All Blacks 2024
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@brodean Well - to be blunt - I reckon Caleb will score really well on your metric.
He's got lots of tries, lots of clean breaks, lots of defenders beaten, he's out on the wing, so he's probably won a few turnovers where defenders are isolated (a la Tavatavanawai) and no-one makes many dominat tackles.
As I pointed out last week, the predictive value of your model is - unfortunately - close to nil.
What does Caleb score?
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@Chris said in All Blacks 2024:
@brodean said in All Blacks 2024:
I'm not claiming it's a bible but you should be able to get an indication and support of an idea in stats but there isn't any indication in these stats that support the negative comments about Savea . There is nothing to suggest that Savea has been poor, dropping the ball more than others, and lacking impact. There's plenty to support that for Sam Cane.
Cane has been poor for me no doubt but Savea has too .
Scott Robertson needs to use his bench earlier. Give the players 25-30 minutes from the bench not 15-20 minutes. When our bench comes on, the opposition bench has already gained momentum and finish stronger. Playing forwards beyond 60 minutes is poor coaching. Robertson need to be questioned and challenged by the media on his bench timing.
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@brodean said in All Blacks 2024:
Total Impacts Per 80 Minutes 2025
(Impacts) tries + try assists + clean breaks + offloads + defenders beaten + turnovers won + dominant tacklesForwards
8.16 Sititi
6.39 Savea
5.19 Aumua
4.75 Finau
3.74 Darry
3.46 TaylorThat's top 6. Some how Savea has done nothing while Taylor has done it all.
That’s some crystal ball you’re rocking.
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@brodean said in All Blacks 2024:
Both Aumua, and Finau have helped us get our only wins this year against a top 5 team.
Who is your loose forward trio?
Would you have at hooker instead of Aumua?
It's a team game, being in a winning side doesn't mean you played well at all.
I would have picked both Finau and Aumua in the squad, and have been advocating for Aumua to get more minutes because I think he's a much better player than he has been showing.
Fact is, the impact stat is pretty meaningless.I'm really liking Sititi's work, I think he'd go pretty well at 7 (and obviously 8 ) too. But I want to see what Hoskins can do at 8. He has skills which are really unusual for a forward - and we need some size which he has, and Finau isn't there (yet, I hope). He was the best player in Super rugby, and while plenty of people seem to want to belittle the comp, it's what we've got and most of the guys who looked good in Super are looking good now.
Not really sure who my 3rd loosie would be, and what would be best for the balance, need another workrate player with Hoskins there (not a criticism, Read and Zinzan weren't workrate players), and a workrate tackler as Wallace is a good tackler but more of a runner - and it probably depends a bit on the opposition. Maybe Savea at 7, maybe Blackadder at 6 or 7 - and either of them as the bench loosie would work.
I'm not a Jacobson fan - good player, but one dimensional, gives away a lot of penalties and is just a Cane replica for me. Dalton likewise: he's good, but has never really struck me as more than a really able back-up and I want something special in the 7 black shirt. There's obviously some interesting young fellas coming through in Lakai etc too.
I do think a little more attention should go towards horses for courses, because I hardly think it's coaching genius to see Sam Cane is always going to be shit in fast open games, in the same way he is very valuable in tight forward-oriented games where people need smashing close in. -
We've all seen Savea hasn't been great this year. He wasn't awful, but by the standards we expect from him, he was well below par.
All these stats show that stats in rugby don't really mean a lot.
For example how does Finau's condeded maul penalty against the Springboks (so stupid, Scott Barrett in 2019 would have been proud of it) factor into the stats equation? Exactly, it doesn't. But stuff like this is why he gets some deserved shit. -
There is a lot of glass half empty comments on here, so I'm going to buck the trend of my entire life and be the half full bloke for once.
Granted, I've only seen the highlights on the weekend, but it was a 5 tries to one drubbing against a team that traditionally lifts against us. And for the first time this tournament, we did manage to score in the last 20. That was the most glaringly obvious problem through the first 5 rounds.
Reality is that we managed to match the Boks for a lot of the two games we played over there. This is the globally lauded team being spoken of in many circles as one of the best Bok teams ever. Yes, we lost 2-0, and we leaked far too many points for my liking, but we fronted up, showed that we have the players in place to build on & found a couple of potential long-term All Blacks as well.
The old guard is stuttering, but it's the year post WC and the old guard had to take on new leadership roles to replace the lost experience & caps. Having them in the team for a year to show the new boys how it's done from a team perspective is no bad thing. They may go EOYT, but Cane & TJ are clearly both done. Savea I think will be fine and I back him to bounce back. Beauden Barrett I think Robertson is a bit unsure how to use, and honestly speaking, I'm with him there. Is there a place for him in the team? Jury out. Scott Barrett hasn't been at his 2023 form, but he did take on the captaincy and the leadership that comes with it. Richie's first year as Captain was sub-standard as well.
