Worst All Black RWC exits
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@rapido said in Worst All Black RWC exits:
@dogmeat said in Worst All Black RWC exits:
@rotated Other than that we 'd beaten the Boks in SA in 92 and in NZ in 94,beaten the Lions in 93, had a record against Oz of 2-1-2 since the 91 RWC having drawn the last match in Sydney , had lost narrowly to England away with an under strength team and should have drawn the series against France in 04 but for the "try from the ends of the earth"
95 was probably the most even comp (pre the tournament) there's ever been. I still rated OZ the #1 because they'd given us the hardest matches and were reigning champs, SA at home were going to be a threat but I still fancied us. I didn't rate the Poms at all (the year didn't end in a 3). France were France and should have been in the final.
The reality was Lomu came good, Bachop came back and the debutants, Mehrts, Kronfeld and Osborne were the missing components that made for an outstanding team.
We'd lost our last test matches (or drawn in SA case) against every one of the other 1995 favourites. 1994 was the 3rd worst year in NZ rugby history up to that point (probably still is). (Edit: No, 1998 bumps it down to 4th worse)
NZ were a shambles who started to get it right about 1 month before the tournament.
I agree it was an even comp, though. But only the more anorak of NZ fans could have felt an inkling of something good in about April 1995. For most fans and media, it was more revisionist.
That's interesting. I read somewhere that the All Blacks were favourites going into every single RWC except for 1987. This was in the build up to 2011, so at that point it would have meant that the only one you'd won was the only one you weren't expected to win. Sounds like that might have been bollocks.
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@gibbonrib said in Worst All Black RWC exits:
@rapido said in Worst All Black RWC exits:
@dogmeat said in Worst All Black RWC exits:
@rotated Other than that we 'd beaten the Boks in SA in 92 and in NZ in 94,beaten the Lions in 93, had a record against Oz of 2-1-2 since the 91 RWC having drawn the last match in Sydney , had lost narrowly to England away with an under strength team and should have drawn the series against France in 04 but for the "try from the ends of the earth"
95 was probably the most even comp (pre the tournament) there's ever been. I still rated OZ the #1 because they'd given us the hardest matches and were reigning champs, SA at home were going to be a threat but I still fancied us. I didn't rate the Poms at all (the year didn't end in a 3). France were France and should have been in the final.
The reality was Lomu came good, Bachop came back and the debutants, Mehrts, Kronfeld and Osborne were the missing components that made for an outstanding team.
We'd lost our last test matches (or drawn in SA case) against every one of the other 1995 favourites. 1994 was the 3rd worst year in NZ rugby history up to that point (probably still is). (Edit: No, 1998 bumps it down to 4th worse)
NZ were a shambles who started to get it right about 1 month before the tournament.
I agree it was an even comp, though. But only the more anorak of NZ fans could have felt an inkling of something good in about April 1995. For most fans and media, it was more revisionist.
That's interesting. I read somewhere that the All Blacks were favourites going into every single RWC except for 1987. This was in the build up to 2011, so at that point it would have meant that the only one you'd won was the only one you weren't expected to win. Sounds like that might have been bollocks.
1995 is the most egrarious. But several other tournaments it is also probably contentious.
For actual proper betting favourites. NZ didn't have legal betting until 1996. So, it depends on how favouritism is measured. Only UK and Northern Territory (Centrebet) would have had any sort of betting market on rugby for the first 3 tournament.
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- Yes, NZ were probably favourites but the smart money would have been on the fast rising Australians who convincingly beat NZ in lead up. But NZ had been great from 87 to 90, so aura was legit. From an NZ POV - Concern - but (false) hope was there that they had a big one in them when needed.
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- Probably had eeked into favouritism again. After the horrors of 1998. Very similar to 1995, except this time with RWC in November rather than May the team had enough time to display to fans and media that they were 'back'. Probably favourites, but suffered worst defeat in history (to eventual champs) in the last match before the tournament. This is still NZ's worse defeat 22 years later.
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- Similar to pattern of 95 and 99. Had been crap but found form in RWC year and handed out record thrashings. I don't know official markets. But my gauge is NZ fans had it about equal favouritism with England who were the benchmark. Could the new found dynamism match England's experience. Theory/hope that hard grounds and heat of Australia in November may tip it NZ's way. I'd be surprised if foreign fans, media , markets had NZ favoutites in 2003 though? Maybe those 50 pointers in the Tri nations did do it?
