All Blacks 2022
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@chris said in All Blacks 2022:
@crucial said in All Blacks 2022:
@mariner4life said in All Blacks 2022:
IMO the ABs success over the past two decades has been built on
Defense, don't concede more than 20 points
Counter-attack. Ruthlessly exploit turnover and bad kicking to score the 23 points needed to win.We're not a multi-phase structure sort of side, other than to pull teams ragged to open those counter-attack opportunities (why we used to win so many games late). We don't bash teams in to submission. At our best we were very pragmatic with our field position, doing fuck all in our half (except on turnover).
What helped us was the inherent quality of our backs, and the fact that all our forwards have ball skills so movements don't die with them. Our level of support play was also second to none, guys would be queuing up to score.
Which is why the keys to beating us have been the same for ages. Don't turn the ball over. Don't kick aimlessly.
Where i think we have fallen down is, we are still trying to play this game. But, we are generating far fewer turnovers and our slightly passive linespeed means there are less shit kicks delivered to our back 3.
Why are we getting less turnovers? Other teams are winning collisions, making turnovers very hard, and we don't have breakdown guys of the quality we used to have.
Our overall skills are down meaning we shell maybe one or two more opportunities than we used to.
And our defence has gone from our greatest strength to i think our biggest weakness. Could you see the current side trapping South Africa in their 22 and just keeping them there to win a RWC semi?
And there is your difference.So where is plan B?
Doesn't need to be a big plan B just adjustments to what you outline there. I think the coaches are trying things but haven't nailed either the right plan or the right people so then they search for the person only to find it was the plan that was wrong all along.
The defence is probably an example. To the outside it seems we are trying to deliberately suck runners forward rather than meet them before the advantage line. Trying to create those turnover opportunities that have dried up as other teams have got better. It hasn't worked so we need to change again.
I like what Ireland do against rush D. They take a sevens approach and stay deep then identify if/when the defence has got out of line. The opposition realise that they can't rush without creating gaps and get flat footed, creating opportunities to sit them on their heels.So are we trying to pick players for The AB coaches plan.
Or are they Picking players and trying to form a plan around the players ?.
The latter it seems, maybe Pick players who can implement the coaching staffs plan is where they need to go.I don't think it is as simple as that. eg you can pick a plan and think that the players you have selected will be able to execute it but if it doesn't pan out you may try someone else in a key role or you might adjust the plan.
There is still a big element of picking the best players but IMO the tweaking and experimenting comes around the loose forwards and the back three.
I'll fan the fire and use Akira as an example. They made a plan around him to get go forward ball close in but it didn't really work. Then you have to wonder 'are you using him well or he not the right guy' -
Meanwhile some interesting comments in this..
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@crucial said in All Blacks 2022:
@chris said in All Blacks 2022:
@crucial said in All Blacks 2022:
@mariner4life said in All Blacks 2022:
IMO the ABs success over the past two decades has been built on
Defense, don't concede more than 20 points
Counter-attack. Ruthlessly exploit turnover and bad kicking to score the 23 points needed to win.We're not a multi-phase structure sort of side, other than to pull teams ragged to open those counter-attack opportunities (why we used to win so many games late). We don't bash teams in to submission. At our best we were very pragmatic with our field position, doing fuck all in our half (except on turnover).
What helped us was the inherent quality of our backs, and the fact that all our forwards have ball skills so movements don't die with them. Our level of support play was also second to none, guys would be queuing up to score.
Which is why the keys to beating us have been the same for ages. Don't turn the ball over. Don't kick aimlessly.
Where i think we have fallen down is, we are still trying to play this game. But, we are generating far fewer turnovers and our slightly passive linespeed means there are less shit kicks delivered to our back 3.
Why are we getting less turnovers? Other teams are winning collisions, making turnovers very hard, and we don't have breakdown guys of the quality we used to have.
Our overall skills are down meaning we shell maybe one or two more opportunities than we used to.
And our defence has gone from our greatest strength to i think our biggest weakness. Could you see the current side trapping South Africa in their 22 and just keeping them there to win a RWC semi?
And there is your difference.So where is plan B?
