AB RWC squad
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One thing that I'd be pretty surprised about is if anyone has been told they're not going, yet. I certainly haven't had a call from Steve
- but, it would be a bit silly to tell e.g. Laumape that he's not going now, if tomorrow SBW wrecks his knee. "Err, Ngani forget about what we said yesterday...".I think, though, there's probably only two or three question-marks remaining and they're more around balance and fitness than anything. Most likely the selectors already know their preferred 31.
In the backs, the only two major questions in my mind are whether they take three first fives (I would, but the signs are pointing against it) and whether they take 14 backs, or think they can still shed an outside back in favour of an extra loose forward (so only take 13 backs).
In the forwards, there's a question of balance among the props and a real question as to whether Big Karl can come back in for Atu Moli - and can play off the bench. If he can't, then I think Owen Franks is in some trouble.
We need two looseheads, two tightheads, and someone who can play both sides (Ofa). We also need two starting props and two bench props - and a plus one.
To cut a long story short, I don't see Owen being a decent bench option and it seems likely to me that Nepo Laulala has grabbed Owen's starting spot - so Owen needs to be the plus one.
BUT - the plus one will be dictated by which bench position Ofa takes. If he plays tighthead then the plus one will be a tighthead and Owen probably edges Angus Ta'avao as the plus one.
But, if we need Ofa on the loosehead side - I think Angus makes the squad as the bench tighthead, and the plus one has to be a loosehead - Atu Moli.
Last question is the mix of the loose forwards - looking increasingly apparent that they'll be taking Read, Cane, Ardie and Matt Todd - most likely plus one (just possibly plus two), with Scott Barrett also able to play some 6.
For me, last spot goes to either Jackson Hemopo or fern favourite Vaea Fifita.
I don't see Liam Squire coming back - he wasn't really compelling for the Mako on Sunday (Taufua and Blackadder caught the eye more).
I don't see Frizell or Papali'i coming back, because that decision already got made.
So Hemopo, Fifita or Jacobson? I want to see us take at least one big blindside and the extra size and experience of Hemopo and Fifita put them ahead of Jacobson in the queue for me (Jacobson has played about 20 minutes for the ABs).
So Hemopo or Fifita - well, one is a genuine 6 and the other isn't and we've already got four locks (according to my calculations - though that might not be locked in), so I'm going to have Fifita as the favourite to slide across the line.
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@Chris-B Probably correct, but I would go for Luke Jacobson. Good enough to play 6 against both Canada and Namibia. Most like Ardie in style so he can cover if Ardie has a small injury ahead of Italy. Seems like a fast learner too.
But the other way of looking at is who starts at 6 against South Africa if Ardie or Keiran Read pick up an injury in the week before. Then Fifita probably gets the nod.
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@Chris-B That looks pretty sound.
I think I've talked myself into Fifita ahead of Hemopo and Jacobson at 6, his USP being the pace he can bring.
Also had broadly same thinking on props. They want bench impact options, which in Bledisloe squad are Ofa/Ta'Avao/Moli.
The four best scrummagers are Joe/Karl/Owen/Nepo.
Karl and Ofa provided very good impact off the bench for Blues before Karl got ill.
So for me Karl ticks both boxes and I'd feel a lot more comfortable coming up against Boks or Poms having him on bench.
And Moli a year too early IMO, although unlike Karl he is in squad.
If Karl/Joe/Ofa/Nepo in then it's down to Angus vs. Owen. That would fit the category of the tough calls TWM talked about.
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I'd be suprised if Rieko Ioane misses out. Clearly he is a little bit out of sorts. But 23 tries in 26 internationals. Still only aged 22. I think they will back him to get into form. Even allowing for the rise of Reece and Bridge, he is a world-class wing.
Ben Smith is probably more at risk if they decide to take only 13 backs to accomodate 4 Locks and 6 Backrow players. Jordie Barrett will make it as the third-choice goalkicker and is playing well enough to justifying being in the squad.
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@nzzp More likely 11 Bridge, 14 Smith, 15 Barrett
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@pakman said in RWC squad. Who's in, who's out?:
@pakman said in RWC squad. Who's in, who's out?:
@pakman said in RWC squad. Who's in, who's out?:
@sparky said in RWC squad. Who's in, who's out?:
@pakman Todd will be in the main squad IMHO. They are picking Ardie as a 6/8 so far this year. Todd is the main back-up Openside.
I don't disagree, but if it were me I'd rather have Luke Jacobson. My thinking is I'd want Ardie covering 7 against Boks & Poms, and Jacobson can cover 6 & 7 against more lightweight teams.
For me key is the Scooter on bench can cover 4/6 against the big, slow teams and is lineout booster.
In those games Squire starts and Savea on bench.
Need someone to cover 7 against weaker teams if Savea or Cane rested.
Aganst lighter, faster, teams, if both Cane and Savea started then 7 is covered. Scooter or Read cover lock. Other bench loosie a hitter (Squire) or someone faster if pace the imperative. That's the real call for last place.
And Fifita, according to The Gregorian, is the fastest forward in NZ 'by some distance'.
Who?
