Silver Lake buying a stake in the ABs?
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@godder said in Silver Lake buying a stake in the ABs?:
@rancid-schnitzel said in Silver Lake buying a stake in the ABs?:
@godder said in Silver Lake buying a stake in the ABs?:
@taniwharugby in essence, it will leave less revenue for paying players, so they are more likely to play overseas, in which case Silver Lake will demand that overseas players are eligible for AB selection to protect revenue from AB games.
Will SL be in a position to be able make demands like that? And if so, would the NZRFU be forced to bow to those demands?
Don't know, but the article makes the point that NZR are selling 12.5% of revenue with no reduction in costs, so if there is not enough subsequent revenue growth, player costs are the most likely place to try to make savings.
Or in a hundred other places that hurt the local unions, women's game, or anything else that loses money (which is almost all of it).
I've yet to see anyone properly discuss where they are going to generate this extra revenue (e.g., Will we have 12 different sponsors plastered all over the AB jersey? Will the rights to the AB Haka etc be transferred across?) and with SL seemingly about to get a share in other unions (e.g., OZ) I start to worry about the bargaining power of the NZRFU versus the commercial arm and those other unions when you have directors on each board acting in the interests of their parent company.
I'm not sure that this risk has been factored in, and then there are the competing findings from the different accounting firms about the risks (None from KPMG, financed by NZRFU; heaps from the firm contracted by the RPU).
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@pakman said in Silver Lake buying a stake in the ABs?:
@number-10 said in Silver Lake buying a stake in the ABs?:
NZR Press Conference after today's AGM
So this is an evergreen deal with SL getting 12.5% p.a. of $200m a year, which is growing.
Let's just say $25m p.a. with some growth. It's sounding more like a royalty stream than an equity investment. $25m assuming a 4% yield is valued at $625m.
I've said it before. Such deals should be for a time period with mutual right of renewal.
I'd much rather NZR just sold them a ten year 12.5% royalty for $200m.
Would make the situation much less liable to run aground over (NZR) unexpected consequences!
The recent press, and in particular Kirk comments, make it clear that NZR is selling 12.5% royalty.
SL must think NZR are a bunch of bumpkins.
$387m for a 12.5% profit share would be attractive.
But for a 12.5% ROYALTY the price ought to be more like $625m.
SL is a cool $240m ahead on day one.
There is nothing clever in that.
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Forsyth Barr enters battle to buy into New Zealand Rugby
An alternative offer to Silver Lake, valuing New Zealand Rugby at a colossal $3.8 billion, has been tabled by local investment manager Forsyth Barr.
The Auckland head-quartered company has conducted due diligence on the prospect of NZR selling a five per cent stake in its future commercial revenues through an NZX listing and believes investor demand could potentially raise as much as $650m.
Under the terms of the Forsyth proposal – conducted at the request of the New Zealand Rugby Players' Association which is not supportive of selling a stake in the national game to US fund manager Silver Lake - NZR would be able to raise between $170m and $190m, with as much as 40 per cent of the offering being open to mum and dad investors who could buy in for as little as $100.
Forsyth managing director Neil Paviour-Smith says that his firm are willing to underwrite the deal as a number of significant fund management houses and high net worth New Zealanders have already indicated they would make significant investments.
Such a deal would, therefore, be deemed low risk and value NZR at between $3.4bn and $3.8bn, which is 12 per cent to 23 per cent higher than the valuation offered by Silver Lake.
The Silver Lake deal, for which NZR has received the backing of provincial unions to proceed, will raise $387.5m and see the US group take 12.5 per cent of net revenue.
The NZRPA have been strongly opposed to the deal, with its president, former All Black captain David Kirk, also chairman of Forsyth Barr.
"This is what we do day in day out," says Paviour-Smith in answer to whether his firm's assessment of the likely investment demand is credible.
"We assess all sorts of different opportunities and first and foremost we obtain a sense of client demand. We have already had conversations with Kiwi Saver managers and other institutional investors. We think there will be wide public appeal."
The Forsyth presentation document possessed by the Herald, entitled NZ Inc, states that the gross proceeds of a five per cent Initial Public Offer would allow NZR to: "Distribute $39m to the provinces and the New Zealand Maori Board as per the Silver Lake proposal.
"Make a capital contribution to CommercialCo of $50m as per the Silver Lake proposal.
"Result in NZR reserves of between $136m and $154m, significantly more than their reserves policy target (40 per cent of their cost base) and pre Covid-19 reserve levels."
The Forsyth proposal has been sent to NZR by the NZRPA with a memo requesting it be seriously considered and discussed as a viable and better alternative to the Silver Lake bid.
In response, NZR chief executive Mark Robinson said he was "shocked and disappointed" by the NZRPA's decision to share the proposal with the media before sharing it with the organisation.
...It's a long article, so won't copy and paste all of it.
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Finally some sense . NZ IPO is the way forward. Kirk to the rescue.
Scrap the Silver Lake deal, close the door on the way out. -
Second job . Get Razor on board.
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Great to finally see some sense here at last and not the PR sledgehammer of emotion without supporting detail. David Kirk has a vastly better proposal. I am very disappointed at how Mark Robinson has presented the Silver Lake thing to sell it on behalf of NZRU. It feels like a Sledge Hammer approach of "Trust me I know what I'm doing" while offering prompt cash handouts to gain support but not properly outlining details of the income streams and risks beyond that.
