Rough tips and other bets...
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@Kid-Chocolate said in Rough tips and other bets...:
Waller’s five attempt to take down Zaaki
Leading trainer Chris Waller is renowned for gang tackling big races but even he concedes his team of five may not be enough to take down Zaaki in Saturday’s Group 2 Hollindale Stakes on the Gold Coast.
Waller expects to have Kolding, Polly Grey, Hungry Heart, Great House and last-start winner Kukeracha in the $500,000 contest against headline horses Zaaki and Ayrton.
That’s some impressive company.
@Kid-Chocolate said in Rough tips and other bets...:
Waller’s five attempt to take down Zaaki
Leading trainer Chris Waller is renowned for gang tackling big races but even he concedes his team of five may not be enough to take down Zaaki in Saturday’s Group 2 Hollindale Stakes on the Gold Coast.
Waller expects to have Kolding, Polly Grey, Hungry Heart, Great House and last-start winner Kukeracha in the $500,000 contest against headline horses Zaaki and Ayrton.
That’s some impressive company.
Let the rain dances begin
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Kentucky Derby goes Saturday.
My selections:
12 TAIBA 12-1
6 MESSIER 8-1
10 ZANDON 3-1
3 EPICENTER 7/2
15 WHITE ABBARIO 10-1If you can grab fixed odds at 12-1 on Taiba I would jump on it. Bit of a risk, the horse has only had two races, but was dominant in both, including last start win in Santa Anita Derby. Messier also good value. Zandon and Epicenter are good shots, but not at those prices. Morning-line on on White Abarrio is just right, I’ll keep my eye on him and jump on him anything above that odd.
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He’s earning double his closest rival. Income below is prize-money %-only, does not include mount fees which run about $250-$300/race. Nature Strip and VE have been verry, verry good.
Millionaires' playground: The Top 10 earning trainers and jockeys
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This is behind a paywall at Racenet. Interested in the Kiwi above, too.
Group 2 Hollindale Stakes runner-by-runner guide
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@Kid-Chocolate said in Rough tips and other bets...:
Kentucky Derby goes Saturday.
12 TAIBA 12-1
6 MESSIER 8-1
10 ZANDON 3-1
3 EPICENTER 7/2
15 WHITE ABBARIO 10-1If you can grab fixed odds at 12-1 on Taiba I would jump on it.
Taiba getting crushed down to 4-1; Zandon drifting to 8-1.
Kentucky Derby 2022: Epicenter, Taiba the favorites in early betting
Epicenter and Taiba were vying for favoritism in early Kentucky Derby betting as of 7:30 p.m. Friday.
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@Kid-Chocolate said in Rough tips and other bets...:
This is behind a paywall at Racenet. Interested in the Kiwi above, too.
Group 2 Hollindale Stakes runner-by-runner guide
Zaaki won (as expected at 1/5), but a very nice runner-up for Polly at 18-1, nice slice of a half-million dollar cheque! Finished strong in a G2 less than a length behind Zaaki, one of the elite horses in the southern hemisphere. For a second in that last 50 I honestly thought she had a chance to get up and steal it.
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Kentucky Derby rough play. I’m going to get creative with this guy underneath in the exotics. His form and workouts have not been great, which has me rubbing my hands, because I know he’s better than this. If he hits the top three, and I think he can, the payouts should be monsters.
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@Kid-Chocolate said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@Kid-Chocolate said in Rough tips and other bets...:
This is behind a paywall at Racenet. Interested in the Kiwi above, too.
Group 2 Hollindale Stakes runner-by-runner guide
Zaaki won (as expected at 1/5), but a very nice runner-up for Polly at 18-1, nice slice of a half-million dollar cheque! Finished strong in a G2 less than a length behind Zaaki, one of the elite horses in the southern hemisphere. For a second in that last 50 I honestly thought she had a chance to get up and steal it.
1800m short of her best. Off to Doomben cup now weather permitting.
Super proud of her run just the fisnish line arrive too quickly.
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Good. Lord.
Did anybody just friggin watch that?!! FFS. 81-1 shot just won the Kentucky Derby.
Horse was an “also eligible,” meaning he only got in the race yesterday when another scratched out. Pace meltdown. They gunned it from the gate and ran the fastest opening quarter-mile in the races’ history.
Racecaller doesn’t even spot winner until 50 to go and nearly loses his voice. This is Epic.
Update: This is gambling brutality.