First 5 is an issue, as although McKenzie hasn't done bad, he will always play as McKenzie (as he should) and I'm not sold that is world number 1 / championship winning style. He has more flair than almost all of the great flyhalfs, but doesn't, and never has had, the game controlling ability. If we want that flair, we have to accept that. I am somewhat surprised that Plummer didn't get given a shot, but realistically it could only have happened in Bled 2 and I guess Robertson wanted to see if BB still has it.
Backrow may be a bit messy, but Sititi has been found, thoughts on Savea are above. Blackadder has been ok, just not amazing, although I think this forum is really the only place where his amazeballs ability was generated (by some). Yes, I personally would have selected Sotutu & probably Ioane too, but the jury is out if either would have been as good as Sititi has been.
Jordan is looking like himself again, and Caleb Clarke had a decent run. Ratima did well and we've still got Roigard (in my view, our next Smith) to return. That just leaves the centres. Thats where the biggest issue lies for me. Jordie had a bang average run & I still think Rieko is better out wide. But ALB is solid, Procter didn't get much opportunities so the cupboard isn't bare.
Mentality is clearly the biggest problem as we often went from brilliant to headless chickens in the sheds at half time. That is what needs to be resolved, and some guidance from the professor will surely help out.
All in all, not a great RC, still came second though & never got dominated for an entire match.
Solid base to build on.
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@brodean said in All Blacks 2024:
I'm not claiming it's a bible but you should be able to get an indication and support of an idea in stats but there isn't any indication in these stats that support the negative comments about Savea . There is nothing to suggest that Savea has been poor, dropping the ball more than others, and lacking impact. There's plenty to support that for Sam Cane.
Look, I don’t want to labour the point too much because it’s getting a bit boring, but fuck it I will a little bit more.
The reason that “there is nothing to suggest that Savea has been poor, dropping the ball more than others”….is because….wait for it….you’ve bloody well excluded dropping the ball from your ludicrous “impact score”!
He dropped it 3 times in contact in B1 alone! Nobody else did this.
How about you take your formula that currently just adds good stuff, and adjust it for some bad stuff? Drops, isolations, being bundled into touch, missed cleans, ruck leans (what about the rhyme there!), weak tackles etc - and then add a little nuance from the eye test.
He has not been playing well. It’s not a slight on the man or his career, just a fairly obvious observation of his current form.
He needs a rest, and when he returns, he should not be our starting 8
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I've already mentioned he should get a rest.
He conceded 3 turnovers in that game. Well so did Mckenzie and Ioane.
Savea also made more carries (22) than any All Black in that game. He made more tackles (16) than any other All Black too. He scored a try. Made 53 metres, won 2 turnovers, and won a couple of lineouts. You're only looking at what he did wrong and not what he did right.
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@Jet said in All Blacks 2024:
@Mr-Fish said in All Blacks vs Wallabies 2:
@Jet said in All Blacks vs Wallabies 2:
@brodean said in All Blacks vs Wallabies 2:
I'm not convinced that Razor's game plan will bring the results we want against Ireland, France, and South Africa.
Won’t be beating England at the cabbage patch either.
We don’t have any gain line muscle for the tight games.
Ireland England and France are going to be attritional with a good chance of wet weather.
This team doesn’t have the stomach for it.
We concede ground so easily.Entry into our 22 is almost a guaranteed score or yellow card these days.
The team did ok against the Springboks in South Africa. And against England in NZ in July when the weather was similar.
These teams grow an arm and a leg at home.
England at Twickenham is never easy.
Ireland are really well coached, will be on a vendetta after the RWC and it will be a raucous Friday night in Dublin.
France have olympic gold and European Cup winning Dupont.I personally think we lose all 3 games, as if England turn us over I feel the heads will drop for the subsequent 2 games.
I think all three games will be really close and genuinely think how we perform is as important as the result.
Tough tour which could be the making of a core team.
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@nostrildamus said in All Blacks vs Wallabies 2:
But I have to concur, Ioane's passing is at risk of being difficult and inaccurate. He seems slow to note others nearby and his instinct is still not to distribute. A shame, he was a tiger on defence (and so was ALB near the end of the game).
He's a weapon on the wing.
Sititi has a great ability to think and pass under pressure. Aware where others are. -
Should Williams start?
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This post is deleted!
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@brodean said in All Blacks 2024:
I've already mentioned he should get a rest.
He conceded 3 turnovers in that game. Well so did Mckenzie and Ioane.
Savea also made more carries (22) than any All Black in that game. He made more tackles (16) than any other All Black too. He scored a try. Made 53 metres, won 2 turnovers, and won a couple of lineouts. You're only looking at what he did wrong and not what he did right.
22 carries for 53m = 2.4m per carry
16 tackles with 0 dominantThe phrase "busy but ineffective" springs to mind
Also, it's hard to trust the stats when it says he has zero missed tackles - do I then have to assume that the one where he cuddled Paisami as he ran through his shoulder to score a try counted as a made tackle???
Anyway, don't think we will close the gap of opinion on how he's playing here, so will move along.
Cheers
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@BerniesCorner said in All Blacks 2024:
Should Williams start?
