Coronavirus - Overall
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@R-L said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@sparky said in Coronavirus - Overall:
Really bad bit, this is the first wave of this virus. We can expect several waves to come and Coronavirus to be a challenge to global health for many years.
Can we assume that it wouldn't actually be that bad though...
- Better the devil you know, we've at least experienced it and will be better prepared?
2.Hopefully achieved at least a decent amount herd immunity?
This is more self talk for me really.... It will be OK, it will be OK...
No way can we do a lockdown every year, social distancing measures I'd be happy with.Looks like schools back May 11 or 1 June. Some impact summer school holidays.
Working in non-hospitality probably more like normal by 1 June.
Social distancing for rest year.
Over 70s and at risk isolated until vaccine.
If you're not overweight and under 60 then herd immunity not really relevant. It's very unlikley that CV is going to kill you.
Herd immunity is a pre requisite to letting the over 70s roam and large gatherings resuming.Best I can come up with!
- Better the devil you know, we've at least experienced it and will be better prepared?
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@Bones Yes definitely got that feeling.
However, suspect Matt Hancock is in for a real roasting whenever they decide to throw him up in front of the cameras again, especially over the non-arrival of PPE from Turkey. Noticed a distinct lack of his presence lately. -
@Jailbreak7 maybe he was unloading the trucks!
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@No-Quarter said in Coronavirus - Overall:
I found this to be an interesting article, though he says the word build so often it starts to lose meaning. But some food for thought.
Yes. Constructive attitude required!
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Reading in the Economist: South Korea reported eight new cases in last 24 hours. Achieved without implementing lock down.
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Overall:
Reading in the Economist: South Korea reported eight new cases in last 24 hours. Achieved without implementing lock down.
Didn't they go for a wholesale surveillance method (phone and credit card tracing, govt shelters for isolation, phone app for self isolators) to keep control of things? Way further than asking their citizens to keep a tracking diary.
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Overall:
Reading in the Economist: South Korea reported eight new cases in last 24 hours. Achieved without implementing lock down.
They've been very successful. But with a level of surveillance that would draw reference on TSF to life behind the iron curtain if it was proposed for here.
What hasn’t been so widely reported is the country’s heavy use of surveillance technology, notably CCTV and the tracking of bank card and mobile phone usage, to identify who to test in the first place. And this is an important lesson for more liberal countries that might be less tolerant of such privacy invading measures but are hoping to emulate South Korea’s success.
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Think of it as supervised day release so people can still earn a living. It's that or being sentenced to indefinite home detention.
Which would you pick?
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Overall:
Think of it as supervised day release so people can still earn a living. It's that or being sentenced to indefinite home detention.
Which would you pick?
I'd pick the South Korean model. But then I'm not comparing voluntarily diary keeping to help get out of lockdown with the Stasi playbook?
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@Donsteppa said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Overall:
Think of it as supervised day release so people can still earn a living. It's that or being sentenced to indefinite home detention.
Which would you pick?
I'd pick the South Korean model.
I'm astonished.
But then I'm not comparing voluntarily diary keeping to help get out of lockdown with the Stasi playbook?
I see the point of that went over your head.
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@antipodean mine too then...can you explain for us dummies?
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@Bones said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@antipodean mine too then...can you explain for us dummies?
Presumably Soviet-era technology if not the secret police angle.
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@Donsteppa said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Bones said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@antipodean mine too then...can you explain for us dummies?
Presumably Soviet-era technology if not the secret police angle.
I...ahhh....yeah more confused now.
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It's been mooted that apparently pubs may not open until Xmas ...
Between that and the Ex-Royals telling the tabloids they will never work with them again, the mood is explosive in the mother country this morning!
However, the sun is out, so all is forgiven.
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@Bones said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@antipodean mine too then...can you explain for us dummies?
The country has meekly accepted a mandatory lockdown of law abiding citizens based on a lack of compelling evidence and continues to do so even in the face of available data. You have a government that "suggests" you keep a log of people you come into contact with whilst continuing with an unnecessary and illogical course of action.
Meanwhile a 21st century solution to the same problem exists and makes unnecessary the lockdown you've all been enjoying. Congrats I guess. Keep up the good work.
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I'm unsure as to the timing in New Zealand, but in Australia the panic was characterised by two "events". The Italy count and the Ruby Princess.
Earlier today I was reading this: Investigating the impact of influenza on excess mortality in all ages in Italy during recent seasons (2013/14–2016/17 seasons) in the International Journal of Infectious Diseases. Published August last year.
In recent years, Italy has been registering peaks in death rates, particularly among the elderly during the winter season.
We estimated excess deaths of 7,027, 20,259, 15,801 and 24,981 attributable to influenza epidemics in the 2013/14, 2014/15, 2015/16 and 2016/17, respectively, using the Goldstein index. The average annual mortality excess rate per 100,000 ranged from 11.6 to 41.2 with most of the influenza-associated deaths per year registered among the elderly.
Over 68,000 deaths were attributable to influenza epidemics in the study period. The observed excess of deaths is not completely unexpected, given the high number of fragile very old subjects living in Italy.
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So, I've come to the conclusions that nothing means anything when it comes to Covid
Test, they say. Test test test. One of the top testers, Italy.
Isolate, they say. Isolate isolate isolate. Sweden results ... much better than many other countries who isolatedSo perhaps travel and population demographics mean everything, nothing else means a single thing. And then you have Japan, with one of the oldest populations and busiest airport infrastructures on the planet. So ....