Ireland v NZ - Chicago Showdown & Dublin Duel
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@ACT-Crusader said in Ireland v NZ - Chicago Showdown:
I think there are reservations about whether both Romano and TP can go the distance of 80 minutes at a high level. Plus both play the same role it seems.
Could we see 3 locks in the 23 ?
Losing these 2 could have wider ramifications than just losing our 2 best locks , could affect our impact off the bench too .
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They'll go with the much superior Romero over Romano, and Tuipolotou to start. Barrett on the bench probably, Luatua an outside chance. Read takes so many lineouts for us these days that our own lineout will be fine - much harder to replace the motors those two giants have, in my opinion. opposition lineout ball gets tougher - could try throwing read up, or just accept we're getting less this game.
whoever they choose, those 2 blokes are a massive loss at the same time. best in the world, both of them, and their replacements wouldn't be in the conversation.
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@kiwiinmelb i'd be picking a straight lock on the bench, and a loosie who can cover lock. i think whoever starts they're both likely to need replacing before our loosies.
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@reprobate said in Ireland v NZ - Chicago Showdown:
They'll go with the much superior Romero over Romano, and Tuipolotou to start. Barrett on the bench probably, Luatua an outside chance. Read takes so many lineouts for us these days that our own lineout will be fine - much harder to replace the motors those two giants have, in my opinion. opposition lineout ball gets tougher - could try throwing read up, or just accept we're getting less this game.
whoever they choose, those 2 blokes are a massive loss at the same time. best in the world, both of them, and their replacements wouldn't be in the conversation.
Good point, he's much better than Tuipulotu.
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@reprobate said in Ireland v NZ - Chicago Showdown:
@Bones better i agree, but not sure if the difference is as much as Romero. i still reckon they should give reiko a run too.
Looking like a pretty handy side once you throw in Keiran Reid and Anton Leinert-Brown. Hopefully TJ Peranara is in the mix.
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@reprobate said in Ireland v NZ - Chicago Showdown:
@Bones had it too easy for too long with all these smiths. i'm going back to calling him pat.
speaking of names, how good a name is Facundo (Isa)?
It's pretty good, but as I noted in the Black Ferns thread, the NZ 8-9 combo of Savage-Cocksedge is a pearler.
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@reprobate said in Ireland v NZ - Chicago Showdown:
They'll go with the much superior Romero over Romano, and Tuipolotou to start. Barrett on the bench probably, Luatua an outside chance. Read takes so many lineouts for us these days that our own lineout will be fine - much harder to replace the motors those two giants have, in my opinion. opposition lineout ball gets tougher - could try throwing read up, or just accept we're getting less this game.
whoever they choose, those 2 blokes are a massive loss at the same time. best in the world, both of them, and their replacements wouldn't be in the conversation.
I don't know, I rate PT pretty highly. Sure he may not be as good an aerial lock as the big two, but he offers a level of physicality that is only matched by Kaino in the forwards. Given a bit of game time, he could become world class very quickly.
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@akan004 said in Ireland v NZ - Chicago Showdown:
@reprobate said in Ireland v NZ - Chicago Showdown:
They'll go with the much superior Romero over Romano, and Tuipolotou to start. Barrett on the bench probably, Luatua an outside chance. Read takes so many lineouts for us these days that our own lineout will be fine - much harder to replace the motors those two giants have, in my opinion. opposition lineout ball gets tougher - could try throwing read up, or just accept we're getting less this game.
whoever they choose, those 2 blokes are a massive loss at the same time. best in the world, both of them, and their replacements wouldn't be in the conversation.
I don't know, I rate PT pretty highly. Sure he may not be as good an aerial lock as the big two, but he offers a level of physicality that is only matched by Kaino in the forwards. Given a bit of game time, he could become world class very quickly.
Think that's a bit of a misconception about PT. Not sure if he's used too much but seems to be very good in the air - he's had quite a few crucial steals for the AB's at least.
