All Blacks vs Wales
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<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="hydro11" data-cid="580814" data-time="1463660304">
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<p>Who have we lost from the 2015 RWC?</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>McCaw - to be replaced by Cane who has been in the team for four years.</strong></p>
<p><strong>Ma'a Nonu - probably replaced by Ngatai</strong></p>
<p><strong>Conrad Smith - probably replaced by Fekitoa who has been around the team for a few seasons</strong></p>
<p>NMS - probably replaced by Naholo. NMS is definitely our incumbent right winger but pre world cup it looked like Naholo would take that position.</p>
<p>Dan Carter - replaced by Cruden.</p>
<p>Mealamu - only a bench player in 2015.</p>
<p>Ben Franks - only a bench player in 2015</p>
<p>Messam - hardly sighted at the World Cup.</p>
<p>SBW - a good impact player to have on the bench.</p>
<p>TkB - A bit of a blow because he offers something different.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>I think we are only losing 4 players from our best starting line up in 2015. Cruden had probably already overtaken Carter before being injured. Midfield, replacement half back and replacement hookers are all positions with a question mark over them. I think in most positions we have ready made replacements</p>
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<p>Those are the three to be most concerned about IMHO. At this stage all their replacements aren't as good as who they're replacing and maybe never will be.</p> -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Nepia" data-cid="580839" data-time="1463696043">
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<p>TBF, guys like him (and Vito) are more about the depth than the one of loss of a single player. We know that if he had to Messam could slip and do the job in test matches, now we've got a few relatively untried guys who make take some time to find their feet at international level - like Messam did.</p>
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<p>Yep, our top 23 is undoubtedly very strong but injuries to BBBR, Whitelock, Read etc and we have reletively untested starters lining up.</p> -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="rotated" data-cid="580823" data-time="1463683014"><p>
For the Wales tests at hand obviously TKB and SBW are the big two in the loose - assuming Barrett remains on the bench.<br><br>
Hooker is always the wildcard off the bench. It remains to be seen Taylor can bring his game off the bench and slot into the scrum and lineout without missing a beat.<br><br>
For the most part the Cane/Mealamu substitutions were purely fatigue related - they weren't about bringing in game breakers and augmenting the game plan like SBW/Barrett. They would just slot in and things would keep turning over. So the upside of Taylor/Savea in terms of game breaking ability is less exciting to me than the concern that they could throw the rhythm off - coming from the bench.<br><br>
It's a different look that's all. Our outlook is very bright as I said, and it's a great opportunity to blood some guys - but I think for these Wales tests the bench won't be the same predictable weapon it was last year.</p></blockquote>
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I see your point but there is really no reason a guy like Taylor can't come off the bench, put his darts on the mark, scrum well AND add something else. -
I'm pretty confident, actually.<br><br>
Wind back to 1998. A decimated England let us live a few more weeks of obliviousness before the TriNations resulted in a complete dudding. The TriNations could be brutal like that if the other teams are strong.<br><br>
In 1998 both SA and Aus were strong and on the rise.<br><br>
Wind forward to 2016, I see SA and Aus as being as similarly hollowed out as NZ (although that may make SA stronger as they carried a lot of old dead weight).<br><br>
I don't see this rebuilding phase getting ugly as no one is in a position to put the foot on our throat.<br><br>
However I do think the next 2 years or so will be fascinating. -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="No Quarter" data-cid="580841" data-time="1463696521">
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<p>Yep, our top 23 is undoubtedly very strong but injuries to BBBR, Whitelock, Read etc and we have reletively untested starters lining up.</p>
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<p>that's actually not any different to last year. If one of our locks went down we had Romano. If Read went down we had Vito, who was never a great test player anyway. This year if one of our locks goes down we have Tuipolotu/Romano. If Read goes down probably Luatua, who hasn't found his feet at test level yet.</p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p>McCaw and Nonu are our best ever players in their respective jerseys, we are definitely losing something with them not being there. However the guys coming in are either already handy test players, or have great potential/form.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Conrad Smith is one of our best centres ever, and his organising role and ability to consistently make the right decision because of his experience will be harder to replace. But the options also bring other skills Conrad never had.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Dan Carter is our best 10 ever, but he was at the level so rarely over the past 4 years that anyone coming in isn't filling such massive shoes. All options have test runs on the board.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Woody had fallen away, and i think the team improved when he got injured (i feel dirty just saying that). Kev found a second lease on life as an experience closer, but his core skills are easily replaced. </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p>I'm more "worried" about NMS missing (he was probably due 2nd year blues anyway) and Savea not looking in any way effective. We are a little bare behind them, and if Naholo goes down again, we might be a little fucked. </p> -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="mariner4life" data-cid="580864" data-time="1463698680">
