All Blacks 2022

[Chris]

@crucial said in All Blacks 2022:

@antipodean said in All Blacks 2022:

@bovidae said in All Blacks 2022:

@crucial Vaa'i at 6 means you need a certain type of no.8, i.e., not Savea.

I remain convinced that looking for a blindside to plug the holes in our loose forwards capability is part of the problem if your starting point is the 8 has to be Savea who should be a super sub.

Except he is the best 8 in the country at the moment.
I know he seems more a SuperRugby 8 than a test one but who goes in ahead of him AND is a better player and leader.
That's the quandary.

I also get that if he is at 8 we need a six that plays up and down the track more and stops fringe runners in their tracks.

Now tell me who that guy is.

We don’t have one as yet.

[mariner4life]

@crucial said in All Blacks 2022:

is a better player

i guess for those of us who don't see AS as a walk up start, this is the point. What actually makes a better player?

Will AS win you turnovers on the ground or through the counter ruck? No
Will AS win you a turnover by stopping a ball runner behind the advantage line with a strong hit? No
Will AS turn slow ball in to fast ball through size and physicality? No
Will AS win you lineouts? No

So if you are willing to forgo all of that for an admittedly dynamite open field runner and link player, then you essentially need to pick two flankers who do the above for you.

[antipodean]

@crucial said in All Blacks 2022:

@antipodean said in All Blacks 2022:

@bovidae said in All Blacks 2022:

@crucial Vaa'i at 6 means you need a certain type of no.8, i.e., not Savea.

I remain convinced that looking for a blindside to plug the holes in our loose forwards capability is part of the problem if your starting point is the 8 has to be Savea who should be a super sub.

Except he is the best 8 in the country at the moment.
I know he seems more a SuperRugby 8 than a test one but who goes in ahead of him AND is a better player and leader.
That's the quandary.

All we need to do is identify a Test 8, or someone with the raw attributes to develop into one. That player doesn't have to be a George Smith, or McCaw.

I also get that if he is at 8 we need a six that plays up and down the track more and stops fringe runners in their tracks.

Now tell me who that guy is.

We're still looking for that player too. But it's no concidence our best rugby is with players like

6 - Jerome Kaino
8 - Kieran Read

[Crucial]

@mariner4life said in All Blacks 2022:

@crucial said in All Blacks 2022:

is a better player

i guess for those of us who don't see AS as a walk up start, this is the point. What actually makes a better player?

Will AS win you turnovers on the ground or through the counter ruck? No
Will AS win you a turnover by stopping a ball runner behind the advantage line with a strong hit? No
Will AS turn slow ball in to fast ball through size and physicality? No
Will AS win you lineouts? No

So if you are willing to forgo all of that for an admittedly dynamite open field runner and link player, then you essentially need to pick two flankers who do the above for you.

Yep. But because we cant find the six do we throw away the 8? We then end up with "OK" players at 6 and 8 in trade.

BTW you are missing that AS isone of our best at fighting through tackles and staying on his feet. Also very good at playing from the base either to the halfback or making ground.

[Kiwiwomble]

@crucial said in All Blacks 2022:

@antipodean said in All Blacks 2022:

@bovidae said in All Blacks 2022:

@crucial Vaa'i at 6 means you need a certain type of no.8, i.e., not Savea.

I remain convinced that looking for a blindside to plug the holes in our loose forwards capability is part of the problem if your starting point is the 8 has to be Savea who should be a super sub.

Except he is the best 8 in the country at the moment.
I know he seems more a SuperRugby 8 than a test one but who goes in ahead of him AND is a better player and leader.
That's the quandary.

I also get that if he is at 8 we need a six that plays up and down the track more and stops fringe runners in their tracks.

Now tell me who that guy is.

here's the question though, is there not something to be said for picking the second best...if it made the overall gameplan better

I kind of feel part of how we've ended up where we are is selecting the best people in each position regardless of how they'll work together...which flies in the face of the idea something can be greater than the sum of its parts

[KiwiMurph]

@mariner4life I also think 2016 - 2019 the signs were there but glossed over - when ABs didn't take a dramatic step down in 2016 the assumption was that the AB machine was rolling on and couldn't be stopped.

There was an expectation that in 2016 the ABs would take a step back with so many greats retiring after 2015. However, the Wallabies and Boks were especially poor in 2016 - the Wallabies due to an exodus of experienced players in 2016 and the Boks had an awful new coach in Coetzee. The Irish loss in 2016 was glossed over as taking them lightly / Kaino starting at lock etc.

