RWC Week 3: Wales v Australia

[chimoaus]

@booboo said in RWC Week 3: Wales v Australia:

@MiketheSnow said in RWC Week 3: Wales v Australia:

Wales by 9+ scoring 4 tries in a barn burner

Oz get 2 losing BP

Can see this being a horrible dour game of "don't lose" footy.

Neither team scores 20.

Depends on points

The possible outcomes if both Wales and Australia score 5 point wins vs the minnows and Fiji score two 5 point wins vs minnows

This is how it might pan out.

Australia Win without a bonus point = 15 Points (Qualify #2)
Wales lose without any bonus points = 15 Points (OZ go through as they beat Wales.)
Fiji go through on 16 Points (Qualify #1)

Australia Win with a bonus point = 16 Points
Wales lose with a bonus point = 16 Points
Fiji have 16 Points
(I don't know how they work this out, is it the team with the biggest PD qualify #1 then whoever won between PD 2 & 3?)

Australia Win without a bonus point = 15 Points
Wales lose with a bonus point = 16 Points (Qualify #1 as beat Fiji)
Fiji have 16 Points (Qualify #2)

Australia Win with a bonus point = 16 Points
Wales lose with 2 bonus points = 17 Points (Wales go through #1)
Fiji have 16 Points (Fiji go through as they beat OZ #2)

Australia lose = Exit stage left
Wales win = Go through #1
Fiji = Qualify #2

I think that is right but happy to be corrected.

[Dan54]

@chimoaus geez mate, you should of put a warning with that post, I just had breakfast and having first cuppa of day, and my brain isn't as yet capable of accepting all those permutations!
I think I am feeling a bit weak!

[GibbonRib]

I think this is correct.

Just need to add in the permutations for draws, and the cases where someone fails to get the BP against Portugal / Georgia, and then you'll be done

[GibbonRib]

Someone on Gwlad pointed out that there is a potential scenario where, if it looks like Fiji, Aus & Wales are all going to be tied, then it is Wales' best interests for them to let Aus score as many points as possible. That would mean Aus win the group, and second place would come down to head-to-head result between Fiji & Wales

[Machpants]

Really is up in the air and there are far too many permutations. After this weekend, things will be a lot clearer in that pool

[MiketheSnow]

@GibbonRib said in RWC Week 3: Wales v Australia:

Someone on Gwlad pointed out that there is a potential scenario where, if it looks like Fiji, Aus & Wales are all going to be tied, then it is Wales' best interests for them to let Aus score as many points as possible. That would mean Aus win the group, and second place would come down to head-to-head result between Fiji & Wales

Except it’s not the last match

[MiketheSnow]

Any team that tries to game the system could easily come unstuck

A 15-man Georgia could definitely beat a 14-man Wales or Fiji

And the way the tackles are coming in and the cards being dished out, that scenario is very realistic

[GibbonRib]

@MiketheSnow said in RWC Week 3: Wales v Australia:

@GibbonRib said in RWC Week 3: Wales v Australia:

Someone on Gwlad pointed out that there is a potential scenario where, if it looks like Fiji, Aus & Wales are all going to be tied, then it is Wales' best interests for them to let Aus score as many points as possible. That would mean Aus win the group, and second place would come down to head-to-head result between Fiji & Wales

Except it’s not the last match

Hey, I didn't say that it would happen, just that it could.

But yeah, it won't.

[antipodean]

So I read McLennan is absolving himself of blame here by saying that this loss was "20 years in the making". He even goes as far as saying neither Eddie, nor the players are at fault - it's everyone that has come before this glorious group of saviours.

[Chris]

@antipodean

FFS McLennan what a complete tool.

[NTA]

@antipodean said in RWC Week 3: Wales v Australia:

So I read McLennan is absolving himself of blame here by saying that this loss was "20 years in the making". He even goes as far as saying neither Eddie, nor the players are at fault - it's everyone that has come before this glorious group of saviours.

Look, he isn't wrong in that the systems are fucked, and have been since the turn of the century.

I've been saying it for years.

The fact that McLennan bignoted himself by fucking Rennie (and Marinos in the process) says all you need to know about the fluffybunny.

Another who isn't very popular around the tables of a rugby piston wristed gibbon lunch.

[profitius]

You'd think Wales will win this one but who knows. Wales beat Fiji, Aussies lost to Fiji but Wales had a much harder time trying to contain the Fiji attack.

Wales look better coached so I think they'll win even though the Aussies have better players.

[NTA]

Wales have a better plan. Provided Biggar stays on the park for the crucial minutes, they win.

Only concern they might have is lineout where Frost started to pick apart Fiji later in the game.

[MiketheSnow]

@NTA said in RWC Week 3: Wales v Australia:

Wales have a better plan. Provided Biggar stays on the park for the crucial minutes, they win.

Only concern they might have is lineout where Frost started to pick apart Fiji later in the game.

That’s why it should be Elias to start and Dee to finish

Lake isn’t accurate enough

[KiwiMurph]

https://www.theroar.com.au/2023/09/21/exclusive-eddie-set-for-fly-half-switch-as-wallabies-look-to-keep-rwc-alive-against-wales-big-name-back-to-return/

[NTA]

For
Fucks
Sake

[NTA]

"yeeeeeah mate we back him mate young blokes have off days maaaaaaaate she'll be right smash n grab maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaate"

[gt12]

@NTA said in RWC Week 3: Wales v Australia:

For
Fucks
Sake

That’s the way to give your young 10 of the future some confidence.

[Machpants]

Eddie has utterly lost the plot

[antipodean]

Apparently Max Jorgensen is out of the RWC with a broken leg.