Chiefs v Hurricanes
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Still not many updates on injuries but I expect all of Barrett, Lomax and ASavea will take a rest this week against the Chiefs.
I'd like Delany to get a start at 6 with Flanders moving to 8. I would move Mafileo into the 3 jersey to replace Lomax, and I assume Umaga-Jensen will slot into the 12 jersey. Hopefully Higgins comes into the reserves.
We also know Godfrey won't be available so it will be interesting to see who will be back-up 10 to Morgan.
Hopefully we get one of Aumua and Coles back even though Devery was solid in his debut start.
Predicted 23:
- X Numia
- A Aumua
- T Mafileo
- J Blackwell
- I Walker-Leawere
- C Delany
- D Kirifi
- D Flanders
- C Roigard
- A Morgan
- K Naholo
- P Umaga-Jensen
- B Proctor
- J Savea
- J Moorby
- D Coles/J Devery
- P Rakete-Stones
- O Franks
- J Sangster/D Bird
- B Iose
- J Booth
- ? (first five cover)
- R Higgins
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@Canes4life That's more a "preferred 23" than a "predicted 23", isn't it?
And why would they rest ABs like A. Savea, Lomax and Barrett in what's probably the most difficult round robin game of the season? Or are you suggesting the Canes should throw this game?
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@Stargazer no that's a predicted side based on who's available. Who would you select?
Well, ASavea, JBarrett and Lomax need to be rested for one more week. Why would you rest them against the Blues and Crusaders, they are closer to us on the table so it's more important for us to beat them isn't it?
I'm not saying throw the game against the Chiefs because we have quality depth, I'm saying this week is the game that makes the most sense to rest our All Blacks because winning the other two are probably more important in reference to where everyone sits on the table. Holland and co are the ones that put us in this predicament, I'm trying to predict a side based on players not being available.
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Tough thing for the Canes to win the comp from here will be not just the next 3 games, but how to manage your squad through the playoffs potentially to get to a final and win it, that is 6 big high intensity games in a row that is a hard ask.
Canes need to at least bag 3rd place to get an easier QF to ease the load. -
Odds are against Canes getting 3rd spot going by the draw. If they really want to have a crack at it they need to focus on the Saders and Blues games, not the Chiefs. A win against the Chiefs might give them points but a win against the others is a double-whammy on their contenders.
No one wants to throw games but as we have seen with most teams this year, under AB and Wallaby resting protocols you have to choose resting wisely and sometimes it is better to pick a game that you will get minimal points as opposed to a good 5 point match up.
Blues nearly came unstuck against MP and lost a point on the table -
@Crucial agreed, the Blues and Crusaders games are the ones to focus on as you've mentioned above.
Another tactic could be to rest our top team all together this week so then it's only 5 intense games (if we make it all the way to the final).
My assumption right now is that the Blues game next weekend could very well decide who comes 4th/5th, especially if they manage to slip up against the Reds in Brisbane aswell.
Definitely an interesting couple weeks ahead but at the end of the day this week is the week to rest those three ABs that require a break.
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@Canes4life 4th or 5th matters little except for a home game. If home game advantage really is a thing (or the management want the gate takings) then by all means go for it.
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@Chris the positive thing about playing three intense games before the playoffs is that it battle-hardens a team. I've seen the Canes slip up on so many occasions because they've played easier games leading into the playoffs, so maybe this is what they need to prepare for the big matches later on.
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@Crucial said in Hurricanes vs Chiefs:
@Canes4life 4th or 5th matters little except for a home game. If home game advantage really is a thing (or the management want the gate takings) then by all means go for it.
It's not that one game at home makes that much difference, but repeating travel week after week when you are tired is disastrous.
There's not many away wins in the final. (Yes, partly because the better teams are usually at home, but the disparity is quite a lot larger than that.)
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@Chester-Draws good point. Although only domestic travel left and the last RR game being at home any potential semi or final is likely to be away.
The one everyone wants to avoid is travel to Canberra which would happen if Brumbies end up second.
I suspect that may not be the case though.
Still, travelling back and forth every week must be harder than staying at home. -
Remember that Chiefs have their short Oz tour to come after this match (Canberra and Perth) then back for a home quarter.
Not sure how that will affect things but at the moment Force, Drua, Rebels and Highlanders are fighting for that 8 slot or Reds/Tahs 7th. Either way a quarter may be against a team that has had to travel a way.
You want momentum and the Force are capable at home.
Are there limitations on travelling squads? Or can you swap some players out?
I'd be tempted to go all out in this one, see what happens in other games, then decide whether to do any resting against the Brumbies.
