How are the AB's tracking heading into the BIL series?
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@gt12 said in How are the AB's tracking heading into the BIL series?:
I'm not sure that Barrett has done enough to keep out Pat T.
I wouldn't be surprised to see one of Todd or Ardie to miss out and carry an extra 6/8.
What has Pat T done this season?? If he makes the squad it'll be on potential alone.
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Not too much to debate, but I don't think they'll pick Luatua, so with that in mind, I think they will take three 7s. Accordingly, I think I'd go 19/14 and carry an extra loosie (such as an all rounder like Elliot or Messam ahead of Luatua - who is playing better, but I don't see him getting picked).
Forwards (19):
Dane Coles (Hurricanes), Codie Taylor (Crusaders), Nathan Harris (Chiefs) with Coltman and Parsons on standby
Owen Franks (Crusaders), Charlie Faumuina (Blues), Joe Moody (Crusaders), Wyatt Crockett (Crusaders), Ofa Tu'ungafasi (Blues) with Hames and Laulala on standby
Brodie Retallick (Chiefs), Sam Whitelock (Crusaders), Luke Romano (Crusaders), Pat T (Blues), with Barrett and Bird on standby
Kieran Read (Crusaders, captain), Liam Squire (Highlanders), Jerome Kaino (Blues), Elliot Dixon (Highlanders), Ardie Savea (Hurricanes), Sam Cane (Chiefs), Matt Todd (Crusaders) with Luatua or Messam ready depending on who is still a bit sick, with Seu, Fifita, Shields, Taufua, and Gibson also on standbyBacks (14 - 15):
Aaron Smith (Highlanders), TJ Perenara (Hurricanes), Tawera Kerr-Barlow (Chiefs) with Pulu on standby
Beauden Barrett (Hurricanes), Aaron Cruden (Chiefs), Lima Sopoaga (Highlanders) with Mo'unga, Mackenzie and Beaver on standby
Ryan Crotty (Crusaders), Sonny Bill Williams (Blues), Anton Lienert-Brown (Chiefs), Malakai Fekitoa (Highlanders) with half the world on standby - Moala, Taimanivalu, Laumape, Proctor, Barracuda, Goodhue, Aso, J. Barrett, Beaver
Israel Dagg (Crusaders), Julian Savea (Hurricanes), Waisake Naholo (Highlanders), Ben Smith (Highlanders) with Mackenzie, Ioane, Duffie, J. Barrett, and Nanai on standbyInjured: NMS
I'm not super happy about the form of Fekitoa (although he's been better lately), and there are a bunch of guys coming back from injury....
Luatua is playing well and I'd take him, but I've tried to pick the team they'll select here.
I'd love to see Messam get one last series, but he might be in Rodders land now, though. -
That's a good point.
See also: Coles, Harris, Read, Sopoaga, SBW, Fekitoa, J. Savea, and Dagg
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@ACT-Crusader Odd, because driving home last night (I live in London), I was musing that the selectors see Crotty very much as a 12 (they picked Nonu and SBW as 12s in RWC, leaving Crotty at home). I see he and SBW as certs for 12. Then we need at least one specialist 13, and on reflection Fekitoa fits that bill, even though like others I fret when I see his 'headless chicken' look in attack. Switched on PC and saw article.
For me it is close. As commented on, Foxy has indicated 18/15, so one less forward and one more back.
On balance I'd add Ioane to backs and Todd unluckily out, but will attend squad training. -
@gt12 said in How are the AB's tracking heading into the BIL series?:
That's a good point.
See also: Coles, Harris, Read, Sopoaga, SBW, Fekitoa, J. Savea, and Dagg
I'm not quite sure what you are trying to say. Players like Coles Read Savea are proven ABs. Pat T has yet to definitively stamp his mark on the black jersey. You're comparing apples and oranges.
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@Crucial said in How are the AB's tracking heading into the BIL series?:
This is the squad I expect to see named. All the key players with injuries just coming right will be named.
5 Props: Moody, Crockett, Franks, Faumuina, Ofa
3 Hookers Coles, Taylor,ColtmanHarris
4 Locks: BBBR, Whitelock, Romano, S Barrett
6 Loose Forwards: Cane, Read, Kaino, A Savea, Todd, Squire3 Halfbacks: TJP, TKB, A Smith
3 10s: BB, AC, Sopoaga
4 Midfielders: Crotty, ALB, SBW,R Ioane, Fekitoa
4 Outsides: B Smith, Dagg, J Savea, Naholo
1 Utility: D Mac/JBThose invited to camp to hear the gameplan as 'just in case' call ups would include. If anyone is out for the series early on then these are the next in line.
Hames, Laulala
HarrisColtman
Bird, PT, Fifita
Luatua, Dixon, Shields, A Ioane
Pulu
Fekitoa, Ngatai, R Ioane
NMS
JB/DMacMade a couple of changes to my earler guess. Harris looks to be tracking well enough to jump back in. Not sure on the fourth lock but the selectors seemed very pleased with what they got from SB on the EOYT.
Fekitoa looking steady enough and provides an option of ALB at 12 if Crotty isn't ready.
Big call will be JB or DMac -
I was suggesting that players who've been out with injury (or other circumstances) usually hold their place. Pat T was out with the no-drug drug test, then injured. He's hardly played, so I wonder whether he'll enjoy that past selection path. I probably shouldn't have put Fekitoa and J Savea in there, because that's a related argument about Super form also not seeming to matter so much to the panel.
However, Barrett did do well so far with his chances, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him there - I really like the way he gets about, but I think he's possible a bit small.
