RWC Week 4: All Blacks v Italy
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@stodders said in RWC Week 4: All Blacks v Italy:
@Victor-Meldrew Discipline. That is the big thing for me. The ABs are unable to exert sufficient pressure on their opponents for long enough without gifting a relieving penalty. Teams are waiting for the ABs to make a mistake or infringe. And they do.
100%. agree. It's been getting steadily worse since around 2016, improved a bit in 2022, huge improvement in this RC but in the last few games has fallen off a cliff.
Whatever switch Ryan, Foster & co flipped earlier this year needs to re-flipped.
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@Victor-Meldrew ABs are still trying to play an aerobic version of the game when the game has evolved to be more anaerobic. The way the ABs trained (explosive power and being athletic) was great when you could send one or two players into a breakdown to generate quick ball. You can rarely do that now.
Teams have to evolve to the way the laws are being applied by refs.
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Ball in air time is massively down (meaning teams can field bigger, less aerobic players knowing they won't get tired as easily). Attrition is the name of the game.
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defensive players are being given more leeway at the breakdown. Rucking (in a style) is back and is being rewarded if players stay on their feet. At worst, it allows defences to make a mess and slow ball down.
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teams that are happier playing without the ball and forcing mistakes through defensive pressure are getting more reward. The box kick is a great attacking platform if you can secure the ball as defences aren't necessarily set. Low risk play with a high reward if you come up with the ball.
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and finally, teams who kick best (not most, best) are generally getting more reward. Territory is king in the modern risk-averse game.
For me, Ireland are the best team right now because they can play an attritional set piece game if required and they have enough creativity to unlock defences, more through manipulation than a moment of genius. But most of all, they swarm their opponents, not giving them a moment to rest. That is where the ABs need to get back to.
ABs don't need to try to be like SA. Wrong type of cattle. ABs can certainly be as good as Ireland though. It just requires team cohesion, working partnerships in key parts of the team and a large dollop of mana to make everyone work that bit harder for each other. You can see in the Irish team that they would fight for the man to their side. It is a powerful advantage if you get it right.
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@Machpants said in RWC Week 4: All Blacks v Italy:
@Victor-Meldrew said in RWC Week 4: All Blacks v Italy:
@KiwiMurph said in RWC Week 4: All Blacks v Italy:
@Victor-Meldrew said in RWC Week 4: All Blacks v Italy:
The forwards seem to have gone backwards under Ryan - despite some bright spots. Their performance against the Boks at Twickenham was the worst I've seen in years.
I think it's a bit disingenuous to cherry pick a warm up game with zero riding on it as proof the forwards have gone backwards.
Warm-up game or not (and I'd argue no game against the Boks is a warm up game) it was still the worst forward display I've seen for years.
I watched the 2021 loss to France a week or so ago and the same problems were there in the opening game - lack of discipline, precision and ability to handle pressure - but for longer periods of the game.
The forwards are a hell of a lot better off under Ryan than they were under Plumtree.
Up until the last few weeks, I'd agree with you. But looking at the last few games and the debacle that was the 2nd half against England, I'm now not so sure. As I've said before, I hope they can get their RC mojo back.
Dude the effort in Oz vs Argentina was much worse
Against England we were 25-6 up with 10 minutes to go and effectively gave up. At least we tried to fight back against Argentina in Sydney. Whatever was wrong in the forwards back then still hasn't been fixed.
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@stodders said in RWC Week 4: All Blacks v Italy:
ABs don't need to try to be like SA. Wrong type of cattle. ABs can certainly be as good as Ireland though. It just requires team cohesion, working partnerships in key parts of the team and a large dollop of mana to make everyone work that bit harder for each other.
Totally agree.
But the key issue for me is still there: our inability to maintain focus for long periods of time - collective headspace. Fuck knows what the issue is or how to fix it, but it's been there since '16. Improves every now and then but invariably turns out to be a false dawn.
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@Wurzel said in RWC Week 4: All Blacks v Italy:
This is the same All Blacks team that’s lost twice to Argentina, coming up against the most talented Italian squad ever assembled.
If we are to ever lost to Italy, this would be the time. Crowley will have the Italians dialled right in for this.
I’ve actually watched the Italians play this WC and we are not losing to them. Anyone can freely quote this post back at me should we lose. 4TBP with room to spare (provided no idiotic red cards)
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@Yeahtheboys said in RWC Week 4: All Blacks v Italy:
Beauden Barrett is shit now. He’s lost his speed, doesn’t tackle and avoids contact and taking the ball to the line. He’s not a threat. Still a classy kicker or passer.
We need a threat at 15. Look at someone like Reece Walsh from the NRL. Fast, doesn’t avoid contact and ball playing, the triple threat to create opportunities.
Damian is our man. If fozzie moves Damian to 15 we become World Cup favourites. Would rather risk him making some errors for the chance that we can actually threaten on attack. Go down swinging with Damian instead of being comfortable and only losing by less than 20 with Beaudy.
FYI, Beauden is one of the best players I have seen in his prime. He is an all black legend and should always be remember as one. His time is done now.
Yes that’s right. Moving McKenzie to 15 will have all pundits powering us past Ire, SA and Fra as firm RWC favourites. Shhh. Don’t tell anyone our secret.
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NB. Modern rugby matches are decided by
Discipline
Breakdown
Set piece
Defence
Goal kicking
Kicking out of hand
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Who plays at 15 -
Who plays at 15
You need a Barratt**
**A three-sided instrument used by NZ coaches when selecting team positions "We weren't too sure who to select at 15 so we used a Barratt”
Just called the taxi....
