The Silver Fern

@Derm-McCrum

With a two week break to the Scotland game I expect Farrell will go with a close to full strength team. I expect Conan to start, probably at 8 with Doris moving to 6, and POM getting a rest. Maybe Henderson for Ryan, Bealham for Furlong, and Sheehan getting a start. I think the backs will be full strength, with possibly Henshaw starting. Can’t see Farrell taking too many risks against the Scots.

@Dodge

Farrell has been very clever in how he’s prepared the squad for the pressure of consecutive high calibre opponents. Before last summers tour to NZ it was he who requested the two midweek Māori games as a way to put more pressure on the players, and he then sent a very young development squad to South Africa mid season.

During the 6ns in the spring Ireland had to find ways to overcome major disruption during and between games. They lost two hookers during the Scottish game, and had Van der Flier throwing into the lineout for practically the whole second half and still pulled away from a good Scottish side, and were decimated by injuries for the Italy match.

Outside of having a far better squad of players the big difference in this side from previous Irish sides is their mental strength and their ability to adapt to adverse circumstances mid game. Winning 16 on the trot, and 28 from 30, takes huge confidence and resilience, something they demonstrated in spades at the weekend. None of this means they’ll win the RWC but it would indicate that you can’t count on Irelands previous flakiness when predicting how they will respond in future games in the tournament.

What’s giving me some optimism as an Irish fan is the fact that the SA management seem to be reacting to Ireland in terms of tactics and selection. They really seem to be talking themselves up, which is something that generally you’d expect the lesser team to be doing. Dare I say it, but they sound and are acting like we used to sound and act when we knew that we were the underdogs. Might as well enjoy it while we can.

It’s new now, but you know how these innovations are refined and modified. For instance a guys optimum weight for 60 minutes might be 115 kg but if he’s only expected to be on the pitch for 45 perhaps it can be stretched to 120 kg or a little more. We’ve already seen it with props to a certain extent with the three replacement front rowers, but it’s frightening to think of backrowers putting on another 5 to 10 kg. I have no objection whatsoever to SA maxing their advantage within the current laws, but I do have concerns about where it might lead.

@DaGrubster

To be honest I think the concern is that a 7:1 split will encourage bigger NFL style forwards who will blow themselves out in 45/50 minutes, leading to bigger collisions and more head injuries, rather than SA not playing fair. I think it’s a justifiable concern at a time when the health of players and the potential financial impact for World Rugby and individual Unions are major worries.

Really pleased that Faz hasn't reacted to the 7:1 split and has the confidence to play his own style. Probably would have had McCarthy ahead of Henderson on the bench but very happy overall. 👍

Everyone is focusing on the possibility of them losing a back, but what happens if they replace all but one of their pack and then lose a couple of forwards in the second half. Do they pull the old blood or HIA stroke, or do they stick a back in there?

Wiese is an odd one. I’ve seen a lot of him playing for Leicester in the Gallagher Premiership and European Cup, and tbh he is one dimensional in the extreme. As an Irish fan I would be a lot more worried if Vermuelen was playing.

What will be very interesting is how Ireland will deal with the speed of the SA defence. It has been incredible for the last number of games and squeezes the life out of opposition attack. I think the multiple options that Irelands structure gives the player in possession might allow them to unpick it, but it also leaves us wide open to intercepts. Our scrum, as has been mentioned a few times before, is our achilles heel, especially with our replacement front row.

I’m actually one of those who hope that we meet France because I think our style of play, denying them broken field possession, really frustrates them. We were comfortably the better side in the 6ns and won that game by four tries to one pulling away. Not suggesting that this automatically means we should win if we meet in the qf, but it does give me some optimism. The ABs, even with our recent success against them, still frighten the crap out of me, probably because I’ve been watching them give us too many beatings since I first saw them live in the mid 70s.

@Bones

I think if Keenan doesn’t gather the ball then it’s called as a rugby incident, possibly a penalty to Ireland but probably not. Once Keenan does gather the ball the whole scenario changes because the obligation is now on Steward to make a legal tackle or avoid contact, and he does neither.

