Highlanders 2025
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@KiwiInLondon said in Highlanders 2025:
or is that wishful thinking
I think there’s definitely potential but looking at your proposed back five, I would think that many of the same issues of the past few Highlanders’ seasons would persist. In that back five, there are plenty of good lineout targets and a lot of hardworking defenders but I’m not sure there are enough dynamic carriers who can make a lot of metres.
I’ve taken a quick look at some NPC stats of your proposed starting locks and loosies (RugbyPass stats, so not very precise but still), focusing on their number of carries, metres made and average metres per carry. This was the resulting table (opposition in the final column):
Broughton stands out, both in total number of carries and average metres per carry, which is to be expected of a number 8 I suppose. But he’s having a great season for Bay of Plenty. The others put up solid enough numbers. The second row of Holland and Dunshea might lack a carrying threat, though. Dunshea had one game against Waikato where he racked up a lot of metres but in others, like against Canterbury, he doesn’t make a carry. Holland offers a good work-rate but doesn’t make a lot of metres per carry (0.9).
Compared to other Super Rugby second row options (for example, the Blues with McWhannell (avg. 7.4 carries; 15.2 m; 2.09 m/c), Beehre (avg. 8.8 carries; 16.4 m; 2.56 m/c), and Suafoa (avg. 16.2 carries; 24.8 m; 1.58 m/c), not to mention someone like Tuipulotu), this might be a little too light as a carrying unit. I’d argue that the lack of ball-carrying forwards – the Highlanders front row doesn’t really offer a lot there, either – was a real problem last Super Rugby season as well (Holland and Dunshea combined for 7 carries and 9 metres made in last year’s quarterfinal against the Brumbies).
One interesting option would be to play someone like Oli Haig at lock. This would open up the blindside spot for someone like Hugh Renton (avg. 15.6 carries; 37.2 m; 2.26 m/c), allowing the carrying duties to be more evenly distributed among the back five. It would make the Highlander attack less predictable, instead of relying too much on a single player (Harmon last year, Broughton this year) to make something happen.
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@Mauss great stats and thanks for the effort. I think a lot of the carrying stats for the Otago NPC players is offset by an incredibly poor game plan. A lot of those players are more than capable of big runs but the one off carries off 9 and lack of dynamic attacking play past the 3-4 phase gives little room for the forward to get into space.
The likes of Holland, Haig, and Withy are all very good runners and decisions makers in open space, and good at passing and offloading. I think a decent game plan will help them a lot.
Only apprehension with Broughton is that he makes the good run but lacks in the physicality department, particularly on the offensive ruck.
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@KiwiInLondon Yeah, you could well be right about the Otago game plan. I also looked at Stodart's carry numbers and it's quite similar: high volume of carries with not a lot of result. The Otago gameplan is quite conservative, especially in the opposition 22, resorting mostly to the pick and go.
I do think someone like Holland, if he wants to make the step up to the next level, will have to show a little more when carrying into contact. A bit more aggression and leg drive, and I think he would become a very complete player.
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@frugby said in Highlanders 2025:
@HLD2023Champions said in Highlanders 2025:
@SouthernMann Gilbert and Nareki need to go, too many Otago players in that team. They’re all has beens.
Nareki is looking offshore for the end of the year last I heard, but still a very good winger - him and Gilbert are not even on the same planet.
i also just want to add i think Gilbert has been done no favours but being shuffled around wherever we're weak
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@Kiwiwomble said in Highlanders 2025:
@frugby said in Highlanders 2025:
@HLD2023Champions said in Highlanders 2025:
@SouthernMann Gilbert and Nareki need to go, too many Otago players in that team. They’re all has beens.
Nareki is looking offshore for the end of the year last I heard, but still a very good winger - him and Gilbert are not even on the same planet.
i also just want to add i think Gilbert has been done no favours but being shuffled around wherever we're weak
I used to think this, was plausible, but I actually think the bigger thing that screwed Gilbert over was that ACL injury. He initially shook it off pretty well, but in the space of two years all his pace has gone. He would be a liability as an outside back now I think, which is a shame.
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@KiwiInLondon said in Highlanders 2025:
The Highlanders have the potential to have the best lineout, maul, and lock and loose forward combo (including the bench) in the comp imo. If Millar keeps going and the centres stay healthy, there’s a lot of potential (or is that wishful thinking)
Injuries will be key. Because of depth, de Groot, Holland and Fakatava pretty much have to stay fit for us to have any chance of competing at the business end.
We have a reasonably good draw I feel, so if we can hit the ground running them, definitely a good chance at the Top 6.
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I’d love another big enforcer in the loose forwards, just like how the chiefs singed Jerome Brown. And possibly another classy centre.
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Hope the landers have a plan to sign another First Five. Can’t fully rely on both these young fellas
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@HLD2023Champions Miller is fine and is good and has the potential to be great. Falefega is an idiot who’s should go back to club rugby (why no one sees this is beyond me).
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Exactly what I mean. Just need another 10 to cover Miller with a bit of experience..
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@HLD2023Champions what’s Carter up to these days?
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@KiwiInLondon at Chemist wharehouse, in all seriousness I guess Aaron Cruden would be the experienced 10 to ask if he's keen.
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Jack of all trades, master of none Sam Gilbert will be the third 10. Hurley at a stretch will be the fourth
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@Bones his decision making is absolutely atrocious. The chip and cross fields kicks in pressure situations, the miss tackles. I could go on
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@KiwiInLondon said in Highlanders 2025:
@Bones his decision making is absolutely atrocious. The chip and cross fields kicks in pressure situations, the miss tackles. I could go on
I haven't been watching NPC unfortunately. The way it was phrased sounded more like dickhead off the field than awful decision maker.
