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@voodoo Yep I am feeling over saturated tbh, like watching a train wreck I suppose. I guess we are all looking to connect with others in the same situation and taking a little bit of solace in that. But I am going to try and be a little more productive.
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@No-Quarter said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@Duluth said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@Bones said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894
Probably better in this thread.
Post under investigation as it violated rules... available anywhere else?
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/covid-19-evidence-over-hysteria
The article is coming under intense scrutiny and criticism now.
E.G.
It's so hard to know who to listen to...
I was going to post that, so thanks.
I don't know who is right, but the rebuttal seems rather personal, playing the man and elitist. He may be right but his style is not convincing at all.There is a fair bit of professional outrage. But he does highlight the fact that much of the original article doesn't cite comprehensive references.
Two pretty key stats are the number of those infected who will be sick as dogs but not need hospitalisation (even though they probably will think they do) and the number who do need it but won't die or have their health semi-permanently impaired.
And a rather awful question ito ponder s how many people who die merely had their lives cut short by a few months to a year.
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@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@No-Quarter said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@Duluth said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@Bones said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894
Probably better in this thread.
Post under investigation as it violated rules... available anywhere else?
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/covid-19-evidence-over-hysteria
The article is coming under intense scrutiny and criticism now.
E.G.
It's so hard to know who to listen to...
I was going to post that, so thanks.
I don't know who is right, but the rebuttal seems rather personal, playing the man and elitist. He may be right but his style is not convincing at all.I didn't get that sense. I did get the sense he is really frustrated with unqualified people getting huge amounts of traction and attention peddling misleading data (note, I am not claiming I personally identified the original article as such).
I can totally understand how an expert would feel that way.
Incidentally, this is what I as trying to say on the other debate:
β The author discusses the apparent decline in daily growth rate irrespective of control measures.β
And
βHe fails to see that this drop in apparent growth rates is heavily driven by left censoring and shifts in testing strategy. Testing started at different times in different countries, was influenced by case density, and early-on, tests individuals in all stages of disease.β
I.e. it's just so hard to compare across different countries when the approach appears so different.
The reduction in growth rate is an inevitable consequence of ever greater number of people being infected -- the demoninator rising causes that. So no huge information content.
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@chimoaus said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
Why are Asian people so much more obedient? Do they have more pride and nationalism? Have they had less personal freedoms so doing what Govt says is normal. Is there a level of fear?
How do those govts put shit in place so quick like if you have the Rona they give u a phone and track you. They text you, call u and send people to check on you. They build hospitals in weeks. They just get shit done. Interesting times.
I'm going to take a punt and say that Western civilisation's strength has been its pursuant of truth via its judeo-christian foundation and then on from that its striving toward personal liberty. Maybe our weekness at critical times in the short-term..but maybe not.
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@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@chimoaus said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
Why are Asian people so much more obedient? Do they have more pride and nationalism? Have they had less personal freedoms so doing what Govt says is normal. Is there a level of fear?
How do those govts put shit in place so quick like if you have the Rona they give u a phone and track you. They text you, call u and send people to check on you. They build hospitals in weeks. They just get shit done. Interesting times.
Friends of ours flew back from Bali to HK to ride this out for a while. They literally got tagged at the airport - a GPS bracelet that is tracked 24/7.
Contrast to NZ, where we filled out a form that may or may not have been sent to the folk at Healthline for loading to a database. I can't check that database of course, because nobody answers the phone there.
My partner's sister just returned to London Heathrow after a week in Dubai.
No checks in place at the airport.
I returned to the UK at the end of February after a winter in Hokkaido, Japan and transitting through Seoul and Amsterdam.
No checks in place at Cardiff Airport.
This, to me, has been the biggest failing by the UK government.
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I'm going to take a punt and say that Western civilisation's strength has been its pursuant of truth via its judeo-christian foundation and then on from that its striving toward personal liberty. Maybe our weekness at critical times in the short-term..but maybe not.
I think it was Churchill who said Western democracies were like lengths of string while more totalitarian societies were like lengths of chain.
A piece of string is easily broken but you can just as easily tie it together again.
Once a length of chain is broken, you're basically fucked.
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@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@chimoaus said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
Why are Asian people so much more obedient? Do they have more pride and nationalism? Have they had less personal freedoms so doing what Govt says is normal. Is there a level of fear?
How do those govts put shit in place so quick like if you have the Rona they give u a phone and track you. They text you, call u and send people to check on you. They build hospitals in weeks. They just get shit done. Interesting times.
Friends of ours flew back from Bali to HK to ride this out for a while. They literally got tagged at the airport - a GPS bracelet that is tracked 24/7.
Contrast to NZ, where we filled out a form that may or may not have been sent to the folk at Healthline for loading to a database. I can't check that database of course, because nobody answers the phone there.
My partner's sister just returned to London Heathrow after a week in Dubai.
