would be in danger of a blockdown and also acknowledging that the fast-advancing Read is isolated.
Read
The footwork is outstanding and suddenly Williams understands his opportunity as he backs himself to get outside Cruden.
The Lions fullback intelligently transfers the ball over to his left hand so he can fend Cruden.
Fend
Williams also benefits from the clever work of Ben Te’o ahead of him, with the inside centre retreating and getting in a block on Sonny Bill Williams as the All Blacks midfielder attempts to turn in and tackle.
Te'o
Once in behind, the Lions are ruthless in a way that has eluded them too often on this tour.
SOB
The support play and work-rate from Jonathan Davies, Daly and O’Brien is sensational here and this is the templated for the Lions coming into the second Test.
If they are to pull this second Test victory off, they simply must take every chance they create.
Verdict
With the All Blacks set to be a more cohesive unit in their third Test of the year, this task simply looks too great for the Lions.
While they should be notably more aggressive in contact and will hope to have greater set-piece success, the All Blacks are capable of making decisions and executing on them accurately at a far greater speed than the Lions have shown they can react.
Even with the weather set to be poor, Steve Hansen’s side are sure to score tries and for that reason we’re suggesting a New Zealand win on a scoreline of 28-15. -
@Crucial said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #2:
Murray Kinsella's pre-game analysis
Analysis: The key area
sfor the Lions if they are to win in WellingtonWe’ve looked at the area
swhere Warren Gatland’s side need to be better against the All Blacks.Scoreboard.
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@ACT-Crusader not sure I've seen enough of Tipuric to say whether he's got more breakdown mongrel than Warburton.
Itoje on the other hand is going to be a right menace in 4 years time when he gets his man strength.
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@Crucial said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #2:
Even with the weather set to be poor, Steve Hansen’s side are sure to score tries and for that reason we’re suggesting a New Zealand win on a scoreline of 28-15.
The worse the weather the more likely it is to be a blowout IMO. The gulf in ruck technique, ball handling and support play will become more apparent. If it is raining ABS will hit 40.
It was difficult coaxing attacking rugby out of the Lions on a flat track in good conditions, how far into their shell will they go with a light shower?
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@rotated said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #2:
@Crucial said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #2:
Even with the weather set to be poor, Steve Hansen’s side are sure to score tries and for that reason we’re suggesting a New Zealand win on a scoreline of 28-15.
The worse the weather the more likely it is to be a blowout IMO. The gulf in ruck technique, ball handling and support play will become more apparent. If it is raining ABS will hit 40.
It was difficult coaxing attacking rugby out of the Lions on a flat track in good conditions, how far into their shell will they go with a light shower?
OK I'm here to be roasted on this but the Lions did not lose through lack of attacking intent and Gatland's selection for the second test is all about attack. I'm not saying this will be successful, but attitude is there in selection. Whether that plays through into performance is another matter.
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I think he was saying if there is a gap in skill level , he believes it will become more apparent in the wet
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@taniwharugby said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #2:
Ha ha, nice sentence;
"They're very supportive, to be fair," the New Zealand-born, Wales-raised, England prop of Tongan descent said in a Welsh accent of his family.
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@Catogrande spot on, particularly in the first half the lions played the more attacking rugby, while we kicked the ball away on attack.
Second half we played a bit more footy, but it was not converting chance to points that sunk the lions, not a lack of willingness to attack. -
@reprobate said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #2:
@Catogrande spot on, particularly in the first half the lions played the more attacking rugby, while we kicked the ball away on attack.
Second half we played a bit more footy, but it was not converting chance to points that sunk the lions, not a lack of willingness to attack.Kemny Rogers School of Rugby.
Wrong choices and poor execution undid us.
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@Billy-Tell That's like the good old days of Sports Cafe.
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@Frank said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #2:
I've heard there will be rain. How heavy is it likely to be?
Drizzling, pouring ???Hope Naholo and Ioane have been practicing their high ball skills - both catching it and not taking anyone out in the air.
Heard foxy on radio sport saying , expecting heavy rain , and could rain throughout the whole game .
He was trying to spin the we have to adjust to the conditions line , but you could hear the disappointment, even though he wouldn't say it -
https://www.yr.no/place/New_Zealand/Wellington/Wellington/hour_by_hour.html
The Norwegians reckon it won't be completely hosing down - but definitely wet and maybe raining steadily throughout.
Mind you if it's anything like it is here in Nelson today, it will put the fear of god in anyone who's playing in the back three. The sort of day when it's better be at home by a roaring fire watching it on the telly!
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@JC said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #2:
@Frank I'm hoping Naholo keeps his cool. Focus on positioning when he's defending, tackles legal and low. The rest of his game he's awesomeness waiting to happen.
No cross kicks for Naholo to chase would be a good idea.
