AB bolters thread

Bones

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="leytonandamanda" data-cid="579180" data-time="1463084023">Another possible bolter would be Tom Franklin,I think he has been fantastic 
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Donnelly mark II.

nzzp

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Bones" data-cid="579181" data-time="1463084277">
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Donnelly mark II.
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From memory, Donnelly came in when our lineout was pants, and we were picking Isaac farking Ross. Lightweight, mobile, but hitting rucks wasn't his thing. Donnelly was just a good, solid tight forward grafter. Great at the time, but limited.

SammyC

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="nzzp" data-cid="579182" data-time="1463085632">
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From memory, Donnelly came in when our lineout was pants, and we were picking Isaac farking Ross. Lightweight, mobile, but hitting rucks wasn't his thing. Donnelly was just a good, solid tight forward grafter. Great at the time, but limited.
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never disgraced himself in Black

Provincial Stalwart

There's only two lock spots (maximum) to be filled behind the good Whitelock and BBBR so I can't see them picking any "journeymen" locks in the Donnelly / Thrush mould. Romano is probably only slightly above that journeyman quality I reckon. The start of the RWC cycle is surely the time to be looking at young guys who could be pushing for a bench spot within a year or two i.e. pushing Romano or Tuipolutu out of the squad. In addition, Tuipolutu is still to have his "sophomore" season in the All Blacks - consider what happened in the second year of, say, Faumuina and Luatua's ABs careers, they were dropped for not being fit enough - so he's no certainty to even be around for the Lions tour next year. It's only where the bright prospects fail (or injury crisis) that you consider drafting in the journeymen.
 
I like Fatialofa as the bolter but I don't rate his chances of getting picked.

Chris B.

Key question for me is what balance they decide on for the squad. Generally, I'd think they'd be aiming for:
 
3 loosehead props
3 tightheads
3 hookers
3 or 4 locks
5 or 6 loose forwards
 
3 halfbacks
3 first fives
4 midfield backs
4 outside backs (noting that Beauden Barrett is going to be picked and will be the outside back bench cover)
 
But, muddying the waters a bit is that Nepo Laulala, Paulasi Manu, Messam, SBW and NMS are all sitting in the wings to return in due course, so they can afford to go a bit light in selecting for this series in some places - especially where there's no outstanding 3rd/4th candidate.
 
So they might pick just two of any of tightheads/looseheads/hookers and hope they're not going to get injuries (the Mealamu/Coles strategy). Similarly, maybe just three midfield backs and maybe just two wings. Allowing them to pick a bit heavier in other places.
 
Fullback is really interesting because Smith and Barrett are certainties - I'd imagine they'll pick a third one, with Ben Smith providing the wing cover - but, one of Dagg or DMac is surely going to miss out.

bobily

They might go for two hookers and have Goodes as one of the (6) props. In an emergency he will be able to cover hooker.

Bovidae

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="bobily" data-cid="579220" data-time="1463095677">
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They might go for two hookers and have Goodes as one of the (6) props. In an emergency he will be able to cover hooker.
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A hooker is a more specialist position than a prop so you could get by with only 5 props if that was the case. Same for halfback (like the RWC) at the expense of an outside back. Having said that, they are picking 32 players and can call up replacements immediately if required.
 
If players like DMac and Weber are selected but not in the match 23 for the 1st test I hope they are released to play for the Chiefs against Wales. They would benefit more from that game than sitting in the stands.

bobily

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Bovidae" data-cid="579226" data-time="1463096425">
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A hooker is a more specialist position than a prop so you could get by with only 5 props if that was the case. Same for halfback (like the RWC) at the expense of an outside back. Having said that, they are picking 32 players and can call up replacements immediately if required.
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The only problem with 5 props is that we don't have a genuine option who can play both sides (I believe that Tu'ungafasi is the closest we have - Mitch Graham might be another option?). Reg Goodes is probably the 5th best prop, but if a tighthead goes down, he won't really be an option there (whereas he has actually played a fair bit of hooker to a reasonable level).