No checks in place at the airport.
I returned to the UK at the end of February after a winter in Hokkaido, Japan and transitting through Seoul and Amsterdam.
No checks in place at Cardiff Airport.
This, to me, has been the biggest failing by the UK government.
In some ways it seems like they've accepted they can't stop the spread so instead want to be the first country through to the other side.
edit: Otherside meaning herd immunity..not the other thing..though some of that too
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback I wondered if it's the tone of a person who's provided critique on a number of papers/articles. Doesn't mean it can't be personal as well though. Some very good points in the rebuttal - good links to other info too which is actually one of the best bits imo.
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@Rembrandt said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@chimoaus said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
Why are Asian people so much more obedient? Do they have more pride and nationalism? Have they had less personal freedoms so doing what Govt says is normal. Is there a level of fear?
How do those govts put shit in place so quick like if you have the Rona they give u a phone and track you. They text you, call u and send people to check on you. They build hospitals in weeks. They just get shit done. Interesting times.
Friends of ours flew back from Bali to HK to ride this out for a while. They literally got tagged at the airport - a GPS bracelet that is tracked 24/7.
Contrast to NZ, where we filled out a form that may or may not have been sent to the folk at Healthline for loading to a database. I can't check that database of course, because nobody answers the phone there.
My partner's sister just returned to London Heathrow after a week in Dubai.
No checks in place at the airport.
I returned to the UK at the end of February after a winter in Hokkaido, Japan and transitting through Seoul and Amsterdam.
No checks in place at Cardiff Airport.
This, to me, has been the biggest failing by the UK government.
In some ways it seems like they've accepted they can't stop the spread so instead want to be the first country through to the other side.
edit: Otherside meaning herd immunity..not the other thing..though some of that too
They could have at least identified
- Where it was coming from
- Who had it
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I'm told as you enter Australia now you have to provide your quarantine address, and you're told to expect a knock on the door from the cops in the next 14 days. If you aren't there then a big fine is coming your way.
In another update (from about three days/35 pages ago), we made the call to postpone our wedding. Ended up being the only logical thing to do, and with the current restrictions we probably couldn't have it anyway.
It sucks, but at least we've still got jobs. After today there are thousands who can't say the same. I'd much rather be in my shoes than theirs.
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@Rembrandt said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
edit: Otherside meaning herd immunity..not the other thing..though some of that too
Yeah, seen a few articles on how relaxing the restrictions and managing further mini-outbreaks is going to be the key bit until a vaccine is available in 18 months time.
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@Victor-Meldrew said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@Rembrandt said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
edit: Otherside meaning herd immunity..not the other thing..though some of that too
Yeah, seen a few articles on how relaxing the restrictions and managing further mini-outbreaks is going to be the key bit until a vaccine is available in 18 months time.
yeah- cheap plentiful testing is going to be really really key in managing that as we move through this
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@barbarian Sorry for you and the missus, must be tough as so much energy and time goes into it, but the Rona helps put things in perspective, and that is having family, friends and loved ones alive is more important.
Edit: I assume it's a missus, my apologies if it's a Mr Barbarian.
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@chimoaus said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@barbarian Sorry for you and the missus, must be tough as so much energy and time goes into it, but the Rona helps put things in perspective, and that is having family, friends and loved ones alive is more important.
Edit: I assume it's a missus, my apologies if it's a Mr Barbarian.
Very true. Yes I can confirm its a Mrs Barbarian, who currently identifies as cisgender and prefers she/her pronouns.
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@chimoaus said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
Just read some Bondi based backpackers have tested positive....
Let's hope they weren't on the beach
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The relatively encouraging figure is of 669 virus cases in NSW, only 65 are 'locally acquired', eg picked up without being overseas or in close contact of a confirmed case.
So the chances of you picking it up from the train, or general life around town are still relatively slim.
I think the authorities are betting on the border closure to stamp out most of the 'imported cases', and the gathering ban to halt community transmission.
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@barbarian would that stat be skewed by them targeting travelers with their testing though? The feeling over here in NZ is that they've just been testing people returning home so the community outbreaks are going unnoticed.
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UK's shielding announcement on those most at risk being asked to quarantine for 12 weeks.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/guidance-on-shielding-and-protecting-extremely-vulnerable-persons-from-covid-19/guidance-on-shielding-and-protecting-extremely-vulnerable-persons-from-covid-19Worth a read and worth considering Australia is about 1 week behind the UK and NZ about 2 weeks behind Australia.
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@No-Quarter said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@barbarian would that stat be skewed by them targeting travelers with their testing though? The feeling over here in NZ is that they've just been testing people returning home so the community outbreaks are going unnoticed.
We've done a shitload of testing, more than most other jurisdictions. Over 100,000 tests IIRC.
It might be slightly skewed, of course, but even with that assumption it's still a reasonable figure.
Coronavirus - Overall