Super Rugby 2024
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@Kiwiwomble said in Super Rugby 2024:
@Machpants oh, in my head i thought the drua were an aussie licence and MP were a NZR one
I am pretty sure NZR own both. WR are paying some money in, and Ozzie Govt are doing some Fiji sport funding. It would be nice if this was all transparent, but nah
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From what has been seen so far, I think it is a reasonably safe bet to say that the Top 4 (in no particular order) will be the Chiefs, Blues, Hurricanes and Reds. I would suggest the Brumbies are highly likely to come 5th.
On the assumption the Crusaders probably drop their next two, just due to the amount of catch-up required, I think you can then make a pretty fair argument the Highlanders and Waratahs fill 6th and 7th. Whether the Crusaders can sneak into 8th, will come down to both how quickly they turn things around after going 0-6, and how consistent the Drua are. Chances are, the number ends up being 5 or 6 wins, and that will be decided by the Drua I'd suggest.
So basically, I'd be willing to stick my neck out on the line to say that either the Crusaders miss the 8, or they'll sneak 8th, which with players coming back and momentum from having been in good form could end up being the absolute worst booby prize for coming 1st.
There'd be something really funny about the Blues going 11 in a row, only to fall to the Crusaders in the quarter-finals... if the Reds could nick 2nd by virtue of all the New Zealand sides beating each other, then they are a red-hot chance at a home final...
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Last year five wins was enough to be 8th on the table (Reds), but also saw the Force finish 10th. Six wins might be needed to make the playoffs.
The Crusaders' remaining matches are:
Chiefs (A)
Bye
Waratahs (A)
Force (A)
Rebels (H)
Reds (H)
Highlanders (A)
Brumbies (A)
Blues (H)
Moana Pasifika (H)Beating Waratahs (A), Force (A), Rebels (H), Highlanders (A), and Moana Pasifika (H) would give them five wins, so they'd probably have to pick up another win.
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The Brumbies have had a soft draw so far and should fall down the table after playing the Reds, Blues and Canes in the next month
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@Tim on current form they could also lose a couple of those aswell. Right now I'd pick the Landers to beat the Crusaders, especially at home. They've already lost to the Tahs and if the Force play like they did last night they won't be easy to beat in Perth. Interesting times indeed.
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@sparky said in Super Rugby 2024:
Matt's right. And I'm sure Canterbury and Ta$man folk will be more than happy to cheer for the Hurricanes or the Highlanders when their own underachieving franchise gets mothballed.
Super rich coming from an Australian.
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@Tim said in Super Rugby 2024:
Last year five wins was enough to be 8th on the table (Reds), but also saw the Force finish 10th. Six wins might be needed to make the playoffs.
The Crusaders' remaining matches are:
Chiefs (A)
Bye
Waratahs (A)
Force (A)
Rebels (H)
Reds (H)
Highlanders (A)
Brumbies (A)
Blues (H)
Moana Pasifika (H)Beating Waratahs (A), Force (A), Rebels (H), Highlanders (A), and Moana Pasifika (H) would give them five wins, so they'd probably have to pick up another win.
Reckon they'll still sneak home, particularly with players coming back.
Assuming they lose to the Chiefs though, the margin of error is admittedly quite small. If they can beat the Tahs and the Force though, you wouldn't bet against them 5 or 6 in a row.
As funny as it is that they are 0-5, I'm still not convinced they are that bad. Chiefs & Canes games were a flip of a coin, and Fiji is a tough place to go to. The Tahs game in many ways was a bit of a freak one where everything went wrong.
Last night probably the first really poor performance I thought.