Finau got pretty bashed about last game and Jacobsen has had a big workload. DMac hasn't had a rest but Gatland is out and Ioane underdone.
Basically I haven't a clue but I don't think we can do 6 weeks of the top XV/23 with travel and expect to be firing at a final. -
I was thinking about what the Chiefs may do myself. Obviously they need to beat the Canes first and then look to win in Canberra. Then I'd be sending a lot of the best players home to avoid traveling to Perth. I would assume that the rest would stay in Aust to avoid unnecessary travel and the extras would join them.
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@Canes4life said in Chiefs v Hurricanes:
@Chris the positive thing about playing three intense games before the playoffs is that it battle-hardens a team. I've seen the Canes slip up on so many occasions because they've played easier games leading into the playoffs, so maybe this is what they need to prepare for the big matches later on.
The Hurricanes haven't beaten the Chiefs or Crusaders since 2020, I think they are overdue a win against one of the 'big' sides, but only one (it'll probably be the Blues) as they lack consistently to back it up, the next few weeks are going to define Jason Holland's tenure.
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@kiwi_expat said in Chiefs v Hurricanes:
@Canes4life said in Chiefs v Hurricanes:
@Chris the positive thing about playing three intense games before the playoffs is that it battle-hardens a team. I've seen the Canes slip up on so many occasions because they've played easier games leading into the playoffs, so maybe this is what they need to prepare for the big matches later on.
The Hurricanes haven't beaten the Chiefs or Crusaders since 2020, I think they are overdue a win against one of the 'big' sides, but only one (it'll probably be the Blues) as they lack consistently to back it up, the next few weeks are going to define Jason Holland's tenure.
Well they won't beat the Saders. There's an unwritten rule that Razor's assistants aren't allowed to show him up.
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The Hurricanes really need to deliver on their potential this year and match the top 3-4 sides, in previous seasons Holland has had a few variables such as rebuilding in key positions, injuries & a young developing forward pack, but they now have a world class 12/13 pairing, a matured front-row (Numia, Aumua, Lomax, are been now peaking in terms of their development). There's a chunk of guys from the 2022 Lion's squad who are also entering the prime, such as Aumua, Kirifi, Proctor, Delany, etc.. their starting front-row is the strongest it's been in many years, perhaps decades even.
The rebuilding/excuse filled years are over, they have the squad to beat anyone, Hurricanes have to deliver on their potential over the next 5 weeks, 1 win (minimum) vs Blues/Chiefs/Crusaders & a Semi-Final appearance and Holland can leave with respect, anything less and his tenure as head coach will be remembered as one of disappointment and missed opportunity.
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@kiwi_expat said in Chiefs v Hurricanes:
The Hurricanes really need to deliver on their potential this year and match the top 3-4 sides, in previous seasons Holland has had a few variables such as rebuilding in key positions, injuries & a young developing forward pack, but they now have a world class 12/13 pairing, a matured front-row (Numia, Aumua, Lomax, are been now peaking in terms of their development). There's a chunk of guys from the 2022 Lion's squad who are also entering the prime, such as Aumua, Kirifi, Proctor, Delany, etc.. their starting front-row is the strongest it's been in many years, perhaps decades even.
The rebuilding/excuse filled years are over, they have the squad to beat anyone, Hurricanes have to deliver on their potential over the next 5 weeks, 1 win (minimum) vs Blues/Chiefs/Crusaders & a Semi-Final appearance and Holland can leave with respect, anything less and his tenure as head coach will be remembered as one of disappointment and missed opportunity.
Agree with all that except one thing not mentioned. A lack of 10. At least they might have fixed that if Cameron had stayed up, but his injury (and Love's) left them weak in the wrong spot.
I guess that's why some teams hoard 10s. -
their problems haven't come from 10 though, watch Chiefs loss, it was Holland's bench management, he subbed his largest lock and largest loose forward (Flanders) and replaced them with 2 small loose forwards, he also replaced Roigard for Booth around 55 minute mark and that proved to be detrimental as Roigard was their most influential player up to that point.
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@kiwi_expat said in Chiefs v Hurricanes:
their problems haven't come from 10 though, watch Chiefs loss, it was Holland's bench management, he subbed his largest lock and largest loose forward (Flanders) and replaced them with 2 small loose forwards, he also replaced Roigard for Booth around 55 minute mark and that proved to be detrimental as Roigard was their most influential player up to that point.
What I meant was yes, they should have no excuses this year, but the injuries to 10s will be what the hat is hung on.
