Cricket 2021: NZ in England and WTC Final
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@crazy-horse said in Cricket 2021: NZ in England and WTC Final:
The Indians have a handy seam attack nowadays.
This is paramount. You don't beat Australia at home using 5 or 6 quicks without being bloody good. The biggest improvement in Indian cricket and well capable of getting 20 wickets on a seamer.
This final has EVERYTHING.
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I agree with the 6 batsmen 4 seamers approach. I don't think either side is going to pile on 600/4 so attrition shouldn't really come into it. We will want to keep the pressure on their whole innings with quality seam bowling which is our strength, and right now we have 4 extremely high quality seamers.
I'd slot Young at 6 to bat with BJ at 7, that gives us depth in the order which may help push us towards 400 if things go pretty well, which would be a very competitive total in a final.
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@no-quarter said in Cricket 2021: NZ in England and WTC Final:
I agree with the 6 batsmen 4 seamers approach. I don't think either side is going to pile on 600/4 so attrition shouldn't really come into it. We will want to keep the pressure on their whole innings with quality seam bowling which is our strength, and right now we have 4 extremely high quality seamers.
I'd slot Young at 6 to bat with BJ at 7, that gives us depth in the order which may help push us towards 400 if things go pretty well, which would be a very competitive total in a final.
I'm favouring that way too, but mostly because of the weather helping bowling loads. No way are the players going to do 6 continuous hours on the field each day. I'm a bit suss on not having a 5th bowler ( bowler workloads are different from the windies era) and to me that's akin to the 6/2 split of rugby substitutes - it can definitely work but you can also be unnecessarily exposed.
I've dialled up my " meh" factor for the 11th player. With the calibre of the other 10, it won't be his fault if we lose.
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@siam said in Cricket 2021: NZ in England and WTC Final:
@no-quarter said in Cricket 2021: NZ in England and WTC Final:
I agree with the 6 batsmen 4 seamers approach. I don't think either side is going to pile on 600/4 so attrition shouldn't really come into it. We will want to keep the pressure on their whole innings with quality seam bowling which is our strength, and right now we have 4 extremely high quality seamers.
I'd slot Young at 6 to bat with BJ at 7, that gives us depth in the order which may help push us towards 400 if things go pretty well, which would be a very competitive total in a final.
I'm favouring that way too, but mostly because of the weather helping bowling loads. No way are the players going to do 6 continuous hours on the field each day. I'm a bit suss on not having a 5th bowler ( bowler workloads are different from the windies era) and to me that's akin to the 6/2 split of rugby substitutes - it can definitely work but you can also be unnecessarily exposed.
I've dialled up my " meh" factor for the 11th player. With the calibre of the other 10, it won't be his fault if we lose.
The bowling load isn't a huge deal because of the sixth day - if it rains they will get a break and if it doesn't we can slow the over rate with impunity (see England at Lords') for a one off test - if Kane is suspended for the first Bangladesh test so be it.
From a bowling perspective I agree with you, but batting wise if Jamieson bats 7 and Southee 8 (as is the case with most sides including Patel) - then you do run a real risk of stranding a Williamson or Taylor in full stride earlier than usual and will rue not having another batting option. Both Young and Blundell would at least be a trusted partner to rotate the strike etc and let them keep playing their natural game. I know CdG and Mitchell have had good returns at test level at times too - butthey always seem to go with the momentum of the game and struggle against top tier bowling.
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Weather for Southampton for Friday, Saturday and Sunday looking dodgy.
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@rotated said in Cricket 2021: NZ in England and WTC Final:
The bowling load isn't a huge deal because of the sixth day - if it rains they will get a break and if it doesn't we can slow the over rate with impunity (see England at Lords') for a one off test - if Kane is suspended for the first Bangladesh test so be it.
oh, this would be the most cynical of cricketing efforts. Slow to 12 overs per hour, let the bowlers have a rest, push into a sixth day if needed. Then if anyone complains just lead with
'like boundary countbacks, it's in the rules'
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It’s certainly been pretty hot over the last week in England and this continues until Thursday.
As we have all probably heard, tests in Southampton have been seam friendly recently with spinners not having anywhere the same success.
My big concern was Southampton being a bit drier and more spin friendly.
We can be very confident going into the final, great preparation and most players have had some success over the last 2 tests. I hope that our experiences in the last 2 finals we have played have meant that we now understand what is required to win a final and have the hunger to do so.
India will be very tough opposition though and are a very strong side. I hope our lead up in England will give us an edge that will ultimately prove to be enough.