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@reprobate said in Ireland v NZ - Chicago Showdown:
i like pat, but when was the last time he played 80 minutes?
Absolutely a concern.
but ...
Would love to see him start and get the best part of a game. But it's been a long time since he got game time. Same with Romero.
Personally I'd go with those two plus Lewertooer on the bench.
Ciaran Reed and Gerard Kyneaux to cover lock from the starters.
Leave Ardy as impact loosie.
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Toner's best lock partner, Iain Henderson is also out through injury. So it'll be either Ryan or Dillane starting alongside him, I reckon, with the other on the bench.
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@Pot-Hale said in Ireland v NZ - Chicago Showdown:
Ireland squad of 35 named today for this match.
Finlay Bealham (Buccaneers/Connacht)
Rory Best (Banbridge/Ulster) captain
Joey Carbery (Clontarf/Leinster)*
Sean Cronin (St Mary's College/Leinster)
Ultan Dillane (Corinthians/Connacht)
Keith Earls (Young Munster/Munster)
Tadgh Furlong (Clontarf/Leinster)
Craig Gilroy (Ulster)
Cian Healy (Clontarf/Leinster)
Jamie Heaslip (Dublin University/Leinster) vice captain
Iain Henderson (Ballynahinch/Ulster)
Robbie Henshaw (Leinster)
Billy Holland (Cork Constitution/Munster)*
Paddy Jackson (Dungannon/Ulster)
Rob Kearney (UCD/Leinster)
Kieran Marmion (Buccaneers/Connacht)
Luke Marshall (Ulster)
Jack McGrath (St Marys/Leinster)
Luke McGrath (UCD/Leinster)*
Jordi Murphy (Lansdowne/Leinster)
Conor Murray (Garryowen/Munster)
Sean O'Brien (UCD/Leinster)
Peter O'Mahony (Cork Constitution/Munster)
Jared Payne (Ulster)
Garry Ringrose (UCD/Leinster)*
Donnacha Ryan (Shannon/Munster)
John Ryan (Cork Constitution/Munster)*
Jonathan Sexton (St Mary's College/Leinster)
CJ Stander (Munster)
Devin Toner (Lansdowne/Leinster)
James Tracy (UCD/Leinster)*
Andrew Trimble (Ballymena/Ulster)
Josh van der Flier (UCD/Leinster)
Simon Zebo (Cork Constitution/Munster)- uncapped.
My 2c on the Irish team.
In the front row I think they'll probably start McGrath at LH with Healy on the reserves. Healy went through a massive form slump tied to injury, but has come back this season in good form. McGrath is probably better in the tight, Healy is better round the field. Both these props are potential Lions tourists, they are up there with the AB options.
At hooker Best will start. But Best is past his best, and like his backup Cronin, throwing can be dodgy. In fact Cronin is very dodgy at lineout time, but has pace to burn and is a good impact sub. Neither in the same class as Coles.
At TH, Schmidt has finally got round to ditching Mike Ross who could hold up a scrum for 20 minutes, and not much more. I think he'll probably go Furlong to start and Bealham on the bench, although Munster's Ryan has been in good scrummaging form and might start. NZ's TH's have better all-round games.
At lock, Retallick/Whitelock was streets ahead...but they are out. They will go with Toner who is a giraffe and a reliable source of offensive lineout ball, restarts and mauling. I would have liked to see Whitelock take him on. We should avoid Toner on our own throw. I quite rate Ultan Dillane from Connacht, he has a good all-round game, but I suspect he will bench with Ryan starting. I'd be slightly nervous about our locks, I'd go with PT and Barrett, who was excellent I though early Super XVIII before fading a bit, with Romano on the bench.
In the loosies, Heaslip will be at 8, ultra-reliable but doesn't offer a whole lot of go-forward. It'll be van der Flier or O'Brien at 7, Van der Flier has been playing pretty well for Leinster, and reminds me a bit of McCaw TBH. 6 will either be O'Mahony or Stander - IMO both these guys take way too much contact and don't pass or off-load, so while they are able to get over the gainline, the Irish attack can be easily shut down by simply tackling these two.
