All Blacks 2023
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@Victor-Meldrew said in All Blacks 2023:
@Chris said in All Blacks 2023:
@Kiwiwomble said in All Blacks 2023:
@Crucial yes, we either need a new game plan that plays to our world class talent...or they need to be dropped for people that can just do the game plan we currently have...we need to pick a lane and stop trying to have both
100 % yes.
You sort of think the coaching staff in charge of developing a winning AB team would have come to this conclusion a few years ago.
As a coach you sit down before taking something on and devise how you want to play, what talent you have and how it fits in to what you perceive as a winning game plan.
More so if you are planning 4 years in advance to get to a WC with a high chance of winning that WC as there are more variables in a 4 year cycle.If it were that simple, you'd be right. But I'm not sure it is.
It's based on the assumption that NZ has, and will always have, a superior talent pool, all the world-class players they'll ever need for whatever game-plan is chosen, that only the coaching staff matter and winning or losing is down to them and their choice of game-plan and players alone.
In the real world, your talent pool is limited and other countries often have better resources, players and infrastructure. If you're good or lucky, the compromises you invariably have to make work out OK - most of the time.
thats not what i meant, i dont think that player B is as good as Player A in a straight up comparison, i mean that Player B might work better with the other players or the game plan that the coaches want to play, greater than the sum of their parts. so definitely not claiming we have an unlimited pool or world class players....we just might need to try using a couple of not quite world class....on paper
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@Kiwiwomble said in All Blacks 2023:
@Victor-Meldrew said in All Blacks 2023:
@Chris said in All Blacks 2023:
@Kiwiwomble said in All Blacks 2023:
@Crucial yes, we either need a new game plan that plays to our world class talent...or they need to be dropped for people that can just do the game plan we currently have...we need to pick a lane and stop trying to have both
100 % yes.
You sort of think the coaching staff in charge of developing a winning AB team would have come to this conclusion a few years ago.
As a coach you sit down before taking something on and devise how you want to play, what talent you have and how it fits in to what you perceive as a winning game plan.
More so if you are planning 4 years in advance to get to a WC with a high chance of winning that WC as there are more variables in a 4 year cycle.If it were that simple, you'd be right. But I'm not sure it is.
It's based on the assumption that NZ has, and will always have, a superior talent pool, all the world-class players they'll ever need for whatever game-plan is chosen, that only the coaching staff matter and winning or losing is down to them and their choice of game-plan and players alone.
In the real world, your talent pool is limited and other countries often have better resources, players and infrastructure. If you're good or lucky, the compromises you invariably have to make work out OK - most of the time.
thats not what i meant, i dont think that player B is as good as Player A in a straight up comparison, i mean that Player B might work better with the other players or the game plan that the coaches want to play, greater than the sum of their parts. so definitely not claiming we have an unlimited pool or world class players....we just might need to try using a couple of not quite world class....on paper
That is right,I am sure as most coaches do they use Depth charts to understand what tier 2 /3 looks like wether they can sustain the game plan they want to play, and tweak the gameplay according to what the overall depth is.
In my Job we do it right down to u/16 level to identify player's coming though which fit how we play to be successful as we can for the next cycle of 4 or 5 years.I would think an advanced set up like the AB's are all over this and are doing it.
But maybe they are confused about the structure v the player depth to sustain their game plan. -
@Chris-B said in All Blacks 2023:
@Kiwiwomble said in All Blacks 2023:
@Chris-B said in All Blacks 2023:
Poor old Beaudy - two time World Player of the Year playing first five...... living in the outhouse.
I think we're waaay harsh on our first fives.
If Handre Pollard was one of ours, we'd think he was complete rubbish.
most recently in 2017...is he any better now that 6 years ago...is he even that good now?
Not really the point I'm making.
I'm pretty sure Danny Boy and Cruden aren't world class these days either.
Carter would probably still tackle distribute and kick the ball better than Richie or BB and his running might be a little braver than the latter...
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@taniwharugby said in All Blacks 2023:
@Dan54 were many calling for both Richie and DC to be left behind, particularly in the media, Rattue was leading the charge and plenty on talk back too.
yes but what about someone who likes rugby?