Really, just shows how bad rugby punditry is, or was. 3 rebuilt, young and fragile teams. 2 being given actual favouritism or 1 assigned retrospective favouritism.
However. In summary:
1991 yes.
2007, 2011, 2015, 2019 - definite.
(2019 with the reek of creaking 1991 however - as discussed/predicted on this site from about a year out. But, runs on the board and all that ...) -
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@canefan said in Worst All Black RWC exits:
If I'd known in 1995 what I knew in 2010, 1995 would have been a much bigger heartbreak. We were basically unbackable favourites to win and stumbled at the final hurdle
by the time of the final, unbackable.
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@rapido said in Worst All Black RWC exits:
@canefan said in Worst All Black RWC exits:
If I'd known in 1995 what I knew in 2010, 1995 would have been a much bigger heartbreak. We were basically unbackable favourites to win and stumbled at the final hurdle
by the time of the final, unbackable.
Yes. After what we did to England, it seemed all but assured. Of course we didn't account for Suzie and her poisoned tea urn....
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In the dying stage of extra time in 1995. With the knowledge that we would win on red card countback if it was drawn, I started to hope we wouldn't get one of those dropkicks. For the sake of the credibility of the sport.
Oh how I scoffed at the 1995 version of myself by about 2010.
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@rapido said in Worst All Black RWC exits:
In the dying stage of extra time in 1995. With the knowledge that we would win on red card countback if it was drawn, I started to hope we wouldn't get one of those dropkicks. For the sake of the credibility of the sport.
Oh how I scoffed at the 1995 version of myself by about 2010.
At the time I was pretty disappointed, but I guess there was feeling that it had only been 8 years since our first triumph, and we'd win it again pretty quickly. Of course little did we know....
... it would be a little longer than 4 more years
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Not an AB exit, but a memory from the 1999 WC that some of you might appreciate:
I was living in London at the time, so I went to watch the NZ-Scotland quarter-final with my Kiwi girlfriend and a couple of her Kiwi mates in a Scottish pub (can't remember the name, somewhere near St Pancras I think). Very rowdy but good natured Scottish crowd as you'd expect, we were the only non-Scots there as far I could see.
TV was in the corner of the room, up high. There was one bloke sitting at the front on his own, drinking his pint and watching the build up. Quiet guy, tall and skinny. Just as the Haka is about to start, he gets up and walks over to corner and stands under the TV, turns to face the entire pub, takes off his shirt and lets out a huge roar. Proceeds to do the full Ka Mate, fully synchronised with the ABs on TV above him.
The whole pub goes nuts, cracking atmosphere all game, and the lone Kiwi isn't allowed to buy another drink for the rest of the night.
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@nzzp said in Worst All Black RWC exits:
@rotated said in Worst All Black RWC exits:
Tactically keeping possession playing for the try/penalty was the right call IMO
100% this. The thing that was such an aberration was the way that Rugby was being reffed at the time led to a bit of a penalty fest... almost always for the team in possession. It's simplistic to point at a forward pass as the key moment, and so the media and plenty of the public do that. But the real scandal there was the ref swallowing the whistle.
The good news is that I think these days that game gets reffed differently - and there's no way the forward pass stands
I partly agree, but some of the selections were questionable when it came to a tight RWC knockout match. The bench that had Leonard, Masoe, Toeava - all were a bit deer in the headlights. Why not select Howlett? He had tasted RWC defeat so would’ve been brimming. Why not bring on fresh legs in the front row and play Tialata? I would’ve started Jack, but that’s just me!
And why not go with McAllister and Conrad (a combo used earlier in the cup), start Mils at fullback and then have Rangi off the bench (where he had provided great impact before)?
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@nzzp said in Worst All Black RWC exits:
@kiwimurph said in Worst All Black RWC exits:
On the flip side though I found the adulation of Hansen a bit too much post RWC Semi final loss - the 3rd/4th match was like a farewell tour and there was next to no criticism of him/ABs after a stuttering last few years.
He wanted to go in 2017, and I was stoked at the time that he stayed on. In hindsight, it would have been a good break - a dodgily drawn Lions series ravaged by injuries ... but at least not a loss. RWC was a bridge too far, and I think a lot of the people (team and coaches) got stale.
