All Blacks 2021
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@kiwi_expat said in All Blacks 2021:
His coaching style hasn't changed from the 2004 Chiefs gameplan. Headless Chook Rugby 101.
One of the big criticisms of the AB's is their gameplan hasn't changed much since around 2014 and Foster has simply followed Hansen's gameplan since taking over - which is a very fair criticism and one I agree with.
But as you state that Foster's gameplan hasn't changed since 2004 and he's continued with it as AB Coach, aren't you effectively arguing that Foster's game plan was years ahead of it's time, was copied by Henry and Hansen & won us RWC2011 & RWC2015....?
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@kiwi_expat said in All Blacks 2021:
Sometimes I wonder whether Dan54 and Victor Meldrew are some of Ian's relations, as I haven't come across such unwaveringly dedicated and loyal apologists of Fozzie on this forum, nor anywhere else (obviously, with the exception of old mate Shag Hansen..) In many ways, I can't help but admire their persistence and ability to not allow external viewpoints to influence their positions.
Wayne Smith quite rated Foster. Thought he'd really developed from his Chiefs days, too.
Foster is part of the problem, but he isn't the only problem. Our key issues are
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Super is no longer a superior comp to NH comps. This is major - the dilution, shagging around with system, and drop in quality means that when NH picked up their game they went past us. I'd argue that Super quality directly correlates to international success (with a bit of a lag).
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Governance/leadership
never thought I'd miss Steve Tew, but damn I miss Tew. The insanity of directly approaching Aussie Super, the appointment process for Foster that excluded credible candidates (due to timing and the perception of a closed shop), the early reappointment of Foster - it all points to poor governance. -
Foster
I was prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt. Hansen and Smith rated him and had him in the inner circle. However, the fear was that we'd see from the ABs what we saw from the Chiefs - poor/muddled selections, opaque game plans, regression in cohesion and skillsets, and a lack of forward dominance. It's played out that way - hence why so many folk are willing to put the boot in.
In fairness @kiwi_expat, Scott Robertson is not necessarily the answer either. He's had really good success, but in a limited environment. Coaching International is very differnet to coaching Super. I think he'd do a good job - but like players, it's not a lock that success transfers up a level.
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@nzzp said in All Blacks 2021:
@kiwi_expat said in All Blacks 2021:
Sometimes I wonder whether Dan54 and Victor Meldrew are some of Ian's relations, as I haven't come across such unwaveringly dedicated and loyal apologists of Fozzie on this forum, nor anywhere else (obviously, with the exception of old mate Shag Hansen..) In many ways, I can't help but admire their persistence and ability to not allow external viewpoints to influence their positions.
Wayne Smith quite rated Foster. Thought he'd really developed from his Chiefs days, too.
Foster is part of the problem, but he isn't the only problem. Our key issues are
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Super is no longer a superior comp to NH comps. This is major - the dilution, shagging around with system, and drop in quality means that when NH picked up their game they went past us. I'd argue that Super quality directly correlates to international success (with a bit of a lag).
-
Governance/leadership
never thought I'd miss Steve Tew, but damn I miss Tew. The insanity of directly approaching Aussie Super, the appointment process for Foster that excluded credible candidates (due to timing and the perception of a closed shop), the early reappointment of Foster - it all points to poor governance. -
Foster
I was prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt. Hansen and Smith rated him and had him in the inner circle. However, the fear was that we'd see from the ABs what we saw from the Chiefs - poor/muddled selections, opaque game plans, regression in cohesion and skillsets, and a lack of forward dominance. It's played out that way - hence why so many folk are willing to put the boot in.
In fairness @kiwi_expat, Scott Robertson is not necessarily the answer either. He's had really good success, but in a limited environment. Coaching International is very differnet to coaching Super. I think he'd do a good job - but like players, it's not a lock that success transfers up a level.
Pretty much agree with all of that.
I'd add there seems a culture issue around the team as which needs looking at as well - it seems part mental skills, part trusting your teammates and part dealing with pressure. We've lost the ability since 2015/6 to think and act at key points in a game and that has little to d with game-plan, tactics or forward dominance
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@victor-meldrew said in All Blacks 2021:
I'd add there seems a culture issue around the team as which needs looking at as well - it seems part mental skills, part trusting your teammates and part dealing with pressure. We've lost the ability since 2015/6 to think and act at key points in a game and that has little to d with game-plan, tactics or forward dominance
almost like losing generational players at the same time had a long lasting effect. McCaw, Carter, Nonu, Mealamu, Smith, Woodcock,
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@nzzp said in All Blacks 2021:
@victor-meldrew said in All Blacks 2021:
I'd add there seems a culture issue around the team as which needs looking at as well - it seems part mental skills, part trusting your teammates and part dealing with pressure. We've lost the ability since 2015/6 to think and act at key points in a game and that has little to d with game-plan, tactics or forward dominance
almost like losing generational players at the same time had a long lasting effect. McCaw, Carter, Nonu, Mealamu, Smith, Woodcock,
Or the cultural/Enoka thinking stuff, which GH was a big fan of, being seen as less important. It takes a fair while to build that up once it's decayed.