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@Chris-B said in All Blacks 2023:
@Kiwiwomble We were relying on Danny in 2015, but most people would rather have had Cruden playing first five if he wasn't broken - especially as Dan (and Richie McCaw) phoned it in for yet another Super season under Toddy Blackadder.
Four years ago, who would have traded Richie or Beaudy for the creaking Jonny Sexton who'd just had his arse handed to him in a hat in Japan?
We can win the RWC with our first fives - especially Richie. And if we can't, how come our other AB laden Super teams can't ever seem to stop him at the business end of Super rugby?
The Crusaders success at Super level is more centered around their pack controlling the match rather than their star 10 driving them around the field. Not to take too much away from Mo'unga, he's very effective at Super level, but his game just hasn't translated to test level at all thus far.
An example of this is he often stations himself wider looking for mismatches, which he invariably finds at Super level as all teams have journeymen that can be exploited. He's tried the same for the ABs and has just gone completely missing for multiple phases of play as those mismatches don't really exist at that level. As a result the ABs look clueless as nobody is driving the team around the park and we end up under the pump. It's a big reason why he can look a million bucks against the lesser teams like the Wallabies, but as soon as we are up against an organised defense, e.g. SA or Ireland, he's completely anonymous.
That's why I say he's not good enough, as I'm really not sure he has the skillset and mental attributes required to control a big test, especially a RWC knock-out match.
It's a real shame Beauden's form hasn't been good, as he's easily our best 10 as he commands the ball and tries to direct play, and is not afraid to take the line on against the tougher defenses. If he can recapture his form from a few years ago then we'd be in a much better place. I'm really hoping DMac can play that role, but the jury is out on that against the best teams.
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Yeah, I get that. My response was to @Chris 's apparent view that any AB coach should be able to sit down, devise a winning game-plan and then pick the players for it.
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@Victor-Meldrew said in All Blacks 2023:
Yeah, I get that. My response was to @Chris 's apparent view that any AB coach should be able to sit down, devise a winning game-plan and then pick the players for it.
If they can not achieve that, why are they being paid to be AB coach.
The alternative is to select the wrong players for a winning game plan,or the wrong game plan for the right players.The coach is employed to win and develop to keep winning.
I do not get paid as a coach to do anything but win championships and to develop the 2nd tier 3rd tier players and youth players to keep winning.
That is my contract directive,I am sure the AB coaches have objectives to hit to stay employed.History tells us winning coaches are in demand losing coaches not so much.
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@Chris said in All Blacks 2023:
If they can not achieve that, why are they being paid to be AB coach.
Because no AB coach can sit down - before taking the job on - and 100% predict or control injuries, the quality of the players available to him for his chosen game plan, nor the quality and ability of the opposition to come up with a better game plan, perhaps?
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@No-Quarter said in All Blacks 2023:
@Chris-B said in All Blacks 2023:
@Kiwiwomble We were relying on Danny in 2015, but most people would rather have had Cruden playing first five if he wasn't broken - especially as Dan (and Richie McCaw) phoned it in for yet another Super season under Toddy Blackadder.
Four years ago, who would have traded Richie or Beaudy for the creaking Jonny Sexton who'd just had his arse handed to him in a hat in Japan?
We can win the RWC with our first fives - especially Richie. And if we can't, how come our other AB laden Super teams can't ever seem to stop him at the business end of Super rugby?
The Crusaders success at Super level is more centered around their pack controlling the match rather than their star 10 driving them around the field. Not to take too much away from Mo'unga, he's very effective at Super level, but his game just hasn't translated to test level at all thus far.
An example of this is he often stations himself wider looking for mismatches, which he invariably finds at Super level as all teams have journeymen that can be exploited. He's tried the same for the ABs and has just gone completely missing for multiple phases of play as those mismatches don't really exist at that level. As a result the ABs look clueless as nobody is driving the team around the park and we end up under the pump. It's a big reason why he can look a million bucks against the lesser teams like the Wallabies, but as soon as we are up against an organised defense, e.g. SA or Ireland, he's completely anonymous.