Doesn't need to be a big plan B just adjustments to what you outline there. I think the coaches are trying things but haven't nailed either the right plan or the right people so then they search for the person only to find it was the plan that was wrong all along.
The defence is probably an example. To the outside it seems we are trying to deliberately suck runners forward rather than meet them before the advantage line. Trying to create those turnover opportunities that have dried up as other teams have got better. It hasn't worked so we need to change again.
I like what Ireland do against rush D. They take a sevens approach and stay deep then identify if/when the defence has got out of line. The opposition realise that they can't rush without creating gaps and get flat footed, creating opportunities to sit them on their heels.So are we trying to pick players for The AB coaches plan.
Or are they Picking players and trying to form a plan around the players ?.
The latter it seems, maybe Pick players who can implement the coaching staffs plan is where they need to go.I don't think it is as simple as that. eg you can pick a plan and think that the players you have selected will be able to execute it but if it doesn't pan out you may try someone else in a key role or you might adjust the plan.
There is still a big element of picking the best players but IMO the tweaking and experimenting comes around the loose forwards and the back three.
I'll fan the fire and use Akira as an example. They made a plan around him to get go forward ball close in but it didn't really work. Then you have to wonder 'are you using him well or he not the right guy'I agree I think it is more complicated,but some of picking player to plans or not is in the mix somewhere.
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@chris said in All Blacks 2022:
@crucial said in All Blacks 2022:
@chris said in All Blacks 2022:
@crucial said in All Blacks 2022:
@mariner4life said in All Blacks 2022:
IMO the ABs success over the past two decades has been built on
Defense, don't concede more than 20 points
Counter-attack. Ruthlessly exploit turnover and bad kicking to score the 23 points needed to win.We're not a multi-phase structure sort of side, other than to pull teams ragged to open those counter-attack opportunities (why we used to win so many games late). We don't bash teams in to submission. At our best we were very pragmatic with our field position, doing fuck all in our half (except on turnover).
What helped us was the inherent quality of our backs, and the fact that all our forwards have ball skills so movements don't die with them. Our level of support play was also second to none, guys would be queuing up to score.
Which is why the keys to beating us have been the same for ages. Don't turn the ball over. Don't kick aimlessly.
Where i think we have fallen down is, we are still trying to play this game. But, we are generating far fewer turnovers and our slightly passive linespeed means there are less shit kicks delivered to our back 3.
Why are we getting less turnovers? Other teams are winning collisions, making turnovers very hard, and we don't have breakdown guys of the quality we used to have.
Our overall skills are down meaning we shell maybe one or two more opportunities than we used to.
And our defence has gone from our greatest strength to i think our biggest weakness. Could you see the current side trapping South Africa in their 22 and just keeping them there to win a RWC semi?
And there is your difference.So where is plan B?
Doesn't need to be a big plan B just adjustments to what you outline there. I think the coaches are trying things but haven't nailed either the right plan or the right people so then they search for the person only to find it was the plan that was wrong all along.
The defence is probably an example. To the outside it seems we are trying to deliberately suck runners forward rather than meet them before the advantage line. Trying to create those turnover opportunities that have dried up as other teams have got better. It hasn't worked so we need to change again.
I like what Ireland do against rush D. They take a sevens approach and stay deep then identify if/when the defence has got out of line. The opposition realise that they can't rush without creating gaps and get flat footed, creating opportunities to sit them on their heels.So are we trying to pick players for The AB coaches plan.
Or are they Picking players and trying to form a plan around the players ?.
The latter it seems, maybe Pick players who can implement the coaching staffs plan is where they need to go.I don't think it is as simple as that. eg you can pick a plan and think that the players you have selected will be able to execute it but if it doesn't pan out you may try someone else in a key role or you might adjust the plan.
There is still a big element of picking the best players but IMO the tweaking and experimenting comes around the loose forwards and the back three.
I'll fan the fire and use Akira as an example. They made a plan around him to get go forward ball close in but it didn't really work. Then you have to wonder 'are you using him well or he not the right guy'I agree I think it is more complicated,but some of picking player to plans or not is in the mix somewhere.
The plan has to come first then you train players to work the plan. Hopefully you hve selected them based on ability/skillset to do so.