$2 exacta with the favourite underneath pays over $4K. A 50-cent trifecta (treble) with the TWO favourites underneath paid over $7K. And hoo, look at that superfecta. Over six-hundred grand!
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Overhead view of the stretch run. Incredible ride. The jockey works in a small bullring runt tracks ($5000 claiming races at Belterra Park and Mahoning Valley — which are to Churchill Downs what e.g. Dargaville is compared to Flemington). This was his first ride in the Derby. I went back to watch some race previews, and none even mentioned the horse, presumably all the previews were recorded prior to the horse making the race after the scratch-out. He was the 2nd-eligible horse. The first eligible withdrew his horse a half-hour before close on Friday because he didn’t think his horse stood a chance to win from the outside gate, and that opened the door for the new champ. Crazy story and even crazier race.
And somebody needs to tell the Japanese the Derby is a mile-and-a-quarter, not 5 furlongs. The two lone foreigners were responsible for setting-up the suicidal pace meltdown, without which Rich Strike never wins. The two Japanese pacesetting rabbits blew up and were nowhere to be found near the finishline, coming 13th and 20th (dead last) respectively.
And for fun, here’s the post-race footage where new champ follows the record-smashing single biggest race betting pool and one of the greatest shocks in American sports history by immediately attacking the outrider pony.
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i watched that 3 times yesterday. It's weird as fuck
Half the jockeys in teh field should be in front of the stewards for a "please explain"
It's still barely believable that the horse won from there. Yes the entire track opens up as everything drifts off the rail. But something paying those odds shouldn't cop the treatment it did on the turn, and have to run around a spent rail rider, and still blow past them.
One of the weirdest races i have ever seen.
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I have it down to five factors.
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The horse wasn’t entered into the race until Friday. Punters were fixated on the race and qualified (points) entrants for half a year. He was never on the radar. If he’d been eligible since the initial draw, he still would have been at long odds, but I suspect they would have been halved.
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Although he ran 15 points higher on a Beyer scale than he’d ever run before, on the Racing Form PPs he had the fastest Timeform closer time of any of the entrants going into the race, rated a 110, which is insanely fast for a closer. Of course, he can only get a chance to close like that if there’s a suicidal pace meltdown, and formlines predicted there wasn’t going to be any speed… unless the Japanese pair had different ideas.
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There was a suicidal pace meltdown. Fastest opening quarter-mile in the races’ history.
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The open rail and some incredible decisions by the jock.
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The horse. Nobody told him he was 80-1.
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Look at this horse!
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@Kid-Chocolate said in Rough tips and other bets...:
Look at this horse!
Is that from the Lord of the Rings?!!
That Kentucky Derby is an amazing run.
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Polly gets another chance to upset Zaaki on Saturday.
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$4-million dollar wager the Astros win the World Series. (There’s still more than four months and a hundred games left in the regular season.)
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@Hooroo said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@SammyC said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@Hooroo said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@JK said in Rough tips and other bets...:
Polly Grey $4 on tab. Hopefully better with aus bookies once markets are up (anytime now)
Track suits too. She should go fairly well. Fitness is an issue but we think we have her there or thereabouts.
Great run! Makes me glad I looked at this thread this morning.
Cheers. She did it fairly easy in the end, looking at the replay.
I think she can go on from this. She did it in her stride and ate up as soon as she got home which shows it wasn’t stressful for her.
Looking at a listed race in Wellington if she doesn’t get sold beforehand.
Just reflecting on this from a bit over 3 years ago. From a maiden win in mid-April 2019 to taking on Zaaki in the Doomben Cup this Saturday!
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@Smudge said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@Hooroo said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@SammyC said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@Hooroo said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@JK said in Rough tips and other bets...:
Polly Grey $4 on tab. Hopefully better with aus bookies once markets are up (anytime now)
Track suits too. She should go fairly well. Fitness is an issue but we think we have her there or thereabouts.
Great run! Makes me glad I looked at this thread this morning.
Cheers. She did it fairly easy in the end, looking at the replay.
I think she can go on from this. She did it in her stride and ate up as soon as she got home which shows it wasn’t stressful for her.
Looking at a listed race in Wellington if she doesn’t get sold beforehand.
Just reflecting on this from a bit over 3 years ago. From a maiden win in mid-April 2019 to taking on Zaaki in the Doomben Cup this Saturday!
The Best Horse in Australia
and some thing trained by Annabel Neasham