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@sparky said in RWC squad. Who's in, who's out?:
Ben Smith is probably more at risk if they decide to take only 13 backs to accomodate 4 Locks and 6 Backrow players. Jordie Barrett will make it as the third-choice goalkicker and is playing well enough to justifying being in the squad.
I can't see them leaving either of Ben Smith or Rieko at home. After the weekend, Bridge and Reece must be pretty good shots, but I still wouldn't quite lock both of them in.
I think Jordie is most at risk in the back five, unless he's somehow pushed himself ahead of Ben Smith as the 2nd fullback option. I can't really see a crucial role for him - his biggest strength, I guess, is that he can plug in at a lot of positions in an absolute pinch, though really I wouldn't want to see him anywhere except fullback in a big RWC game.
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@Chris-B Jordie can play 12 or 13 against a Tier 2 team, but so could Ben Smith or Reiko Ioane. He could play 14 against a Tier 2 side, Italy or Scotland, but so could Ben Smith. Ben Smith is the more proven Fullback. Who would you rather have as Fullback against Australia, South Africa, France, Wales, England or Ireland? It's Ben Smith everytime.
Working in Jordie Barrett favour is his goal kicking. They will need a third goal-kicker in the squad alongside BB and Richie M. Jordie is probably more used to coming off the bench as well.
My guess is that both Ben Smith and Jordie Barrett will go to RWC 2019.
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@DrivingMaul said in RWC squad. Who's in, who's out?:
@nzzp More likely 11 Bridge, 14 Smith, 15 Barrett
I can clearly tell you're English
There's a clear preference the coaches have (and that I agree with in principle) for a power winger along with a couple of fullback-style players. Playing three fullback type players isn't going to happen in a big game ... it'd be Rieko (most likely) or Reece (remote possibliity) as the power wing
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@sparky We're in agreement with Jordie vs Ben. I think the signs are also pointing that Jordie and Ben will both be going.
But, if I was a selector, I'd take Josh Ioane and not Jordie. Which is pretty harsh on Jordie, but no more than several others. I see more value in having a third first five compared to a third fullback.
I think a 31 man squad is designed to allow 23 in the matchday team, plus eight spares - particularly in case someone gets injured the day before the match - one of each of: prop, hooker, lock, loose-forward, halfback, first five, midfielder, outside back.
If Beauden is playing fullback and say Rieko and Reece are the starting wings, Ben Smith is on the bench and Bridge is the spare - Jordie is the second spare.
But, we don't have any specialist back up at first five if Richie or Beauden gets injured the day before. We're just hoping whichever first five is left will be able to play 80 minutes.
Doesn't seem balanced to me.
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@Chris-B said in RWC squad. Who's in, who's out?:
@sparky We're in agreement with Jordie vs Ben. I think the signs are also pointing that Jordie and Ben will both be going.
But, if I was a selector, I'd take Josh Ioane and not Jordie. Which is pretty harsh on Jordie, but no more than several others. I see more value in having a third first five compared to a third fullback.
I think a 31 man squad is designed to allow 23 in the matchday team, plus eight spares - particularly in case someone gets injured the day before the match - one of each of: prop, hooker, lock, loose-forward, halfback, first five, midfielder, outside back.
If Beauden is playing fullback and say Rieko and Reece are the starting wings, Ben Smith is on the bench and Bridge is the spare - Jordie is the second spare.
But, we don't have any specialist back up at first five if Richie or Beauden gets injured the day before. We're just hoping whichever first five is left will be able to play 80 minutes.
Doesn't seem balanced to me.
Jordie will be injured at end of pool section.
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@Chris-B said in RWC squad. Who's in, who's out?:
@pakman Hansen with a sacrifice bunt to the kneecap?
With Richie and Beauden slated to play a lot of minutes across eight tests it will be pretty surprising if one of them doesn't pick up some sort of injury along the way.
Maybe they will rotate them through the group matches after SA?
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I may have been told last November by someone who may be a world cup winning 10 and current selector that Bridge was almost certainly going to Japan and that it might be a season too far for a certain long serving prop. Allegedly...
That conversation which I never did get around to writing up (too late now) suggests that the TWM actually have been working to a plan and may even know what they're doing; hard though it is to imagine that they could do a better job than the collective wisdom of The Fern.
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@dogmeat said in RWC squad. Who's in, who's out?:
.....suggests that the TWM actually have been working to a plan and may even know what they're doing; hard though it is to imagine that they could do a better job than the collective wisdom of The Fern.
Sez you!
Feckers have got a 50% winning record this year, which is marginally better than Ivan Vodanovich.
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@dogmeat said in RWC squad. Who's in, who's out?:
I may have been told last November by someone who may be a world cup winning 10 and current selector that Bridge was almost certainly going to Japan and that it might be a season too far for a certain long serving prop. Allegedly...
That conversation which I never did get around to writing up (too late now) suggests that the TWM actually have been working to a plan and may even know what they're doing; hard though it is to imagine that they could do a better job than the collective wisdom of The Fern.
#trusttheprocess
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Jordie brings back a few memories of Toeava,
maligned but the coaches seem to like him .His versatility could come in handy in a WC , I can remember toeava doing a similar thing in 11, think he played fb, wing and midfield in pool games, allowed us to rest players with niggles.
