EOYT 2017
-
@act-crusader said in EOYT 2017:
@Chris-B I reckon Savea has done his dash.
Indeed. He plays one position at international level: starting left wing. If he ain't starting, he ain't selected.
Ioane has been better than I expected, he's undroppable at the moment. The ABs hardly ever take 2 specialist 11s.
Savea must regret his long-term deal, I reckon he might even be given compassionate release. He would coin it in France especially I would think, they love a big Polynesian weapon on the wing.
-
Initial thoughts.
Given the number out in back three (BFA/Dagg/NMS/Barrett (J)) and loss of Franks (O)/Moody I suspect 21 forwards and 16 backs.
Three hookers and five locks pick themselves. I expect six props, with Moli in team proper: not sure how he's traveled in Mitre 10 after foot injury healed. LH back up is wide open, with Tim Perry mentioned and Manu still around, albeit seems to be off boil. That leaves seven loosies. Cane/Savea (A)/Squire/Kaino/Fifita/Read seem certs, which leaves a straight choice between Todd, who's certainly done whatever asked of him, or Ioane (A), who's the man for the future.
In backs more open. Will TKB get send off? For me better to develop. Weber was in mix previously, but seems a big drop after top three. Is Dmac taken as third first five, or does Mo'unga get the French BaaBaa's game? Too early, but I like the look of Perofeta. Ioane (R)/Haveli/Naholo locked in. Savea (J) played versus Lions, so would be obvious choice. Think Seta T has been disgarded. Big chance for a bolter.
Midfield is the real area which needs strengthening. I'd take seven first fives/back threes, which would allow six in midfield. Four incumbents, to which I'd add Ngatai (who CAN pass) and Goodhue. -
@pakman So let's try and make a list
Prop(6): Ofa, Crockett, Laulala, Hames, +2 newcomers
Hooker(3): Coles, Taylor, Harris
Lock(5): BBBR, Whitelock, Barrett, Romano, Tuipolotu
Loose(7): Read, Cane, Kaino, Squire, Savea, Todd, FifitaHalfback(3) Smith, TJP, TKB (I don't think anyone else is beating down the door yet)
1st5 (2) BB, Sops
Midfield(6): SBW, Crotty, ALB, Laumape, +2 (Ngatai, Goodhue)
Outside backs(5): DMac, Naholo, Havili, Ioane, +1 (Savea, Seta T, Li, A N Other?)They may be thinking very hard about who else may offer a 14/15 fullback/wing option. I don't see too many around.
-
-
-
@tim If we thought DMac was horrible to start with....shit oh dear.
I'd be thinking they'll lean towards one of Savea or Tamanivalu for having been in the environment, then look at a young(ish) gun like Duffie, Nanai, Alaimalo, Bridge - except Bridge isn't from the Blues region, so I probably shouldn't mention him, especially with the Crusaders bias around here.
-
-
@crucial I really can't see Li as being anything other than waaaaaay down the list.
Yeah, I'm not pumping for him, just throwing possibilities in there.
As for Li, I assume that they have looked at him quite a bit and seen that he is frustrating in that his high level of skills in some areas are overshadowing zero improvement in others (such as workload). He is the current version of Savea without the test experience.
I wonder if, given the current injury situation, that Lowe would have come into the picture if he wasn't leaving. At least you know he works well in combination with DMac, has a great boot and offers a wing/ fullback option. -
Big fan of Duffie. Reckon he could excel at test rugby if given the chance. Would also like to see Buckmann given a crack. Another player who I think would thrive at test level.
-
@rancid-schnitzel I like Buckman but his performances at wing/fullback have been a little underwhelming this year for me, he's a superb midfielder though and I guess no reason why his style wouldn't work in the AB's.
-
@rancid-schnitzel said in EOYT 2017:
Big fan of Duffie. Reckon he could excel at test rugby if given the chance. Would also like to see Buckmann given a crack. Another player who I think would thrive at test level.
Duffie is certainly a possibility. I wonder if his age becomes an issue though if deciding between him and someone with more long term possibilities.
I get the feeling that whoever gets slotted into the back three options on this tour will be either an experienced player coming back in or a stop gap measure (or both).
I think DMac's performance last game has made them re-think whether he can be a long term international 15 and that maybe they should be looking for another 10 to develop such as Mounga or Perofuture. -
@rancid-schnitzel said in EOYT 2017:
Big fan of Duffie. Reckon he could excel at test rugby if given the chance. Would also like to see Buckmann given a crack. Another player who I think would thrive at test level.
