Ireland vs All Blacks (2018)
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I think it’s time to face the fact that this AB team is good, but not great. It’s going to be a cracking World Cup, but our chances are as low as they’ve been since 1991. That's probably good for rugby, but it also shows how very very lucky we've been for, well, about 10 years really.
Ireland play a great pattern, were incredibly accurate, and took their opportunities well, while (mostly) shutting us down. They deserve the No. 1 world ranking and I assume took it with this victory. They also rightly showed that the current balance of power in world rugby has tipped to the North. The Wallabies suck, and the Saffas come and go, while the most consistent teams in the last three years are all from the North. We should recognize that, then set out to destroy it.
From looking at the overall stats, it’s two evenly matched teams (territory, possession, defense percentage, kicks in play, clean breaks, defenders beaten all the same or very close) with them having the territory and possession edge in the first half and us in the second. The game was broken open by one excellent play from them to score a very good try, with us also conceding a greater number of turnovers, and more than twice as many penalties - some of them absolute coach killers from some of our most experienced players (5/11 from Whitelock and Read).
On another day, the movement that they scored from may have been shut down, and Read may have picked up the charge down and given it to Goodhue, and we’d be celebrating a close AB victory. If Rieko's break or another had been finished, we'd be celebrating a good win.
Luckily, that didn't happen, because whether or not this is the loss that this team needed or not, it was certainly the loss that we needed. I've seen posters crowing about us putting 20 points on them in the lead up, and following the loss others hoping that this is due to us 'saving' stuff for next year. Well, that is a fucking dream. We couldn't break down the Lions and we couldn't break down this team, with, let's face it, pretty much our first choice team minus two, while Ireland were missing at least as many big names - especially Murray, which makes them even harder to beat. It's time to face the fact that this All Black team is good, but not great.
This AB team may be able to win a WC. However, as @rotated pointed out very well, very few of this team have experienced real difficulty in the AB jersey, and strangely their continued failures seem to be explained away: This post 2015 team did not win a series against the Lions; has lost to Ireland twice; has not had the highest win percentage (in comparison to the other top three teams) during any year since Richie stopped pulling on the black jersey (England, England, Ireland, source: ESPN statsguru); and has conceded more tries (per game) than any other AB team of the professional era.
Beyond the fact that we should be celebrating the rise of an excellent and well-coached Ireland team, the simple fact is that we, as fans, need to clearly recognize that this team is not that good. They aren't as poor as 1998, but neither are they really that strong, and as @mariner4life points out very well in his post, there are just too many questions about strategy and selection - and the gap between. We appear to have too many old-timers or out-of-formers and as everyone gets older, how are we maintaining our supposed attack? On the back of huge run metres from Barrett, B Smith, Ioane, and Dmac. Of our 338 metres in this match, more than 50% (about 170) come from those four players, which is fine, but equally our forwards are not making enough metres. To put this in perspective, our highest running forward (Savea with 23) only ran as much as their fourth highest forward (O'Mahony) as Ireland got 173 metres out of their forwards, while we managed only 102 from ours. Only three of our 13 forwards ran for more metres than their counterparts (Taylor with 12 versus Best's 4; Retallick with 9 compared to Toner's 4; and COles with 7 compared to Cronin's 3), while their loosies killed us with about twice as many running metres (100 odd versus 50 idd, including subs). As many have stated, we miss some ball-running capability. It's not happening in the midfield either where our starters got 27 touches (12 passes, 15 runs, 41 metres) while theirs got 47 (15 passes, 32 runs, 51 metres). Were we chasing and regathering like two years ago, that might be ok, but we aren't.
The Ireland try came about from almost exactly the same manipulation as England’s try last week, but this time relied on a chip chase. I’m not sure we can be better defend that manipulation than we did today , although perhaps Smith could make a better decision. It seems that we can be manipulated easily though. So, who is the defense coach and is this system that good?
On the other hand, two weeks in a row, we were out-coached with teams having plays deliberately set up to take advantage of our defensive systems, yet we produced what to combat theirs? Chip kicks. Maybe I'm being unfair, but my dad could give the same analysis about using little kicks behind against a rushing defense. Is it possible that Ireland (and the Lions) had also thought about that and have systems in place for trying to deal with it? Is it possible that our attack coach is not really coming up with anything innovative about how to break these teams down? Aren't we really just about the same as the 1998 - 2003 teams in relying on some brilliance from our outsides?
We’ve also got skill problems limiting our attack. Beyond the kicking and dropped balls, we have turned into a team with poor passing - when we had chances today, we often had bad passes - TJP’s to Ofa which resulted in a penalty jumps out here, but it's also been a pattern this year (e.g., Smith to Savea vs England). Do we miss Nick the kick? Who is our skills coach, and do they need the boot?