2017 rolls around and the Lions series draw (feels like a series loss) was glossed over due to the SBW card and the weird ending to test 3.

2018 saw the ABs lose at home to the Boks under new coach Erasmus, lose to Ireland in Dublin and very nearly lose to England at Twickers.

2019 ABs drew with Boks at home and we all know what happed in the RWC.

[mariner4life]

@crucial said in All Blacks 2022:

@mariner4life said in All Blacks 2022:

@crucial said in All Blacks 2022:

is a better player

i guess for those of us who don't see AS as a walk up start, this is the point. What actually makes a better player?

Will AS win you turnovers on the ground or through the counter ruck? No
Will AS win you a turnover by stopping a ball runner behind the advantage line with a strong hit? No
Will AS turn slow ball in to fast ball through size and physicality? No
Will AS win you lineouts? No

So if you are willing to forgo all of that for an admittedly dynamite open field runner and link player, then you essentially need to pick two flankers who do the above for you.

Yep. But because we cant find the six do we throw away the 8? We then end up with "OK" players at 6 and 8 in trade.

BTW you are missing that AS isone of our best at fighting through tackles and staying on his feet. Also very good at playing from the base either to the halfback or making ground.

I'm not as enamored with the AS "yards after contact" as some because i see too many turn in to slow ball situations

Look, he's a bloody good player with some nice strengths, please don't make the mistake of assuming i think he's rubbish with no redeeming features. I only believe those strengths would be better shown in the last 20-25 minutes of a test (or 80 if we are playing Australia)..

Do agree with your point though.

This was all far more fun when we had Richie, Read and Kaino at the same time.

[Crucial]

@kiwiwomble said in All Blacks 2022:

@crucial said in All Blacks 2022:

@antipodean said in All Blacks 2022:

@bovidae said in All Blacks 2022:

@crucial Vaa'i at 6 means you need a certain type of no.8, i.e., not Savea.

I remain convinced that looking for a blindside to plug the holes in our loose forwards capability is part of the problem if your starting point is the 8 has to be Savea who should be a super sub.

Except he is the best 8 in the country at the moment.
I know he seems more a SuperRugby 8 than a test one but who goes in ahead of him AND is a better player and leader.
That's the quandary.

I also get that if he is at 8 we need a six that plays up and down the track more and stops fringe runners in their tracks.

Now tell me who that guy is.

here's the question though, is there not something to be said for picking the second best...if it made the overall gameplan better

I kind of feel part of how we've ended up where we are is selecting the best people in each position regardless of how they'll work together...which flies in the face of the idea something can be greater than the sum of its parts

Yeah, but that's my point. Who are those players?
Punters keep complaining that the coaches haven't got the back three right yet no one can say who it should be. The coaches/selectors probably fret about it too but they have to put a team out and not just talk.
TBF to them they have tried quite a number of players and combinations. Guys who put their hands up at other levels. They either show that they aren't the answer, get injured or both.

Jacobsen could well be Reado MKII, but as we know he needs the right 6.

[Kiwiwomble]

@crucial i think the coaches might be a little unrealistic with their expectations

say, they want the yards the AS brings...but more ball security, well one one way to do that is not to get quite as many yards as AS...but therefore stay closer to your support,

getting a 10m break/ half break doesn't mean much if our attack becomes disjointed or a turn over....where as others that have tried might get 5-6m in the same situation....but secure the ball...but then get critiqued for not getting as many yards

that is a very specific hypothetical situation based mainly on my vibe watching the loosies play

theres a saying i'll get wrong, something like "less haste mean more speed"

edit: back to front but same idea

more haste, less speed
proverb Acting too quickly and without due diligence, focus, and attention to detail will result in avoidable mistakes and thus require even more time to complete the task satisfactorily.

dont expect to open them up with every touch of the ball, be more deliberate...in other words build pressure rather than trying to force it

[Bovidae]

@mariner4life said in All Blacks 2022:

@crucial said in All Blacks 2022:

is a better player

i guess for those of us who don't see AS as a walk up start, this is the point. What actually makes a better player?

Will AS win you turnovers on the ground or through the counter ruck? No

In Ardie's defence, winning breakdown turnovers is still a strength of his, often on his own goal line. The caveat is that he needs to be at the ruck to have a chance. Sounds like a no.7 doesn't it?