That's why I say he's not good enough, as I'm really not sure he has the skillset and mental attributes required to control a big test, especially a RWC knock-out match.
It's a real shame Beauden's form hasn't been good, as he's easily our best 10 as he commands the ball and tries to direct play, and is not afraid to take the line on against the tougher defenses. If he can recapture his form from a few years ago then we'd be in a much better place. I'm really hoping DMac can play that role, but the jury is out on that against the best teams.
There's a lot of egg in that mix, NQ!!!
I'm going to start by quoting an un-named journo* on Richie. "The finest Super Rugby player of all time"!
I think he's right - but, it's hard to compare across positions, so I'll stick with with "the best and most influential 10". He's got a significantly better winning record than Danny in Super rugby - he's never lost a play-off game. Similar with Canterbury in the NPC - he might have lost once to the Mako.
It's not forward dominant - it's Richie-dominant. Whenever he's been missing and we've played the likes of Mitch Hunt, Dave Havili and Fergus Burke at first five - and I reckon we've barely won 50% of those games. With Richie at the helm we win 85% of the time and the losses to date have never been in the big knock-out games.
Watch Razor talking about "his franchise quarterback", "...his Steph Curry". It is quite a shame we're unlikely to see them paired for the ABs.
So, that's what I have to say in response to Richie's Super rugby record. He's got a winner's mentality, so I'm not sure why you would question that when his competition have repeatedly failed at that level. (Yeah, I know that comment isn't going to be popular).
Moving to test rugby, well, you're setting me up for an "I told you so" when we don't win the RWC later this year and the odds are a bit against us.
But, Beaudy got pretty comprehensively toppled from his perch as first choice 1st five in the middle of last season and DMac's had two starts ever at 10 for the ABs. Barring a catastrophe, Richie is going to be our starting first five at RWC 2023 - this is obvious even to Blind Freddie.
It's also a good thing.
There was a thread a while ago about the most important player at RWC 2023 - and for most teams, people were picking the first five - Sexton, Ntamack, etc - but, for NZ I don't think anyone did.
In your dreams!!!
Our most important player will be our first five - and it will be Richie.
And he can win it for us - admittedly channeling a bit more Carlos than Danny-Boy.
You've noted that he is completely anonymous against Ireland and SA.
Well, here's some stats to ponder.
Against Ireland, the only game Richie has started is the RWC quarter final when we thumped them 46-15. He's played off the bench five other times (with Beaudy starting) for one win and four losses.
Against the Jaapies he's started 3 games for two wins and a draw. Off the bench, he's one win and two losses.
It's small samples, but it suggest to me that he's someone you start and let command the game, not someone to pull the fat out of the fire in the last 20 minutes.
Richie's only lost five times starting, in an era of somewhat inept coaching and a slightly substandard team.
Go Richie!!!
- The journo is Reason, but his discussion will help you feel better when we're starting Richie at RWC2023.
** Fuck you all and especially anyone who refuses to read the Reason article !!!
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@Victor-Meldrew said in All Blacks 2023:
@Chris said in All Blacks 2023:
If they can not achieve that, why are they being paid to be AB coach.
Because no AB coach can sit down - before taking the job on - and 100% predict or control injuries, the quality of the players available to him for his chosen game plan, nor the quality and ability of the opposition to come up with a better game plan, perhaps?
That is why you create live depth charts right down to your u/16s, to understand what your depth is to sustain the game plan you develop, its basic coaching strategy,and wether you have the depth for tweaks you need when variables come along.
Hard to explain to some one who is not involved in the coaching world and makes a living out of it.
But I will leave it there as it something coaches understand -
@Victor-Meldrew said in All Blacks 2023:
@Chris said in All Blacks 2023:
If they can not achieve that, why are they being paid to be AB coach.
Because no AB coach can sit down - before taking the job on - and 100% predict or control injuries, the quality of the players available to him for his chosen game plan, nor the quality and ability of the opposition to come up with a better game plan, perhaps?
A new AB coach who had been an assistant AB coach before, should have some idea?
