Rankings
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So what would it take for Ireland to pass NZ in July?
I assume two test wins would do it? Would one win be enough given the games are played in NZ?
It looks ... complex. But 2 wins definitely, I suspect, and 1 probably (assuming tight wins)
It seems that a lot depends on the order of wins.
If close wins go NZ/IRE/NZ then NZ remains just above in 3rd
If the order is IRE/NZ/NZ then NZ jumps up to second with IRE 4th
NZ/NZ/IRE would see IRE jump up to 3rd and we drop
Any two win combo to IRE jumps them upand the margins are so tight that we could win 2/1 but if the loss is large IRE would leapfrog us
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@majorrage said in Rankings:
If only Hansen had won the 2019 RWC. Then you could lose all these tests and still retain your no.1 ranking.
I do agree with that though. Like heavyweight boxing, you've pretty much so go to knock out the champ to claim the crown.
Didn't Aust do that twice, NZ once and England once?
The problem is awarding double points at the RWC. If you win the tournament your rankings will improve without having to inflate the rankings points awarded.
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@majorrage said in Rankings:
If only Hansen had won the 2019 RWC. Then you could lose all these tests and still retain your no.1 ranking.
I do agree with that though. Like heavyweight boxing, you've pretty much so go to knock out the champ to claim the crown.
Didn't Aust do that twice, NZ once and England once?
The problem is awarding double points at the RWC. If you win the tournament your rankings will improve without having to inflate the rankings points awarded.
Yep, but who did enough to really overtake them? We still lost to them once as well as Ireland & France, Australia lost to us 3 times as well as most of the NH & dunno if you saw Englands 6N results ....
Certainly an argument for France to be number 1 & Ireland number 2, but neither of them beat South Africa. Who also beat the Lions.
No problems with SA still being number 1 given the above.
@bovidae yeah didn't Wales somehow get ranked #1 at one point during a RWC?
Yeah, so about as far away as possible from the previous WC and hence less hangover points.
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@majorrage said in Rankings:
Certainly an argument for France to be number 1 & Ireland number 2, but neither of them beat South Africa.
I think you could argue France should be the no.1 and not many would disagree with that.
Looking at the historical rankings, Ireland entered the 2019 RWC as the no.1 ranked team. NZ was 2nd and SA was 4th. SA's points went from 87.35 to 94.20 when they won the tournament. That has now decreased to 90.61 while France is on 88.88, which would put them ahead of SA without the double points but SA still ahead of NZ.
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@majorrage said in Rankings:
Certainly an argument for France to be number 1 & Ireland number 2, but neither of them beat South Africa.
I think you could argue France should be the no.1 and not many would disagree with that.
Looking at the historical rankings, Ireland entered the 2019 RWC as the no.1 ranked team. NZ was 2nd and SA was 4th. SA's points went from 87.35 to 94.20 when they won the tournament. That has now decreased to 90.61 while France is on 88.88, which would put them ahead of SA without the double points but SA still ahead of NZ.
I don't disagree. I think France are the best time in the world right now. In theory that should make them the number one ranked side, right?
Which is my argument above. I think they need to knock out the champ.
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The only reason RWC gets double is so they don't have a winner not ranked 1. World Rugby can't handle complexity. Which is stupid really, being cup winner does not mean you're the best, consistent team in the world, which the ranking is much better at showing. I'd like to see some nerd redo the rankings taking the RWC extra points out. It would be much more accurate I reckon
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@Joans-Town-Jones said in Ireland v Australia:
I think the Wallabies will pull it off. They're due to click long enough to hold out for a win.
I hope they can. While a win would only move them up the rankings one or two places (depending on the Scotland v Arg result), it would knock Ireland off the top and below us. A NZ win beforehand would make the gap between us and France (1 and 2) very small.
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@Crucial said in Ireland v Australia:
@Joans-Town-Jones said in Ireland v Australia:
I think the Wallabies will pull it off. They're due to click long enough to hold out for a win.
I hope they can. While a win would only move them up the rankings one or two places (depending on the Scotland v Arg result), it would knock Ireland off the top and below us. A NZ win beforehand would make the gap between us and France (1 and 2) very small.
Won't that make a mockery of the whole ranking system? I mean, we've lost to Ireland, SA, France, Argentina and almost Australia...
