Rough tips and other bets...
-
Kentucky Derby goes Saturday.
My selections:
12 TAIBA 12-1
6 MESSIER 8-1
10 ZANDON 3-1
3 EPICENTER 7/2
15 WHITE ABBARIO 10-1If you can grab fixed odds at 12-1 on Taiba I would jump on it. Bit of a risk, the horse has only had two races, but was dominant in both, including last start win in Santa Anita Derby. Messier also good value. Zandon and Epicenter are good shots, but not at those prices. Morning-line on on White Abarrio is just right, I’ll keep my eye on him and jump on him anything above that odd.
-
He’s earning double his closest rival. Income below is prize-money %-only, does not include mount fees which run about $250-$300/race. Nature Strip and VE have been verry, verry good.
Millionaires' playground: The Top 10 earning trainers and jockeys
-
-
This is behind a paywall at Racenet. Interested in the Kiwi above, too.
Group 2 Hollindale Stakes runner-by-runner guide
-
@Kid-Chocolate said in Rough tips and other bets...:
Kentucky Derby goes Saturday.
12 TAIBA 12-1
6 MESSIER 8-1
10 ZANDON 3-1
3 EPICENTER 7/2
15 WHITE ABBARIO 10-1If you can grab fixed odds at 12-1 on Taiba I would jump on it.
Taiba getting crushed down to 4-1; Zandon drifting to 8-1.
Kentucky Derby 2022: Epicenter, Taiba the favorites in early betting
Epicenter and Taiba were vying for favoritism in early Kentucky Derby betting as of 7:30 p.m. Friday.
-
@Kid-Chocolate said in Rough tips and other bets...:
This is behind a paywall at Racenet. Interested in the Kiwi above, too.
Group 2 Hollindale Stakes runner-by-runner guide
Zaaki won (as expected at 1/5), but a very nice runner-up for Polly at 18-1, nice slice of a half-million dollar cheque! Finished strong in a G2 less than a length behind Zaaki, one of the elite horses in the southern hemisphere. For a second in that last 50 I honestly thought she had a chance to get up and steal it.
-
Kentucky Derby rough play. I’m going to get creative with this guy underneath in the exotics. His form and workouts have not been great, which has me rubbing my hands, because I know he’s better than this. If he hits the top three, and I think he can, the payouts should be monsters.
-
@Kid-Chocolate said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@Kid-Chocolate said in Rough tips and other bets...:
This is behind a paywall at Racenet. Interested in the Kiwi above, too.
Group 2 Hollindale Stakes runner-by-runner guide
Zaaki won (as expected at 1/5), but a very nice runner-up for Polly at 18-1, nice slice of a half-million dollar cheque! Finished strong in a G2 less than a length behind Zaaki, one of the elite horses in the southern hemisphere. For a second in that last 50 I honestly thought she had a chance to get up and steal it.
1800m short of her best. Off to Doomben cup now weather permitting.
Super proud of her run just the fisnish line arrive too quickly.
-
Good. Lord.
Did anybody just friggin watch that?!! FFS. 81-1 shot just won the Kentucky Derby.
Horse was an “also eligible,” meaning he only got in the race yesterday when another scratched out. Pace meltdown. They gunned it from the gate and ran the fastest opening quarter-mile in the races’ history.
Racecaller doesn’t even spot winner until 50 to go and nearly loses his voice. This is Epic.
Update: This is gambling brutality.
$2 exacta with the favourite underneath pays over $4K. A 50-cent trifecta (treble) with the TWO favourites underneath paid over $7K. And hoo, look at that superfecta. Over six-hundred grand!
-
Overhead view of the stretch run. Incredible ride. The jockey works in a small bullring runt tracks ($5000 claiming races at Belterra Park and Mahoning Valley — which are to Churchill Downs what e.g. Dargaville is compared to Flemington). This was his first ride in the Derby. I went back to watch some race previews, and none even mentioned the horse, presumably all the previews were recorded prior to the horse making the race after the scratch-out. He was the 2nd-eligible horse. The first eligible withdrew his horse a half-hour before close on Friday because he didn’t think his horse stood a chance to win from the outside gate, and that opened the door for the new champ. Crazy story and even crazier race.