This is not an election to get 4 more years in power. It is about the longer term strategic plan for NZ rugby. I was involved in another sport that was torn apart from going down a similar route to Silver Lake. There are plenty of informative analogies out there. We'll done to Mr Kirk the players association and Forsyth Barr. We can now all look forward to some meaningful information on how their investment in NZRU will work at inception and moving forward. -
You would have to have rocks in your head to be a mum and Dad investor to go anywhere near the proposal that David Kirk is suggesting especially when you look at the big picture ,numbers playing are free falling , clubs are struggling to get numbers in many cases amalgamating..and even if you look at the game at the very top level , they play to half fill stadiums …I could not give a continental where David got his degree , this proposal has got more potential to more serious damage in the hearts and the minds of the supporters that the game has got left …have not met one person who said they would invest , I am already paid my dues for supporting and following this game I love ..
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@steven-harris said in Silver Lake buying a stake in the ABs?:
You would have to have rocks in your head to be a mum and Dad investor to go anywhere near the proposal that David Kirk is suggesting especially when you look at the big picture ,numbers playing are free falling , clubs are struggling to get numbers in many cases amalgamating..and even if you look at the game at the very top level , they play to half fill stadiums …I could not give a continental where David got his degree , this proposal has got more potential to more serious damage in the hearts and the minds of the supporters that the game has got left …have not met one person who said they would invest , I am already paid my dues for supporting and following this game I love ..
Interesting, I had a discussion with the wife already about putting in $1000.
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@steven-harris said in Silver Lake buying a stake in the ABs?:
You would have to have rocks in your head to be a mum and Dad investor to go anywhere near the proposal that David Kirk is suggesting especially when you look at the big picture ,numbers playing are free falling , clubs are struggling to get numbers in many cases amalgamating..and even if you look at the game at the very top level , they play to half fill stadiums …I could not give a continental where David got his degree , this proposal has got more potential to more serious damage in the hearts and the minds of the supporters that the game has got left …have not met one person who said they would invest , I am already paid my dues for supporting and following this game I love ..
Yeah, I don't normally think of anything like this but would love to put a small amount in to truly be a shareholder in the game rather than trying to hold that claim because I watch TV or go to a game. That makes me a customer not a stakeholder.
And yes, I've put time into the game with coaching kids etc and paid club fees. I don't think that affords any kind of right though. -
@crucial said in Silver Lake buying a stake in the ABs?:
@steven-harris said in Silver Lake buying a stake in the ABs?:
You would have to have rocks in your head to be a mum and Dad investor to go anywhere near the proposal that David Kirk is suggesting especially when you look at the big picture ,numbers playing are free falling , clubs are struggling to get numbers in many cases amalgamating..and even if you look at the game at the very top level , they play to half fill stadiums …I could not give a continental where David got his degree , this proposal has got more potential to more serious damage in the hearts and the minds of the supporters that the game has got left …have not met one person who said they would invest , I am already paid my dues for supporting and following this game I love ..
Yeah, I don't normally think of anything like this but would love to put a small amount in to truly be a shareholder in the game rather than trying to hold that claim because I watch TV or go to a game. That makes me a customer not a stakeholder.
And yes, I've put time into the game with coaching kids etc and paid club fees. I don't think that affords any kind of right though.Reckon it does. It makes you an owner of the game.
The is owned by the club members, who appoint the representatives to the Unions, who appoint the NZR board.
To my mind, there are already shareholders in NZ Rugby.
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@booboo said in Silver Lake buying a stake in the ABs?:
@crucial said in Silver Lake buying a stake in the ABs?:
@steven-harris said in Silver Lake buying a stake in the ABs?:
You would have to have rocks in your head to be a mum and Dad investor to go anywhere near the proposal that David Kirk is suggesting especially when you look at the big picture ,numbers playing are free falling , clubs are struggling to get numbers in many cases amalgamating..and even if you look at the game at the very top level , they play to half fill stadiums …I could not give a continental where David got his degree , this proposal has got more potential to more serious damage in the hearts and the minds of the supporters that the game has got left …have not met one person who said they would invest , I am already paid my dues for supporting and following this game I love ..
Yeah, I don't normally think of anything like this but would love to put a small amount in to truly be a shareholder in the game rather than trying to hold that claim because I watch TV or go to a game. That makes me a customer not a stakeholder.
And yes, I've put time into the game with coaching kids etc and paid club fees. I don't think that affords any kind of right though.Reckon it does. It makes you an owner of the game.
The is owned by the club members, who appoint the representatives to the Unions, who appoint the NZR board.
To my mind, there are already shareholders in NZ Rugby.
Sadly, the NZ Provincial Unions only appoint three of the nine Board members now - one per year.
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The McGod has spoken against the Silver Lake deal. Listen to the GOAT, folks, listen to the GOAT.
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@sparky said in Silver Lake buying a stake in the ABs?:
The McGod has spoken against the Silver Lake deal. Listen to the GOAT, folks, listen to the GOAT.
Good rugby player.
How's his corporate financial acumen? Genuine question.
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@booboo or his knowledge of all the finer detail.
Surely NZR have already investigated floating on the sharemarket at some point?
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@booboo said in Silver Lake buying a stake in the ABs?:
@sparky said in Silver Lake buying a stake in the ABs?:
The McGod has spoken against the Silver Lake deal. Listen to the GOAT, folks, listen to the GOAT.
Good rugby player.
How's his corporate financial acumen? Genuine question.
I thought that he was among the group of players that have been playing in the investment markets for some time. I may have this wrong but aren’t he and DC big investors in the retirement care sector?
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@crucial doesnt necessarily make them experts on the detail of this proposal...?
