All Blacks 2023
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Or, alternatively
In teh quarter we will play Ireland, who will have to battle their QF demons
Or SA, who we have beaten already this yearWith a bunch of troops back on deck.
Win that and it's a semi everyone will expect us to win, and then it's the final, which always gets weird.
We are far from alone in our QF trepidation
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@taniwharugby said in All Blacks 2023:
@frugby well every one has permutations requiring on if we win this/that...when has it ever been certain? It aint certain for Ireland/SA/France who are all the favorites right now either.
I do believe we have a good chance, but all the stars need to align and we start playing more consistently instead of 10 or 20 min patches of good rugby.
There in lies the problem. How can we have a good chance, if we haven't shown in this four year cycle we can string two good halves together, let alone three high pressure games. We are hoping on a miracle, but we just aren't there. Miracles have rarely happened at the Rugby World Cup...
19' - South Africa, one of the best in the World
15' - New Zealand - the best
11' - New Zealand - World no. 1 + Home side
07' - South Africa, one of the best in the world
03' - England, one of the best in the world
99' - Australia, one of the best in the world
95' - South Africa, Home Nation
91' - Australia, best in the world
87' - New Zealand, one of the best in the world + home sideThere has not been a World Cup winner who weren't one of the best sides in the world, not playing to their best. It just won't happen.
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@frugby but looking at your evidence you say winners we 'one of the best' we are still 'one of the best'
Anyway, I dont care if you thnk we cant win, I think we have a good shot, probably not as good as the faves, so yeah.
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@frugby said in All Blacks 2023:
This is Ireland, South Africa or France's tournament. I'd probably give each roughly a 25% chance, NZ at more like 15% , England 6%, Australia 3%, Others 1%
Sounds close but I think France and SA in driving seat, France now a touch ahead of SA given Marx's exit...
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@taniwharugby said in All Blacks 2023:
@frugby but looking at your evidence you say winners we 'one of the best' we are still 'one of the best'
Anyway, I dont care if you thnk we cant win, I think we have a good shot, albeit with caveats above, so yeah.
By one of the best, I mean top three in the world. As far as I can tell, there hasn't been a side win the World Cup without either being the best in the world, or playing well. We aren't playing well, and haven't played well barring the odd game here or there in the past four year cycle.
We looked a million bucks to start the year, and then got mullered by South Africa. Started well vs France, then faded quicker than a tattoo from Bali...
That game vs South Africa didn't matter, but at the same time, All Blacks sides of the past wouldn't have copped such a pasting. They might have lost 13+, but they wouldn't have been destroyed.
All Blacks sides of the past would have turned that good start into points, and would have punished a France side who didn't set the world on fire. We are hoping to win the World Cup, but there is such little evidence to suggest we will I am afraid.
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@nostrildamus said in All Blacks 2023:
@frugby said in All Blacks 2023:
This is Ireland, South Africa or France's tournament. I'd probably give each roughly a 25% chance, NZ at more like 15% , England 6%, Australia 3%, Others 1%
Sounds close but I think France and SA in driving seat, France now a touch ahead of SA given Marx's exit...
Well of course New Zealand could win it, but I wouldn't describe us as having a good chance. If you isolate the quarter, semi and final, it is actually quite easy to make a convincing argument for us, but then when you consider that we have to do all three consecutively, there is nothing from the past four years to suggest we have a good chance.
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@frugby said in All Blacks 2023:
@nostrildamus said in All Blacks 2023:
@frugby said in All Blacks 2023:
This is Ireland, South Africa or France's tournament. I'd probably give each roughly a 25% chance, NZ at more like 15% , England 6%, Australia 3%, Others 1%
Sounds close but I think France and SA in driving seat, France now a touch ahead of SA given Marx's exit...
Well of course New Zealand could win it, but I wouldn't describe us as having a good chance. If you isolate the quarter, semi and final, it is actually quite easy to make a convincing argument for us, but then when you consider that we have to do all three consecutively, there is nothing from the past four years to suggest we have a good chance.
I agree with you on NZ, I'm just not so sure Ireland is level pegging with France (their hometown) or SA (their ferocity)..