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@victor-meldrew said in All Blacks 2021:
@nzzp said in All Blacks 2021:
@victor-meldrew said in All Blacks 2021:
I'd add there seems a culture issue around the team as which needs looking at as well - it seems part mental skills, part trusting your teammates and part dealing with pressure. We've lost the ability since 2015/6 to think and act at key points in a game and that has little to d with game-plan, tactics or forward dominance
almost like losing generational players at the same time had a long lasting effect. McCaw, Carter, Nonu, Mealamu, Smith, Woodcock,
Or the cultural/Enoka thinking stuff, which GH was a big fan of, being seen as less important. It takes a fair while to build that up once it's decayed.
I think some of that is embedded as normal now but interesting to hear comments from Moana Pasifika players that they think they still aren't being coached to their best potential in the existing systems
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@crucial said in All Blacks 2021:
@victor-meldrew said in All Blacks 2021:
@nzzp said in All Blacks 2021:
@victor-meldrew said in All Blacks 2021:
I'd add there seems a culture issue around the team as which needs looking at as well - it seems part mental skills, part trusting your teammates and part dealing with pressure. We've lost the ability since 2015/6 to think and act at key points in a game and that has little to d with game-plan, tactics or forward dominance
almost like losing generational players at the same time had a long lasting effect. McCaw, Carter, Nonu, Mealamu, Smith, Woodcock,
Or the cultural/Enoka thinking stuff, which GH was a big fan of, being seen as less important. It takes a fair while to build that up once it's decayed.
I think some of that is embedded as normal now but interesting to hear comments from Moana Pasifika players that they think they still aren't being coached to their best potential in the existing systems
I was thinking more on how the players react to pressure on the field and support and interact with other as well as the values they actually exhibit (and not just profess). rather than the coaching - though there's obviously a big connection
Mrs M knows a bit about this sort of stuff and thought some of the on-field body language when things weren't going well didn't look too healthy when she watched the last RWC with me.
IIRC there was a big player-led pow-wow about 15 years ago on this which was a watershed. Time for another?
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this thread has really rammed home just how fucking arrogant we are on here
And i am not talking the usual NZ fan All Black Supremacy thing either
(and before the inevitable "pot kettle motherfucker" i absolutely include myself in here)
Even at it's base, this thread is scathing after a couple of lost games, one to a very late penalty (which i don't see as any different to winning by a late penalty really), one we were a marginal forward pass from winning, and one where the scoreboard was bad, but i doubt i was alone in thinking we would win at about the 3/4 mark. We're at peak "the ABs should win by 2 scores every test. And have better forwards and better backs than the opposition" which is never going to happen in professional rugby (aside from a couple of freak teams we have put out)
Then we have the posters who think they have already worked out how to beat a rush defense, and are basically saying "just do this you idiot! it's so obvious" like those who get paid to do this just haven't seen it. Or have identified the 2 things that need to change for the side to be completely fixed "it's so obvious!!"
Or those who have convinced themselves they know the inner workings of the AB set up, know what is happening, who is responsible for what, and why the people inside it are doing what they are doing. Or, most importantly, why people are being given a particular role.
That's before the 2nd wave of "have you played sport champ? cause i have, so listen to me" or "well, you haven't said anything i completely agree with in the last 2 pages (ignoring thread after thread after thread of evidence) so you are an apologist, or their mum, or whatever, posters who have come in red hot.
Don't get me wrong, it's entertaining reading. But lets not lose sight of the fact that we are nothing more than interested, but ignorant, spectators. Modern, elite professional rugby is almost a different sport to even the highest level that the vast majority of us played.
I'm not trying to change the tone, as i said, this is entertaining. But don't lose sight of the fact that none of us know a goddam thing.
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@mariner4life said in All Blacks 2021:
I'm not trying to change the tone, as i said, this is entertaining. But don't lose sight of the fact that none of us know a goddam thing.
Speak for yourself, I played rugby until I was 12.
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@mariner4life i dont think ive actually suggest much so dont think i can be included in those claiming to know anything
slightly more seriously, for me, i just dont enjoy how we're playing, maybe because largely i dont understand what we're trying to do or i might do but it just doesn't make sense....so i assume i'm missed something, i very much enjoyed the couple of games i watched Japan play last year more than the AB's, i also remember enjoying the loss to the bokke more than the win and i can only assume that was down to how we played making more sense to me
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His coaching style hasn't changed from the 2004 Chiefs gameplan. Headless Chook Rugby 101.