The 2011 winning team was coached by a group of individuals who weren't complacent - can our coaches say that about themselves?
Are they good enough or skilled enough to know what complacency looks like?
Is Kieran Read in the the same league as McCaw in that he should never be taken off? I just don’t see him being the same leader, and when he’s poor, he rarely turns it around mid game. He’s been so up and down this year, and our performance next year is really reliant on his form and leadership, because as @mariner4life explains, there doesn’t appear much planning behind him. I think @Duluth may be right in that a move to 6 could work, with a ball runner such as Akira as the primary midfield pod runner, with Read moving back out to the left and Taylor on the right. The problem with that is whether he still has the speed for that (as M4L mentioned), but at least he should be strong enough to be the lone forward in ruck attendance out there. If he doesn't move, what is our strategy for our forwards? Can Read get back to full fitness? Where and how are we covering the ground to run teams down, and who is doing it? Barrett? Dmac? Seems pretty easy to counteract that, so who and where are the hard yards being put it?
Furthermore, have we stopped at the 1-3-3-1? Ireland made it look pretty easy to defend against. If we can't run teams down by going behind them or side to side, ala Backadder Crusaders, what is the back-up plan? And, who are the players to put that in action? It's not so much the defeat today, as the total lack of ideas by - supposedly - some of the most gifted players on the planet. Perhaps, just perhaps, those players need us to make a little more space for them to do their work?
So, up front, beyond the loosies and locks - where we will hopefully never have BBBR in such bad form again - is being good at set piece really enough? Poor old Karl found out what it's like to come up against the best today (8 tackles, 2 misses, 0 passes, 0 runs, 0 metres, 1 penalty conceded). Let's hope it was a good 'learning'. Furlong jumps out with his performance - not only at set piece, but also around the field - and it is backed up by the stats (6 tackles, no miss, 6 passes, 11 runs, 22 metres, 1 defender beaten) while he was also supported by Healy (12 metres) and McGrath (10 metres off 5 runs). Is there a reason why we can't get better help around the field from our front rowers? It's not to say that Franks did poorly - he put in a good shift on defense (17 made, 1 missed, 3 runs, 2 metres). However, I think this game really throws in to light a potential problem about us only expecting our tighties to scrum and clean. Don't we also ask all our players to clean when needed - poor fucking Dmac is in there half time when the ball goes wide. So, what's up? Is it due to our forwards coach only really being a scrum coach?
I'm no pro and I'm sitting on my couch writing this, but I think that this statement is a fair enough reflection of where they are at: This AB team isn't great. The first step to solving a problem is recognizing that you have one.
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@mariner4life said in Ireland Vs All Blacks:
Oh, and one more, we are kicking a lot, but our kicks are shit. Either 10m too long, or 10m too short. We contest fuck all, just hand the ball back. Barrett, Smith especially, and DMac need to take responsibility for that, it's just not good enough. Our contested kicks used to be the weapon that got us out of our end, now they just invite endless pressure.
And what is with the mealy mid-range nothing kick offs we can't contest, or that force them back in to the corner?
Was at the game, and may be getting senile, but I had the strongest feeling ABs were holding things back. None of the kick offs were contested in the way we know they can be. Back moves very vanilla until Ioane lineout one, which was timed beautifully.
Difficult to beat Irish with a few tired/rusty (Whitelock/Read/BBBR) and one arm behind our back.
For me we were the better team in second spell, but lost it 7-3. And when the ABs started to get serious (you could see the difference from the stands) after the Irish try, the Irish were just hanging on. Another 10 mins and it would have been ours.
Hard to be a Kiwi amongst 80,000 Micks, though (as generous as they were)!
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Anyone got an aspirin?
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@nta said in Ireland Vs All Blacks:
@nzzp the Irish turned down easy kickable penalties in the first half to go for the line. They were extremely confident in their defence stopping the ABs at the line, or chasing down any breaks the ABs made. Their set piece was working - though their scrum wasn't as dominant as everyone thinks - besides a couple of early shoves where Karl got stood up, the ABs held their own.
I thought it looked a bit suspicious but too far away for good view. I have great confidence though that Barnes doesn't know his Rrrs from his elbow at scrumtime.
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Without reading the whole thread I really dislike this idea that we are "keeping the powder dry' for the RWC. It just shits all over the All Blacks legacy. Like really? Another historic loss to Ireland because we want to keep our winning game plan up our sleeve? Fuck that shit, the All Blacks should be playing every game like it's a RWC final - win at all costs. I was really proud of our record against teams like Ireland. These losses really hurt.