Duffie is certainly a possibility. I wonder if his age becomes an issue though if deciding between him and someone with more long term possibilities.
I get the feeling that whoever gets slotted into the back three options on this tour will be either an experienced player coming back in or a stop gap measure (or both).
I think DMac's performance last game has made them re-think whether he can be a long term international 15 and that maybe they should be looking for another 10 to develop such as Mounga or Perofuture.27 isn't too old. Cory Jane must have been about the same age when he first played in black.
-
@rancid-schnitzel said in EOYT 2017:
@rancid-schnitzel said in EOYT 2017:
Big fan of Duffie. Reckon he could excel at test rugby if given the chance. Would also like to see Buckmann given a crack. Another player who I think would thrive at test level.
Duffie is certainly a possibility. I wonder if his age becomes an issue though if deciding between him and someone with more long term possibilities.
I get the feeling that whoever gets slotted into the back three options on this tour will be either an experienced player coming back in or a stop gap measure (or both).
I think DMac's performance last game has made them re-think whether he can be a long term international 15 and that maybe they should be looking for another 10 to develop such as Mounga or Perofuture.27 isn't too old. Cory Jane must have been about the same age when he first played in black.
I realise that. I guess what I am getting at is that they can only work with a certain number in the back three pool and already have Dagg and Bender in the 'unlikely for 2023' basket along with the knowledge that others can hit the back three wall like Savea did.
I get the feeling they like a certain number of understudies in the mix to have the right experience levels come RWC time. If there was a youngster to bring forward (eg another Ioane) they may prefer to take that gamble rather than put effort into someone that is likely to be a one RWC player at best.
If only looking at the here and now then I agree that he is a good option.EDIT: Just checked and CJ was 25 on debut and lasted 6 years until 31
-
Just checked Izzy Dagg and he is on 7 yrs service. At 29 currently he has a possibility of making his second RWC squad at 31.
Bender is already 31 with 8 years in black and looking at the RWC at age 33Last RWC there were only 4 outside backs taken with BB being a 10/15 extra.
If a similar approach is in the plans for Japan then DMac would hopefully take that 10/15 spot.
Given that Bender and Ioane are probably lock ins, that leaves two other spots for Dagg, NMS, Havili, Naholo, Savea, JB and whoever appears late in the piece.
-
I wonder if they might try and develop another lock on this tour. Someone like Sam Lousi comes to mind and someone such as Sam Whitelock has had an enormous workload this season - could potentially use a break? Or if Brodie R still isnt mentally right to play.
With halfbacks it is worth considering it isnt impossible that Aaron Smith could be punished further for his off field stuff and with TKB off it only leaves Perenara.
-
@pakman So let's try and make a list
Prop(6): Ofa, Crockett, Laulala, Hames, +2 newcomers
Hooker(3): Coles, Taylor, Harris
Lock(5): BBBR, Whitelock, Barrett, Romano, Tuipolotu
Loose(7): Read, Cane, Kaino, Squire, Savea, Todd, FifitaHalfback(3) Smith, TJP, TKB (I don't think anyone else is beating down the door yet)
1st5 (2) BB, Sops
Midfield(6): SBW, Crotty, ALB, Laumape, +2 (Ngatai, Goodhue)
Outside backs(5): DMac, Naholo, Havili, Ioane, +1 (Savea, Seta T, Li, A N Other?)They may be thinking very hard about who else may offer a 14/15 fullback/wing option. I don't see too many around.
I think they've had Jeff Toomaga-Allen travelling to Argentina and SA, so he's pretty likely as third tighthead.
Hansen noted that the loosehead pool is very shallow and called up Tim Perry, so he may have the inside running. With Goodes, DLB and Edmonds all out, the most credible alternatives are probably Paulasi Manu and Mitchell Graham - not sure why Perry would have been called in ahead of them though, unless they were injured at the time. TP doesn't seem a convincing option to me.
I don't see the point in taking TKB on a farewell tour if both of Smith and Perenara are fit.
I'd also take Mo'unga as a third first five. I think he's clearly better than the alternative first fives including DMac.
So, five midfielders and five outside backs. Given that we already have Ben Smith, Dagg, NMS, Jordie and even Savea in the mix as specialist outside backs, I don't know that it's critical to be developing additional options, so wouldn't be averse to them taking Ngatai or Seta primarily to play on the wing. Leaves them very thin in the wing/fullback role, though - so maybe Duffie - or Faddes or Bridge? None of the options really appeal.
