Countdown to RWC 2019 - ABs state of the play
-
@crucial said in Countdown to RWC 2019 - ABs state of the play:
@billy-tell said in Countdown to RWC 2019 - ABs state of the play:
2017 is out of the way, and all the top sides will start looking towards 2019. There is probably really only the June internationals 2018 for NH & SH to experiment a bit, it will be full strength for the 2018 6N, and the EOYT 2018 will be used by NZ as a dry run for the RWC knockouts you would think, especially with a match against England on the cards.
So with only 31 players available for a RWC squad, where is NZ at?
1. LH Prop
Moody is a cert. I think Crockett will be gone. Steve Hansen has said the ABs want Atu Moli to switch permanently to LH. And there is Kane Hames. You suspect Moody starting, Hames as squad starting back-up, Moli as bench option is the plan.
3. TH Prop
Franks. Laulala. Tu'angafasi. Franks as the starter. Laulala as the back-up. Ofa as the bench option - should be in prime form by the time we reach 2019.
RWC => Likely only 5 props taken, my pick is Moody, Moli, Franks, Laulala and Tu'angafasi.
2. Hooker
Coles, Taylor and Aumua. Surely Aumua will go past Harris and maybe even Taylor.
RWC => Coles, Taylor, Aumua
4 & 5. Locks
Retallick, Whitelock, and Barrett are certainties for mine. I was quite disappointed in PT's tour. Romano is getting on a bit. Don't think Bird is good enough, and might be heading overseas
RWC => Retallick, Whitelock, Barrett and I'll say Tuipolotu, but there is a room for a new face, or the ABs might go with the 6/emergency lock like they did for 2015
6, 7 & 8. Loose-forwards
Cane, Read are certainties. After that it becomes murky. For back-up 7 Todd has currently overtaken Savea. The selectors seem to favour Squire as the 6, but we have Kaino, Fafita and Ioane in the mix. It could be argued the 2 best 6 options (Vito, Luatua) are overseas.
RWC => Cane, Read, Todd, Ioane, Squire
9. Halfback
Smith, TJP and maybe the Crusaders Drummond. You'd think TKB would start for any other test side, aside from Ireland...
RWC => Smith, TJP, Drummond
10. First-five
I'm just going to say RWC => Barrett starting, Mounga as starting backup, McKenzie as 10/15 supersub
12, 13. Centres
Coaches preferred starting pair is SBW & Crotty. Last RWC squad has 2 more centres, I'd say ALB and either Laumape or Goodhue. It's the joke on here, but if Ngatai has an injury free 2018 and a good season, he is not totally out of the picture.
RWC => SBW, ALB, Crotty, Goodhue or Laumape
11, 14, 15
Who knows? Ioane and Smith would seem certainties. Last RWC we took 4. So I'd say Jordie Barrett and NMS. Of the other options (Naholo, Dagg, Savea, Havili, Tamanivalu, Duffie) it will take something special. Dagg has past form, but he is slower and slower these days.
RWC => Ioane, Smith, Barrett, NMS.
I think we are in a good spot 2 years out - we need to find a settled 6 and a back-up 8, work out who really are the 4 best midfielders, and choose from the usual range of wing/fullback options. There are always newbies, certain positions are asking for a bolter: a 4th lock, 6/8, 3rd halfback strike me as the most likely.
So this was the position back in November. Not a huge amount has changed.
- Moody a cert. A bit open on options for backup after injuries for some contenders
2. Aumua out of the running IMO. Selectors have made their bed with Harris and hopefully it will be as third option. - Think Laulala may go as the starting option unless Franks has a burst into life. He looks on the decline to me.
4/5. As above unless there is a bolter - THE big grey area. Struggling to replace JK let alone have a couple of options
- As above
- Would hope that this will be Read and Akira by the time the Cup rolls around
- TTT has emerged and looks to be solid enough to invest in.
- As above
12/13. As above, although Ngatai is well gone.
11/14/15 Smith, Ioane, JB and a bolter.
Aumua has been injured. I bloody well hope he is not out of the running given how poor Harris has been. Given the AB selectors don't generally drop players due to injury I expect him to come back in when fit.
- Moody a cert. A bit open on options for backup after injuries for some contenders
-
@no-quarter Although I also hope he's not out of the running, the not-dropping-players-due-to-injury has so far only been applied to incumbents/valuable regulars. Aumua has only had 12 minutes against the Baabaas and 14 minutes against France XV, so that doesn't apply to him. He has also played in only 4 SR games for a total of 77 minutes. To earn an AB spot, I think he'll need to have a great Mitre 10 Cup season. I've no doubt he can do that (if fit). Can't wait for him to push Harris and Coltman out of the 16 jersey or out of the squad, but he'll need to prove again why he should be considered.