[Crucial]

@kiwiwomble said in All Blacks 2022:

@crucial i think the coaches might be a little unrealistic with their expectations

say, they want the yards the AS brings...but more ball security, well one one way to do that is not to get quite as many yards as AS...but therefore stay closer to your support,

getting a 10m break/ half break doesn't mean much if our attack becomes disjointed or a turn over....where as others that have tried might get 5-6m in the same situation....but secure the ball...but then get critiqued for not getting as many yards

that is a very specific hypothetical situation based mainly on my vibe watching the loosies play

theres a saying i'll get wrong, something like "less haste mean more speed"

edit: back to front but same idea

more haste, less speed
proverb Acting too quickly and without due diligence, focus, and attention to detail will result in avoidable mistakes and thus require even more time to complete the task satisfactorily.

dont expect to open them up with every touch of the ball, be more deliberate...in other words build pressure rather than trying to force it

I think you are overthinking things.
Ardie isn't there simply because they want him to make metres. He's there because he is currently the best option.
Plus if he can make metres off the back of the scrum that gets you well behind their pack which is a great weapon to have.

[Kiwiwomble]

@crucial only great if you secure the ball afterwards...which we're not great at, or at least not as great as we use to be

I'm just saying we shouldn't look at things in isolation

[Dan54]

@crucial said in All Blacks 2022:

@chris said in All Blacks 2022:

@crucial said in All Blacks 2022:

@chris said in All Blacks 2022:

@crucial said in All Blacks 2022:

@mariner4life said in All Blacks 2022:

IMO the ABs success over the past two decades has been built on

Defense, don't concede more than 20 points
Counter-attack. Ruthlessly exploit turnover and bad kicking to score the 23 points needed to win.

We're not a multi-phase structure sort of side, other than to pull teams ragged to open those counter-attack opportunities (why we used to win so many games late). We don't bash teams in to submission. At our best we were very pragmatic with our field position, doing fuck all in our half (except on turnover).

What helped us was the inherent quality of our backs, and the fact that all our forwards have ball skills so movements don't die with them. Our level of support play was also second to none, guys would be queuing up to score.

Which is why the keys to beating us have been the same for ages. Don't turn the ball over. Don't kick aimlessly.

Where i think we have fallen down is, we are still trying to play this game. But, we are generating far fewer turnovers and our slightly passive linespeed means there are less shit kicks delivered to our back 3.
Why are we getting less turnovers? Other teams are winning collisions, making turnovers very hard, and we don't have breakdown guys of the quality we used to have.
Our overall skills are down meaning we shell maybe one or two more opportunities than we used to.
And our defence has gone from our greatest strength to i think our biggest weakness. Could you see the current side trapping South Africa in their 22 and just keeping them there to win a RWC semi?
And there is your difference.

So where is plan B?

Doesn't need to be a big plan B just adjustments to what you outline there. I think the coaches are trying things but haven't nailed either the right plan or the right people so then they search for the person only to find it was the plan that was wrong all along.
The defence is probably an example. To the outside it seems we are trying to deliberately suck runners forward rather than meet them before the advantage line. Trying to create those turnover opportunities that have dried up as other teams have got better. It hasn't worked so we need to change again.
I like what Ireland do against rush D. They take a sevens approach and stay deep then identify if/when the defence has got out of line. The opposition realise that they can't rush without creating gaps and get flat footed, creating opportunities to sit them on their heels.

So are we trying to pick players for The AB coaches plan.
Or are they Picking players and trying to form a plan around the players ?.
The latter it seems, maybe Pick players who can implement the coaching staffs plan is where they need to go.

I don't think it is as simple as that. eg you can pick a plan and think that the players you have selected will be able to execute it but if it doesn't pan out you may try someone else in a key role or you might adjust the plan.
There is still a big element of picking the best players but IMO the tweaking and experimenting comes around the loose forwards and the back three.
I'll fan the fire and use Akira as an example. They made a plan around him to get go forward ball close in but it didn't really work. Then you have to wonder 'are you using him well or he not the right guy'

I agree I think it is more complicated,but some of picking player to plans or not is in the mix somewhere.

The plan has to come first then you train players to work the plan. Hopefully you hve selected them based on ability/skillset to do so.
Worst thing to do is base your plan around the player(s).If you are dependent on certian players you can get in a world of trouble if there are injury or form problems.
It's a balance really and sometimes it takes a while to get right as you can only make small adjustments or you can't see the cause/effect.