Awards for concussion injuries are a massive financial threat to World Rugby and individual Unions so I wouldn’t be holding my breath waiting for a change of interpretation anytime soon.

@cgrant

Ringrose, and not Sexton, was probably the biggest loss today. He’s the defensive leader and has been in outstanding form for the past 12 months, and he was a late withdrawal to make matters worse. In total Ireland were missing 8 starters, and came up against an excellent Italian side who probably put together their best 80 minutes 6ns performance. Obviously Ireland weren’t close to their best but to be honest they were probably as good as they were allowed to be. Full credit to Italy who are a very talented and well coached side.

@nostrildamus said in Ireland v South Africa:

@Halfout said in Ireland v South Africa:

Ireland have been playing superb rugby for the last couple of years so not sure where you’re coming from with this.

Wonderful stuff. This deserves to be saved and posted again in a few months. Thanks 50%.

Not sure how you take this as a prediction. It was a comment in response to a post about Irelands current style of play. But what ever floats your boat mate.

@KiwiMurph Ireland have been playing superb rugby for the last couple of years so not sure where you’re coming from with this. Did you miss the July series? You know, the one in New Zealand.

@broughie

The ABs will need to find a way to ensure attacking ball from the middle or back of the lineout. Ireland, with a weaker lineout than SAs, effectively shut down those areas and forced NZ to throw to the front. It’s very hard to launch midfield plays when Smith is forced to pass that distance. I think it’s part of the reason why Irelands rush defence was so effective. It’s also crap ball to maul off.

@stodders

With all due respect, practically all rugby fans are hypocrites. Only last week some guys were on here were giving out about Irelands use of the screen and dummy runners, tactics the ABs have used brilliantly for years. I’m fairly sure that those same posters weren’t ranting then about the ABs cheating.

Most of my rugby mates felt the Ta’avu red was harsh, and were delighted but a bit surprised that Porter didn’t get a red. I’m also surprised the disciplinary panel took the line they did, if only because it doesn’t make for great optics. I would be livid if the shoe was on the other foot, especially if we had lost, but to be honest we all remember the ones where we’ve been on the wrong end of a decision but quickly forget when we’ve got away with one.

@gt12 said in All Blacks vs Ireland - series decider:

Porter cleared, so fuck who knows. Probably the rule appears to be that the darker your jersey the better your chance of spending some time on sidelines.

Was it the same panel that heard Ta’avu’s case? If not, surely it makes sense that the same panel sit for all the matches of a series so that at least there’s an attempt at consistency.

As an Irish fan I thought Peyper, a ref I have very little time for, had not given enough weight to mitigation when he sent off Ta’avu, and that Barnes decision on Porter was correct after seemingly having had a change of mind about mitigation, but for the disciplinary panels to have such a different view of both incidents is really worrying.

It must be the most difficult spot to referee, with so many things happening at such speed simultaneously, but these panels are only looking at one incident with multiple angles with the laws laid out in front of them, and we still get these hugely inconsistent outcomes. WR needs to take a long hard look at the process.

@Hooroo

I think you have to include reckless alongside foul and intentional. I don’t think either the Ta’avu or Porter incident warranted red, but if you go back to Eng/Irl in the 6ns I’d argue the Hill fully deserved his red because it was the very definition of reckless. He came charging into a late tackle on a player leading with his head, but his lack of obvious intent was no defence.

@stodders said in All Blacks vs Ireland - series decider:

@stodders said in All Blacks vs Ireland - series decider:

@BerniesCorner said in All Blacks vs Ireland - series decider:

As stated Samisoni not starting , quite unfathomable
We are in perpetual sh*t until forwards 1-5 become consistently competitive.

NZ has enough raw material to work with. Need a better mix of ball players Vs workers. If you can't do your core job (throwing, lifting, scrummaging), offer nothing around the field and are a liability on defence, it is time to sit out until you show you can do it again. Consistently.

NZ miss someone like Franks who shifts bodies and does their core job well. They have a player like Mealamu in ST. Moody's drop off in form has been a big hit to the tight five.