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My biggest concern is they will deviate from what has worked the last 6 months, the 4 seamer attack.
Ajax bowled well , bloody well but surely the Indian batsmen face better in the nets? They play spin all the time, and quality wise for greater then what we can provide.
Picking Satnav will be incredibly disappointing, CDG i could live with though it feels hes been away from the game too long.We miss having a top order batsmen who can be relied on to bowl and pick up the odd wicket, the likes of a Astle or McMillan.
Someone who could be relied on to break a partnership. -
@virgil said in Cricket 2021: NZ in England and WTC Final:
My biggest concern is they will deviate from what has worked the last 6 months, the 4 seamer attack.
Ajax bowled well , bloody well but surely the Indian batsmen face better in the nets? They play spin all the time, and quality wise for greater then what we can provide.
Picking Satnav will be incredibly disappointing, CDG i could live with though it feels hes been away from the game too long.We miss having a top order batsmen who can be relied on to bowl and pick up the odd wicket, the likes of a Astle or McMillan.
Someone who could be relied on to break a partnership.While this is likely to be true it doesn't mean that those net bowlers don't challenge them and force errors. After all our bats face our pace bowling in practice and still get out to good pace bowlers from other teams.
The option of a spinner is two-fold. One is for tactical use to get through some cheap overs or slow scoring (if the pitch offers a little uncertainty in turn). The other is that IF the match goes to the last day AND has dried out AND we are bowling last we can kill off a chase.
I am starting to come around to the thinking that we can add a bat and use Jamieson as the 'allrounder' although I still think it would be good to have a fifth bowler to fill in some gaps, make the batsmen change attitude, help with end changes/rotations etc. Whether that is a spinner or CDG/Mitchell depends on pitch and toss IMO. If the spin option isn't realistic then I am wondering if Mitchell is the better option? He seems better equipped to hold an end while our last bat scores. -
@virgil said in Cricket 2021: NZ in England and WTC Final:
Ajax bowled well , bloody well but surely the Indian batsmen face better in the nets? They play spin all the time, and quality wise for greater then what we can provide.
not bad for a war rocket
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@nzzp said in Cricket 2021: NZ in England and WTC Final:
@virgil said in Cricket 2021: NZ in England and WTC Final:
Ajax bowled well , bloody well but surely the Indian batsmen face better in the nets? They play spin all the time, and quality wise for greater then what we can provide.
not bad for a war rocket
That’s pretty Flash
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We either trust our top and middle order or we don't. We shouldn't expect more around 40-50 runs from a 5 bowler tail and nor should we.
In a one off test like the WTC final, I'd go all in on this:
Latham
Conway
Kane
Rosco
Nicholls
Watling
Jamieson
Southee
Wagner
Ajaz
BoultSouthee/Wags batting at 8/9 offers more upside in the bowling than downside in the batting. If we are relyiung on our tail to take on the load of getting sufficient runs, we're going down the English route of no self-belief.
With an opening attack of Boult and Southee, followed by Wags and Kylo, with Ajaz able to take wickets (unlike Santnav) we at least have a 5 pronged bowling attack. KJ offers way more than CdG/Mitchell in terms of bowling and TBH, if we're expecting more than 30-40 runs from Numbers 7 and 8, we shouldn't be in the game.
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@synicbast said in Cricket 2021: NZ in England and WTC Final:
We either trust our top and middle order or we don't. We shouldn't expect more around 40-50 runs from a 5 bowler tail and nor should we.
In a one off test like the WTC final, I'd go all in on this:
Latham
Conway
Kane
Rosco
Nicholls
Watling
Jamieson
Southee
Wagner
Ajaz
BoultSouthee/Wags batting at 8/9 offers more upside in the bowling than downside in the batting. If we are relyiung on our tail to take on the load of getting sufficient runs, we're going down the English route of no self-belief.
With an opening attack of Boult and Southee, followed by Wags and Kylo, with Ajaz able to take wickets (unlike Santnav) we at least have a 5 pronged bowling attack. KJ offers way more than CdG/Mitchell in terms of bowling and TBH, if we're expecting more than 30-40 runs from Numbers 7 and 8, we shouldn't be in the game.
I don't think it is an expectation of runs from the tail itself, more having the tools in place to maximise the runs from the top order. The difference in having confidence to continue batting as if you had a fellow bat at the other end rather than possibly running out of partners and protecting your wicket.