-
My attempt at a 31 man RWC squad and makeup. With in the right columns a player either very unlucky (e.g. Laumape) or close to the likely 3rd choice (e.g. Coltman v Harris etc) or no stand out 3rd choice and perhaps a future looking coaching cartel who weren't retiring en-masse after the tournament might pick a youngster if no outstanding 3rd choice (E.g. Aumua or TTT).
Jumping the gun posting this yet, as after the weekend will know so much more. But I'm not going to let go waste my little excel doc I create from myself to muddle through my preferred split .....
I've gone a 14/17 split.
I don't have Fifita even in my second column. I also don't have Squire or L Whitelock, but 6 is still the gaping hole 2 years on from when the gaping hole opened. I actually have 3 and 1/2 opensides as the 6s are just so un-compelling. I'm open to replacing Todd if Frizell takes his chance, or maybe even with safe Luke. Soft-power value of Todd's recent Japanese experience is swaying me a bit.
I don't have an unlucky 4th first-five (very thin here).
I also don't have Reece in my squad, maybe he should be in the second column of the unluckies, but I rate Ennor very highly anyway. I also would have doubts if he is even in the country in 4 years time to build on any experience he might gain from going as a non-starter- so would be a potential waste of a spot IMO.
-
-
@Rapido said in Countdown to RWC 2019 - ABs state of the play:
Just realised I forgot entirely about Jacobson. Who actually gives me wood. But giving time to Jacobson takes time away from papali'i. Better to make a choice and stick with it at this late stage
It depends where you need more cover IMO. They both cover all three, but Jacobson is the better 7 and Papali'i is the better 6
-
@Rapido said in Countdown to RWC 2019 - ABs state of the play:
Just realised I forgot entirely about Jacobson. Who actually gives me wood. But giving time to Jacobson takes time away from papali'i. Better to make a choice and stick with it at this late stage
Awesome, but I wonder if he has the conditioning to last a tournament. He's young... amazingballs, but young
-
@Duluth said in Countdown to RWC 2019 - ABs state of the play:
It depends where you need more cover IMO. They both cover all three, but Jacobson is the better 7 and Papali'i is the better 6
You reckon? In the NZ U20s Jacobson was at 6 and Papalii at 7. Papalii was the no.7 for St Kents too.
Blindside flanker has always been Jacobson's main position followed by no.8.
I think both players have a big role to play in the ABs in the years to come but it might end up being a RWC cycle too early. I hope I'm wrong.
-
@Rapido I'd include Havili as one of the unlucky ones. Had a great SR season and IMO should have been picked instead of J Barrett.
And I can't imagine them taking Harris, who isn't even in the 41-squad.
I don't think they'll take 3 first five-eights, unless they like BB at fullback so much that he gets Dmac label as a player who's picked to play both 10 and 15. Josh Ioane, I don't even think he's an "unlucky one". He's more of a "lucky one" if he gets picked.
Jacobson v Papali'i is defintely an intresting one!
-
@Bovidae said in Countdown to RWC 2019 - ABs state of the play:
You reckon? In the NZ U20s Jacobson was at 6 and Papalii at 7. Papalii was the no.7 for St Kents too.
Papali'i has grown since then and Jacobson is relatively small for a Test match blindside. Jacobson is better over the ball.
-
I would absolutely take 3 10s, and so by default that is Josh Ioane who will be barely above uncapped at that stage. The offset is taking a 5th midfielder or a 5th outside back which just aren't required .
Ambition is just to play v the 2 minnows in our pool and for him to pray for BB and RM health.
-
@Duluth I understand what you are saying but I would consider both to be typical of the modern-day hybrid loose forward.
Outside of the top XV, I would prefer loose forwards, and outside backs for that matter, with some utility value in my RWC squad so one of them would be a better option than a specialist who can't cover as many positions.
-
@Rapido said in Countdown to RWC 2019 - ABs state of the play:
I would absolutely take 3 10s, and so by default that is Josh Ioane who will be barely above uncapped at that stage.
I think they may be contemplating using TJP and JB as 3rd options at 1st 5. TJP has played there in one of those game of three halves. I'm not saying he starts in any of the pool games but could be used as the reserve against Namibia, for example. They could rotate BB and RM in the other pool matches.
-
@Bovidae said in Countdown to RWC 2019 - ABs state of the play:
I understand what you are saying but I would consider both to be typical of the modern-day hybrid loose forward.
Sure, thats the reason they are both in the reckoning - they can play all 3 positions.
They don't have the same strengths though. Papali'i is the size and shape of a blindside, but his workrate means he can cover 7 at a pinch.
Jacobson is smaller but more of a genuine allrounder.If it is a shoot out between them (I have a feeling they both miss out..) the deciding factor might be how well each flank is covered by other players.