Yep but MacMillan saying it interesting because he seeing Vaa'i as a lock who can also play 6. I think he still a lock, and could be be a bloody top Itoje style one at that. I still think he will be close to starting lock in ABs with either Jacobson or Frizell at 6. After reading Hansen's book I suspect selctors maybe a little shy of having to much reliance on BR and SW at WC time.

[get stuffed]

@dan54 said in All Blacks 2022:

@nzbloke said in All Blacks 2022:

@dan54 said in All Blacks 2022:

@old-samurai-jack said in All Blacks 2022:

@dan54 Yeah, I understand but the fact of the matter is, and with no slight on the opposition, the ABs played poorly.

They played exactly as well as the opposition let them play. Ireland didn't seem to play that well against French in 6Ns, that was because the French didn't let them. It is the way in our game often I think. I have seen good teams play ABs over the years and look poor, just because ABs have made them look that way. Same with a lot of teams, when they get beaten up in frowards they will struggle to look good. And so I give credit to the team that plays that well. I understand that we not used to seeing the ABs beaten, but it has unfortunately been a trait of a lot of our supporters the first thing we do in a loss we attck the ABs , and don't give credit to other team. It is not just AB supporters, a good number of supporters do it, just this is something that Kieran Crowley pointed out.

That's a part of it, but the main reason we got done was because our forwards performed poorly.

Good teams over the years have looked poor against the ABs at times because of the fast paced game we played, due to our brilliant backs & athletic forwards that had the pace to link up with our backs to keep the momentum going... the forwards played a big part in that by playing with real aggression & cleaning out well at the breakdown.
The breakdown area is vital, it's by far the most contested part of the game, yet we consistently do a poor job there.

Crowley said the ABs wouldn't be in the top 2 or 3 favourites for the RWC, that is probably a fair comment going by the way we played last season... but for him to say NZ supporters are arrogant is a ludicrous comment, ABs have a better win/loss record than any other team & have set the benchmark for yonks, so of course NZ supporters expect them to play to a very high standard in all test matches.

Yep I agree with what you say about AB supporters because of their success, but if you listened he actually said a lot couldn't name more than 3-4 of French/Irish team etc. I can kind of understand where he coming from, a hell of a lot of so called AB supporters are winners supporters and don't actually really watch a lot of the game, so think that everyone else should always be weaker than us. He's not talking about the proper rugby men so much, but by geez we have some so called AB supporters that know bugger all about game. I noticed it when I was living in Aus more than any other time, you talk to a kiwi in his AB jersey etc, and ask about a test match that had taken place not involving the ABs, and often had no idea of what had happened etc.. We get a lot of them on internet forums that learn all their rugby from reading forums and seeing the odd game on tv, but have no real idea of the game.

To be fair though as NZers we tend to watch our own comps & players more than the overseas stuff, which is understandable, other countries would be doing the same thing with their players.

Yeah, very good point about those so called supporters, they basically go by the reputation of the ABs, but know stuff all about the game... can see the ones that know their rugby properly by the way they analyse it through things like strengths & weaknesses of players in detail, how good they're under pressure, adapting tactics throughout a match when needed etc.

[taniwharugby]

@mariner4life said in All Blacks 2022:

I'm not as enamored with the AS "yards after contact" as some because i see too many turn in to slow ball situations

TBF I think the other forwards need to take some heat there too, often he does gain ground or fights on through only to end up isolated, like you say, then if we do retain the ball, it is slow, but also exposes him to being turned over.

[junior]

@mariner4life said in All Blacks 2022:

IMO the ABs success over the past two decades has been built on

Defense, don't concede more than 20 points
Counter-attack. Ruthlessly exploit turnover and bad kicking to score the 23 points needed to win.

We're not a multi-phase structure sort of side, other than to pull teams ragged to open those counter-attack opportunities (why we used to win so many games late). We don't bash teams in to submission. At our best we were very pragmatic with our field position, doing fuck all in our half (except on turnover).

What helped us was the inherent quality of our backs, and the fact that all our forwards have ball skills so movements don't die with them. Our level of support play was also second to none, guys would be queuing up to score.

Which is why the keys to beating us have been the same for ages. Don't turn the ball over. Don't kick aimlessly.