And somebody needs to tell the Japanese the Derby is a mile-and-a-quarter, not 5 furlongs. The two lone foreigners were responsible for setting-up the suicidal pace meltdown, without which Rich Strike never wins. The two Japanese pacesetting rabbits blew up and were nowhere to be found near the finishline, coming 13th and 20th (dead last) respectively.
And for fun, here’s the post-race footage where new champ follows the record-smashing single biggest race betting pool and one of the greatest shocks in American sports history by immediately attacking the outrider pony.
-
i watched that 3 times yesterday. It's weird as fuck
Half the jockeys in teh field should be in front of the stewards for a "please explain"
It's still barely believable that the horse won from there. Yes the entire track opens up as everything drifts off the rail. But something paying those odds shouldn't cop the treatment it did on the turn, and have to run around a spent rail rider, and still blow past them.
One of the weirdest races i have ever seen.
-
I have it down to five factors.
-
The horse wasn’t entered into the race until Friday. Punters were fixated on the race and qualified (points) entrants for half a year. He was never on the radar. If he’d been eligible since the initial draw, he still would have been at long odds, but I suspect they would have been halved.
-
Although he ran 15 points higher on a Beyer scale than he’d ever run before, on the Racing Form PPs he had the fastest Timeform closer time of any of the entrants going into the race, rated a 110, which is insanely fast for a closer. Of course, he can only get a chance to close like that if there’s a suicidal pace meltdown, and formlines predicted there wasn’t going to be any speed… unless the Japanese pair had different ideas.
-
There was a suicidal pace meltdown. Fastest opening quarter-mile in the races’ history.
-
The open rail and some incredible decisions by the jock.
-
The horse. Nobody told him he was 80-1.
-
-
Look at this horse!
-
@Kid-Chocolate said in Rough tips and other bets...:
Look at this horse!
Is that from the Lord of the Rings?!!
That Kentucky Derby is an amazing run.
-
Polly gets another chance to upset Zaaki on Saturday.
-
$4-million dollar wager the Astros win the World Series. (There’s still more than four months and a hundred games left in the regular season.)
-
@Hooroo said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@SammyC said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@Hooroo said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@JK said in Rough tips and other bets...:
Polly Grey $4 on tab. Hopefully better with aus bookies once markets are up (anytime now)
Track suits too. She should go fairly well. Fitness is an issue but we think we have her there or thereabouts.
Great run! Makes me glad I looked at this thread this morning.
Cheers. She did it fairly easy in the end, looking at the replay.
I think she can go on from this. She did it in her stride and ate up as soon as she got home which shows it wasn’t stressful for her.
Looking at a listed race in Wellington if she doesn’t get sold beforehand.
Just reflecting on this from a bit over 3 years ago. From a maiden win in mid-April 2019 to taking on Zaaki in the Doomben Cup this Saturday!
-
@Smudge said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@Hooroo said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@SammyC said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@Hooroo said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@JK said in Rough tips and other bets...:
Polly Grey $4 on tab. Hopefully better with aus bookies once markets are up (anytime now)
Track suits too. She should go fairly well. Fitness is an issue but we think we have her there or thereabouts.
Great run! Makes me glad I looked at this thread this morning.
Cheers. She did it fairly easy in the end, looking at the replay.
I think she can go on from this. She did it in her stride and ate up as soon as she got home which shows it wasn’t stressful for her.
Looking at a listed race in Wellington if she doesn’t get sold beforehand.
Just reflecting on this from a bit over 3 years ago. From a maiden win in mid-April 2019 to taking on Zaaki in the Doomben Cup this Saturday!