Worst thing to do is base your plan around the player(s).If you are dependent on certian players you can get in a world of trouble if there are injury or form problems.
It's a balance really and sometimes it takes a while to get right as you can only make small adjustments or you can't see the cause/effect. -
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This might not be the right place but
for the most part, they ARE selecting the right players in the squad. There are maybe 30 "elite" players in the country, those all make the squad give or take maybe one or two. We do not have a huge pool of players to call on. With 5 pro teams and zero overseas selection there is a limited number of players we have to play test rugby.
So it's pretty easy to pick the squad. And that's what we've got. So, just maybe, they are picking the plan that works best for the guys we have. A game plan built around 2 reactive instinctive run-first 10s who don't kick well from hand. A plan that doesn't need big ball running tighties. A plan that needs big guys in wide channels. Because that's what we've got.
A separate point.
Some of our (fans) current attitudes are probably warped by that 2005-2015 run, the Richie McCaw dynasty. Just before that we had almost all of our players available for selection, past prime, emerging, and prime. And we had great depth and a good team, that still lost big games (ie one Bledisloe a year, and RWC games). And test rugby then was way less even. England were good for a couple of years, the French good for a couple of performances a year. Australia bloody good. South Africa a mixed bag. Wales and Ireland were plucky underdogs. The Scots sucked then too.
We then had that period of dominance where we won everything on the back of a number of the countries greatest ever players playing at the same time. Depth wasn't overly tested (high profile exceptions obviously aye Beaver?) because guys just had to slot in and role play.
Now? Those greats have retired. Test rugby is way more even. We have a huge number of players overseas, some who left just when they could have helped our first team immensely. And we, as fans, have had to deal with that sudden change with no nice transition. That great team allowed us to ignore the changing landscape. -
@bovidae said in All Blacks 2022:
@crucial Vaa'i at 6 means you need a certain type of no.8, i.e., not Savea.
I remain convinced that looking for a blindside to plug the holes in our loose forwards capability is part of the problem if your starting point is the 8 has to be Savea who should be a super sub.
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@antipodean said in All Blacks 2022:
@bovidae said in All Blacks 2022:
@crucial Vaa'i at 6 means you need a certain type of no.8, i.e., not Savea.
I remain convinced that looking for a blindside to plug the holes in our loose forwards capability is part of the problem if your starting point is the 8 has to be Savea who should be a super sub.
Except he is the best 8 in the country at the moment.
I know he seems more a SuperRugby 8 than a test one but who goes in ahead of him AND is a better player and leader.
That's the quandary.I also get that if he is at 8 we need a six that plays up and down the track more and stops fringe runners in their tracks.
Now tell me who that guy is.
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@crucial said in All Blacks 2022:
@antipodean said in All Blacks 2022:
@bovidae said in All Blacks 2022:
@crucial Vaa'i at 6 means you need a certain type of no.8, i.e., not Savea.
I remain convinced that looking for a blindside to plug the holes in our loose forwards capability is part of the problem if your starting point is the 8 has to be Savea who should be a super sub.
Except he is the best 8 in the country at the moment.
I know he seems more a SuperRugby 8 than a test one but who goes in ahead of him AND is a better player and leader.
That's the quandary.I also get that if he is at 8 we need a six that plays up and down the track more and stops fringe runners in their tracks.
Now tell me who that guy is.
We don’t have one as yet.
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@crucial said in All Blacks 2022:
is a better player
i guess for those of us who don't see AS as a walk up start, this is the point. What actually makes a better player?
Will AS win you turnovers on the ground or through the counter ruck? No
Will AS win you a turnover by stopping a ball runner behind the advantage line with a strong hit? No
Will AS turn slow ball in to fast ball through size and physicality? No
Will AS win you lineouts? NoSo if you are willing to forgo all of that for an admittedly dynamite open field runner and link player, then you essentially need to pick two flankers who do the above for you.
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@crucial said in All Blacks 2022:
@antipodean said in All Blacks 2022:
@bovidae said in All Blacks 2022:
@crucial Vaa'i at 6 means you need a certain type of no.8, i.e., not Savea.