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We are in the weird position of being on no-one's radar. Here is an excerpt from the Guardian...usually we are the team under pressure of expectation. This time it's mainly France and Ireland IMO.
"No one, to be clear, is remotely counting out the defending champions South Africa or the flying Fijians but there is a chance that France, Ireland, Wales and England could all make the last four."
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@Billy-Tell It's Foster's time to shine. I will get my hopes up for one more game.
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@stodders said in RWC Week 4: All Blacks v Italy:
@Victor-Meldrew Discipline. That is the big thing for me. The ABs are unable to exert sufficient pressure on their opponents for long enough without gifting a relieving penalty. Teams are waiting for the ABs to make a mistake or infringe. And they do.
For the ABs to advance much further, the penalty count cannot be above 10 (given what SA, France and Ireland are achieving right now), and they cannot lose a man to a yellow or red (obviously).
Fiji have managed ten or less four games in a row, which is Glen Jackson's focus. Look where it has got them
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Ireland have been the best team for the last couple of years as they have developed a system that everyone buys into, knows their roles and as you say, they have become a very close team where they will fight for each other and become more than the sum of their parts.
They are the most cohesive side in the world and have been for some time. They remind me of the early 2000s era Brumbies that revolutionised the game through their tactical system that had the ability to beat teams in various ways.
This can only happen if a side is completely well drilled and everyone has clarity on their role and trusts the system and each other.
It’s quite brilliant in truth and I have been in awe of them over the last 2 years as they have become a juggernaut of a side that has developed world class players through this system.
Can the ABs beat them? Yes of course. Any side has a chance in a one off match but it will take a Herculean effort to be able to do so and break them down.
What has been most dissapointing about the time since losing the series to Ireland last year is when you ask the question of who has improved the most since then?
Obviously the ABs needed to improve more than the Irish after they lost the series to them.
The ABS have shown improvement but it also appears that Ireland have improved more which is not what we would have expected.
The ABs have it all to do, are underdogs and we aren’t really sure how we will play if we are to beat the Irish.
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@DaGrubster after following different teams in different codes, it’s almost hard to explain in words when they have nailed that winning culture .
But it’s just like they are all so well connected and become one when it comes to executing the game plan, all on the same page together .
I think Penrith in the nrl are a great example.
Ireland look to have it, but in saying that , it’s never infallible, all teams still have an off day and can trip up.
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I don’t think it is a conscious thing, it is just something that happens through playing together winning together and finding ways to win together when perhaps they shouldn’t have.
It’s an intangible thing, much like the All Black aura. But Ireland certainly have this now.
Like many great AB sides have before them.
The current one doesn’t. That doesn’t mean they can’t win though.
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Few posts above that I agree with but couldn’t quote / reply to them all. I think the ABs stand a very decent chance of turning the Irish over in the QFs. You still have excellent forwards and excellent players and it isn’t that hard to imagine it clicking for you in a game or two. Good players don’t become bad overnight and given the current atmosphere it isn’t hard to imagine the ABs getting up and following instructions to win a game with lots of grunt / discipline and a little bit of razzle dazzle thrown in. You won the 3N for crying out loud
The difficulty for the ABs will be to do it three games in a row against excellent sides. I agree Ireland are the most consistently good, I think France are capable of a higher peak but without quite the same consistency and I think the Saffas beat most teams on most days. Who wins the final is anyone’s guess but if I was an AB fan I’d still very much believe it was possible.
England, of course, just aren’t very good
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One advantage we have is that Ireland effectively have 2 knockout matches before the qtr final.
The ABs have one against Italy.
Ireland going into a 3rd knock out match at the stage they have never got past before, May pray on their minds and mean they are a little off perhaps?
Ireland have the most hurdles to overcome out of all the teams, even France who have at least got to finals before.
There is a reason why the top nations win and almost monopolise world cups. In football, it’s Brazil, Germany, Italy, Argentina that have the mentality to do it even when they haven’t done it for 20 years.
In rugby it’s NZ, SA and Oz and once by England.
In netball it’s Oz and NZ.
It just seems that certain nations are supposed to win World cups. Whether it is IP, being the best side, expectation, holding their nerve, or something else.
It’s common across lots of sports - it will be incredibly hard for Ireland or France to win this World Cup for the first time.
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@Billy-Tell said in RWC Week 4: All Blacks v Italy:
NB. Modern rugby matches are decided by
Discipline
Breakdown
Set piece
Defence
Goal kicking
Kicking out of hand
…
…
…
Who plays at 15territory should be right near the top, and as well as discipline it is majorly impacted by who plays at 15.
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@DaGrubster said in RWC Week 4: All Blacks v Italy:
One advantage we have is that Ireland effectively have 2 knockout matches before the qtr final.
The ABs have one against Italy.
Ireland going into a 3rd knock out match at the stage they have never got past before, May pray on their minds and mean they are a little off perhaps?
Ireland have the most hurdles to overcome out of all the teams, even France who have at least got to finals before.
There is a reason why the top nations win and almost monopolise world cups. In football, it’s Brazil, Germany, Italy, Argentina that have the mentality to do it even when they haven’t done it for 20 years.
In rugby it’s NZ, SA and Oz and once by England.
In netball it’s Oz and NZ.
It just seems that certain nations are supposed to win World cups. Whether it is IP, being the best side, expectation, holding their nerve, or something else.
It’s common across lots of sports - it will be incredibly hard for Ireland or France to win this World Cup for the first time.
Because Wales are going to win it 😉
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When is the team really named?