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@Joans-Town-Jones said in Ireland v Australia:
@Crucial said in Ireland v Australia:
@Joans-Town-Jones said in Ireland v Australia:
I think the Wallabies will pull it off. They're due to click long enough to hold out for a win.
I hope they can. While a win would only move them up the rankings one or two places (depending on the Scotland v Arg result), it would knock Ireland off the top and below us. A NZ win beforehand would make the gap between us and France (1 and 2) very small.
Won't that make a mockery of the whole ranking system? I mean, we've lost to Ireland, SA, France, Argentina and almost Australia...
No, it's shows there is very little between the top sides at the moment. We also beat Ireland, SA, Argentina and Australia.
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@Joans-Town-Jones said in Ireland v Australia:
@Crucial said in Ireland v Australia:
@Joans-Town-Jones said in Ireland v Australia:
I think the Wallabies will pull it off. They're due to click long enough to hold out for a win.
I hope they can. While a win would only move them up the rankings one or two places (depending on the Scotland v Arg result), it would knock Ireland off the top and below us. A NZ win beforehand would make the gap between us and France (1 and 2) very small.
Won't that make a mockery of the whole ranking system? I mean, we've lost to Ireland, SA, France, Argentina and almost Australia...
Ireland would be the only 'anomaly' expect that since they beat us they would have lost to a team that we beat twice. So the passage of time and current form would indicate that we could claim to be ahead of them anyway.
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@Kirwan said in Ireland v Australia:
@Joans-Town-Jones said in Ireland v Australia:
@Crucial said in Ireland v Australia:
@Joans-Town-Jones said in Ireland v Australia:
I think the Wallabies will pull it off. They're due to click long enough to hold out for a win.
I hope they can. While a win would only move them up the rankings one or two places (depending on the Scotland v Arg result), it would knock Ireland off the top and below us. A NZ win beforehand would make the gap between us and France (1 and 2) very small.
Won't that make a mockery of the whole ranking system? I mean, we've lost to Ireland, SA, France, Argentina and almost Australia...
No, it's shows there is very little between the top sides at the moment. We also beat Ireland, SA, Argentina and Australia.
And Ireland also lost to France.
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@Joans-Town-Jones said in Ireland v Australia:
@Crucial said in Ireland v Australia:
@Joans-Town-Jones said in Ireland v Australia:
I think the Wallabies will pull it off. They're due to click long enough to hold out for a win.
I hope they can. While a win would only move them up the rankings one or two places (depending on the Scotland v Arg result), it would knock Ireland off the top and below us. A NZ win beforehand would make the gap between us and France (1 and 2) very small.
Won't that make a mockery of the whole ranking system? I mean, we've lost to Ireland, SA, France, Argentina and almost Australia...
Yep but we have also beaten all teams named haven't we?? So not sure what you mean JTJ.
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@Dan54 said in Ireland v Australia:
@Joans-Town-Jones said in Ireland v Australia:
@Crucial said in Ireland v Australia:
@Joans-Town-Jones said in Ireland v Australia:
I think the Wallabies will pull it off. They're due to click long enough to hold out for a win.
I hope they can. While a win would only move them up the rankings one or two places (depending on the Scotland v Arg result), it would knock Ireland off the top and below us. A NZ win beforehand would make the gap between us and France (1 and 2) very small.
Won't that make a mockery of the whole ranking system? I mean, we've lost to Ireland, SA, France, Argentina and almost Australia...
Yep but we have also beaten all teams named haven't we?? So not sure what you mean JTJ.
Well, lost a series to Ireland, lost to France, won a series on aggregate to Argentina, and beat the Wobs. Oh and drew or lost on aggregate to SA? I don't see how we can close the gap. I just find the ranking system a bit weird.
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@Joans-Town-Jones re making a mockery of the ranking system: Maybe this view merits a wider consideration?
Consider that we are on a winning streak of 6 matches - only France has better. The last 6 matches for France include 4 point wins over South Africa and Wales, a 5-pointer over Japan and a 1 pointer over Australia.
Then, how many matches have France and Ireland played away from home, and how often have they benefited from cards to the opposition, while incurring next to none themselves.
Simply looks like a very even playing field in the top 10 countries, with home advantage, cards, injuries and depth-testing rotation influencing some of the results.
We are now ahead of a South African team that has lost 4 of their last 7 and an English team that has done the same.
The gap between NZ and France might not be as great as people assume. And, we had a points aggregate victory over Ireland earlier this year didn't we??