Now, that it seems it's 18/15, Mackenzie or Ioane to come in and I wonder who misses out - Luatua? But, surely, not three 7s? It would explain Ardie at 8 etc etc.
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@gt12 said in How are the AB's tracking heading into the BIL series?:
I was suggesting that players who've been out with injury (or other circumstances) usually hold their place. Pat T was out with the no-drug drug test, then injured. He's hardly played, so I wonder whether he'll enjoy that past selection path. I probably shouldn't have put Fekitoa and J Savea in there, because that's a related argument about Super form also not seeming to matter so much to the panel.
However, Barrett did do well so far with his chances, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him there - I really like the way he gets about, but I think he's possible a bit small.
Now, that it seems it's 18/15, Mackenzie or Ioane to come in and I wonder who misses out - Luatua? But, surely, not three 7s? It would explain Ardie at 8 etc etc.
Here's my logic on the loose forward mix.
Read plays 8 all game, therefore you are covering for an injury not a substitution or impact.
Kaino starts at 6 and can cover 8. If Read is injured out of the series then the same personell are athe likely ones to fill in. There won't be an 8 brought in to start.
Cane or Todd are starting 7s with Cane being the likely one. Neither are bench players but it is such a critical position you need squad cover for a starter. Ardie is a bench impact player.The only other option is to add a passenger to the squad as a 6/lock or 6/8 eg Luatua and have Todd doing his usual 'squad member that isn't' thing on the sidelines
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@gt12 said in How are the AB's tracking heading into the BIL series?:
I agree with all of that, except I'm a bit worried about Read, and I wonder why we need three 7s when we know Todd could come in and start from outside the squad.
But in reality what does 'worried about Read' mean?
If he is medically cleared to play he will be in the squad and will be playing 80 minutes. I don't think there is any in between situation.
On the offchance that he heals very slowly and they need to carry him without starting for the first test then obviously the squad would change but I suspect there will be an extra eg Luatua that is brought in and discarded afterwards
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Good point that they could carry someone as a 'training' member or whatever they are referred to.
My point is only that behind Squire, there is not much 6-8 cover and too much 7 cover - especially given that IMO Todd should really start or not be there. That's just Read, Kaino, and Squire covering three positions, and all three have, or are, recently injured.
To be fair, S Barrett or even Whitelock could solve the 6 problem, but it somehow looks unbalanced to me. I don't think either Cane or Ardie were very shit hot at 8, but as injury cover on the bench, maybe that's a risk that's worth taking. I'm sure we'll carry a lock anyway, so just one loosie - Is Ardie that guy?
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@gt12 said in How are the AB's tracking heading into the BIL series?:
Good point that they could carry someone as a 'training' member or whatever they are referred to.
My point is only that behind Squire, there is not much 6-8 cover and too much 7 cover - especially given that IMO Todd should really start or not be there. That's just Read, Kaino, and Squire covering three positions, and all three have, or are, recently injured.
To be fair, S Barrett or even Whitelock could solve the 6 problem, but it somehow looks unbalanced to me. I don't think either Cane or Ardie were very shit hot at 8, but as injury cover on the bench, maybe that's a risk that's worth taking. I'm sure we'll carry a lock anyway, so just one loosie - Is Ardie that guy?
Absolutely Ardie is that guy.
I would be dead keen on playing players with skillsets the Lions guys do not encounter much and have to adjust to.
Their loosies will cope absolutely fine with guys running straight at them. Having an Ardie rampage with late steps, arms and legs going everywhere and strength to get the ball away in contact is not their everyday meat and spuds -
I'm cool with Ardie going forward.
Where he was found out last year & lost out to Todd was he is very unimposing in defence. Cane puts in huge hits, he wins the tackle almost everytime, Ardie just rides the tackle down & looks to pilfer, which in test rugby lets the player over the gain line & sees you creamed by the player cleaning out.
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Seems like the general consensus in the midfield is that it will be Crotty, SBW, ALB and Fekitoa.
However, if Crotty should happen not to make it back in time, who would you replace him with?
Lots of options including several who have been there before, but haven't made the position their own - including Moala, Tamanivalu, Ioane and Ngatai.
To be honest, I'd be looking very closely at Goodhue - mainly competing against Ioane and Ngatai. But Rieko hasn't been playing at centre much and Charlie's seemingly under a significant cloud. Whereas Jack has pretty much pushed Seta out at the Crusaders.
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@Chris-B that's a tough question, judging by what the selectors have been saying I think Ioane is the next cab off the rank. He'd be a squad member for the first two tests as I would assume it'd be ALB-Fekitoa with SBW off the bench.
Goodhue has to be in consideration as does Proctor but debuting against the Lions is a pretty big ask. Laumape has to be in the same conversation as these two as well.
Ngatai has been out for way too long, and has ongoing issues, so won't be considered IMO. Moala just hasn't kicked on as I hoped and is unlikely to make the cut even with injuries. Seta is an interesting one having been there before but as you say he's been on the wing all year.
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@No-Quarter Yeah - I 'd think Charlie might be a bit low on confidence - even a bit gun shy - to be picked, even if he was playing this week.
Proctor would be in consideration if he was playing, but he's in the same concussion boat as several others.
Agree - it would be a big ask making your debut against the Lions, but whomever they would bring in would be pretty much an AB rookie.
Buckman or Laumape might be other options. Buckman's certainly got experience on his side.
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I think if Crotty is out for the Lions they will go with Reiko or Seta as squad cover. I don't think they'll necessarily get game time in the midfield because they will ride the series with the other 3 (SBW, ALB and Fekitoa).
Goodhue might only come into the equation if there is another frontline injury.
