How are the AB's tracking heading into the BIL series?
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@Billy-Tell said in How are the AB's tracking heading into the BIL series?:
Very few Qs.
- Has Jordie replaced DMac as the 10/15 super-sub squad option?
I don't think DMac has ever been in contention to sub at 10 has he? In both tests he's played in we've had a specialist first five on the bench.
I don't think I've ever seen Jordie playing 10 and DMac, as I noted on another thread, has probably started no more than five first class games there. I'd be pretty surprised if either of them are in the first five frame.
Gollum's point about "what if we lose the first test with Beaudy having a goalkicking nightmare?" is one that occurred to me. In that case, it's possible they might try to shoehorn DMac or Jordie into the team at fullback or wing, but I think more likely that BB goes to the bench and Cruden or Sopoaga takes the helm.
Overall, I'm a bit inclined to think that - at best - one of DMac or Jordie makes the squad and quite possibly neither - unless both Dagg and NMS are unavailable.
Last year they named a 32 man squad for the three Wales tests, so I'd imagine it will be pretty close to that again. Fitness permitting, I reckon the 1st test match-day team will look pretty close to:
Moody, Coles, Franks, Retallick, Whitelock, Kaino, Cane, Read, Smith, Barrett, Savea, Crotty, SBW, Dagg, Smith
Crockett, Taylor, Faumuina, Romano, Savea, Perenara, Cruden, Lienert-BrownI reckon the starting eight is set in stone and the only real question mark in the reserve forwards is Romano - who might be edged out by another lock or Squire.
In the backs there's more question marks - Smith/Perenara is a tough call. I'd go with Smith even though I think TJ is actually the incumbent.
Midfield - lots of options. I'm inclined to think they'll go with Crotty and, given there's still plenty of time for SBW to find his feet and I expect him to (and I can't see him being left out of the squad), I'd like to see him used at centre. But it could be SBW/ALB or Crotty/ALB or even Crotty/Fekitoa.
Right wing - both Dagg and NMS are injured. Seems unlikely NMS will have enough games to force his way in, so I'm inclined to think if fit it will be Israel.
Anyway, that's 23 selections and then you slot in at least nine (maybe 10 or 11) more. These will include IMO Squire, Kerr-Barlow, Sopoaga, Fekitoa, another hooker, another lock, probably two props, another loose forward and another outside back.
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I'm a Chiefs and Waikato boy, but I thought Damian McKenzie looked very nervous when he played for the ABs. That might not matter to a lock, say, who can just get on with his core duties, but a nervous fullback is a major problem. The last time I recall seeing anyone look more nervous was Adrian Cashmore, and he never cracked it as a result.
I can't see him getting selected at all.
Jordy Barrett plays for likely the best team in the competition. He's had a charmed run recently, and I would want to see him play quite a lot more. It's not like Beauden was an instant success.
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I would have thought if Jordie was selected , it might just as much , if not more about getting him into the system with an eye to the future , than for what he could bring now , but I could be wrong with that
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@Kirwan That's a possibility too - though I like Crotty at second five more than centre.
What I really like about my plan is that SBW/Crotty looks a fair bit like Nonu/Smith - whereas Crotty/SBW is a different look and might give the Lions' analysts more to think about. Though this may be a bullshit theory...
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Seems most agree with my opening post... clearly the AB's ain't too hard to pick at present.
Beauden Barrett starts in this team regardless of whether he loses the first test based on goal-kicking... he'll be at full back in the 2nd test if the selector think its an issue, theres waaaaay too much upside to him starting now.
Hes playing better Super Rugby on cheat mode - looks to be a bazillion times better than last yearCruden will come off the bench, they won't risk J.Barrett or DMac as 10 cover in a million years vs BIL.
Which brings me to J.Barrett, I could see him as midfield/wing/15 cover from the bench, basically he offers more that DMac - size, more positions, understanding with BB, although gut says SBW gets bench for Test 1.0I like DMac, hes awesome at Super rugby, I just can't see him becoming a regular AB with Beaudy there for the next 2 RWC's and Ben Smith into J.Barrett over that time frame. (I would like to see a JB/ALB combo one day - wowwee - love to see what Laumape and ALB looks like as well)
If Dagg doesn't make it back to full form and fitness, this is when I think selection gets interesting. Ben Smith is a nailed on starter, but I can see the selectors moving him to 14 to accomodate J.Barrett at the back (then goal-kicking is no longer an issue)
I can't see them going for two power wings in Naholo and J.SaveaHow good is it that most AB's are also playing well at the moment, and NZ Super Rugby is hitting some what of a purple patch.
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If the ABs pick 3 1st-fives, who will be the third? I'd say BB and AC are locks, but I've been disappointed with Sopoaga this season, hasn't really kicked on, not helped by injury. I'd say he'd still get the 3rd spot, but Mo'unga must be breathing down his neck, or else the utility options like Jordie Barrett or (a lot) less likely Damian McKenzie. I can't remember if Jordie can play 10??
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Only a few question marks for me...
1 Moody
2 Taylor
3 Franks
4 Romano
5 Whitelock
6 S Barrett
7 Todd
8 Read
9 ???
10 ???
11 ???
12 BNZ
13 Crotty
14 Dagg
15 J Barrett -
@Billy-Tell Fitness permitting Sopoaga will be picked over Mounga for the Lions series and it's not really close. Simply put Sopoaga is just further along the development path. Sopoaga has been put to the test at Ellis Park on debut and come through positively. He has also delivered come Super playoff time - winning a Super Rugby title/3 consecutive playoff games.
Mounga has played 1 Super Rugby playoff game where his team were on the backfoot from the get go and got smashed in Africa and he won't get any playoff rugby in pre-Lions series. I think Richie is developing very nicely and a real chance for the End of Year tour but Lima has been with the ABs 2 seasons now - he's fairly entrenched (especially with Cruden leaving soon)
@ACT-Crusader Good to see you rolling out the same joke. I hope to see this continue alongside the Ardie height jokes and team name Thursday jokes just to name a couple.
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Richie won't make the ABs unless the plague hits the squad. Barrett, Cruden, Lima, Dagg and then daylight.
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@KiwiMurph I'll be here all season
Very surprised to hear people talking about Mo'unga. Even I couldn't find a spot for him in my team
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Stuff.co.nz: History shows ABs must seriously consider Jordie Barrett for first Lions test because... Israel Folau.
How do they come up with this shit?
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@KiwiMurph said in How are the AB's tracking heading into the BIL series?:
@Unco I think that article was written for the Sydney Morning Herald so therefore is geared towards that market.
Don't they usually post the source down the bottom of the article when they do that?
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@Unco said in How are the AB's tracking heading into the BIL series?:
Stuff.co.nz: History shows ABs must seriously consider Jordie Barrett for first Lions test because... Israel Folau.
How do they come up with this shit?
What do they mean ? whats the connection ?
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@kiwiinmelb Folau debuted in the first Lions test, and scored a couple of tries.
Therefore - if Jordie debuts in Lions#1 - he'll score a couple of tries.
Logic. -
@Kruse said in How are the AB's tracking heading into the BIL series?:
@kiwiinmelb Folau debuted in the first Lions test, and scored a couple of tries.
Therefore - if Jordie debuts in Lions#1 - he'll score a couple of tries.
Logic.Because thats how it works
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I'd also like to stress, if anybody else goes to stuff looking for that article (for a laugh)... AVOID Mark Reason's attempt at humour (something about armageddon when Lions win).
It's fucking atrocious, my eyes started bleeding very early on, and I skimmed the rest searching for anything redeeming. There's nothing.
