Australian Federal Election
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<p>Another seat falls to the Libs and they're 71-67 ahead. The ALP haven't picked up a seat in the last 24 hours as postals get counted, though they're still ahead in 4 of the remaining 7 seats.</p>
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<p>Libs get to 74 on that count, and only need a bit of love in the postal votes to take it.</p> -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="reprobate" data-cid="594516" data-time="1467791163"><p>jesus christ, that hanson is a moron, she's on the anti-vax too eh.</p></blockquote>
Basically take human history to the point just after Queensland got "the wireless" - that's where she wants it. But with less Asians. -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="NTA" data-cid="594412" data-time="1467772166"><p>
Mainly down south. A few up north with a handful of votes.</p></blockquote>
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Ma in law lives in Pirie ... what's the target population for an electorate?<br><br>
York Peninsula isnt exactly sparsely populated. -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="booboo" data-cid="594538" data-time="1467800564">
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<p>Ma in law lives in Pirie ... what's the target population for an electorate?</p>
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<p>I was trying to look that up - and found it here: <a data-ipb='nomediaparse' href='http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2010/08/enrolment-by-electorate-for-2010-election.html'>http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2010/08/enrolment-by-electorate-for-2010-election.html</a></p>
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<p>The site for the ABC's uber-nerd on election things, Antony Green.</p>
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<p>Average is 93,537 voters BUT the states have a minimum of 5 seats each, so Tasmania's electorates are only 71,575.</p>
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<p>UPDATE: Coalition now on 72 seats with 7 in doubt, and only 2 of those looking likely to be LNP/LIB</p>
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<p>Counting for those 7 electorates is around the 80% mark and the leader of each is only 50.1%-50.8% in front</p> -
<p>Currently eight votes separating the two candidates in Hindmarsh</p>
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<p>Coalition now on 73 while ALP has dropped to 66 - seems the ABC called one too early.</p>
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<p>6 in doubt - only 1 of which (Forde) indicates toward LNP at this stage, BUT of the 5 others:</p>
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<p>Hindmarsh is 50.0% with ALP ahead - 85.3% counted - still a shot for LNP here.</p>
<p>Cowan is 50.5% ALP with 81.4% counted</p>
<p>Capricornia is 50.5% ALP with 82.5% counted</p>
<p>Flynn is 50.8% ALP with 79.0% counted - reckon this one might go LNP as well.</p>
<p>Herbert is 50.4% ALP with 84.4% counted</p>
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<p>Only need those three seats (Forde, Hindmarsh, Flynn) to drop, and Turnbull is PM by the skin of his teeth</p> -
<p><strong><a data-ipb='nomediaparse' href='http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-08/antony-green-says-malcolm-turnbull-will-be-returned-as-pm/7580646'>Election 2016: Antony Green says Malcolm Turnbull will be returned as Prime Minister</a></strong></p>
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<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="NTA" data-cid="594648" data-time="1467860684">
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<p>Hindmarsh is 50.0% with ALP ahead - 85.3% counted - still a shot for LNP here.</p>
<p>Cowan is 50.5% ALP with 81.4% counted</p>
<p>Capricornia is 50.5% ALP with 82.5% counted</p>
<p>Flynn is 50.8% ALP with 79.0% counted - reckon this one might go LNP as well.</p>
<p>Herbert is 50.4% ALP with 84.4% counted</p>
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<p>Looking at the last 6 seats again:</p>
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<p>• Forde, Queensland — Liberal National Party’s lead has narrowed to 471 votes</p>
<p>• Flynn, Queensland — Labor’s lead of 674 votes has dropped to just seven votes</p>
<p>• Herbert, Queensland — Labor leading by 483 votes</p>
<p>• Capricornia, Queensland — Labor’s lead of 476 votes has dropped to 174 votes</p>
<p>• Cowan, Western Australian — Labor leading by 534 votes</p>
<p>• Hindmarsh, South Australia — Labor leading by 71 votes</p>
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<p>Reckon Mal might get Forde, Flynn, and Hindmarsh, and with the independents throwing their hat in just to get the bloody thing over with, that's government.</p> -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="barbarian" data-cid="594971" data-time="1467958782">
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<p>Also need to provide a speaker, </p>
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<p><img src="http://www.2gb.com/sites/default/files/field/image/20160129/bob_katter.jpg" alt="bob_katter.jpg"></p> -
<p>It would be a shame if they had to do something whacky and Slipperesque to keep the numbers. Tony Smith is a really good speaker, good speakers (Jenkins, Andrew in Aus, Lockwood-Smith in NZ) make for a much better and civil parliament. You get someone who doesn't understand the role like like Anna Burke, Bronwyn Bishop or Peter Slipper and it's chaos.</p>
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<p>Well, after a week of Shorten smiling and waving, he's struck his colours.</p>
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<p>A couple of the independents have stated their preference to form a government, which was an indicator that they don't want another shit fight (otherwise known as "election day") to ensue, and that has pretty much sealed it.</p>
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<p>There are now only 5 seats in doubt, 2 of which look like going to the Coalition and the other 3 to the ALP.</p>
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<p>Flynn is 81.2% counted and 50.3% LNP</p>
<p>Capricornia is 84.9% counted and 50.1% LNP</p>
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<p>Cowan is 79.4% counted and currently 50.3% ALP</p>
<p>Hindmarsh is 83.4% counted and moving slightly back to the ALP at 50.2% (having been less than a hundred votes on Friday)</p>
<p>Herbert is 82.0% counted and 50.2% ALP</p>
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<p>All seats show a swing to the ALP between "fuck all" and around 6.5%.</p>
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<p>So we've kind of got the government we deserve, and the Coalition are going to have to tread carefully to avoid pissing off their temporary alliance with the crossbench, or they're going to have trouble even getting things to the Senate.</p>
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<p>Which is another kettle of fish - so far the numbers in the Senate have 11 seats in doubt, with firming numbers as:</p>
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<p>26 Coalition (+2 likely)</p>
<p>23 ALP (+2)</p>
<p>3 Greens (+3)</p>
<p>1 One Nation </p>
<p>2 Xenophon (+1)</p>
<p>0 Derryn Hinch +1 likely</p>
<p>1 Jacqui Lambie "Network"</p>