No. EDG was a bit down on match sharpness, but the dynamic of him starting with Williams providing impact has worked well for the last couple of years.
Can lock in the starting front row with Williams, Newell and probably Aumua to come on off the bench. I liked what Tosi brought, but I think those big NH tests come too soon for him, and his weakness in the scrum could be exposed.
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The argument for not playing Savea is fair, particularly as he could be an excellent impact sub... but I am also not convinced there is an obviously better replacement that we should tinker with this totally now... particularly with Cane retiring. If you benched Ardie as well, whatever happens the loose forwards will be very inexperienced, which is okay... but it has the potential to go wrong.
Ardie is guaranteed to give a certain level of performance - Ardie's worst game is probably better than say Sititi or Sotutu's worst game.
Assuming Sititi keeps progressing nicely, then by this time next year we could potentially build the loose forward trio around him. I think he will eventually move to 8, and IMO, to counteract that we need a huge blindside... Oli Haig will be in the NZ XV squad, and to me he looks like the obvious up and comer to balance it. That would give you room to play a defensive behemoth at 7... haven't looked at the stats close enough, but that could be Blackadder (please no), Papalii or Lakai. Savea then ready in 20 to come on for the last 25.
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@frugby said in All Blacks 2024:
The argument for not playing Savea is fair, particularly as he could be an excellent impact sub... but I am also not convinced there is an obviously better replacement that we should tinker with this totally now... particularly with Cane retiring. If you benched Ardie as well, whatever happens the loose forwards will be very inexperienced, which is okay... but it has the potential to go wrong.
Ardie is guaranteed to give a certain level of performance - Ardie's worst game is probably better than say Sititi or Sotutu's worst game.
Assuming Sititi keeps progressing nicely, then by this time next year we could potentially build the loose forward trio around him. I think he will eventually move to 8, and IMO, to counteract that we need a huge blindside... Oli Haig will be in the NZ XV squad, and to me he looks like the obvious up and comer to balance it. That would give you room to play a defensive behemoth at 7... haven't looked at the stats close enough, but that could be Blackadder (please no), Papalii or Lakai. Savea then ready in 20 to come on for the last 25.
I think Sititi probably outplayed Savea in each of the past four games so I'm not sure how true that is...
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@Mr-Fish said in All Blacks 2024:
@frugby said in All Blacks 2024:
Ardie is guaranteed to give a certain level of performance - Ardie's worst game is probably better than say Sititi or Sotutu's worst game.
I think Sititi probably outplayed Savea in each of the past four games so I'm not sure how true that is...
I'd argue this is Ardie at his worst though? And even still, his performances have been serviceable. The concern would be, if we say went Sititi, Papalii and Sotutu, there is less of a guarantee there. Could be awesome, but a lot of pressure on inexperienced players... only way I see them benching Ardie, is if they take Cane - and in that case, I think it is more likely they'd just play Ardie at 7.
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@BerniesCorner said in All Blacks vs Wallabies 2:
@nostrildamus said in All Blacks vs Wallabies 2:
But I have to concur, Ioane's passing is at risk of being difficult and inaccurate. He seems slow to note others nearby and his instinct is still not to distribute. A shame, he was a tiger on defence (and so was ALB near the end of the game).
He's a weapon on the wing.
Sititi has a great ability to think and pass under pressure. Aware where others are.If we pick Hoskins as well our loosies will literally have better ball skills than our midfield.
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@frugby said in All Blacks 2024:
Assuming Sititi keeps progressing nicely, then by this time next year we could potentially build the loose forward trio around him. I think he will eventually move to 8, and IMO, to counteract that we need a huge blindside... Oli Haig will be in the NZ XV squad, and to me he looks like the obvious up and comer to balance it. That would give you room to play a defensive behemoth at 7... haven't looked at the stats close enough, but that could be Blackadder (please no), Papalii or Lakai. Savea then ready in 20 to come on for the last 25.
I think someone mentioned Sititi had played more 7 than 6? I think that might be his best spot for our combinations, as he's not physically that large. In fact he's small for an international 6 or 8, so if you play him in one of those spots - as you say - you need at least one other loosie to be genuinely big.
Locking someone in and that meaning other positions must have certain attributes is exactly what has been wrong with our loosies for the past few years. Cane was locked in at 7 and captain, even though Ardie was the better 7. That meant Ardie moved to 8, then he got locked in. That meant we needed a big lineout blindside - so we got the underperforming Frizzell and no other options, and we were shit. Now we're even more shit, because two of them are still playing and they're both older and playing worse, our balance is still fucked so as a group they're getting outplayed on a weekly basis, and the only guy really killing it individually is a kid playing out of position.
I hope Haig is the next big thing, but to rely on someone that unproven for your balance is a huge stretch when NZ doesn't produce a lot of that style of player. Hoskins is my preference at 8 as he has dominated at super level and has international size. He lets you play Sititi / Lakai sized guys on the flank against the big teams because he is a genuine lineout forward, and a big lump. Hoskins won't play 80, but if you have Savea and Sititi in the mix then that's not a problem.
