The Silver Fern

SBW out? Rieko to 12!

TSF version of Godwin’s law:

“As a thread grows longer, the probability of discussing the RWC failure or Akira Ioane approaches 1”

There's been some comments in the media that the current situation is similar to all the other Blues coaches. I thought I would check out the win percentages vs other NZ sides

Yes, the form of the NZ teams has ebbed and flowed but they are generally strong. Also, they are the one constant across the various number of teams, competition structure etc

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Umaga 6.7%

15 games 1 win

The one win was the first game vs the Highlanders (33-31)

If his team the next 5 NZ games (2 vs Crusaders, 2 vs Hurricanes, 1 vs Highlanders) he can just edge in front of Kirwan

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Kirwan 29%

24 games 7 wins
(3 Hurricanes, 2 Highlanders, 2 Crusaders)

Crap

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Lam 37.5%

24 games 9 wins
(4 Highlanders, 2 Chiefs, 2 Hurricanes, 1 Crusaders)

I think there has to be a note about the injury crisis in Lams fourth season. Crazy number of injuries, players with no NPC experience starting... locks in particular, we were starting our 7th choice lock with a loosie next to him etc

First three seasons prior to that injury crisis:
9/16 56.3%

This included the best streak since Henry: 6 in a row versus NZ teams. The streak Included all other NZ sides. That season was the last time the Blues made the playoffs

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Nucifora 50%

6/12
(2 Chiefs, 2 Highlanders, 1 Hurricanes, 1 Crusaders)

A bad first season cemented reputation then his team went ok (0-4 in that first year)

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Sloane 52.9%

9/17
(3 Crusaders, 2 Chiefs, 2 Hurricanes, 2 Highlanders)

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Various 1 season coaches all got 50%

Yes, even Jed Rowlands

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Henry 92.9%

13/14

13 in a row before losing the final in 98

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Clearly Henry belongs in his own category.

From 1999-2011 all of these coaches had a minimum of 50% success rate against NZ teams:
Rowlands 50%
Hunter 50%
Oliver 50%
Sloane 52.9%
Nucifora 50%
Lam 56.3%

Sure, thats not good enough, but they were competitive. They all got a lot of criticism in the press compared to the current coach.

Then came the injury crisis in Lam’s fourth season. I have never been convinced the right action was to sack Lam after that amount of injuries. He had very little support in the media and from the board so he had no chance.

The new normal of shittness has settled in under Kirwan/Umaga

At the moment the only punishment is some public humiliation and going to whatever anger management course his lawyer enlists him in.

I would like to see him removed from the current AB squad. At least then there would be a financial penalty. It also serves as a warning to others

We have a perfectly good squad replacement in Robinson. He should've made the original squad IMO

After that I don't really care. It sounds like a low level incident - he can come back later if he's good enough (..and based on his efforts at Test level so far, he is not good enough)

@frank said in Depth at 10:

Zarn Sullivan is the obvious guy to try.
Problems
-he won't get game time there because of BB playing for Auckland
-he is being used at fullback
-Fozzie is way too conservative to think outside the box and pick him

I think this is getting a bit silly. Sullivan hasn't even had a single start as a ten at NPC level

He's unlikely to get a run at ten because he's been very good for the Blues at fullback. MacDoanld (a decent fullback himself), has raved about Sullivans natural lines from fullback. Maybe his best position is actually fullback?

Maybe he becomes a ten, maybe he doesn't. But the rating he is getting in thread based on almost no adult rugby in the position is over the top

I'll mention a positive

Great to see Hodgman get a bench spot. He's been on a steady improvement for a few years now. A well earned debut

Plenty of other spots to disagree with.. in particular Sotutu should've got a start

Just cancel it. The current ground is good enough for Canterbury. The Crusaders should move to their new power base of Nelson

Cane/Sotutu/Ioane

Savea on the bench

@stargazer

I'm going. I will give comprehensive updates on everyone that doesn't play for Hawkes Bay

@Damo said in Springboks vs All Blacks 2:

I want to stick up for the ref. I thought he was really good. I couldn't find major fault in any decision. I thought he got the YCs exactly correct. He was good in the breakdown about not allowing tacklers to help jacklers get onto the ball. Where the tackler cleared the area he was consistent in penalising isolated players.