Locks....there is some talent coming through, but they are green. But still enough to form a good enough tight five that is more than competitive.

@Steve said in All Blacks vs Ireland - series decider:

@stodders I don't think the insularity is a problem.

There is no sensible gameplan.

Look at the Ireland back 3. A Brumbie cast off, a NZ cast off and Hugo Keenan.

None of the 3 of them would get in New Zealands team.

Keenan is not Christian Cullen.

Hansen is a journey man and Lowe was being slagged by Chris Ashton for being slow and fat last year.

But the three of them catch all their kicks and kick back intelligently. They don't get tackled into touch, they recycle and they make their tackles.

James Lowes left boot is used the way Dagg's used to be. They play all the rugby in our half. Their wingers fall over the line from 5 yards for their tries. Will Jordan has to score his from 70 meters. They have a system and we don't. Imagine what Andy Farrell could do with Reece, Jordan and Jordie.

Every player on that Ireland team is squeezing every ounce out of their ability.

Ireland choose the players to fit the system and game plan. NZ seem to choose their best players and then the game plan.

Are NZ too scared to drop the stars for fear they will leave?

Keenan may be no Christian Cullen, but then again who is? I must admit I was stunned when he was first capped, but he quickly became one of my favourite players. He is a very complete fullback who is equally comfortable in defence or attack, and is rated by even English papers as the best full back in the NH. Low error and runs great support lines.

I’m not a fan of Lowe’s as I think his error rate is too high, but Hansen has been a revelation from his first touch in international rugby. He is a brilliant footballer who plays right across the line, and understands fully what Farrell wants. As was said he suits the multiphase game Farrell has put in place, and he has been outstanding for us, a real bolter. The ABs love strike runners on the wing, and they’ve produced some of rugby’s greatest wingers, but we don’t have a lot of Howletts or Lomus hanging about.

@Steve said in All Blacks vs Ireland - series decider:

@Halfout any opinion on the non red cards for Aki and Porter?

Ireland are clearly better coached and full value for the win.

But I can help but feel refereeing turned the last two tests in a huge way.

My view of those is the same as my view of Ta’avu’s red. I didn’t think he should have got a red, and I don’t think Aki or Porter should have got red. The incidents are being refereed on the basis of slow motion and multiple replays whereas they’re happening in split seconds.

On a more controversial note I believe LF should have got a straight red. He was stupidly reckless and completely out of control, and I think Barnes would have walked him, but Peyper is a poor ref who painted himself into a corner with the LF decision and then had to send Ta’avu off. I believe the action rather than outcome should be the deciding factor.

@Frye

As an Irish fan I didn’t see Schmidt’s highly prescriptive and structured gameplan being a good fit for the ABs, but after watching the last couple of games, and also the Autumn tests, I’m beginning to think that it might be exactly what they need.

The talent is there, but unlike previous AB sides there didn’t seem to be an appreciation that hard work needs to be done, and maintained for 80 minutes before you can start dreaming of record scores. The first half performance had a feeling of complacent side that assumed that the proper order would be restored simply because that’s what always happened. If Schmidt is appointed in a coaching roll a lot of those players are going to get a very rude awakening.

As an Irish fan I feel the Irish response in the second half was real proof of how the sides belief and discipline has developed way beyond what we thought was possible. Halfway through I was also guilty of believing that normal order was about to be restore,and that a massive collapse was looking inevitable, so to go on and win the game by 10 points was the stuff of dreams.

We have always believed NZ to be the ultimate test, and for us a series win won’t change that belief, so to go into your backyard and perform like this is unbelievable. I think I’m still in shock from last week to be honest, and I intend to really savour watching the game again, this time sitting on the sofa rather than hiding behind it.

The squad needs a coaching and culture change, but I believe that NZ has the players to turn this around for the RWC next year. They’ll need to because it is probably going to be the most competitive one we’ll have seen, with France, SA, England & Aus all improving, and with Ireland and Wales also having a big say.

F%@k it, I’m going to get monstrously pissed. 🍾😂