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@no-quarter said in Ireland Vs All Blacks:
Without reading the whole thread I really dislike this idea that we are "keeping the powder dry' for the RWC. It just shits all over the All Blacks legacy. Like really? Another historic loss to Ireland because we want to keep our winning game plan up our sleeve? Fuck that shit, the All Blacks should be playing every game like it's a RWC final - win at all costs. I was really proud of our record against teams like Ireland. These losses really hurt.
yeah, but
Ireland have been seriously good for some time. They should have beaten us in Christchurch a few years ago. They should have beaten us in Dublin in 13. They did beat us in Chicago.
Look, I hate losing as much as the next guy, but I'm more tolerant of losing to a well coached team that plays some rugby and is disciplined. Ireland did that - they got better, took themselves to another level, and play a gameplan that few teams have the discipline and structure to pull off.
As for keeping the powder dry, I hope that Hansen has a plan to unlock the rush that we can dish out next year. If we don't, we're farked. Also: those boys out there today looked tired. Next year the load on them will be a lot less; probably a B side to SA, and not a lot of travel during the pre world cup warmup
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@no-quarter yeah exactly how I feel. I think this test was a lot about restoring our (my) perceived (probably arrogantly) order of things. This loss really hurt a massive chunk of fans I reckon (hi @Snowy), surely we can't be that fucked that we can't possibly put some up the sleeve shit together to keep us out in front and keep a cherished legacy. Someone asked about keeping our lossless record or getting a world cup, I'd easily take the former (although to be fair that's probably coloured by the last 8 years).
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@bones also, as we said for years, you can rack up world cups relatively quickly. Records, on the other hand, take decades to put together. Our outstanding historic record is now coupled with 3 world cups, and suddenly we look (or certainly looked!) dominant.
That said, I'm in the 'good not great' AB side -- and the NH sides have picked up their games massively. Going to be tasty next year
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@victor-meldrew said in Ireland Vs All Blacks:
Agreed. Crotty's (and Goodhue's) defence kept us in this game at times
Even when Goodhue missed a tackle he didn't. How he hung on to that blokes shirt, goodness knows?
I am hoping we have seen the end of SBW and the shirt term future is with Crotty and Goodhue.
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@hooroo said in Ireland Vs All Blacks:
@victor-meldrew said in Ireland Vs All Blacks:
Agreed. Crotty's (and Goodhue's) defence kept us in this game at times
Even when Goodhue missed a tackle he didn't. How he hung on to that blokes shirt, goodness knows?
I am hoping we have seen the end of SBW and the shirt term future is with Crotty and Goodhue.
You are obsessed.
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@hooroo said in Ireland Vs All Blacks:
I am hoping we have seen the end of SBW and the shirt term future is with Crotty and Goodhue.
That looks the safest combo for RWC2019. Still think ALB could do with more game time.
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@no-quarter the powder dry suggestion only comes about as an explanation for why the team didn't try anything really of substance attack wise.
It's for sure shit but apart that explanation what do we have to explain some fucken insipid attack and passive, for the most part, defence.It's not a yyayyy we're keeping things up our sleeves, but, more a:
Well, how to explain that shit showing? -
@nzzp said in Ireland Vs All Blacks:
Look, I hate losing as much as the next guy, but I'm more tolerant of losing to a well coached team that plays some rugby and is disciplined. Ireland did that - they got better, took themselves to another level, and play a gameplan that few teams have the discipline and structure to pull off.
Fair point. I'm not pissed off when we lose to a better team.
I AM pissed off when we make tons of stupid mistakes, give away dumb penalties, don't think on our feet, panic and generally play like shit - and then lose.
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@victor-meldrew said in Ireland Vs All Blacks:
@nzzp said in Ireland Vs All Blacks:
Look, I hate losing as much as the next guy, but I'm more tolerant of losing to a well coached team that plays some rugby and is disciplined. Ireland did that - they got better, took themselves to another level, and play a gameplan that few teams have the discipline and structure to pull off.
Fair point. I'm not pissed off when we lose to a better team.
I AM pissed off when we make tons of stupid mistakes, give away dumb penalties, don't think on our feet, panic and generally play like shit - and then lose.
I'm ok with that having happened in this match.
We have been so dominant for so long that we needed that as I think we have forgotten how to play under pressure. I'm likely wrong but the last match like that was the 8-7 2011 Final.
It will highlight that we need to be able to work under pressure. Keep executing the simple stuff well before we try and cut loose.
To me, this particular loss has come at the perfect time and I also feel they kept kicking the ball away to make sure we have tricks in the book for next year.
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Hope you're right. I was happy with the England win as they were generally composed after absorbing the pressure for 20 minutes and toughed it out - just the sort of game they needed. They were the opposite last nite.
Not too sure I buy into the "keeping the powder dry" argument, but much better they play badly and lose now rather than in RWC2019. I still feel the scars of Cardiff in '07....