Scant evidence to suggest Foster has improved or updated his coaching methods in 16/17 years..
But I thought Fosters Chiefs had the second best win ratio and second best points against in super rugby in 2004. Not a bad place to start.
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@mariner4life said in All Blacks 2021:
Even at it's base, this thread is scathing after a couple of lost games, one to a very late penalty (which i don't see as any different to winning by a late penalty really), one we were a marginal forward pass from winning, and one where the scoreboard was bad, but i doubt i was alone in thinking we would win at about the 3/4 mark. We're at peak "the ABs should win by 2 scores every test. And have better forwards and better backs than the opposition" which is never going to happen in professional rugby (aside from a couple of freak teams we have put out).
I think you're missing the point a little.
Most aren't concerned with losses, but more specifically, our directionless, helter-skelter style under Foster.
It's more the manner of the losses - here's an excellent analysis of where we're at currently:
Squidge is always good value, but I think he's particularly spot on in this one. A fair bit of it focuses on Ireland (fair enough too), but the most relevant part is from approx. minute 12-15 where he calls out that we essentially rely on individual brilliance rather than any discernable attacking plan, & calls us the 'least imaginatively coached' team aside from Canada...
He's also right in saying Ireland didn't even have to play at their absolute peak to tear us apart this time around.
There does not seem to be anything remotely strategic about how the All Blacks play currently, where is the coaching?
They allow the other team some possession, tackle ferociously and then feed off the scraps with often brilliant unstructured play.
Take a look at the Ireland game. They weren't organized the phase before the phase, always playing one step behind as players overcommitted to rucks they needn't have, leaving players short elsewhere.
The ball was often static, sent to a runner standing still, and that runner failed to initiate any forward momentum for others to play off. They couldn't play direct and keep the defense honest as players shied away and fell away sideways with their passes.
The ball carriers lacked options inside and out, or just disregarded them, as no one seemed to be able to anticipate support lines. There were no tip balls or well-worked offloads.
One-out runners were easily gobbled up by both Ireland and France, it was all so predictable. The mechanics of it all were dysfunctional and the timing of everything lacked cohesion.
Of most concern was a lack of desire to take it to the line until the final ball carrier had the ball, and no choice. The attack and ball-in-hand play across both tests lacked many basic aspects required at this level.
Contrast that with Ireland's phase play below, where their organized structure possessed all of those features.
Joe Schmidt would fire a rocket up this team if he was on Foster's staff overseeing this standard of attack, and quite frankly by all accounts it looks like they need him as the structured play is anything but clinical..
Under Ian Foster, it seems we're tactically clueless & ineffective against more organized sides, because (as Squidge highlighted in the video above) our game plan is heavily reliant on the individual brilliance of our personal..
There's a complete lack of identifiable structure to our team, we have cluttered and confused forward orientation, an outdated & extremely one dimensional attacking system, serious lack of cohesion & alignment between players on both attack and defense, there is very little co-ordination to our forward play & the breakdown has been a disordered mess of epic proportions..
I wouldn't care so much about the losses if we were playing intelligent rugby or showing any indications of improvement.
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by all means, double down
we almost won that game.
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@mariner4life said in All Blacks 2021:
this thread has really rammed home just how fucking arrogant we are on here
And i am not talking the usual NZ fan All Black Supremacy thing either
(and before the inevitable "pot kettle motherfucker" i absolutely include myself in here)
Even at it's base, this thread is scathing after a couple of lost games, one to a very late penalty (which i don't see as any different to winning by a late penalty really), one we were a marginal forward pass from winning, and one where the scoreboard was bad, but i doubt i was alone in thinking we would win at about the 3/4 mark. We're at peak "the ABs should win by 2 scores every test. And have better forwards and better backs than the opposition" which is never going to happen in professional rugby (aside from a couple of freak teams we have put out)
Then we have the posters who think they have already worked out how to beat a rush defense, and are basically saying "just do this you idiot! it's so obvious" like those who get paid to do this just haven't seen it. Or have identified the 2 things that need to change for the side to be completely fixed "it's so obvious!!"
Or those who have convinced themselves they know the inner workings of the AB set up, know what is happening, who is responsible for what, and why the people inside it are doing what they are doing. Or, most importantly, why people are being given a particular role.
That's before the 2nd wave of "have you played sport champ? cause i have, so listen to me" or "well, you haven't said anything i completely agree with in the last 2 pages (ignoring thread after thread after thread of evidence) so you are an apologist, or their mum, or whatever, posters who have come in red hot.