The Best Horse in Australia
and some thing trained by Annabel Neasham
-
Edit: This is behind paywall sub, so I’m gonna cut&paste whole thing…
Legend encourages Kiwis to switch: ‘You Aussies have a different DNA to us'
As legendary trainer Murray Baker prepares to put his feet up in retirement and cheer on warrior stayer The Chosen One in Saturday’s Group 1 Doomben Cup, he has laid bare one regret of his grand training career.
The New Zealand training genius, 75, is enthralled by the success of Australian racing and in awe of the achievements of former Kiwis Chris Waller and James McDonald.
Baker wishes he had also made a full-time move to Australia at some point.
In retirement, Baker plans to encourage the next wave of talented New Zealand trainers and jockeys to take a chance and up stumps and move to Australia in search of greater racing opportunities and riches.
“People in New Zealand racing often say to me they are thinking of going to Australia, what do I think, I say just go,” Baker told News Corp.
“In fifteen years you can’t look over your shoulder and think I wish I had gone.
“Personally, I do wish I had given it a crack.
“There is a lot of frustration with New Zealand racing, the Government is not over-keen on it, prizemoney is bad, anyone will tell you they have to address it.
“Prizemoney is so good in Australia, even if you get an average horse you are still in front.
“I’ve got the greatest admiration for Australian racing, you are so unbelievably lucky.
“It is well managed and it seems to be at all levels.”
Baker, fresh from a visit to the dentist’s chair to fill a couple of holes in his teeth, told how his regular FIFO visits to Australian carnivals over the years had rammed home the monumental difference in attitude in racing Down Under to in his Kiwi homeland.
For instance, when Baker has often jetted into Auckland for a trip to Ellerslie races, the taxi drivers have little or no interest in racing.
It’s a very different story on the dozens of Group 1 missions that Baker has made to Australia.
“You get into a cab in Sydney or Melbourne and the cabbie finds out you are a horse trainer, they say they will pull the cab over because they want to find out what races my horses are in and if they are worth backing,” Baker laughs.
“Australians love betting and they love to own a horse, they love to be part of the action.
“You Aussies have a different (racing) DNA to us, you love to have a punt and love the fizz of it.
“People want to be involved.
“Australian racing – is there anything better? I don’t think there is.
“The number one thing in New Zealand is they have to address the prizemoney, because we now have a lot of horses going to Australia and they are raced by New Zealand owners.
“Once they get touched by Australian racing they don’t usually come back again, because of the prizemoney.”
In retirement, Baker is planning some European travels with his Swedish-born wife Marianne.
He also has a flock of 11 hungry ewes to tend to on his four-acre property.
Even as his own training career wound up, Baker continued to enjoy the success of former Kiwis Waller and McDonald.
Baker has clear early racing memories of both – and he knew almost from the first minute he saw them that they were destined for big things.
“James is a Cambridge boy and there is no-one better, I thought from day one he was destined to be a superstar,” Baker said.
“He just had such a natural talent.
“Even at a young age he was very well rounded and he had a good head on his shoulders.
“I also knew Waller from when he started off.
“I remember he was always very thorough and he knew what he was doing, I always thought he was destined to make it.
“He might become the greatest trainer ever.
“He doesn’t make mistakes does he?
“His horses are in the right races and they are winning.”
When he was in the twilight stages of his career, Baker trained in partnership with Andrew Forsman who has The Chosen One racing on Saturday as a $23 chance in the Doomben Cup.
It is hard to see The Chosen One knocking off $1.50 favourite Zaaki but Baker isn’t entirely ruling it out.
“The Chosen One is a modern-day Marco Polo, he has campaigned a bit,” Baker said.
“But he is a good quiet horse and he has performed admirably without getting that really big win.
“One thing I will say is that he does go well fresh.
“I will watch The Chosen One on Saturday and I will watch all my former horses go around.
“But I made the right decision to retire, I had a fair lick at training, 44 years.
“You can look over your shoulder and think you have some nice horses and think what about next season?
“But that just goes on and on and on.
“It was time for a new chapter in my life.”
As above, highlighted:
There are more Hungarian bred horses in this race than Australian. Mind you, there’s not even one Aussie-bred horse, which does seem a bit crazy.