Provincial Stalwart

Ben Franks was so useful in the previous era because he could be that utility / 5th prop and eliminate the need for a 6th prop. So the guy to do the Ben Franks role (minus the dumb penalties) is a valuable commodity when you're only selecting 32 players. Tu'ungafasi was selected on that premise for the training camp last year before the Samoa test, but this was when the ABs squad was bloated to nearly 50 players and so he never even travelled to Apia) while Jeffrey Toomaga Allen was picked in that role in 2013 and played 5-10 minutes in Tokyo. So neither guy has any real loyalty "owed' to him by the selectors. And, is either OT or JTA actually good enough? OT is a monster at 6'5" and 130 kgs but he can't scrum well enough in my mind.
 
Because of Nepo Laulala's debut season the selectors have himin reserve might be tempted to try a specialist loosehead. Come in Kane Hames or Reg Goodes?

Stargazer

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="bobily" data-cid="579239" data-time="1463098374">
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The only problem with 5 props is that we don't have a genuine option who can play both sides (I believe that Tu'ungafasi is the closest we have - Mitch Graham might be another option?). Reg Goodes is probably the 5th best prop, but if a tighthead goes down, he won't really be an option there (whereas he has actually played a fair bit of hooker to a reasonable level).
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That makes it extra disappointing that Brendon Edmonds is out until approx. October. He can play both sides and he's been huge for the Highlanders until his injury.

Provincial Stalwart

I made a "simultaneous" post to Bobily, with pretty similar thinking. I swear we don't share a bedrooom.

Provincial Stalwart

Agreed on Brendon Edmonds. Was superb in 2015 as well in the no-name pack which held its own.

Chris B.

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="bobily" data-cid="579239" data-time="1463098374">
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The only problem with 5 props is that we don't have a genuine option who can play both sides (I believe that Tu'ungafasi is the closest we have - Mitch Graham might be another option?). Reg Goodes is probably the 5th best prop, but if a tighthead goes down, he won't really be an option there (whereas he has actually played a fair bit of hooker to a reasonable level).
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I think having a prop who can play both sides is probably a luxury item that won't happen much in the future. But, they might just decide to take the risk that no-one will get injured - and if someone does they'll make a belated call-up for someone to sit on the bench. Particularly likely at tighthead, I think, where the options are less appealing (at least to me) and Laulala provides a pretty convincing third option in due course. Really, though, I think they'll pick six props.
 
More likely that they might pick just two hookers, since Hika is an obvious third option if someone gets injured, but main rumour is that he's on the outside for contravening the ND policy rather than technical reasons.
 
Overall, I think it's likely that they'll just pick five loosies - Read, Cane, Kaino, Savea, Luatua - which seems to cover requirements (Todd, Dixon and, just maybe, Taufua potential alternatives), knowing that they've got Messam to return in due course and Vito can be called up in case of injury (and justifiably left out since he's off).

Provincial Stalwart

I've pencilled Dixon into my 32. Because he's flippin' good and the selectors should be head over heels for him and Ngatai.

bobily

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Chris B." data-cid="579245" data-time="1463099181">
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I think having a prop who can play both sides is probably a luxury item that won't happen much in the future. But, they might just decide to take the risk that no-one will get injured - and if someone does they'll make a belated call-up for someone to sit on the bench. Particularly likely at tighthead, I think, where the options are less appealing (at least to me) and Laulala provides a pretty convincing third option in due course. Really, though, I think they'll pick six props.
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I don't think 5 props is really an option without the dual-sided prop. Sometimes injuries happen in the warm-up, in which case there is not enough time to bring someone in.

Chris B.