Agreed that in hindsight, Shag should have gone then. We would still have bombed out of the RWC 2019 in the semis (or maybe even earlier), but at least Fozzie's time would have been done and dusted and we'd have a different (and hopefully more competent coach) now
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@rancid-schnitzel said in Worst All Black RWC exits:
@rotated said in Worst All Black RWC exits:
@nepia said in Worst All Black RWC exits:
Mine go a bit like this:
Most angry as results due to selection/coach stupidity: 2019, 2003.
Most gutted: 1995.
Most gutted in person: 1999. (Actually, with the backline selections this can go in first as well.)
Angry but we got a bit screwed so was easier to take: 2007.
Remarkably similar to mine.
1995 was the closest the ABs will likely ever come to having a Cinderella run. Fourth favourites going into the tournament and then Lomu and Mehrts play their second tests in the opener and it's off to the races.
1999 was a shock but I still thought it was a coin flip against Australia or South Africa if they made the final so I didn't really feel like we blew a certain RWC there (although Lomu firing up in England game, and then early in the semi did make one feel that we had turned a corner).
2003 was a shock. I was at the 50 point drubbing earlier that year in Sydney and wasn't privvy to a lot of the unrest in the camp. Absolute shock that one. But in hindsight understandable.
2007 I basically put in the same basket as the 2019 CWC Final. It wasn't to be... there was plenty to fault and nothing to fault at the same time.
2019 like many here I saw coming from a mile off after they didn't seem to learn any lessons after Chicago/Lions Tour/Twickenham/Dublin. That wasn't a side capable of winning three big tests in a row.
The issues in 1995 could have been solved with a better chef.
The issues in 2003 and 2007 could have been solved during the tournament.
The issues in 1991, 1999 and 2019 were probably too far gone before the tournament started.I think that’s spot on. I don’t think they deserved to win or were good enough to win in 91, 99, 03 and 19. They were the best team in 1995 and 2007 (you could argue they had the best 2 teams) and that’s why those hurt the most by far, particularly when considering the rather freakish circumstances surrounding those losses.
There has been some rotten luck as well. Aus were a bee’s dick away from losing to Ireland in 91. I don’t think the Irish would have had the legs to back that up in the semis and we would have (rather undeservedly) won the cup.
In terms of bad luck, 2007 and 2019 are also up there - two surprise upsets in pool play that ultimately fucked us in very different ways. In 2019 in particular, we would have likely been better equipped and planned to beat England in a semi had we not had to completely blow our load against Ireland in a quarter final.
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@rotated said in Worst All Black RWC exits:
@rancid-schnitzel said in Worst All Black RWC exits:
I think that’s spot on. I don’t think they deserved to win or were good enough to win in 91, 99, 03 and 19. They were the best team in 1995 and 2007 (you could argue they had the best 2 teams) and that’s why those hurt the most by far, particularly when considering the rather freakish circumstances surrounding those losses.
There has been some rotten luck as well. Aus were a bee’s dick away from losing to Ireland in 91. I don’t think the Irish would have had the legs to back that up in the semis and we would have (rather undeservedly) won the cup.
The inverse of that is true in 2003 though. The core of that Australian team who wouldn't win a Bledisloe Cup game between 2003-2006 went to extra time against England in the final, and we toweled them 3-0 the next year.
But adding to the sliding doors:
In1995 France/South Africa semi-final was robbery. We should have played France in the final. (but also if the pools were inversed, Lomu's game against England never happens and we play in the rain in Durban and who knows... )
In 1999 France should have been on the other side of the draw if Paddy O'Brien hadn't have bottled the Fiji/France game.
In 2003 - Mils in the corner.
In 2007 - Pick anything from Lauaki's suspension which was overturned too late for him to be included in the 22 onward.
In 2019 - Who knows the result of France vs England? But more realistically if Japan didn't tip over Ireland and we get Japan in the QF?As per my previous post, if France don't bottle it against Argentina in the opening match, we have a completely different QF opponent and likely outcome
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@kiwimurph said in Worst All Black RWC exits:
7 it was the QF vs Fiji for Boks.
I'd also add the following:
- QF for England in 2003, when they went in behind on the scoreboard at halftime (similar in pool play against Samoa from memory)
- Final was also a little bit hairy for RSA in 2007
- Final also got too close for comfort in 2015 when Aus ended up only 4 points behind at one point
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@junior said in Worst All Black RWC exits:
@nzzp said in Worst All Black RWC exits:
@kiwimurph said in Worst All Black RWC exits:
On the flip side though I found the adulation of Hansen a bit too much post RWC Semi final loss - the 3rd/4th match was like a farewell tour and there was next to no criticism of him/ABs after a stuttering last few years.