That is why the concept and position of allrounder exists. It is that middle ground option of an OK bolwler and OK bat. If you have a good bowler that can also hold a bat with confidence then great. Use them as the 'last hold'. Then you decide whether you will get more value from extending the batting (how strong is the opposition batting?) or giving yourself a stronger chance of taking 20 wickets.
I guess that the only thing holding me back from endorsing the balance you suggest is the prospect of them taking in Satnav instead of Patel. -
yeah my selection is totally predicated on not having Santnav anywhere near the test side except in an absolute emergency - as a bowler he brings absolutely nothing to the table compared to Ajaz - he takes longer to get through an over; bowls no balls (capital crime for a slow bowler); and offers about as much threat to a batter as a wet dish rag.
CdG has a nice strike rate but doesn't actually offer that many runs - plus he seems to carry significant niggling injuries into games. I'd rather have Kylo asked to offer more with the bat and given the responsibility of being the all rounder which is where I think he may end up being more than a bowler who bats a bit in the long term.
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Sanjay Manjrekar is picking India will select an extra batsmen and only 4 specialist bowlers.
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@bovidae said in Cricket 2021: NZ in England and WTC Final:
Sanjay Manjrekar is picking India will select an extra batsmen and only 4 specialist bowlers.
That means only one of Ashwin and Jadeja - I'll take that every day of the week - Ashwin is lethal against Left handers and with the way Pacers have worked out how to bowlaround the wicket these days against lefties, I'm p[erfectly fine with reducing the threat level
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I have a feeling Santners career would have ended if he hadn’t got that hundred.
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@synicbast said in Cricket 2021: NZ in England and WTC Final:
yeah my selection is totally predicated on not having Santnav anywhere near the test side except in an absolute emergency - as a bowler he brings absolutely nothing to the table compared to Ajaz - he takes longer to get through an over; bowls no balls (capital crime for a slow bowler); and offers about as much threat to a batter as a wet dish rag.
CdG has a nice strike rate but doesn't actually offer that many runs - plus he seems to carry significant niggling injuries into games. I'd rather have Kylo asked to offer more with the bat and given the responsibility of being the all rounder which is where I think he may end up being more than a bowler who bats a bit in the long term.
I’d be fine if he continued bowling as he has and the batting is hit or miss. I think the “All Rounder” part of his game is possibly extra pressure, do we really want him to become another James Franklin who’s batting improved but his promising bowling turned to shit ?
Boult, Southee and Wagner may well all retire about the same time, it’s imperative the big guy remains a threat with the ball.
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@synicbast said in Cricket 2021: NZ in England and WTC Final:
@bovidae said in Cricket 2021: NZ in England and WTC Final:
Sanjay Manjrekar is picking India will select an extra batsmen and only 4 specialist bowlers.
That means only one of Ashwin and Jadeja - I'll take that every day of the week - Ashwin is lethal against Left handers and with the way Pacers have worked out how to bowlaround the wicket these days against lefties, I'm p[erfectly fine with reducing the threat level
their plan will be pretty simple really, bat once score a shit ton of runs and hope we implode.
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@virgil said in Cricket 2021: NZ in England and WTC Final:
My biggest concern is they will deviate from what has worked the last 6 months, the 4 seamer attack.
Ajax bowled well , bloody well but surely the Indian batsmen face better in the nets? They play spin all the time, and quality wise for greater then what we can provide.
Picking Satnav will be incredibly disappointing, CDG i could live with though it feels hes been away from the game too long.We miss having a top order batsmen who can be relied on to bowl and pick up the odd wicket, the likes of a Astle or McMillan.
Someone who could be relied on to break a partnership.Throw Styris in there too as that type of player, I remember all three taking crucial wickets once in a blue moon which helped immensely. They were all handy.
It’s a bit of a shame we don’t appear to have anyone like that in the top order but I’ll take the batting records of our current lot over any of those guys any day that ends with a Y.
What a bugger Jesse Ryder had issues, I’d have picked him for a batting average in the 40s and his bowling was possibly better than all three of them.
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I want them to bolster the batting with Daryl Mitchell and punt that swing will be vastly more important than spin. That also enhances our close catching of edges from the swinging ball and a Wagner bounce barrage.
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Interestingly India do not have a great record playing against England at Lords, NZ have been a bit more competitive over the last few decades at the home of cricket
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I guess that there may be some interest in this afternoon's announcement as it may show the hand by being the 11 plus one option based on toss/conditions and three covering for injury.
So maybe we will see the with/without spinner option and reserve Bat, Ball and Keeper.
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No love for CDG it seems. The comms keep saying that bowlers like him have been doing very well in England. He also serves as a pinch hitter if we want quick runs.
