Coronavirus - Overall
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Overall:
Think of it as supervised day release so people can still earn a living. It's that or being sentenced to indefinite home detention.
Which would you pick?
I'd pick the South Korean model. But then I'm not comparing voluntarily diary keeping to help get out of lockdown with the Stasi playbook?
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@Donsteppa said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Overall:
Think of it as supervised day release so people can still earn a living. It's that or being sentenced to indefinite home detention.
Which would you pick?
I'd pick the South Korean model.
I'm astonished.
But then I'm not comparing voluntarily diary keeping to help get out of lockdown with the Stasi playbook?
I see the point of that went over your head.
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@antipodean mine too then...can you explain for us dummies?
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@Bones said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@antipodean mine too then...can you explain for us dummies?
Presumably Soviet-era technology if not the secret police angle.
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@Donsteppa said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Bones said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@antipodean mine too then...can you explain for us dummies?
Presumably Soviet-era technology if not the secret police angle.
I...ahhh....yeah more confused now.
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It's been mooted that apparently pubs may not open until Xmas ...
Between that and the Ex-Royals telling the tabloids they will never work with them again, the mood is explosive in the mother country this morning!
However, the sun is out, so all is forgiven.
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@Bones said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@antipodean mine too then...can you explain for us dummies?
The country has meekly accepted a mandatory lockdown of law abiding citizens based on a lack of compelling evidence and continues to do so even in the face of available data. You have a government that "suggests" you keep a log of people you come into contact with whilst continuing with an unnecessary and illogical course of action.
Meanwhile a 21st century solution to the same problem exists and makes unnecessary the lockdown you've all been enjoying. Congrats I guess. Keep up the good work.
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I'm unsure as to the timing in New Zealand, but in Australia the panic was characterised by two "events". The Italy count and the Ruby Princess.
Earlier today I was reading this: Investigating the impact of influenza on excess mortality in all ages in Italy during recent seasons (2013/14–2016/17 seasons) in the International Journal of Infectious Diseases. Published August last year.
In recent years, Italy has been registering peaks in death rates, particularly among the elderly during the winter season.
We estimated excess deaths of 7,027, 20,259, 15,801 and 24,981 attributable to influenza epidemics in the 2013/14, 2014/15, 2015/16 and 2016/17, respectively, using the Goldstein index. The average annual mortality excess rate per 100,000 ranged from 11.6 to 41.2 with most of the influenza-associated deaths per year registered among the elderly.
Over 68,000 deaths were attributable to influenza epidemics in the study period. The observed excess of deaths is not completely unexpected, given the high number of fragile very old subjects living in Italy.
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So, I've come to the conclusions that nothing means anything when it comes to Covid
Test, they say. Test test test. One of the top testers, Italy.
Isolate, they say. Isolate isolate isolate. Sweden results ... much better than many other countries who isolatedSo perhaps travel and population demographics mean everything, nothing else means a single thing. And then you have Japan, with one of the oldest populations and busiest airport infrastructures on the planet. So ....
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I went to work today, and Tokyo is empty. Emmmmmpty.
I work in Ikebukuro (3rd busiest by some standards) and I saw about 4 ppl on the 7 minute walk from the station to work.
It was really weird - everything is shut - on the train, ppl were leaving a spare space between each other - so ppl are taking it pretty seriously.
Whether it is too late or not
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@MajorRage said in Coronavirus - Overall:
It's been mooted that apparently pubs may not open until Xmas ...
Between that and the Ex-Royals telling the tabloids they will never work with them again, the mood is explosive in the mother country this morning!
However, the sun is out, so all is forgiven.
A corker of an English spring day.
Upset about about the pubs and beer gardens. Couldn't give a rat's f##k about the ex-royals. They must the most boring and unintelligent couple on the planet. The US can keep 'em.
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@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
Local Central Banks
Local Banks
Local Insurance companies and Pension/superannuation funds
Overseas Central banks
Other InvestorsIn the UK and Europe, and I think US, the Regulators twist the arms up the back of Cats 2 and 3 to be up to their gills in local government bonds, even though in Cat 3 case the returns are derisory for their beneficiaries. And, as the article intimates, Cat 1 is stepping up massively to buy. In UK that is both for new issues and secondary stock.
Gilts are becoming less used in UK pension funds as funds are switched out of traditional corporate pension schemes and into self-invested plans. The returns just don't outweigh the risk of other fixed-income instruments.
A rise in interest rates to say, 2%, might make holding gummint paper more attractive, but what's the impact on public finances?
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@booboo said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
The attached throws into question received wisdom:
Sorry. Can you please explain for me?
Latest is that the paper is getting discredited. Apparently, the sample was based on an ad on FB. Despite 'screening' it turns out quite a few enterprising volunteers who felt unwell worked out it was a way of getting tested promptly, which otherwise was difficult!
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@Victor-Meldrew said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
Local Central Banks
Local Banks
Local Insurance companies and Pension/superannuation funds
Overseas Central banks
Other InvestorsIn the UK and Europe, and I think US, the Regulators twist the arms up the back of Cats 2 and 3 to be up to their gills in local government bonds, even though in Cat 3 case the returns are derisory for their beneficiaries. And, as the article intimates, Cat 1 is stepping up massively to buy. In UK that is both for new issues and secondary stock.
Gilts are becoming less used in UK pension funds as funds are switched out of traditional corporate pension schemes and into self-invested plans. The returns just don't outweigh the risk of other fixed-income instruments.
A rise in interest rates to say, 2%, might make holding gummint paper more attractive, but what's the impact on public finances?
And destroy capital values in the meantime.
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Overall:
I'm unsure as to the timing in New Zealand, but in Australia the panic was characterised by two "events". The Italy count and the Ruby Princess.
Earlier today I was reading this: Investigating the impact of influenza on excess mortality in all ages in Italy during recent seasons (2013/14–2016/17 seasons) in the International Journal of Infectious Diseases. Published August last year.
In recent years, Italy has been registering peaks in death rates, particularly among the elderly during the winter season.
We estimated excess deaths of 7,027, 20,259, 15,801 and 24,981 attributable to influenza epidemics in the 2013/14, 2014/15, 2015/16 and 2016/17, respectively, using the Goldstein index. The average annual mortality excess rate per 100,000 ranged from 11.6 to 41.2 with most of the influenza-associated deaths per year registered among the elderly.
Over 68,000 deaths were attributable to influenza epidemics in the study period. The observed excess of deaths is not completely unexpected, given the high number of fragile very old subjects living in Italy.
That's interesting for a baseline.
But, how much of Italy has Covid19 impacted yet though? Italy don't release stats by state/region, so the JHU stats don't break down by region for Italy, so there's been no reporting of it yet that I have seen. Has the country gone into lockdown before it spread much from Lombardy and the rest of the Po Valley? (Although Po Valley acccounts for half of Italy's population)
Have found this:
The top 4 are all Po Valley. Rome (Lazio) and Naples (Campania) have barely been effected yet.
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When Italy went into lockdown, they already had 9000 confirmed cases. Recent evidence suggests that many, many more Italians would have been exposed and spreading it.
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How is Greece not completely fu*ked? Ton of smokers, old population, generational living arrangements, poor public health system etc. Is it purely a case of covid19 not getting a hold there yet and the worst is to come? Or is there some other reason for low infection rate?