He wanted to go in 2017, and I was stoked at the time that he stayed on. In hindsight, it would have been a good break - a dodgily drawn Lions series ravaged by injuries ... but at least not a loss. RWC was a bridge too far, and I think a lot of the people (team and coaches) got stale.
Agreed that in hindsight, Shag should have gone then. We would still have bombed out of the RWC 2019 in the semis (or maybe even earlier), but at least Fozzie's time would have been done and dusted and we'd have a different (and hopefully more competent coach) now
On the other hand, Foster might have picked Cane in the starting XV and we'd have been in the Final with a chance of winning 3 in a row.
Foster would have been nailed on for years...
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@act-crusader said in Worst All Black RWC exits:
@nzzp said in Worst All Black RWC exits:
@rotated said in Worst All Black RWC exits:
Tactically keeping possession playing for the try/penalty was the right call IMO
100% this. The thing that was such an aberration was the way that Rugby was being reffed at the time led to a bit of a penalty fest... almost always for the team in possession. It's simplistic to point at a forward pass as the key moment, and so the media and plenty of the public do that. But the real scandal there was the ref swallowing the whistle.
The good news is that I think these days that game gets reffed differently - and there's no way the forward pass stands
I partly agree, but some of the selections were questionable when it came to a tight RWC knockout match. The bench that had Leonard, Masoe, Toeava - all were a bit deer in the headlights. Why not select Howlett?
We were so arrogant we put him in the stands to trial Rok and Siv to see who the other wing should be. Ridiculous in hindsight.
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@rapido said in Worst All Black RWC exits:
@dogmeat said in Worst All Black RWC exits:
@rotated Other than that we 'd beaten the Boks in SA in 92 and in NZ in 94,beaten the Lions in 93, had a record against Oz of 2-1-2 since the 91 RWC having drawn the last match in Sydney , had lost narrowly to England away with an under strength team and should have drawn the series against France in 04 but for the "try from the ends of the earth"
95 was probably the most even comp (pre the tournament) there's ever been. I still rated OZ the #1 because they'd given us the hardest matches and were reigning champs, SA at home were going to be a threat but I still fancied us. I didn't rate the Poms at all (the year didn't end in a 3). France were France and should have been in the final.
The reality was Lomu came good, Bachop came back and the debutants, Mehrts, Kronfeld and Osborne were the missing components that made for an outstanding team.
We'd lost our last test matches (or drawn in SA case) against every one of the other 1995 favourites. 1994 was the 3rd worst year in NZ rugby history up to that point (probably still is). (Edit: No, 1998 bumps it down to 4th worse)
NZ were a shambles who started to get it right about 1 month before the tournament.
I agree it was an even comp, though. But only the more anorak of NZ fans could have felt an inkling of something good in about April 1995. For most fans and media, it was more revisionist.
I was one of those anoraks, but I knew only one other bloke at work or the rugby club who shared my optimism.
My thoughts were based around excitement about the noobs like Osborne, Lomu, Mehrts, Kronfeld ...
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@victor-meldrew said in Worst All Black RWC exits:
@junior said in Worst All Black RWC exits:
@nzzp said in Worst All Black RWC exits:
@kiwimurph said in Worst All Black RWC exits:
On the flip side though I found the adulation of Hansen a bit too much post RWC Semi final loss - the 3rd/4th match was like a farewell tour and there was next to no criticism of him/ABs after a stuttering last few years.
He wanted to go in 2017, and I was stoked at the time that he stayed on. In hindsight, it would have been a good break - a dodgily drawn Lions series ravaged by injuries ... but at least not a loss. RWC was a bridge too far, and I think a lot of the people (team and coaches) got stale.
Agreed that in hindsight, Shag should have gone then. We would still have bombed out of the RWC 2019 in the semis (or maybe even earlier), but at least Fozzie's time would have been done and dusted and we'd have a different (and hopefully more competent coach) now
On the other hand, Foster might have picked Cane in the starting XV and we'd have been in the Final with a chance of winning 3 in a row.
Foster would have been nailed on for years...