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<p>that's actually not any different to last year. If one of our locks went down we had Romano. If Read went down we had Vito, who was never a great test player anyway. This year if one of our locks goes down we have Tuipolotu/Romano. If Read goes down probably Luatua, who hasn't found his feet at test level yet.</p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>McCaw and Nonu are our best ever players in their respective jerseys</strong>, we are definitely losing something with them not being there. However the guys coming in are either already handy test players, or have great potential/form.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Conrad Smith is one of our best centres ever, and his organising role and ability to consistently make the right decision because of his experience will be harder to replace. But the options also bring other skills Conrad never had.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Dan Carter is our best 10 ever, but he was at the level so rarely over the past 4 years that anyone coming in isn't filling such massive shoes. All options have test runs on the board.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Woody had fallen away, and i think the team improved when he got injured (i feel dirty just saying that). Kev found a second lease on life as an experience closer, but his core skills are easily replaced. </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p>I'm more "worried" about NMS missing (he was probably due 2nd year blues anyway) and Savea not looking in any way effective. We are a little bare behind them, and if Naholo goes down again, we might be a little fucked. </p>
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<p>That's probably true but Nonu still isn't on the same level as McCaw because NZ have produced far more outstanding 7s than 12s.</p> -
<p>which adds entirely nothing to the point. cheers. </p>
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<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="mariner4life" data-cid="580864" data-time="1463698680">
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<p>that's actually not any different to last year. If one of our locks went down we had Romano. If Read went down we had Vito, who was never a great test player anyway. This year if one of our locks goes down we have Tuipolotu/Romano. If Read goes down probably Luatua, who hasn't found his feet at test level yet.</p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p>McCaw and Nonu are our best ever players in their respective jerseys, we are definitely losing something with them not being there. However the guys coming in are either already handy test players, or have great potential/form.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Conrad Smith is one of our best centres ever, and his organising role and ability to consistently make the right decision because of his experience will be harder to replace. But the options also bring other skills Conrad never had.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Dan Carter is our best 10 ever, but he was at the level so rarely over the past 4 years that anyone coming in isn't filling such massive shoes. All options have test runs on the board.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Woody had fallen away, and i think the team improved when he got injured (i feel dirty just saying that). Kev found a second lease on life as an experience closer, but his core skills are easily replaced. </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p>I'm more "worried" about NMS missing (he was probably due 2nd year blues anyway) and Savea not looking in any way effective. We are a little bare behind them, and if Naholo goes down again, we might be a little fucked. </p>
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<p>I'm less worried about wing TBH, we tend to pull them out of the bag when needed. I think a guy like James Lowe would iron out his kinks in an AB environment and do a bloody good job if the risk was taken on him. Hell, in 2011 we chucked out reserve centre on to one wing and the other guy took half his professional career to finally get the AB call up.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Loosehead was a bit like 10 for is in 2011 when an out of sorts Slade got injured, Woody got injured and then Collapser got injured and we probably got the best loosehead in the team by default. </p> -
<p>Our loose-head stocks are quite strong. Joe Moody and Crockett are test quality and I wouldn't be suprised if Reggie Goodes makes his way into the environment sooner rather than later. </p>
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I think we are in a great position considering the losses. <br><br>