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Provincial Stalwart" data-cid="579241" data-time="1463098836">
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Ben Franks was so useful in the previous era because he could be that utility / 5th prop and eliminate the need for a 6th prop. So the guy to do the Ben Franks role (minus the dumb penalties) is a valuable commodity when you're only selecting 32 players. Tu'ungafasi was selected on that premise for the training camp last year before the Samoa test, but this was when the ABs squad was bloated to nearly 50 players and so he never even travelled to Apia) while Jeffrey Toomaga Allen was picked in that role in 2013 and played 5-10 minutes in Tokyo. So neither guy has any real loyalty "owed' to him by the selectors. And, is either OT or JTA actually good enough? OT is a monster at 6'5" and 130 kgs but he can't scrum well enough in my mind.
 
Because of Nepo Laulala's debut season the selectors have himin reserve might be tempted to try a specialist loosehead. Come in Kane Hames or Reg Goodes?
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Pretty much exactly what I'm thinking. I've got pretty strong memories of watching Ta$man absolutely smash the Auckland scrum in last year's ITM Cup, so Tu'ungafasi has plenty of work to redeem himself in my mind. I'd go with JTA despite my aversion to Hurricanes' props. :)
 
Hames is a good call, but I'd think he needs a start for the Chiefs. Goodes is probably the more likely option.
 
So maybe JTA and Goodes, but neither to get caps?

Chris B.

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="bobily" data-cid="579249" data-time="1463099588">
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Sometimes injuries happen in the warm-up, in which case there is not enough time to bring someone in.
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Good point!

bobily

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Chris B." data-cid="579250" data-time="1463099873">
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Pretty much exactly what I'm thinking. I've got pretty strong memories of watching Ta$man absolutely smash the Auckland scrum in last year's ITM Cup, so Tu'ungafasi has plenty of work to redeem himself in my mind. I'd go with JTA despite my aversion to Hurricanes' props. :)
 
Hames is a good call, but I'd think he needs a start for the Chiefs. Goodes is probably the more likely option.
 
So maybe JTA and Goodes, but neither to get caps? 
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There aren't too many options at tighthead, but that'd be what I'd go for. I wouldn't mind Goodes coming off the bench to replace Moody at some point. I wouldn't want JTA playing at this stage, though.
 
As much as I think Goodes will get selected, I hope Hames gets a couple of starts for the Chiefs and puts forward his case for the ABs 17 spot. I'd back him to do very well against most countries' replacement tighthead props.

Bovidae

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="bobily" data-cid="579249" data-time="1463099588">
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I don't think 5 props is really an option without the dual-sided prop. Sometimes injuries happen in the warm-up, in which case there is not enough time to bring someone in.
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Which makes selecting only 2 hookers more of a risk. In the RWC final the ABs had 14 lineout feeds and only 3 scrum feeds (8 scrums in total). I think they'll choose 6 props and 3 hookers to be safe. I never thought that B Franks was actually that good but Cron obviously rated him. He certainly wasn't as good a scrummager as Loe or even Dowd on both sides of the scrum.
 
 
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Provincial Stalwart" data-cid="579241" data-time="1463098836">
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Tu'ungafasi was selected on that premise for the training camp last year before the Samoa test, but this was when the ABs squad was bloated to nearly 50 players and so he never even travelled to Apia)
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I'm sure he was on Apia, as I remember him on the sidelines along with Tamanivalu. Like others, I have reservations about Ofa T's scrummaging. But Charlie's scrummaging isn't great either.

ACT Crusader

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Bovidae" data-cid="579263" data-time="1463103793">
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Which makes selecting only 2 hookers more of a risk. In the RWC final the ABs had 14 lineout feeds and only 3 scrum feeds (8 scrums in total). I think they'll choose 6 props and 3 hookers to be safe. I never thought that B Franks was actually that good but Cron obviously rated him. He certainly wasn't as good a scrummager as Loe or even Dowd on both sides of the scrum.
 
 
 
I'm sure he was on Apia, as I remember him on the sidelines along with Tamanivalu. Like others, I have reservations about Ofa T's scrummaging. But Charlie's scrummaging isn't great either.
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It was interesting how the ABs used Ben Franks. A far better scrummager on the tighthead side from what I could see, but early on the ABs played him predominantly at loosehead.

The Silver Fern

AB bolters thread