Winning the RWC would have bought him a lot of capital, and well earned
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@gibbonrib said in Worst All Black RWC exits:
@rapido said in Worst All Black RWC exits:
@dogmeat said in Worst All Black RWC exits:
@rotated Other than that we 'd beaten the Boks in SA in 92 and in NZ in 94,beaten the Lions in 93, had a record against Oz of 2-1-2 since the 91 RWC having drawn the last match in Sydney , had lost narrowly to England away with an under strength team and should have drawn the series against France in 04 but for the "try from the ends of the earth"
95 was probably the most even comp (pre the tournament) there's ever been. I still rated OZ the #1 because they'd given us the hardest matches and were reigning champs, SA at home were going to be a threat but I still fancied us. I didn't rate the Poms at all (the year didn't end in a 3). France were France and should have been in the final.
The reality was Lomu came good, Bachop came back and the debutants, Mehrts, Kronfeld and Osborne were the missing components that made for an outstanding team.
We'd lost our last test matches (or drawn in SA case) against every one of the other 1995 favourites. 1994 was the 3rd worst year in NZ rugby history up to that point (probably still is). (Edit: No, 1998 bumps it down to 4th worse)
NZ were a shambles who started to get it right about 1 month before the tournament.
I agree it was an even comp, though. But only the more anorak of NZ fans could have felt an inkling of something good in about April 1995. For most fans and media, it was more revisionist.
That's interesting. I read somewhere that the All Blacks were favourites going into every single RWC except for 1987. This was in the build up to 2011, so at that point it would have meant that the only one you'd won was the only one you weren't expected to win. Sounds like that might have been bollocks.
Yeah, the "always favourites" tag was a convenient sledge to whack us fanatics with.
It was close enough to the truth to hurt. (
Given we were weak in '91 and '99 and shouldn't have been but probably were.
In the '95 case it's mis-remembered as we were raging hot favourites by the time of the final, but not prior to the tourny.
Edit: oh yeah, as @Rapido points out 2003 England were clear favourites.
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@booboo said in Worst All Black RWC exits:
@gibbonrib said in Worst All Black RWC exits:
@rapido said in Worst All Black RWC exits:
@dogmeat said in Worst All Black RWC exits:
@rotated Other than that we 'd beaten the Boks in SA in 92 and in NZ in 94,beaten the Lions in 93, had a record against Oz of 2-1-2 since the 91 RWC having drawn the last match in Sydney , had lost narrowly to England away with an under strength team and should have drawn the series against France in 04 but for the "try from the ends of the earth"
95 was probably the most even comp (pre the tournament) there's ever been. I still rated OZ the #1 because they'd given us the hardest matches and were reigning champs, SA at home were going to be a threat but I still fancied us. I didn't rate the Poms at all (the year didn't end in a 3). France were France and should have been in the final.
The reality was Lomu came good, Bachop came back and the debutants, Mehrts, Kronfeld and Osborne were the missing components that made for an outstanding team.
We'd lost our last test matches (or drawn in SA case) against every one of the other 1995 favourites. 1994 was the 3rd worst year in NZ rugby history up to that point (probably still is). (Edit: No, 1998 bumps it down to 4th worse)
NZ were a shambles who started to get it right about 1 month before the tournament.
I agree it was an even comp, though. But only the more anorak of NZ fans could have felt an inkling of something good in about April 1995. For most fans and media, it was more revisionist.
That's interesting. I read somewhere that the All Blacks were favourites going into every single RWC except for 1987. This was in the build up to 2011, so at that point it would have meant that the only one you'd won was the only one you weren't expected to win. Sounds like that might have been bollocks.
Yeah, the "always favourites" tag was a convenient sledge to whack us fanatics with.
It was close enough to the truth to hurt. (
Given we were weak in '91 and '99 and shouldn't have been but probably were.
In the '95 case it's mis-remembered as we were raging hot favourites by the time of the final, but not prior to the tourny.
Edit: oh yeah, as @Rapido points out 2003 England were clear favourites.
Laurie chopped and changed the team in the year before the run up, and caught lightning in a bottle just at the right time. His team formed the basis of the peerless 1996 tour to SA
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@canefan @Rapido
I was with @booboo - Mains' team only lacked a first 5 nd I hoped that Mehrts was the man - although I still favoured Oz.NZ are always going to be favourites because ithose reports are based on TAB oddsa and they reflect the money going on the AB's not their relative strength.
I had us as favourites in 07, 11 and 15.
87 - hadn't a clue. Was overseas and didn't know much about NZ rugby state
91 and 95 Oz
99 - after 98 No way but gave us a shout
03 Poms
19 Like 99 Hope rather than expectation. Hopes that rose after QF - Expected a SA / NZ final that could go either way.