Perhaps they are, they're pretty skilled to neutralizing other teams' strengths. -
@nostrildamus said in All Blacks 2023:
@frugby said in All Blacks 2023:
@nostrildamus said in All Blacks 2023:
@frugby said in All Blacks 2023:
This is Ireland, South Africa or France's tournament. I'd probably give each roughly a 25% chance, NZ at more like 15% , England 6%, Australia 3%, Others 1%
Sounds close but I think France and SA in driving seat, France now a touch ahead of SA given Marx's exit...
Well of course New Zealand could win it, but I wouldn't describe us as having a good chance. If you isolate the quarter, semi and final, it is actually quite easy to make a convincing argument for us, but then when you consider that we have to do all three consecutively, there is nothing from the past four years to suggest we have a good chance.
I agree with you on NZ, I'm just not so sure Ireland is level pegging with France (their hometown) or SA (their ferocity)..
Perhaps they are, they're pretty skilled to neutralizing other teams' strengths.I think that is fair debate... at some stage someone new will win the World Cup, but considering New Zealand could establish real dominance by 2027, and carry is through to 2031, with Australia, South Africa, France and even England with a young side also likely to be there, it is probably now or never for Ireland.
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the last four years? If that's what we are going off you can write South Africa off as well
Just this year they have lost to us, and scraped by a terrible Argentina at home
Last year they lost to Ireland and France and NZ and Australia
The year before they lost to us, Australia twice, the Lions, EnglandThey took 2020 off
Terrible form, can't put 3 good games together
I get we're not great. But pretty much no one on this Board expects us to win the cup, in fact i expect the QF poll to be almost historic for an AB test. What you are saying is not some groundbreaking news flash.
But we are not without hope, and right there on the 3rd line of betting i reckon. -
our last 4 games with south africa are 2-2 ,
in some ways i prefer them in a quarter , yes they are tough but we at least know whats coming,
Ireland remind me of playing the wallabies in the early 2000s where they would out play you from the coaches box
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The All Blacks are ‘hoping’ that Tyrell Lomax, Shannon Frizell and Jordie Barrett will all be available for the Italy game. No mention of Sam Cane.
Promising news on the injury front for the All Blacks
Defence coach Scott McLeod said the All Blacks suffered no injuries in the 71-3 victory over Namibia, and gave an update on those players who have not appeared in the tournament yet – prop Tyrel Lomax, flanker Shannon Frizell and second five-eighths Jordie Barrett.
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@Nepia said in All Blacks 2023:
@gt12 said in All Blacks 2023:
Blackadder has officially overtaken Ngatai as the player who gets better by not playing.
And we've created a new award the Frizell 20 good minutes in 5 years and now instant pick.
Desperate times
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@Nepia said in All Blacks 2023:
@gt12 said in All Blacks 2023:
Blackadder has officially overtaken Ngatai as the player who gets better by not playing.
And we've created a new award the Frizell 20 good minutes in 5 years and now instant pick.
that sounds more like Akira, Friz probably has 40 minutes to his name
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@bayimports said in All Blacks 2023:
@Nepia said in All Blacks 2023:
@gt12 said in All Blacks 2023:
Blackadder has officially overtaken Ngatai as the player who gets better by not playing.
And we've created a new award the Frizell 20 good minutes in 5 years and now instant pick.
that sounds more like Akira, Friz probably has 40 minutes to his name
There's no way the Fern anti Ioane brigade would ever hype up Akira - didn't he get MoTM in a test at one stage?
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@Nepia said in All Blacks 2023:
@bayimports said in All Blacks 2023:
@Nepia said in All Blacks 2023:
@gt12 said in All Blacks 2023:
Blackadder has officially overtaken Ngatai as the player who gets better by not playing.
And we've created a new award the Frizell 20 good minutes in 5 years and now instant pick.
that sounds more like Akira, Friz probably has 40 minutes to his name
There's no way the Fern anti Ioane brigade would ever hype up Akira - didn't he get MoTM in a test at one stage?
It was only Australia