I remain convinced that looking for a blindside to plug the holes in our loose forwards capability is part of the problem if your starting point is the 8 has to be Savea who should be a super sub.
Except he is the best 8 in the country at the moment.
I know he seems more a SuperRugby 8 than a test one but who goes in ahead of him AND is a better player and leader.
That's the quandary.All we need to do is identify a Test 8, or someone with the raw attributes to develop into one. That player doesn't have to be a George Smith, or McCaw.
I also get that if he is at 8 we need a six that plays up and down the track more and stops fringe runners in their tracks.
Now tell me who that guy is.
We're still looking for that player too. But it's no concidence our best rugby is with players like
6 - Jerome Kaino
8 - Kieran Read -
@mariner4life said in All Blacks 2022:
@crucial said in All Blacks 2022:
is a better player
i guess for those of us who don't see AS as a walk up start, this is the point. What actually makes a better player?
Will AS win you turnovers on the ground or through the counter ruck? No
Will AS win you a turnover by stopping a ball runner behind the advantage line with a strong hit? No
Will AS turn slow ball in to fast ball through size and physicality? No
Will AS win you lineouts? NoSo if you are willing to forgo all of that for an admittedly dynamite open field runner and link player, then you essentially need to pick two flankers who do the above for you.
Yep. But because we cant find the six do we throw away the 8? We then end up with "OK" players at 6 and 8 in trade.
BTW you are missing that AS isone of our best at fighting through tackles and staying on his feet. Also very good at playing from the base either to the halfback or making ground.
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@crucial said in All Blacks 2022:
@antipodean said in All Blacks 2022:
@bovidae said in All Blacks 2022:
@crucial Vaa'i at 6 means you need a certain type of no.8, i.e., not Savea.
I remain convinced that looking for a blindside to plug the holes in our loose forwards capability is part of the problem if your starting point is the 8 has to be Savea who should be a super sub.
Except he is the best 8 in the country at the moment.
I know he seems more a SuperRugby 8 than a test one but who goes in ahead of him AND is a better player and leader.
That's the quandary.I also get that if he is at 8 we need a six that plays up and down the track more and stops fringe runners in their tracks.
Now tell me who that guy is.
here's the question though, is there not something to be said for picking the second best...if it made the overall gameplan better
I kind of feel part of how we've ended up where we are is selecting the best people in each position regardless of how they'll work together...which flies in the face of the idea something can be greater than the sum of its parts
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@mariner4life I also think 2016 - 2019 the signs were there but glossed over - when ABs didn't take a dramatic step down in 2016 the assumption was that the AB machine was rolling on and couldn't be stopped.
There was an expectation that in 2016 the ABs would take a step back with so many greats retiring after 2015. However, the Wallabies and Boks were especially poor in 2016 - the Wallabies due to an exodus of experienced players in 2016 and the Boks had an awful new coach in Coetzee. The Irish loss in 2016 was glossed over as taking them lightly / Kaino starting at lock etc.
2017 rolls around and the Lions series draw (feels like a series loss) was glossed over due to the SBW card and the weird ending to test 3.
2018 saw the ABs lose at home to the Boks under new coach Erasmus, lose to Ireland in Dublin and very nearly lose to England at Twickers.
2019 ABs drew with Boks at home and we all know what happed in the RWC.
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@crucial said in All Blacks 2022:
@mariner4life said in All Blacks 2022:
@crucial said in All Blacks 2022:
is a better player
i guess for those of us who don't see AS as a walk up start, this is the point. What actually makes a better player?
Will AS win you turnovers on the ground or through the counter ruck? No
Will AS win you a turnover by stopping a ball runner behind the advantage line with a strong hit? No
Will AS turn slow ball in to fast ball through size and physicality? No
Will AS win you lineouts? NoSo if you are willing to forgo all of that for an admittedly dynamite open field runner and link player, then you essentially need to pick two flankers who do the above for you.
Yep. But because we cant find the six do we throw away the 8? We then end up with "OK" players at 6 and 8 in trade.
BTW you are missing that AS isone of our best at fighting through tackles and staying on his feet. Also very good at playing from the base either to the halfback or making ground.