Where i think we have fallen down is, we are still trying to play this game. But, we are generating far fewer turnovers and our slightly passive linespeed means there are less shit kicks delivered to our back 3.
Why are we getting less turnovers? Other teams are winning collisions, making turnovers very hard, and we don't have breakdown guys of the quality we used to have.
Our overall skills are down meaning we shell maybe one or two more opportunities than we used to.
And our defence has gone from our greatest strength to i think our biggest weakness. Could you see the current side trapping South Africa in their 22 and just keeping them there to win a RWC semi?
And there is your difference.

So where is plan B?

This word "pragmatism" perfectly sums up what we were when at our best and what appears to be missing now.

It's easy to forget when looking at what happened before and after, but we won our first RWC in 24 years playing 10 man, box-kicking, play for territory and collect points in 3s, rugby. I'm not advocating for us to play that style, but merely using it to demonstrate (a) a pragmatic approach that seems to have been abandoned, and (b) that we can actually be successful when playing a style that is not "natural" to us.

[junior]

@crucial said in All Blacks 2022:

@antipodean said in All Blacks 2022:

@bovidae said in All Blacks 2022:

@crucial Vaa'i at 6 means you need a certain type of no.8, i.e., not Savea.

I remain convinced that looking for a blindside to plug the holes in our loose forwards capability is part of the problem if your starting point is the 8 has to be Savea who should be a super sub.

Except he is the best 8 in the country at the moment.
I know he seems more a SuperRugby 8 than a test one but who goes in ahead of him AND is a better player and leader.
That's the quandary.

I also get that if he is at 8 we need a six that plays up and down the track more and stops fringe runners in their tracks.

Now tell me who that guy is.

If Savea is the answer to the leadership question, that's a real problem

[Crucial]

@junior said in All Blacks 2022:

@crucial said in All Blacks 2022:

@antipodean said in All Blacks 2022:

@bovidae said in All Blacks 2022:

@crucial Vaa'i at 6 means you need a certain type of no.8, i.e., not Savea.

I remain convinced that looking for a blindside to plug the holes in our loose forwards capability is part of the problem if your starting point is the 8 has to be Savea who should be a super sub.

Except he is the best 8 in the country at the moment.
I know he seems more a SuperRugby 8 than a test one but who goes in ahead of him AND is a better player and leader.
That's the quandary.

I also get that if he is at 8 we need a six that plays up and down the track more and stops fringe runners in their tracks.

Now tell me who that guy is.

If Savea is the answer to the leadership question, that's a real problem

Where did you get that from?
He’s one of the team’s leaders and has great support from the players around him.
I’m not saying he should be full time captain or anything just that if we are going to bring young players in we need to balance that with leadership.

[Crucial]

Regarding DMac (and the speculation back in the thread) this was in Stuff today...

**The Chiefs are confident Damian McKenzie will be back for 2023.

McKenzie, currently playing in Japan, has yet to recommit to NZ Rugby but Chiefs chief executive Michael Collins indicated the All Black won't be lost to New Zealand ahead of the World Cup in France.

Asked if McKenzie would return to the Chiefs, Collins stated: "Yes, 100 percent.''

This should end speculation that fullback/No 10 McKenzie could be tempted to stay offshore. "We know he hasn't quite inked that deal, but all the comms we have had with him have all been really positive,'' Collins added.

"So, yes, I would be expecting him back here next year, for sure.''**

I'm pretty sure that puts him in a similar spot to TJP. Chiefs don't expect to see him until next season so any AB call up would be dependant on him re-signing and playing ITM Cup.

[Dan54]

@junior said in All Blacks 2022:

@crucial said in All Blacks 2022:

@antipodean said in All Blacks 2022:

@bovidae said in All Blacks 2022:

@crucial Vaa'i at 6 means you need a certain type of no.8, i.e., not Savea.

I remain convinced that looking for a blindside to plug the holes in our loose forwards capability is part of the problem if your starting point is the 8 has to be Savea who should be a super sub.

Except he is the best 8 in the country at the moment.
I know he seems more a SuperRugby 8 than a test one but who goes in ahead of him AND is a better player and leader.
That's the quandary.

I also get that if he is at 8 we need a six that plays up and down the track more and stops fringe runners in their tracks.

Now tell me who that guy is.

If Savea is the answer to the leadership question, that's a real problem

I suspect you don't realise he is llready part of leadership group. I didn't realise there was a leadershio question, Sam Cane is captain , and have seen nothing to indicate he not holding the job.