Oh, Ian Foster. -
@Chris said in All Blacks 2023:
@Victor-Meldrew said in All Blacks 2023:
@Chris said in All Blacks 2023:
If they can not achieve that, why are they being paid to be AB coach.
Because no AB coach can sit down - before taking the job on - and 100% predict or control injuries, the quality of the players available to him for his chosen game plan, nor the quality and ability of the opposition to come up with a better game plan, perhaps?
That is why you create live depth charts right down to your u/16s, to understand what your depth is to sustain the game plan you develop, its basic coaching strategy,and wether you have the depth for tweaks you need when variables come along.
I really don't think you can expect a AB Coach - before he's even got the job remember - to produce a winning game plan based on live depth charts down to U16 level that he's developed, and then judge him on the success of that self-same game-plan.
The world just doesn't work like that, sadly.
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@nostrildamus said in All Blacks 2023:
@Victor-Meldrew said in All Blacks 2023:
@Chris said in All Blacks 2023:
If they can not achieve that, why are they being paid to be AB coach.
Because no AB coach can sit down - before taking the job on - and 100% predict or control injuries, the quality of the players available to him for his chosen game plan, nor the quality and ability of the opposition to come up with a better game plan, perhaps?
A new AB coach who had been an assistant AB coach before, should have some idea?
Oh, Ian Foster.Wrong thread.
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@Chris-B said in All Blacks 2023:
That's a great post, a minority viewpoint but buttressed by point-by-point facts, and then out of nowhere springs gratuitous, comic abuse.
You are now the gold standard in TSF rugby-related posts as far as I'm concerned. -
@Victor-Meldrew said in All Blacks 2023:
@nostrildamus said in All Blacks 2023:
@Victor-Meldrew said in All Blacks 2023:
@Chris said in All Blacks 2023:
If they can not achieve that, why are they being paid to be AB coach.
Because no AB coach can sit down - before taking the job on - and 100% predict or control injuries, the quality of the players available to him for his chosen game plan, nor the quality and ability of the opposition to come up with a better game plan, perhaps?
A new AB coach who had been an assistant AB coach before, should have some idea?
Oh, Ian Foster.Wrong thread.
This thread title says "All Blacks 2023" not "All Blacks 2024". Somehow, despite his apparent faults, I think the AB 2023 head coach is related.
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@nostrildamus said in All Blacks 2023:
@Chris-B said in All Blacks 2023:
That's a great post, a minority viewpoint but buttressed by point-by-point facts, and then out of nowhere springs gratuitous, comic abuse.
You are now the gold standard in TSF rugby-related posts as far as I'm concerned.No-one's wanted the gold standard since the 1930s.
It's the gratuitous abuse that sets the standard!
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@Machpants said in All Blacks 2023:
@Chris-B Sadly you're correct, he's our best 10. Apart from OZ, I'd take any other Tier 1 top #10 instead, if I had the choice
I honestly wouldn't.
Put Richie in the Ireland set-up and I reckon we'd be fucked. He can do everything Sexton does and more. Our coaches need to meet the Ireland mark.
I occasionally try to watch Ntamack but he never seems to be playing. My fault.
I would not take Handre ahead of Richie!!!!! !!!!! a few more !!! for good measure.
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@Chris-B said in All Blacks 2023:
@Machpants said in All Blacks 2023:
@Chris-B Sadly you're correct, he's our best 10. Apart from OZ, I'd take any other Tier 1 top #10 instead, if I had the choice
I honestly wouldn't.
Put Richie in the Ireland set-up and I reckon we'd be fucked. He can do everything Sexton does and more. Our coaches need to meet the Ireland mark.
I occasionally try to watch Ntamack but he never seems to be playing. My fault.
I would not take Handre ahead of Richie!!!!! !!!!! a few more !!! for good measure.
I would because all of them can control a test, I've seen them do it, but I've not seen Richie do that ever in a tough test. And when it comes to the knockouts, that's what matters. He hasn't got that skill, Handre does, Sexton, Farrell. But none of the current NZ 10s do, they are game breakers and wizards, not 10s that can grab the game by the scruff of the neck and sort it. Aaron Smith did, once test 1 Lions, so maybe he can? But that powder is so dry it is ridiculous