I'm not as enamored with the AS "yards after contact" as some because i see too many turn in to slow ball situations
Look, he's a bloody good player with some nice strengths, please don't make the mistake of assuming i think he's rubbish with no redeeming features. I only believe those strengths would be better shown in the last 20-25 minutes of a test (or 80 if we are playing Australia)..
Do agree with your point though.
This was all far more fun when we had Richie, Read and Kaino at the same time.
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@kiwiwomble said in All Blacks 2022:
@crucial said in All Blacks 2022:
@antipodean said in All Blacks 2022:
@bovidae said in All Blacks 2022:
@crucial Vaa'i at 6 means you need a certain type of no.8, i.e., not Savea.
I remain convinced that looking for a blindside to plug the holes in our loose forwards capability is part of the problem if your starting point is the 8 has to be Savea who should be a super sub.
Except he is the best 8 in the country at the moment.
I know he seems more a SuperRugby 8 than a test one but who goes in ahead of him AND is a better player and leader.
That's the quandary.I also get that if he is at 8 we need a six that plays up and down the track more and stops fringe runners in their tracks.
Now tell me who that guy is.
here's the question though, is there not something to be said for picking the second best...if it made the overall gameplan better
I kind of feel part of how we've ended up where we are is selecting the best people in each position regardless of how they'll work together...which flies in the face of the idea something can be greater than the sum of its parts
Yeah, but that's my point. Who are those players?
Punters keep complaining that the coaches haven't got the back three right yet no one can say who it should be. The coaches/selectors probably fret about it too but they have to put a team out and not just talk.
TBF to them they have tried quite a number of players and combinations. Guys who put their hands up at other levels. They either show that they aren't the answer, get injured or both.Jacobsen could well be Reado MKII, but as we know he needs the right 6.
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@crucial i think the coaches might be a little unrealistic with their expectations
say, they want the yards the AS brings...but more ball security, well one one way to do that is not to get quite as many yards as AS...but therefore stay closer to your support,
getting a 10m break/ half break doesn't mean much if our attack becomes disjointed or a turn over....where as others that have tried might get 5-6m in the same situation....but secure the ball...but then get critiqued for not getting as many yards
that is a very specific hypothetical situation based mainly on my vibe watching the loosies play
theres a saying i'll get wrong, something like "less haste mean more speed"
edit: back to front but same idea
more haste, less speed proverb Acting too quickly and without due diligence, focus, and attention to detail will result in avoidable mistakes and thus require even more time to complete the task satisfactorily.dont expect to open them up with every touch of the ball, be more deliberate...in other words build pressure rather than trying to force it
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@mariner4life said in All Blacks 2022:
@crucial said in All Blacks 2022:
is a better player
i guess for those of us who don't see AS as a walk up start, this is the point. What actually makes a better player?
Will AS win you turnovers on the ground or through the counter ruck? No
In Ardie's defence, winning breakdown turnovers is still a strength of his, often on his own goal line. The caveat is that he needs to be at the ruck to have a chance. Sounds like a no.7 doesn't it?
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@kiwiwomble said in All Blacks 2022:
@crucial i think the coaches might be a little unrealistic with their expectations
say, they want the yards the AS brings...but more ball security, well one one way to do that is not to get quite as many yards as AS...but therefore stay closer to your support,
getting a 10m break/ half break doesn't mean much if our attack becomes disjointed or a turn over....where as others that have tried might get 5-6m in the same situation....but secure the ball...but then get critiqued for not getting as many yards
that is a very specific hypothetical situation based mainly on my vibe watching the loosies play
theres a saying i'll get wrong, something like "less haste mean more speed"
edit: back to front but same idea
more haste, less speed proverb Acting too quickly and without due diligence, focus, and attention to detail will result in avoidable mistakes and thus require even more time to complete the task satisfactorily.dont expect to open them up with every touch of the ball, be more deliberate...in other words build pressure rather than trying to force it
I think you are overthinking things.
Ardie isn't there simply because they want him to make metres. He's there because he is currently the best option.
Plus if he can make metres off the back of the scrum that gets you well behind their pack which is a great weapon to have.