Ave 36 with the bat. 32 with the ball at 2.4 eco. 25 tests experience not to be sneezed at.
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@snowy said in Cricket 2021: NZ in England and WTC Final:
No love for CDG it seems. The comms keep saying that bowlers like him have been doing very well in England. He also serves as a pinch hitter if we want quick runs.
Ave 36 with the bat. 32 with the ball at 2.4 eco. 25 tests experience not to be sneezed at.
Is he short of a gallop? He is in the mix for me, along with D Mitch Ajaz and Blundell for me(if we choose to take an extra batsman)
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@arhs said in Cricket 2021: NZ in England and WTC Final:
I want them to bolster the batting with Daryl Mitchell and punt that swing will be vastly more important than spin. That also enhances our close catching of edges from the swinging ball and a Wagner bounce barrage.
Yeah - I'm leaning that way as well. Him or Colin.
Someone who can bowl a few handy overs and block up an end.
I think it's all very well talking about Big Kyle batting at 7 - but, if the Indians knock over our top order cheaply, we'll be pretty happy to have a genuine batsman at 7.
For reference, when we played them last year - CdG batted at 7 in both games. Ajaz played the first game (Wags didn't) and barely got a bowl. Wags came in for the 2nd game - got a couple of wickets and some handy runs. I wouldn't mind that team again - with Conway in for Blundell.
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If it comes down to CDGH vs Mitchell then surely the former gets the nod ? What has Johns son EVER done at test level with the ball ? His first class stats ( 80 wickets in 79 matches ) don’t exactly scream frontline bowling material.
Conway gets in at a canter but I’m not sure I’d want another inexperienced player in Mitchell there too.
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I have been searching for some kind of meaningful stat on how India handle playing with a Duke ball. Upshot is that there is little obvious change.
Given that the only real comparison is how they generally perform away against the Kookaburra I can't see much.Their average win rate against SA, Aus and NZ with the K ball is a little higher than against Eng and WI with the Duke.
The biggest differences in comparison are vs Eng (D) and Oz (K) - 14.5% v 17.3 and vs WI (D) and NZ (K) 17.6% and 20%.
So maybe a touch of an indication that historically the Duke is their least effective ball and maybe that the worst combo of all is the Duke in English conditions.
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@mn5 said in Cricket 2021: NZ in England and WTC Final:
If it comes down to CDGH vs Mitchell then surely the former gets the nod ? What has Johns son EVER done at test level with the ball ? His first class stats ( 80 wickets in 79 matches ) don’t exactly scream frontline bowling material.
Conway gets in at a canter but I’m not sure I’d want another inexperienced player in Mitchell there too.
He's the best batsman of the candidates though - maybe excepting Young, who doesn't bowl.
I wouldn't expect him to bowl much - if things go well, not at all!
But, yeah - Colin offers more threat with the ball
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@crucial said in Cricket 2021: NZ in England and WTC Final:
I have been searching for some kind of meaningful stat on how India handle playing with a Duke ball. Upshot is that there is little obvious change.
Given that the only real comparison is how they generally perform away against the Kookaburra I can't see much.Their average win rate against SA, Aus and NZ with the K ball is a little higher than against Eng and WI with the Duke.
The biggest differences in comparison are vs Eng (D) and Oz (K) - 14.5% v 17.3 and vs WI (D) and NZ (K) 17.6% and 20%.
So maybe a touch of an indication that historically the Duke is their least effective ball and maybe that the worst combo of all is the Duke in English conditions.
I had a quick look on cricinfo going through their current players stats in England. Doesnt make great reading.
10 tests in England Kohli only averages 36.Sub continent teams have historically struggled in seam/swing friendly countries like England and NZ. Though this current and recent Indian side differs alot from past teams.
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@crucial I did see a quote from Bumrah saying that he prefers bowling with the Duke ball. If the ball seams and swings around that is good news for us, as the NZ batsmen are more used to those conditions and we saw how India struggled in NZ.
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i see the logic in picking CDG at 7.
On his day he can nick the odd wicket out and he can certainly club the shit out of any bowling attack. A quick counter attacking 50 might be a huge help. Only issue is hes hardly played the last 12 months.But id be far more confident then having him over Satnav.
I did hope Mitchell might have done more with his 1 chance but it didnt come to much.