I won't say blessing in disguise they are gone because that could get taken out of context , but collectively they were all getting long in the tooth , the World Cup was the perfect way to bid farewell . <br>
The new era begins , I'm excited . -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="kiwiinmelb" data-cid="580912" data-time="1463704728">
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<p>I think we are in a great position considering the losses.<br><br>
I won't say blessing in disguise they are gone because that could get taken out of context , but collectively they were all getting long in the tooth , the World Cup was the perfect way to bid farewell .<br>
The new era begins , I'm excited .</p>
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<p>yea, good riddance, what have they done for us lately?</p> -
<p>Didn't Messam give that beanie to that same rich kid that got SBW's winner's medal after flying in from Dubai for the day to watch the final?</p>
<p> </p>
<p>"I say kind sir, one's head is being buffeted by the elements. Do lend me that quaint dock workers' hat with that striking flowery insignia."</p>
<p> </p>
<p>king hit by security </p> -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Immenso Rapido" data-cid="580853" data-time="1463697758">
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<p>I'm pretty confident, actually.<br><br>
Wind back to 1998. A decimated England let us live a few more weeks of obliviousness before the TriNations resulted in a complete dudding. The TriNations could be brutal like that if the other teams are strong.<br><br>
In 1998 both SA and Aus were strong and on the rise.<br><br>
Wind forward to 2016, I see SA and Aus as being as similarly hollowed out as NZ (although that may make SA stronger as they carried a lot of old dead weight).<br><br><strong>I don't see this rebuilding phase getting ugly as no one is in a position to put the foot on our throat.</strong><br><br>
However I do think the next 2 years or so will be fascinating.</p>
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<p>Excellent point. It is noticeable that the relative lack of strength of the opposition this year does not give anyone great cause to be concerned despite our player losses. Of course this is an external factor that we don't control.</p>
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<p>The good thing is that confidence about the year ahead is mostly to do with factors within our control - Hansen consciously developed a significant level of depth within his 2012-15 squad and about 30 of those players who will anchor the team of this era. That depth was developed whilst not making "experiemental" selections which means the probable replacements for the biggest losses in the 1st XV e.g. Cane, Cruden, Fekitoa are already quality test players. </p>
<p> </p>
<p>Then there is the domestic depth - so many good players performing consistently at SR level who are uncapped or barely capped e.g. Naholo, Sopoaga, Ngatai, Dixon, McKenzie, Weber, A. Savea, Todd.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>We're only going to have to dip into the untested stocks in a few instances - a third hooker (Harris or Elliott?), a 5th prop (dunno), perhaps one or two loosies (Squire?), perhaps a 4th midfielder (Moala, Tamanivalu?).</p> -
<p>Losing Conrad's organisational ability particularly on defence is a potential area of concern but overall at the risk of being hubristic I'm more interested in developing towards the Lion's tour than worried about this year.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Super results are always a bit misleading. Sure we might have 4/5 of the top sides but the opposition only have to come up with a squad of their best 22.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>If Oz hadn't also had their player losses they might have looked a worry but they've struggled for replacements more than we have it seems</p> -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="dogmeat" data-cid="580961" data-time="1463722274">
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<p><strong>Losing Conrad's organisational ability particularly on defence is a potential area of concern</strong> but overall at the risk of being hubristic I'm more interested in developing towards the Lion's tour than worried about this year.</p>
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<p>Super results are always a bit misleading. Sure we might have 4/5 of the top sides but the opposition only have to come up with a squad of their best 22.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>If Oz hadn't also had their player losses they might have looked a worry but they've struggled for replacements more than we have it seems</p>
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<p>Is this a bit of reverse racism ? ie Conrad Smith is white so will have no pace, power or explosiveness but he's such a good organiser, without his guidance all the brown boys will tackle late and round the neck ?</p>
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<p>What I'm trying to say is is it a case of "shit, let's get a like for like replacement in Ryan Crotty rather than risk an explosive darker player like Fekitoa or Moala"</p>
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<p>Is CS going to be as missed as others is what I'm trying to get at......</p> -
<p>we're all stupider for reading that</p>
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<p>you really got a way with words there MN5! </p>
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<p>Or was it Friday drinks talking more shit than normal?</p>