With the pace of the game at this level and the complexity of the situation, I don't think that is as good a game as you will ever see.

Also I did not like TJ making sarcastic comments in commentary about last week's ref. That sort of thing is churlish and unbecoming.

Yes the ref was not an issue

TJ's commentary was so unprofessional. Whining first and then occasionally pulling back when watching the replay

It's a wider issue too. I think too many fans are leaping to blaming external forces rather than looking at the coaches/players and the quality of the opposition. We have to earn success.. currently we aren't very good

Agree with the main point of that rugbypass article that it's time to get some new blood in at halfback

Smith, Christie & someone new

Time to move on from TJ & Weber

@NTA said in All Blacks vs Wallabies I:

Sydney for a roughly 30 point win I'd say.

Then Wellington for 40+

Yeah I think we are about 20-30 points better than the Wallabies

However I thought there's a similar gap between us the Argentinians.. This AB side is profoundly stupid and can really fuck up winning positions or get into trouble against sides they shouldn't

I expect two big victories but wouldn't surprised if we have our clown shoes on again

Mo’unga’s skill is running the game, in the line, with the occasional searing break of his own. All the time. He needs to have his hands on the ball most of the plays calling them from virtually every set piece, ruck and maul.

He actually doesn't handle the ball much even at lower levels. Guys like Havili and Jordan come into first receiver a lot at the Crusaders. Mo'unga's strength is picking and choosing his moments. Quite often he sweeps behind the backline looking for a forward to isolate

Against more organised Test match defences the mismatches aren't as common he goes long periods without getting involved.

@Tim said in Crusaders v Chiefs:

@Hooroo Punch a teammate, punch the opposition, punch the missus?

This seems like a good time to bump these posts:

@chchfanatic said in NRL 2019:

kick the useless prick out and never let him put a jersey on again. Wife beaters are up there with paedophiles in my book. What a waste of talent. Fucking loser

@chchfanatic said in NRL 2019:

would you want him playing for your club. Imagine what message that sends to the female members of the club. I say go and get a real job mate.

@Stargazer said in All Blacks starting 10: Beauden Barrett or Richie Mo'unga:

No, he had low scores in the first 3 rounds. Currently, he's kicking better than BB, but obviously, if you average it, BB is still higher.

But if you ignore some of BB misses his %age is even higher

Ardie at 8 isn't a big deal. Papali'i was the form openside in SR and they are having another look at him.

At this stage they clearly aren't comfortable having Papali'i/Jacobson/Ioane as a trio because of their lack of Tests. Maybe that changes later in the year.
They need to get more Tests into all three of those players so I expect some rotation

I expect Jacobson will probably start again in the second Eden Park Test

Ardie has played almost exclusively at no8 in 2020, 2021 & 2022. This is at SR and Test level. He hasn’t played regularly at 7 since 2019

Apparently keeping him in his regular position is playing him out of position & playing him out of position is not playing him out of position

If you want to move him - fine. I can see merit in that and it may well work. The out of position argument isn’t coherent when he’s been at 8 for so long and is playing well

@tim said in All Blacks v France, 2021 NH Tour:

As with the first test against SA, its the 3rd quarter when we use our big carriers up the middle that we look good.

That 20mins was the main positive

It showed the tactics we need to use next year. We have forwards that can get a roll on around the fringes. It's about using them correctly
Taukei’aho, Akira, Savea etc were excellent during that period. They got us back into the game.

@canefan said in Drunk Marshall Abuses All Blacks:

Must have clocked off post match and went straight to the bar to hit the piss with the old boys. Maybe they made him play catch up...

Maybe he starts earlier? His commentary and analysis sounds like it

Papali’i was the ABs third highest tackler with 9

He subbed on in the 66th minute