Don't get me wrong, it's entertaining reading. But lets not lose sight of the fact that we are nothing more than interested, but ignorant, spectators. Modern, elite professional rugby is almost a different sport to even the highest level that the vast majority of us played.
I'm not trying to change the tone, as i said, this is entertaining. But don't lose sight of the fact that none of us know a goddam thing.
Without talking myself up too much I’ve never claimed to
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@mariner4life said in All Blacks 2021:
Or those who have convinced themselves they know the inner workings of the AB set up, know what is happening, who is responsible for what, and why the people inside it are doing what they are doing. Or, most importantly, why people are being given a particular role.
The issue with bad coaches in good teams is the rot is slow and it takes a long time to notice because the old systems from the good coaches (wink,wink Wayne Smith, Hansen...) are still in the player's minds but they eventually forget, the slide begins, the losses come and you forget how to win. South Africa had recently been there, experienced that with Coetzee and were pretty fortunate that they had a miracle (in Rassie) on speed dial.
I mentioned it when Foster was initially appointed. Human relations 101, it's even in a NZ written university text book; the highest predictor of positive future performance is past positive performance in a similar role. It's about 70% accurate, other predictors are not much more these 50%, or not much better than chance no matter what product and a recruiting firm would want to sell you (beware of their hype as they're selling their product).
The evidence points to the fact that Foster's past record as head coach of a professional rugby team is dire.
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@mariner4life said in All Blacks 2021:
by all means, double down
we almost won that game.
Sounds like a Welsh fan, not an AB one.
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@kiwi_expat said in All Blacks 2021:
@mariner4life said in All Blacks 2021:
Or those who have convinced themselves they know the inner workings of the AB set up, know what is happening, who is responsible for what, and why the people inside it are doing what they are doing. Or, most importantly, why people are being given a particular role.
The issue with bad coaches in good teams is the rot is slow and it takes a long time to notice because the old systems from the good coaches (wink,wink Wayne Smith, Hansen...) are still in the player's minds but they eventually forget, the slide begins, the losses come and you forget how to win. South Africa had recently been there, experienced that with Coetzee and were pretty fortunate that they had a miracle (in Rassie) on speed dial.
I mentioned it when Foster was initially appointed. Human relations 101, it's even in a NZ written university text book; the highest predictor of positive future performance is past positive performance in a similar recent role. It's about 70% accurate, other predictors are not much more these 50%, or not much better than chance no matter what product and a recruiting firm would want to sell you (beware of their hype as they're selling their product).
The evidence points to the fact that Foster's past record as head coach of a professional rugby team is dire.
Added one word only ... my qualification is that I'm dubious that club/SR level head coaching success translates directly to top international level, though it can do with the right person. A lot is about the coaching team though, so if Scott Robertson interviews for Head Coach and could bring a team like say Tony Brown and Joe Schmid to the table it would say a lot about him just to get those type of buy-ins
(I'm biased as if Scott Robertson wants but doesn't get the next AB gig - he might end up as Eddie's replacement which would be fascinating for the lolz, and the Fern will have a meltdown! Otherwise my money might be on Steve Borthwick over here as he was a long-term assistant coach for England, RFU connections, head coach of Leicester since 2020)
Personally I don't have a problem with AB's playing overseas and being selected from there btw, NZR do ... that's more structural and financial though? Some good examples of motivated younger (non-AB or AB-fringe) players who have succesfully continued to develop in Europe. Some stagnate too.
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@kiwi_expat said in All Blacks 2021:
@mariner4life said in All Blacks 2021:
Or those who have convinced themselves they know the inner workings of the AB set up, know what is happening, who is responsible for what, and why the people inside it are doing what they are doing. Or, most importantly, why people are being given a particular role.
The issue with bad coaches in good teams is the rot is slow and it takes a long time to notice because the old systems from the good coaches (wink,wink Wayne Smith, Hansen...) are still in the player's minds but they eventually forget, the slide begins, the losses come and you forget how to win. South Africa had recently been there, experienced that with Coetzee and were pretty fortunate that they had a miracle (in Rassie) on speed dial.
I mentioned it when Foster was initially appointed. Human relations 101, it's even in a NZ written university text book; the highest predictor of positive future performance is past positive performance in a similar role. It's about 70% accurate, other predictors are not much more these 50%, or not much better than chance no matter what product and a recruiting firm would want to sell you (beware of their hype as they're selling their product).
The evidence points to the fact that Foster's past record as head coach of a professional rugby team is dire.
Can you point me towards that source (i.e., the academic study)?
I have a professional interest in reading it.
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this thread was more fun before you all scared off @NZbloke