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@chris-b said in Cricket 2021: NZ in England and WTC Final:
@mn5 said in Cricket 2021: NZ in England and WTC Final:
If it comes down to CDGH vs Mitchell then surely the former gets the nod ? What has Johns son EVER done at test level with the ball ? His first class stats ( 80 wickets in 79 matches ) don’t exactly scream frontline bowling material.
Conway gets in at a canter but I’m not sure I’d want another inexperienced player in Mitchell there too.
He's the best batsman of the candidates though - maybe excepting Young, who doesn't bowl.
I wouldn't expect him to bowl much - if things go well, not at all!
But, yeah - Colin offers more threat with the ball
Possibly better than CDGH, not definitely.
Young isn’t in this discussion as he’s very much a specialist batsman who will be counting the days til Rossco calls time.
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@virgil said in Cricket 2021: NZ in England and WTC Final:
i see the logic in picking CDG at 7.
On his day he can nick the odd wicket out and he can certainly club the shit out of any bowling attack. A quick counter attacking 50 might be a huge help. Only issue is hes hardly played the last 12 months.But id be far more confident then having him over Satnav.
I did hope Mitchell might have done more with his 1 chance but it didnt come to much.
You’ve summed him up pretty well, he has the aura ( particularly on here ) of someone who has fluked a very good test career so far but is moments away from being found out by the top sides.
His figures in both disciplines don’t lie though. If it were up to me he’s in a straight shootout with Patel for a spot in the team. Knowing Stead he’ll chuck Santner and Mitchell in as options too.
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@mn5 said in Cricket 2021: NZ in England and WTC Final:
@chris-b said in Cricket 2021: NZ in England and WTC Final:
@mn5 said in Cricket 2021: NZ in England and WTC Final:
If it comes down to CDGH vs Mitchell then surely the former gets the nod ? What has Johns son EVER done at test level with the ball ? His first class stats ( 80 wickets in 79 matches ) don’t exactly scream frontline bowling material.
Conway gets in at a canter but I’m not sure I’d want another inexperienced player in Mitchell there too.
He's the best batsman of the candidates though - maybe excepting Young, who doesn't bowl.
I wouldn't expect him to bowl much - if things go well, not at all!
But, yeah - Colin offers more threat with the ball
Possibly better than CDGH, not definitely.
Young isn’t in this discussion as he’s very much a specialist batsman who will be counting the days til Rossco calls time.
I'm going with at least "probably" better. By pretty much every metric including first class and one day cricket, he's superior.
Other people have picked Young in their XI, but I agree - I can't see them picking him - thinking about it, I'd actually pick Blundell ahead of Young.
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@mn5 said in Cricket 2021: NZ in England and WTC Final:
His figures in both disciplines don’t lie though. I think he’s in a straight shootout with Patel for a spot in the team.
Yep. We either play a spinner or we don't. Batting better with CDG, so it will all come down to pitch and conditions.
Ajaz has a bowling average of just over 30 as well so in English conditions do we need him, against India? Batting ave 9. So the net gain is quite large with CDG. Not all about numbers but the side looks more balanced.
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@mn5 said in Cricket 2021: NZ in England and WTC Final:
@virgil said in Cricket 2021: NZ in England and WTC Final:
i see the logic in picking CDG at 7.
On his day he can nick the odd wicket out and he can certainly club the shit out of any bowling attack. A quick counter attacking 50 might be a huge help. Only issue is hes hardly played the last 12 months.But id be far more confident then having him over Satnav.
I did hope Mitchell might have done more with his 1 chance but it didnt come to much.
You’ve summed him up pretty well, he has the aura ( particularly on here ) of someone who has fluked a very good test career so far but is moments away from being found out by the top sides.
His figures in both disciplines don’t lie though. I think he’s in a straight shootout with Patel for a spot in the team.
they kinda do though
He's barely played away from home. He has a good number of games against Sri Lanka and Bangladesh and the Windies. 1 century and 8 50s from 38 innings, countered by 5 ducks.
His best serious series is in Australia where he averaged 30 by hitting 50, 40, 30, 20, 10 and 9.
With the ball he gets a wicket an innings, at a respectable rate of a little under 2.5
As you say, you look at the numbers and he's looking alright. BUT, his batting technique is a bit shit for long form cricket, so his best option is really to hit out and get those 30-odd as quick as he can (he averages about 38 balls an innings) And for a wicket to wicket slow medium bowler to tie up an end i wouldn't mind a few more runs than that at 7.
It's also telling his first class stats are so similar to his test stats.
I will absolutely concede that Daryl Mitchell's numbers don't exactly create a telling counter-argument. And i can't remember for the life of me what his technique is like.
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