At 9 they will go with Murray who is streets ahead of the other Irish options, who are fairly ordinary. I expect box-kicking and sniping runs. Needs a good game for Ireland to have a chance.
At 10, they will go with Sexton. Much loved by Leinster fans, but a bit of a prima donna, throw the toys out of the cot sort of character. As crucial to Ireland's chances as Murray. Will probably stick Jackson on the bench, but Carberry genuinely does look very promising from what I've seen and apparently got Henry's stamp of approval.
Midfield is interesting. A lot of the Irish want our countryman Payne at 15, but he will probably get the 13 shirt, where he is solid and reliable but unspectacular. That will probably mean Henshaw at 12, who is one of ireland's better backs, and a good shot for a Lions shirt. He is better at 13 though imo. Ringrose looks promising, but unlike NZ who just hand Liernet-Brown a shirt and say here you go, Ireland tend to be conservative and I'd be surprised to see him start.
The back 3 is absolutely Ireland's achilles heel. Schmidt continues to choose solid journeyman who dont make mistakes, but don't really create anything either. Rob Kearney is still living on his 2009 form. There a couple of promising players from Connacht who have been overlooked. NZ should have a big advantage here.
The locking situation is a big setback for NZ, but Ireland are playing their first game of the AIs, and I reckon our speed of game, width of game, and our bench will prove too much. Dublin could be closer.
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I don't see any lineout issues for us on our own ball, Romano at 2 is safe, Tui or Read can easiliy will ball at 4 or 6 with Franks & Kaino lifting. Add to that all our backup loosies are lineout options - Luatua, Dixon, Squire. Its not like a few years back where our back row were all midgets who needed 2 lifters.
It'll be the steals we miss, Whitelock is outstanding at stealing & messing up opposition ball & no one else really brings that to the party.
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@gollum said in Ireland v NZ - Chicago Showdown:
I don't see any lineout issues for us on our own ball, Romano at 2 is safe, Tui or Read can easiliy will ball at 4 or 6 with Franks & Kaino lifting. Add to that all our backup loosies are lineout options - Luatua, Dixon, Squire.
And Ardie. How tall is he?
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McGrath, Best Furlong
Toner Ryan
Josh vd Flier, CJ Stander
Heaslip
Murray, Sexton
Henshaw Payne
Trimble Zebo
KearneyCronin, Healy, Bealham, Ryan, Dillane, O'Mahony, Marmion/MCGrath, Jackson, Gilroy
O'Brien hasn't got enough miles on the clock this season, van der Flier is the form player, albeit with far less caps. Stander and O'Mahony are as good as each other, so one or other on the bench - O'Mahony is a better option in the lineout, in my view. Unfortunately, Henderson is out injured, otherwise he'd be in there likely starting side alongside Toner.
As we've seen in other games already this year, the bench has to make its own kind of particular impact, and not just replace tired legs. Healy is coming back to form just on time, and combined with Cronin and Belham will bring agility and speed to the game. Toner has to run the 80 minutes and repeat some of his more recent performances, particularly in the SA games, where he was my man of the match in the first SA test. He's not too shabby at stealing ball either so it should be interesting if Ireland choose to contest at throw in time. I'd love to see young Carbery on the bench instead of Jackson just to see how he'd go. He's a sensible head on his shoulders for a guy turning 21 next week, but it might be a bit soon.
All in all, it won't make much difference to the end result. If Ireland can keep the losing margin somewhat tidy then it's a good start to the season and should be a good learning curve for the next seres of test matches. I'd prefer for Schmidt to blood a few more new players and treat the November Internationals as high quality development games. Canada game will give some of those in the queue a start, and Ireland should target the Australia game for a win and WR ranking points. There's none involved for the NZ games.
Bookies have Ireland at 10/1 on straight win, and a handicap of +21.
